Gabe Davis - deep stat improvement

[GunnerBill]

14 hours ago, PBF81 said:

Given Beane's track record with WRs, Davis being the best, ironically, I'm not convinced that happens.  Also, as pointed out, Waddle and Higgins were top-10 picks.  We won't be picking until the low 20s.  

 

 

 

Higgins wasn't a top 10 pick. He was pick #33. Day 2, pick 1. 

 

Davis is the best receiver Beane has selected. He is also the earliest receiver Beane has selected. Never picked one on day 1 or 2. 

 

Otherwise.... I actually agree with a lot of what you have said in this thread. People are looking for the perfect #2 and Davis isn't it, but he is a decent #2 level receiver who in terms of touchdown production out produces a lot of his peers. The idea that is simple, or straightforward, to upgrade him is for the birds. It would certainly be expensive to use FA to do so. 

 

All that being said, given Diggs is coming up towards 30 I'd definitely be open to letting Davis walk and spending a 1st round pick on a receiver who will be cheap while Diggs's hit is still on the books and then hopefully can grow into the #1 role by year 3. I still believe had Jordan Addison made it to the Bills last year they'd have taken him, even over and above Kincaid. Everything I heard suggested they loved that kid. And therein lies the issue - when you are picking in the mid to late 20s (or even early 30s 🙏) - you need a guy who is capable of growing into a #1 level receiver to be there. Even in last year's class which wasn't the strongest WR draft ever the 4 guys who most felt could be first round types - Addison, JSN, Flowers and Johnston - all came off the board together in a run in the early 20s. 

[Process]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Higgins wasn't a top 10 pick. He was pick #33. Day 2, pick 1. 

 

Davis is the best receiver Beane has selected. He is also the earliest receiver Beane has selected. Never picked one on day 1 or 2. 

 

Otherwise.... I actually agree with a lot of what you have said in this thread. People are looking for the perfect #2 and Davis isn't it, but he is a decent #2 level receiver who in terms of touchdown production out produces a lot of his peers. The idea that is simple, or straightforward, to upgrade him is for the birds. It would certainly be expensive to use FA to do so. 

 

All that being said, given Diggs is coming up towards 30 I'd definitely be open to letting Davis walk and spending a 1st round pick on a receiver who will be cheap while Diggs's hit is still on the books and then hopefully can grow into the #1 role by year 3. I still believe had Jordan Addison made it to the Bills last year they'd have taken him, even over and above Kincaid. Everything I heard suggested they loved that kid. And therein lies the issue - when you are picking in the mid to late 20s (or even early 30s 🙏) - you need a guy who is capable of growing into a #1 level receiver to be there. Even in last year's class which wasn't the strongest WR draft ever the 4 guys who most felt could be first round types - Addison, JSN, Flowers and Johnston - all came off the board together in a run in the early 20s. 

How is next year's class looking at WR compared to last year? Obviously there is Harrison but more in terms of depth for late round 1/round 2?

[GunnerBill]

19 hours ago, FireChans said:

I'll have to look and see if anyone has numerical breakdown, but to my eye he's still out wide a lot more than in-line.

 

 

Total 167 snaps on offense

 

Alignment

Backfield 1

Inline 51

Slot 79

Wide 36

 

Usage

Running routes 112

Pass block 1

Run block 54

 

I don't have the game by game breakdown but he was asked to chip and block a LOT in the Washington game. Otherwise he has been mainly split out running routes.

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Process said:

How is next year's class looking at WR compared to last year? Obviously there is Harrison but more in terms of depth for late round 1/round 2?

 

I think there is more outside depth than last year. 2023 was the draft of the slot receiver. Flowers has split his time so far inside and slot, JSN has been almost exclusively slot and Addison while mainly outside has done some slot too. I think this will be a better class up top for teams wanting true outside type receivers. 

[PBF81]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Higgins wasn't a top 10 pick. He was pick #33. Day 2, pick 1. 

 

Davis is the best receiver Beane has selected. He is also the earliest receiver Beane has selected. Never picked one on day 1 or 2. 

 

Otherwise.... I actually agree with a lot of what you have said in this thread. People are looking for the perfect #2 and Davis isn't it, but he is a decent #2 level receiver who in terms of touchdown production out produces a lot of his peers. The idea that is simple, or straightforward, to upgrade him is for the birds. It would certainly be expensive to use FA to do so. 

 

All that being said, given Diggs is coming up towards 30 I'd definitely be open to letting Davis walk and spending a 1st round pick on a receiver who will be cheap while Diggs's hit is still on the books and then hopefully can grow into the #1 role by year 3. I still believe had Jordan Addison made it to the Bills last year they'd have taken him, even over and above Kincaid. Everything I heard suggested they loved that kid. And therein lies the issue - when you are picking in the mid to late 20s (or even early 30s 🙏) - you need a guy who is capable of growing into a #1 level receiver to be there. Even in last year's class which wasn't the strongest WR draft ever the 4 guys who most felt could be first round types - Addison, JSN, Flowers and Johnston - all came off the board together in a run in the early 20s. 

 

Yeah, thanks, I confused Higgins with one of the other four in not paying attention.  I originally posted all their draft spots.  The point stands though as you noted. 

 

That's a very sound strategy.  I would concur although I haven't given much thought to the post-Diggs era til now.  It's a bit sobering.  

 

As always, none of us have any control over it, LOL, we'll see how it shakes out and how for the best.  

 

With any luck, this season's fast start with be sustained and we'll finally win that elusive prize.  

 

 

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Total 167 snaps on offense

 

Alignment

Backfield 1

Inline 51

Slot 79

Wide 36

 

Usage

Running routes 112

Pass block 1

Run block 54

 

I don't have the game by game breakdown but he was asked to chip and block a LOT in the Washington game. Otherwise he has been mainly split out running routes.

 

Where do you get the alignment data?

 

 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Where do you get the alignment data?

 

 

 

PFF

[FireChans]

21 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Higgins wasn't a top 10 pick. He was pick #33. Day 2, pick 1. 

 

Davis is the best receiver Beane has selected. He is also the earliest receiver Beane has selected. Never picked one on day 1 or 2. 

 

Otherwise.... I actually agree with a lot of what you have said in this thread. People are looking for the perfect #2 and Davis isn't it, but he is a decent #2 level receiver who in terms of touchdown production out produces a lot of his peers. The idea that is simple, or straightforward, to upgrade him is for the birds. It would certainly be expensive to use FA to do so. 

 

All that being said, given Diggs is coming up towards 30 I'd definitely be open to letting Davis walk and spending a 1st round pick on a receiver who will be cheap while Diggs's hit is still on the books and then hopefully can grow into the #1 role by year 3. I still believe had Jordan Addison made it to the Bills last year they'd have taken him, even over and above Kincaid. Everything I heard suggested they loved that kid. And therein lies the issue - when you are picking in the mid to late 20s (or even early 30s 🙏) - you need a guy who is capable of growing into a #1 level receiver to be there. Even in last year's class which wasn't the strongest WR draft ever the 4 guys who most felt could be first round types - Addison, JSN, Flowers and Johnston - all came off the board together in a run in the early 20s. 

Agree with a lot of this. My whole point has been that waiting until Davis walks to go to the well of drafting a WR may bite us next season. 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, FireChans said:

Agree with a lot of this. My whole point has been that waiting until Davis walks to go to the well of drafting a WR may bite us next season. 

 

It might. I would have drafted Christian Watson in 2022 where we took Elam personally. I know he has had issues staying healthy so that doesn't look like it would have been a slam dunk but he has been dangerous when on the field. In 2023 they ended up without a seat when the music stopped in the first round. After that it wasn't a great class and the opportunity never presented. 

[PBF81]

52 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It might. I would have drafted Christian Watson in 2022 where we took Elam personally. I know he has had issues staying healthy so that doesn't look like it would have been a slam dunk but he has been dangerous when on the field. In 2023 they ended up without a seat when the music stopped in the first round. After that it wasn't a great class and the opportunity never presented. 

 

Which raises another point, gotta "go to the well" in a season rich with WRing talent.  Already expressed, simply reiterating.  

 

That's the hallmark of a good GM, or one of 'em, forecast your needs in advance, and take advantage of position-rich drafts.  

 

 

[DCofNC]

3 hours ago, mjt328 said:

Gabe Davis is a good #2.  He's had some drop problems.  He's made some very impressive catches.  Overall, not on the same level is Tee Higgins, Jaylen Waddle, Devonte Smith, etc.  But when healthy, he's better than what most teams have in that spot.

 

The key for our offense is... if teams put the extra focus on Stefon Diggs, do we have other options that are capable of stepping up and producing?  A couple years ago, the answer was mostly yes (with Cole Beasley working the slot).  Last year, the answer was mostly no.  That's one of the main reasons we struggled in the second half of the season.

 

So far this season, we have a strong running game.  We have several short options in Dawson Knox, Dalton Kincaid, etc.  The times we've called on Davis, he's done well.  We've gotten a few nice plays from the #3-5 guys too.  Outside of Week 1, Josh Allen is spreading the ball around and taking what the defense gives him.  It's working pretty well.

 

Right now, I'm satisfied with Davis as #2.  Now if Diggs gets hurt, it may be a completely different story.  But right now, I think we have enough weapons to continue playing well on offense.  As far as signing an extension, I think Beane would be able to find similar production at a cheaper price.

 

I just don’t agree with your take.   He’s a good #3.  I’d liken him to MVS before any real #2.  Through the circumstances of no legitimate competition, he owns the #2 spot.    An upgrade is desperately needed and Beane knows it.  He signed Sanders as a stop gap, he tried to bring in Bease and Smoke to catch lightning in a bottle last year.  He was in the OBJ and D-Hop competition.  It’s no secret to anybody with unbiased eyes, the Bills have no  real talent at WR beyond Diggs.   They have a #1 a #3 a #4-5 and a bunch of gadgets.  
 

There’s a real hole at 2.  They almost had to switch the style of offense to accommodate for it and the dispersal of the ball shows it clear as day.  It’s Diggs by a wide margin, then Kincaid/Davis, sprinkle in so Knox, and everyone else who happens to be on the right route for the progressions.   The issue is, somebody in that Kincaid/Davis/Knox group is going to have to step up or teams will take away Diggs and our old system wasn’t going to move the ball.  So far this year, we are seeing a genuine commitment to the run and the TEs are getting involved.  They need some deeper patterns for the TEs to make the seams more of a trouble spot for D’s, but it’s a big change.   It had to be done because you don’t have the talent to do what they were trying to force that last few years.   It’s actually going to  be a great change come Dec, when that vertical attack struggled. 

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It might. I would have drafted Christian Watson in 2022 where we took Elam personally. I know he has had issues staying healthy so that doesn't look like it would have been a slam dunk but he has been dangerous when on the field. In 2023 they ended up without a seat when the music stopped in the first round. After that it wasn't a great class and the opportunity never presented. 

When we have Laquon Treadwell 2.0 running opposite Stefon next year, I’m gonna be so mad.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

You're arguing stats in a game where they had only 3 points over halfway through the 4th quarter? If the Rams had any semblance of an offense in that game, they would have won easily. Gronk was still good, yeah, but he was nowhere near as productive -- and as importantly, as fast -- at that point as earlier in his career. I view him as the best TE ever, but he wasn't the same by that point. And Cole Beasley likely would have put up the same numbers as Edelman if he had the GOAT throwing to him. I am convinced of that.  James White was their leader in receptions that year. People don't give Brady the credit he deserves. He's the best ever, and he made receivers rather than the reverse. He had only two studs over the course of his career - Moss for a short window and Gronk. 

 

The Pats elevated their game in the playoffs and pulled off one of the greater upsets in AFCCG history..........a big part of that was having two stud receiving threats(who played outstanding, btw) thru the playoffs.   And they needed it in that track meet with the Chiefs.   That Rams team they beat also had stud receivers and didn't score in that SB, btw......sometimes defense rules a certain day.    Nobody is arguing that every SB has been a track meet.   And no,  Cole Beasley was not as good of a football player as Julian Edelman.  As much as we hated him he was a great player for a few years and that was in the middle of that stretch.