Gabe Davis - deep stat improvement

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

Of course, if you can get a sure handed outlet like JuJu for $3.5M the Bills should go out and do that.

 

So JuJu was somewhat of an outlier in the group I'm talking about. I went back and found my examples of #2 pass catching targets in the last 6 Super Bowls:

 

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Devonta Smith

Tee Higgins

OBJ

Chris Godwin (in an almost dead heat with Rob Gronkowski)

Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill

Deebo Samuel

Julian Edelman

Brandin Cooks

Zach Ertz

Rob Gronkowski

 

Again, I don't think there's any reasonable disagreement that the above players were better pass catchers than Gabe Davis in those respective seasons.

 

The difference with JuJu is he was a cheap FA signing. Most of the players on that list were drafted by that team. The Chiefs kind of got lucky, because of course they did. They signed a previously very good but oft-injured WR to a 1 year prove it deal and it paid off big time. We signed Jamison Crowder and got nothing.

 

I hear you on the big WR2 contract. With Allen and Diggs it probably isn't feasible. We have simply neglected the position in the draft. But my point has been that every team who makes it to the Super Bowl in recent history has had not just a top tier #1 pass catcher, but a very good #2 as well. We are lagging behind in that area.

[HomeskillitMoorman]

Gabe is fine for what he is, he just never developed into a real #2. Doesn't get open enough to be that. 

 

That's our issue against top defenses. If they double or cover Diggs well, the other guys just don't get open enough. It is still something that concerns me about the playoffs. 

[dave mcbride]

13 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

So JuJu was somewhat of an outlier in the group I'm talking about. I went back and found my examples of #2 pass catching targets in the last 6 Super Bowls:

 

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Devonta Smith

Tee Higgins

OBJ

Chris Godwin (in an almost dead heat with Rob Gronkowski)

Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill

Deebo Samuel

Julian Edelman

Brandin Cooks

Zach Ertz

Rob Gronkowski

 

Again, I don't think there's any reasonable disagreement that the above players were better pass catchers than Gabe Davis in those respective seasons.

 

The difference with JuJu is he was a cheap FA signing. Most of the players on that list were drafted by that team. The Chiefs kind of got lucky, because of course they did. They signed a previously very good but oft-injured WR to a 1 year prove it deal and it paid off big time. We signed Jamison Crowder and got nothing.

 

I hear you on the big WR2 contract. With Allen and Diggs it probably isn't feasible. We have simply neglected the position in the draft. But my point has been that every team who makes it to the Super Bowl in recent history has had not just a top tier #1 pass catcher, but a very good #2 as well. We are lagging behind in that area.

Let's see where Kincaid is by the end of the season. I have a hunch they've cooked up some bigger plays for him that'll show up as the season progresses. He's on pace for 64 catches and has caught 15 of the 17 balls thrown his way. The success rate is 70.6 percent, which is really good. The ypc is low, but I don't expect that to stay static given what I know about his game.  I expect we'll see him getting an increasing number of targets as we get into the second half of the season.

Edited October 3, 2023 by dave mcbride

[HappyDays]

10 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Let's see where Kincaid is by the end of the season. I have a hunch they've cooked up some bigger plays for him that'll show up as the season progresses. He's on pace for 64 catches and has caught 15 of the 17 balls thrown his way. The success rate is 70.6 percent, which is really good. The ypc is low, but I don't expect that to stay static given what I know about his game.  I expect we'll see him getting an increasing number of targets as we get into the second half of the season.

 

I'm a huge fan of Kincaid and I think he has a great future here. But I want our #2 to be someone that can be relied upon if a defense takes away Diggs. Not to the same caliber as Diggs obviously, just enough so that our offense isn't totally handicapped in those situations. I haven't seen anything from Kincaid so far that makes me think he can be that guy yet. Right now he is a role player, not someone we can funnel the offense through.

[dave mcbride]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm a huge fan of Kincaid and I think he has a great future here. But I want our #2 to be someone that can be relied upon if a defense takes away Diggs. Not to the same caliber as Diggs obviously, just enough so that our offense isn't totally handicapped in those situations. I haven't seen anything from Kincaid so far that makes me think he can be that guy yet. Right now he is a role player, not someone we can funnel the offense through.

I hear you, but we have only played four games. I think they're gradually incorporating him into the offense by giving him a lot of early (and to be fair easy) successes. But he's too good at seam routes and getting open for that to remain under wraps for too long. At a certain point, I expect to see them expand his route tree through deeper routes. 

[Mango]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

All true and reasonable.

 

And a lot of what you are buying when you pay an elite QB is the chance to be wildly successful without spending tons and tons on WRs. Look at Brady. Mahomes. Rodgers. There are certainly some exceptions, but when you are paying a top 6 or 7 QB, you have a lot less money to work with, and so you tend to expect your QB to be really really effective with less.

 

Further upthread I posted the breakdown of the last couple cap implications of pass catchers. I was on my phone in bed so there was a little bit of wonky math. It is minimal. That is a very important part of the equation. Something to consider when you talk about the cap situation in KC is that Kelce is a TE and gets paid like a great TE, not a great receiver. It makes a difference.

 

Here is a quick summary with cap$ and cap% just because total cap dollars has some peaks and plateaus with COVID.

 

The Bills are in a good spot (this year) in terms of cap allocation. Upgrading Davis is a reasonable conversation. But not at any real cost. 

 

34 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

So JuJu was somewhat of an outlier in the group I'm talking about. I went back and found my examples of #2 pass catching targets in the last 6 Super Bowls:

 

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Devonta Smith

Tee Higgins

OBJ

Chris Godwin (in an almost dead heat with Rob Gronkowski)

Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill

Deebo Samuel

Julian Edelman

Brandin Cooks

Zach Ertz

Rob Gronkowski

 

Again, I don't think there's any reasonable disagreement that the above players were better pass catchers than Gabe Davis in those respective seasons.

 

The difference with JuJu is he was a cheap FA signing. Most of the players on that list were drafted by that team. The Chiefs kind of got lucky, because of course they did. They signed a previously very good but oft-injured WR to a 1 year prove it deal and it paid off big time. We signed Jamison Crowder and got nothing.

 

I hear you on the big WR2 contract. With Allen and Diggs it probably isn't feasible. We have simply neglected the position in the draft. But my point has been that every team who makes it to the Super Bowl in recent history has had not just a top tier #1 pass catcher, but a very good #2 as well. We are lagging behind in that area.

 

You are sort of just naming names without telling the whole story. They are good, and better than Davis, but you can't talk about value without talking about their cost when they won those games. Almost all of those guys were on cheap and/or rookie contracts. 

There is no paying a 1a/1b receiver while winning a championship. 

At some point the secondary outlet is about the QB spreading the ball around and putting the right athletes in the proper position to succeed. as much as it is about the guys playing the position.

Edited October 3, 2023 by Mango

[Billsfan1972]

17 hours ago, Mango said:

Honestly this is the way it should be. The offense every week should be 6-10 targets to Diggs and 25 targets to 6 other receivers. We have sucked at spreading the ball around. 
 

I’ve never been a huge proponent of 1a/1b. You need a guy and a bunch of “pretty good” to spread the defense out. 

6-10 Targets only?????  Geez could you imaging how pissed any elite receiver would be with only 8/game?  Should be a minimum 10/gm.

 

As for Gabe, he has averaged 3 catches/game.  51 receptions for the year would have ranked him 75th in the league!!!!!

 

But geez only 48 last year (33rd in yards).

 

BTW Zay Jones had 82 catches last year.🤪

 

Need way more from him.

Edited October 3, 2023 by Billsfan1972

[eball]

7 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Need way more from him

Damn skippy. The way we’ve had to white-knuckle these last three weeks is wearing me down…

 

[NoSaint]

14 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yeah, I don't get it either.  

 

He's got 3 TDs in four games, and his detractors give everyone but him credit.  I mean what does he have to do.  

 

Of his 12 catches, 11 have gone for 1st-Downs or TDs, with the 1st-Downs contributing to scoring drives, I think in every case.  Most teams would be happy to have a WR do that.  

 

He's on pace for 935 yards and 12 TDs, which by last season's standards would have put him at 24th for receiving yards and tied with Kelce for 2nd in receiving TDs.  24th!  2nd for TDs!  

 

But he's not good enough.  It's mindboggling.  

 

SMH  

 

 

it’s not hard to connect the dots- 

 

he’s had struggles

 

and often it feels like he’s producing in spite of himself not because of his skill. He’s not outrunning guys, he’s not agile enough to be a great route runner. He doesn’t tend to be the most physical getting the ball.
 

In a great offense it often seems he’s a beneficiary of the stress the unit puts on the defense instead of being a stressor himself. 
 

put another way- the production floor for a full time wr2 in this unit is pretty high even if you plug a WR4-5 into the role. In a big moment I don’t know that we ever see them scheme up gabe Davis as the target 

Edited October 3, 2023 by NoSaint

[HappyDays]

19 minutes ago, Mango said:

You are sort of just naming names without telling the whole story. They are good, and better than Davis, but you can't talk about value without talking about their cost when they won those games. Almost all of those guys were on cheap and/or rookie contracts. 

 

That's what I addressed in the last part of my post. I don't know if it's feasible to pay a true WR1 and WR2 at the same time. But irrespective of that it is hard to argue with the evidence that a very good and versatile #2 is seemingly a necessity for a Super Bowl contender. It's hard to figure out a solution to that problem in October. I hope Beane will try though.

[Billsfan1972]

1 minute ago, eball said:

Damn skippy. The way we’ve had to white-knuckle these last three weeks is wearing me down…

 

Again not the point.  What did he do in week one (two catches, four targets)?

 

As the #2 stats should be better with Allen as the QB.  Regardless as I pointed out he is right at his 2022 #'s, which weren't great.  

[Mango]

4 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

6-10 Targets only?????  Geez could you imaging how pissed any elite receiver would be with only 8/game?  Should be a minimum 10/gm.

 

As for Gabe, he has averaged 3 catches/game.  51 receptions for the year would have ranked him 75th in the league!!!!!

 

Need way more from him.

 

I know your heat says that is the way to win a championship but that isn't the case. 

Lets call "at least 10 targets per game" 12 for arguments sake. 12 targets per game would be 204 and the second most in NFL history. Even if you account for the extra game, 193 targets would be the 8th most targets in league history. Also not an attainable goal. 

Out of the top 25 most targeted receivers in a single season only one of them won a championship that year. Cooper Kupp in 2021.

 

I would prefer to have Diggs be "the guy" with 100-ish catches  on 150 targets and a ton of guys in the 30-50 catch range then force the ball to Diggs 204 times one guy with 60 catches and everybody else with 20. 

For reference, since 2000 there have only been 5 times a team has one the SB with a receiver in the top 5 for receptions, and only another 4 with a receiver in the top 10. 

[Big Blitz]

 

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, Mango said:

since 2000 there have only been 5 times a team has one the SB with a receiver in the top 5 for receptions

 

2000 is ancient history. So is pretty much every year before the latest generation of elite QBs. In 3 of the 4 seasons the Super Bowl winner has had a pass catcher in the top 8 of receptions.

 

2022 - Chiefs - Kelce #3

2021 - Rams - Kupp #1

2020 - Bucs - Evans #33

2019 - Chiefs - Kelce #8

 

These days there are too many elite QBs. An offense needs an edge somewhere else. In recent years that edge has been pass catchers, and to somewhat of a lesser extent the offensive line.

[Billsfan1972]

4 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I know your heat says that is the way to win a championship but that isn't the case. 

Lets call "at least 10 targets per game" 12 for arguments sake. 12 targets per game would be 204 and the second most in NFL history. Even if you account for the extra game, 193 targets would be the 8th most targets in league history. Also not an attainable goal. 

Out of the top 25 most targeted receivers in a single season only one of them won a championship that year. Cooper Kupp in 2021.

 

I would prefer to have Diggs be "the guy" with 100-ish catches  on 150 targets and a ton of guys in the 30-50 catch range then force the ball to Diggs 204 times one guy with 60 catches and everybody else with 20. 

For reference, since 2000 there have only been 5 times a team has one the SB with a receiver in the top 5 for receptions, and only another 4 with a receiver in the top 10. 

The top receivers are all about 9-10 and that better include Diggs.  And this is Josh Allen a the qb.

 

Quick stat 2022 Mahomes completed 265 passes to WR's, Burrow 242, Herbert 260, Hurts 231, Goff 233, Cousins 275, Brady 297 & Allen only 225. 

 

The Bills #1 weapon is Allen, use him. 

[AlfaBill]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Again, this is simply a dumb argument. His stats show extremely clearly that he's a #2. No, not a great #2, but it isn't even a question that he's a #2.

 

#3 WRs don't end up in the top 20 in TDs and the top 40 in yards, they just don't. And Gabe was that high last year and is higher so far this year.

Let me ask you this. Would you trust him to make a game changing catch? A last second TD for a SB win? I wouldn’t. 

[dave mcbride]

26 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

2000 is ancient history. So is pretty much every year before the latest generation of elite QBs. In 3 of the 4 seasons the Super Bowl winner has had a pass catcher in the top 8 of receptions.

 

2022 - Chiefs - Kelce #3

2021 - Rams - Kupp #1

2020 - Bucs - Evans #33

2019 - Chiefs - Kelce #8

 

These days there are too many elite QBs. An offense needs an edge somewhere else. In recent years that edge has been pass catchers, and to somewhat of a lesser extent the offensive line.

It's arguable -- and I'd in fact argue it -- that the 2018 Patriots had neither a #1 nor a #2 receiver. They had a slot receiver, an aging TE who had lost a step, a troubled former #1 who didn't last the season, and a bunch of jags. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2018.htm

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

Further upthread I posted the breakdown of the last couple cap implications of pass catchers. I was on my phone in bed so there was a little bit of wonky math. It is minimal. That is a very important part of the equation. Something to consider when you talk about the cap situation in KC is that Kelce is a TE and gets paid like a great TE, not a great receiver. It makes a difference.

 

Here is a quick summary with cap$ and cap% just because total cap dollars has some peaks and plateaus with COVID.

 

The Bills are in a good spot (this year) in terms of cap allocation. Upgrading Davis is a reasonable conversation. But not at any real cost. 

 

 

You are sort of just naming names without telling the whole story. They are good, and better than Davis, but you can't talk about value without talking about their cost when they won those games. Almost all of those guys were on cheap and/or rookie contracts. 

There is no paying a 1a/1b receiver while winning a championship. 

At some point the secondary outlet is about the QB spreading the ball around and putting the right athletes in the proper position to succeed. as much as it is about the guys playing the position.

That's pretty much the whole point of "we need to draft another WR high" angle that some folks, myself included, have been banging for about 2 years.

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I'm a huge fan of Kincaid and I think he has a great future here. But I want our #2 to be someone that can be relied upon if a defense takes away Diggs. Not to the same caliber as Diggs obviously, just enough so that our offense isn't totally handicapped in those situations. I haven't seen anything from Kincaid so far that makes me think he can be that guy yet. Right now he is a role player, not someone we can funnel the offense through.

One other thing of note: the TEs have caught 24 balls this year, which puts them on pace for 102 receptions. In my long career as a Bills fan, the Bills' have never come close that reception production from that position. The closest I can recall was 73 catches in 1993.  So this is a very different Buffalo Bills squad in an important way. 

Edited October 3, 2023 by dave mcbride

[eball]

45 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

Again not the point.  What did he do in week one (two catches, four targets)?

 

As the #2 stats should be better with Allen as the QB.  Regardless as I pointed out he is right at his 2022 #'s, which weren't great.  

 

There are more weapons around him and the Bills are running the ball more.  He has scored in each of the last three games.

 

As others have noted, there is no need to have a "traditional" #1, #2, #3 target, but some fans can't get this notion out of their heads.  I haven't heard Gabe complain about his targets and Josh leads the league in completion percentage.  Good grief, they must fix this, and fast!  The #HateGabeDavis movement must continue!