Gabe Davis - deep stat improvement

[Thurman#1]

Just now, boater said:

Gabe's OK. Not really good, just OK. His numbers are due to Diggs being double covered and the D's confliction when covering two TE.

 

 

No, they're not. He had the same kinds of numbers last year when we didn't have two TEs.

 

And yeah, Diggs is often doubled, though not always. But it's not like he's the only guy in the league this happens to. Plus, we're generally getting two deep safety coverages against us. When Gabe goes deep, and he often does, he generally gets the safety drifting over the top as well.

 

Fair enough Ds are more worried about Diggs than Davis, certainly. But that doesn't mean he's an afterthought.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

15 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I don't think the numbers tell us much at all........still looks like the same guy to the eye test.

 

My belief has been that less targets would make him more efficient.........and I could easily say the lower amount of targets and better catch % support that.........but 18 targets with 1 drop and 2 interceptions thrown his way is still enough of a mixed bag for such a small sample size.

 

 

 

 

2 interceptions thrown his way... I know it shows on his stats but... neither of them was on him. 

[Motorin']

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah and just like we can hope that the lack of a better second receiving option doesn't stop them cold in January............. in the past there has always been the hope that the Bills highly ranked defense could bully their way to the SB and that remains a possibility as well (though their heavily invested-in defenses have been shredded in the playoffs multiple times now).

 

Bottom line is that they are trying to buck a pretty significant trend with Davis.

 

I think it's fair to say the Bills are easing Kincaid into the offense. But he is second on the team in receptions, with just one more than Davis. So it looks more like a 1 & 2a/2b approach than 1a/1b. At least from a target perspective. 

 

And sure Kincaid's 6.6 yards per catch is a far stretch from what you want in a #2 receiver. But his 88% catch percentage is... something. He's on pace for 72 targets. This could expand in the second half of the season as the rookie gets more comfortable. 

 

What I haven't noticed many people point out is that Cook is on par in pass targets with Davis, and is actually doubling the total touches that Diggs has, while producing slightly more yards. 

 

The offense runs through Cook and Diggs now. With Davis and Kincaid potentially playing the 2a/2b role. 

 

 

[Mango]

9 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I've posted the examples before, not gonna go back now and find them again. But if you look at the #2 target pass catcher on each of the last 12 teams to participate in the Super Bowl, every one of them has been a better player than Davis. JuJu Smith-Schuster is probably the worst of that group and he had a 1,400 yard season not that long ago. By the time playoff football rolls around you're bound to face a defense that takes away your #1 guy. So who steps up? Right now for the Bills I'm not confident in anybody to be that answer.

 

But Allen and Diggs individually and as a combo are playing the best football of their lives right now. If they keep it up and the pass protection continues to impress, I could see us being the exception. January is a long way away though. It's still a nagging concern in my mind.

 

I am not saying you don't want quality receivers. Or even a solid second option. A big part of what I am referring to is the last season or two where the board has been filled with "Pay (insert start receiver) $15M per year. Every team is doing it." Of course, if you can get a sure handed outlet like JuJu for $3.5M the Bills should go out and do that. Hell, let Davis walk and grab a guy in the first this year. The roster is fairly complete and it is likely a cheap upgrade.

 

Equitable distribution has been the name of the game for some time. There is certainly a cost formula to the whole thing that needs to be adhered to as well. Spreading the ball out is something we have sucked at for a while now. Some of that is on the GM, some of it is on the OC, and some of that is on the QB. I think it is a big part of why the OL and running game looks better as well. It relieves a lot of pressure from everybody. I think it is a more complicated solution than "get a second receiver". 
 

To your point about having a second option when Diggs is taken away, in the only game Diggs didn't have 100 yards this year, Davis went 6/7 for 92 and a TD. He has had some ups and downs, but he did step up FWIW.  He had himself a bit of a day on Josh's second best game of the season.I think if Davis/Diggs cannot get it done on a given week the combo of Knox and Kincade can likely pick up the slack. Which is also part of the secret sauce for guys who are repeatedly winning SB's.

I am happy we are getting better at it. A big portion of the credit for that goes to Josh and Dorsey. 

 

 

[Low Positive]

You know what's crazy right now? There is not a single KC Chief in the top 50 in receiving yards through 4 games and they're 3-1.

[PBF81]

26 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Great players like Diggs can sometimes be taken out of the game with double teams.

 

Gabe doesn't have that excuse.

 

That wasn't the question and that's not what you said.  

 

Diggs makes $24M per year and cost us a 1st-Round pick and another.  

 

Davis was a 4th-Round pick that makes less than $1M/season, which is ridiculous for what he does.  

 

This isn't a serious two-way discussion at this point.  You're simply looking for random things to defend a preexisting position.  

 

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

53 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

The Miami game helped him, prior to that his catch % was in the mid 50s after his 1-for-4 catch performance the week before. 

 

He's a deeper target, his catch % is always lower because when you throw the ball 15-20 yards down the field its easier to miss the throw.   

[BADOLBILZ]

10 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Again, this is simply a dumb argument. His stats show extremely clearly that he's a #2. No, not a great #2, but it isn't even a question that he's a #2.

 

#3 WRs don't end up in the top 20 in TDs and the top 40 in yards, they just don't. And Gabe was that high last year and is higher so far this year.

 

He is definitely an adequate some-system #2 WR for a non-contender.

 

He couldn't even make the 53 man roster for teams like Miami or San Fran though because he is useless in the short passing game.   He can't even use his size to catch slants because he can't catch the ball in traffic or after contact.    

 

So the people who just point to his modest stats in an offense with a top 3 QB can try to spin it all they want..........but a guy with huge holes in his game like Gabe isn't a WR2 in all systems.

5 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

I think it's fair to say the Bills are easing Kincaid into the offense. But he is second on the team in receptions, with just one more than Davis. So it looks more like a 1 & 2a/2b approach than 1a/1b. At least from a target perspective. 

 

And sure Kincaid's 6.6 yards per catch is a far stretch from what you want in a #2 receiver. But his 88% catch percentage is... something. He's on pace for 72 targets. This could expand in the second half of the season as the rookie gets more comfortable. 

 

What I haven't noticed many people point out is that Cook is on par in pass targets with Davis, and is actually doubling the total touches that Diggs has, while producing slightly more yards. 

 

The offense runs through Cook and Diggs now. With Davis and Kincaid potentially playing the 2a/2b role. 

 

 

 

 

Yeah Kincaid is their best hope to alleviate the issue on the roster.   

 

Said if many times.........they need to get Gabe down to about 4 targets per game.    And to do that they need a more reliable second option.   Almost there but if Kincaid doesn't start upping his production then the better teams on the schedule will still be able to bracket Diggs and force the ball to Davis.

[BADOLBILZ]

6 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

That wasn't the question and that's not what you said.  

 

Diggs makes $24M per year and cost us a 1st-Round pick and another.  

 

Davis was a 4th-Round pick that makes less than $1M/season, which is ridiculous for what he does.  

 

This isn't a serious two-way discussion at this point.  You're simply looking for random things to defend a preexisting position.  

 

 

 

 

Hey I have nothing personal against Gabe Davis........he was  a great value draft pick and makes an excellent 3rd option for a QB like Josh Allen.

 

But he's limited.

 

Not having a better WR2 option isn't his fault.......he works hard and maximizes his potential IMO............that's just on the Bills for not putting him in the best position to not end up a scapegoat.   

 

 

[PBF81]

25 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

You literally posted that Davis was on pace for 900 yards so I pointed out the relative insignificance or your projection..........I wasn't the one who started the "on pace" narrative that was you.    You get that right?   You stop taking your meds? 

 

Again, this isn't even a serioud discussion anymore, it's simply you throwing up all the crap that you can for the sole purpose of defending an indefensible pre-determined position.  

 

I've also ignored your ridiculous and false premises, but since you want facts, let's address your "facts" given that you're throwing them up against mine. 

 

To start, Davis was never on pace for 1,300+ yards thru 4 games last season.  He was inactive in game 2 for starters.  So if you count only games 1, 3, and 4 otherwise, he had 138 Yards and 1 TD.  How that translates to 1,300+ yards you'll have to explain to everyone.  

 

But, seeing what you presumably meant, I'll factor in that 171 yard 2 TD game in week 5.  That's just under a third of the season, injured BTW, and 309 yards and 3 TDs.  About what he has now and still not a pace for 1,300+.

 

Either way, you're being entirely disingenuous here and there's no sense in continuing this discussion if this is all you're going to do.  

 

The point that I made, clearly, was how the entire team overachieved early on last season, and I cited two player examples.  

 

Which brings up another relevant point, and something that concerns me.  The past two seasons we've approached the first part of the season as if going 6-0 was the championship.  Then things leveled off, and ulimately we choked in the playoffs.  

 

It should be more than a bit concerning that we may slow down again, particularly defensively speaking.  IMO, again my opinion, the offense will only continue to gel and get better, with Davis being a huge part of that on that note.  But I do expect the defense to taper off significantly as we play better offenses. 

 

Everyone's cheering McD at how much better he is than Frazier, and while I am reserving judgment until more games have been played, he's allowed over 100 total yards per game through the first four games than Frazier did, and a comparable number of points.  55 this season, 58 last.  Negligible there.  But the over 400 more total yards allowed is hardly negligible.  That's nearly 2,000 yards for the season extrapolated out. 

 

We'd better hope that changes or it could be problematic.  It's not as if we've played top-10 offenses, except for Miami, who put up 393 total on us.  

 

Anyway, you've ignored just about every direct question I've asked on this topic and you clearly have an agenda re: Davis.  So be it.  Time, this season, will bear out what is the case. 

 

Dismiss 3 TDs, and more 1st-Downs than anyone but Diggs and Cook if you want to, but you're being ridiculous to suggest that it's not incredibly instrumental in our scoring in games, and therefore winning them.  

 

And honestly, if that's your standard, then every other player we have besides Diggs and Cook must absolutely suck moose oysters.  

 

 

5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Hey I have nothing personal against Gabe Davis........he was  a great value draft pick and makes an excellent 3rd option for a QB like Josh Allen.

 

But he's limited.

 

Not having a better WR2 option isn't his fault.......he works hard and maximizes his potential IMO............that's just on the Bills for not putting him in the best position to not end up a scapegoat.   

 

Every player has limitations with few exceptions, and those players end up in the Hall of Fame.  

 

That doesn't alter his playoff performances or what and how he's contributed.  I'd say that they're using him pretty optimally.  What, he's gonna play slot or something?  What, short wheel-routes?  He's a deep WR.  That's what he's used for.  Getting on/about 1,000 yards and 10+/- TDs from a WR like that is anything but chump change.  

 

In that role, if he had 10 targets I'd be quite concerned about our entire offensive approach.  But he "stretches the field" to cite a cliche.  

 

I appreciate your what I see as relinquishing on the argument somewhat.  

 

Let's see how the season plays out and render further conclusions at that time.  

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

6 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Again, this isn't even a serioud discussion anymore, it's simply you throwing up all the crap that you can for the sole purpose of defending an indefensible pre-determined position.  

 

I've also ignored your ridiculous and false premises, but since you want facts, let's address your "facts" given that you're throwing them up against mine. 

 

To start, Davis was never on pace for 1,300+ yards thru 4 games last season.  He was inactive in game 2 for starters.  So if you count only games 1, 3, and 4 otherwise, he had 138 Yards and 1 TD.  How that translates to 1,300+ yards you'll have to explain to everyone.  

 

But, seeing what you presumably meant, I'll factor in that 171 yard 2 TD game in week 5.  That's just under a third of the season, injured BTW, and 309 yards and 3 TDs.  About what he has now and still not a pace for 1,300+.

 

Either way, you're being entirely disingenuous here and there's no sense in continuing this discussion if this is all you're going to do.  

 

The point that I made, clearly, was how the entire team overachieved early on last season, and I cited two player examples.  

 

Which brings up another relevant point, and something that concerns me.  The past two seasons we've approached the first part of the season as if going 6-0 was the championship.  Then things leveled off, and ulimately we choked in the playoffs.  

 

It should be more than a bit concerning that we may slow down again, particularly defensively speaking.  IMO, again my opinion, the offense will only continue to gel and get better, with Davis being a huge part of that on that note.  But I do expect the defense to taper off significantly as we play better offenses. 

 

Everyone's cheering McD at how much better he is than Frazier, and while I am reserving judgment until more games have been played, he's allowed over 100 total yards per game through the first four games than Frazier did, and a comparable number of points.  55 this season, 58 last.  Negligible there.  But the over 400 more total yards allowed is hardly negligible.  That's nearly 2,000 yards for the season extrapolated out. 

 

We'd better hope that changes or it could be problematic.  It's not as if we've played top-10 offenses, except for Miami, who put up 393 total on us.  

 

Anyway, you've ignored just about every direct question I've asked on this topic and you clearly have an agenda re: Davis.  So be it.  Time, this season, will bear out what is the case. 

 

Dismiss 3 TDs, and more 1st-Downs than anyone but Diggs and Cook if you want to, but you're being ridiculous to suggest that it's not incredibly instrumental in our scoring in games, and therefore winning them.  

 

And honestly, if that's your standard, then every other player we have besides Diggs and Cook must absolutely suck moose oysters.  

 

 

 

 

 

If I had the proverbial nickel for every time someone like you on TSW put so much effort into being wrong.........only to watch me be proven right and then never own up to their ill-found takes and pretend that they had never held a strong opinion on the subject.........well that would be a lot o' nickels PB.

 

Just sayin'

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Davis has been impactful in just 3 of the 7 playoff games he played in and he was a big reason for their struggles down the stretch and the Cinci loss in the playoffs.

 

The fact that 2 of those 3 they won and the third was the 13 seconds narrow defeat only re-inforces the fact that they need that second receiving option to play well....so the defense can't just take away Diggs.......to advance.    

 

Unfortunately Gabe's brand is inconsistency.

 

Hard to win 3-4 playoff games in a row with inconsistency.

 

 

 

Inconsistency is how most receivers outside the top ten or so live.

 

Smith-Schuster last year with Mahomes throwing to him: 79, 10, 89, 46, 33, 113, 124, 88, 33, 38, 35, 74, 88, 27, 21, 35

Christian Kirk last year:  117, 78, 72, 60, 11, 24, 96, 40, 76, 105, 46, 104, 45, 92, 22, 21, 99

DK Metcalf last year:  36, 35, 64, 149, 88, 34, 12, 55, 37, 71, 90, 127, 71, 55, 81, 3, 40

Amari Cooper last year:  17, 101, 101, 9, 76, 44, 74, 131, 94, 40, 42, 58, 72, 105, 51

Tee Higgins last year:  27, 71, 93, 124, 47, 93, 49, 60, 148, 114, 35, 33, 128, 7

Garrett Wilson last  year:  52, 102, 60, 41, 27, 8, 24, 115, 92, 12, 95, 162, 78, 98, 30, 18, 89

 

Mike Williams 10, 113, 15, 120, 134, 17, 86, 15, 116, 67, 76, 94, 32

Courtland Sutton  72, 122, 97, 52, 74, 14, 23, 13, 66, 80, 75, 0, 64, 44, 33

 

This is simply how things go for WRs, most of them. Went out of my way to pick guys who had good years, better than Gabe. 

[PBF81]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

If I had the proverbial nickel for every time someone like you on TSW put so much effort into being wrong.........only to watch me be proven right and then never own up to their ill-found takes and pretend that they had never held a strong opinion on the subject.........well that would be a lot o' nickels PB.

 

Just sayin'

 

And if I had a nickel for the incessant waffling here and season long and week to week schizophrenia that goes on here ... 

 

  

 

 

8 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

If I had the proverbial nickel for every time someone like you on TSW put so much effort into being wrong.........only to watch me be proven right and then never own up to their ill-found takes and pretend that they had never held a strong opinion on the subject.........well that would be a lot o' nickels PB.

 

Just sayin'

 

BTW, it appears that you're on an island here.  

 

 

[Thurman#1]

7 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

If I had the proverbial nickel for every time someone like you on TSW put so much effort into being wrong.........only to watch me be proven right and then never own up to their ill-found takes and pretend that they had never held a strong opinion on the subject.........well that would be a lot o' nickels PB.

 

Just sayin'

 

 

 

Nice idea. You'd be helping to make yourself rich. You'd be contributing a lot of money to yourself.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

13 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Yeah, I don't get it either.  

 

He's got 3 TDs in four games, and his detractors give everyone but him credit.  I mean what does he have to do.  

 

Of his 12 catches, 11 have gone for 1st-Downs or TDs, with the 1st-Downs contributing to scoring drives, I think in every case.  Most teams would be happy to have a WR do that.  

 

He's on pace for 935 yards and 12 TDs, which by last season's standards would have put him at 24th for receiving yards and tied with Kelce for 2nd in receiving TDs.  24th!  2nd for TDs!  

 

But he's not good enough.  It's mindboggling.  

 

SMH  

 

 

Thank you. It really is mind boggling. Who would even replace him ? 

[Thurman#1]

34 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I am not saying you don't want quality receivers. Or even a solid second option. A big part of what I am referring to is the last season or two where the board has been filled with "Pay (insert start receiver) $15M per year. Every team is doing it." Of course, if you can get a sure handed outlet like JuJu for $3.5M the Bills should go out and do that. Hell, let Davis walk and grab a guy in the first this year. The roster is fairly complete and it is likely a cheap upgrade.

 

Equitable distribution has been the name of the game for some time. There is certainly a cost formula to the whole thing that needs to be adhered to as well. Spreading the ball out is something we have sucked at for a while now. Some of that is on the GM, some of it is on the OC, and some of that is on the QB. I think it is a big part of why the OL and running game looks better as well. It relieves a lot of pressure from everybody. I think it is a more complicated solution than "get a second receiver". 
 

To your point about having a second option when Diggs is taken away, in the only game Diggs didn't have 100 yards this year, Davis went 6/7 for 92 and a TD. He has had some ups and downs, but he did step up FWIW.  He had himself a bit of a day on Josh's second best game of the season.I think if Davis/Diggs cannot get it done on a given week the combo of Knox and Kincade can likely pick up the slack. Which is also part of the secret sauce for guys who are repeatedly winning SB's.

I am happy we are getting better at it. A big portion of the credit for that goes to Josh and Dorsey. 

 

 

 

 

All true and reasonable.

 

And a lot of what you are buying when you pay an elite QB is the chance to be wildly successful without spending tons and tons on WRs. Look at Brady. Mahomes. Rodgers. There are certainly some exceptions, but when you are paying a top 6 or 7 QB, you have a lot less money to work with, and so you tend to expect your QB to be really really effective with less.

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Thank you. It really is mind boggling. Who would even replace him ? 

 

That's a fantastic question.  Many are saying he's not worth $15M or whatever.  IMO the entire league is overpaid for playing a sport, that has significant amounts of its business expenses largely covered by taxpayers in many cases.  But not to digress and that aside ... 

 

I look at last season's WR Free-Agent Contracts on Spotrac.  https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/2023/all/all/ 

 

Click on "POS" to sort by WR.  

 

OBJ, who IMO is washed up, got $15M for one season.  I'm not sure we need more 1-2 year contracts either.  I'd like to see some continuity here.  

 

Woods at 31 got over $15M for two years.  

Smith-Shuster got over $25M for three years

Hopkins, who's washed up as a #1 at 31 got over $26M for two years.

Lazard and Jakobi Meyers each got $11M/season for 4 and 3 years respectively.  

 

Davis where he is at 24 is better than any of them.  What would everyone be thinking if any of those guys were on the team instead of Davis now.  And look at who we've gotten over the past four seasons;  Brown, McKenzie, and who else.  Meanwhile, many went bonkers over Andre Roberts and Robert Foster as if either of them ever had a realistic chance to do better than what Davis is now.  

 

Which brings up a point, when you consistently draft players that are the youngest in the draft, it only makes sense to plan on keeping them into their primes, not letting them walk just before their primes.  That makes little if any sense.  

 

Davis will be at the forefront of his prime going into his next contract.  

 

Based on the above it seems to me that signing Davis to a 4-year $40M contract prior to now would have been a good deal.  But hey, what do I know.  

 

That's a Beane problem.  At  this point the price-tag is going up by the week however.  

 

And BTW, sort on the '24 WR free agents, sort on Market Value.  I'm not seeing anyone that's going to make people here happy given the seeming price tags.  

 

 

 

 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

#3 WRs don't end up in the top 20 in TDs and the top 40 in yards, they just don't

 

Tyler Boyd, Josh Palmer, Donovan Peoples-Jones, and Diontae Johnson all finished top 40 in yards last year. I would classify all of them as #3 WRs.

 

Davis's TDs are what elevate him to high-end #3 for me. I'm not trying to trash him as player, I understand his skill set is valuable especially with Josh at QB. But he isn't versatile enough to be a full time #2. He is getting 4.5 targets per game this season. Those are #3 target numbers, not #2, especially in a high volume passing offense.

 

1 hour ago, Logic said:

If you're JUST looking at catch percentage -- and yes, I agree, actually CATCHING the ball is important, and is something Gabe has struggled with at times -- then I suppose you can try to make the Juju argument. But taking into account the totality of their production, it's hard to say with a straight face that Juju Smith-Schuster was significantly better than Davis, or that he was a "top receiver" in the NFL.

 

JuJu isn't a top receiver. But he can run all of the routes. He can separate in different ways. He was not a high end #2 last year but he was playing like a true #2. Davis at this point is very boom or bust. High YPC, high TD per catch, low separation efficiency, low catch percentage (although it has been better this year as a result of his lower targets per game).

 

I think next year Davis will get the Edmunds treatment. He'll be overpaid by a dumb team and within a few weeks he'll be putting up very modest production and have that team's fans questioning his contract.

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by HappyDays

[FireChans]

27 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nice idea. You'd be helping to make yourself rich. You'd be contributing a lot of money to yourself.

Hey now, you were one of the Edmunds guys. I’d slow down here lmao

[Logic]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

JuJu isn't a top receiver. But he can run all of the routes. He can separate in different ways. He was not a high end #2 last year but he was playing like a true #2. Davis at this point is very boom or bust. High YPC, high TD per catch, low separation efficiency, low catch percentage (although it has been better this year as a result of his lower targets per game).

 

 

Very reasonable. Agreed on all counts.