Gabe Davis - deep stat improvement

[BADOLBILZ]

14 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I've posted the examples before, not gonna go back now and find them again. But if you look at the #2 target pass catcher on each of the last 12 teams to participate in the Super Bowl, every one of them has been a better player than Davis. JuJu Smith-Schuster is probably the worst of that group and he had a 1,400 yard season not that long ago. By the time playoff football rolls around you're bound to face a defense that takes away your #1 guy. So who steps up? Right now for the Bills I'm not confident in anybody to be that answer.

 

But Allen and Diggs individually and as a combo are playing the best football of their lives right now. If they keep it up and the pass protection continues to impress, I could see us being the exception. January is a long way away though. It's still a nagging concern in my mind.

 

 

Yeah and just like we can hope that the lack of a better second receiving option doesn't stop them cold in January............. in the past there has always been the hope that the Bills highly ranked defense could bully their way to the SB and that remains a possibility as well (though their heavily invested-in defenses have been shredded in the playoffs multiple times now).

 

Bottom line is that they are trying to buck a pretty significant trend with Davis.

[PBF81]

16 minutes ago, Zag20 said:

This conversation comes down to, how much do you pay a number two receiver and is he easily replaceable. What does Davis do that isn’t replaceable? The only thing that stands out is a couple of nice toe-tappers, but there have been as many contested catches he hasn’t brought in to make those good plays moot. 

Maybe there’s an element of chemistry with Josh, but again that’s something that develops in any receiver, given the time. 

 

He makes big plays to keep us in games, keep drives that result in scoring going, and again, if he continues the pace he's on, and hits 12 TDs, which I can envision, then that would be the largest percentage of TDs thrown by Allen other than possibly to Diggs, who's career high was 11 last season, on 60% more targets and over twice the receptions.  

 

How much that's worth, again, I cannot say.  That depends upon Allen, Dorsey, and what the team thinks.  

 

Again however, for anyone to even approach suggesting that it's irrelevant is ludicrous speed.  

 

 

5 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Yeah and just like we can hope that the lack of a better second receiving option doesn't stop them cold in January............. in the past there has always been the hope that the Bills highly ranked defense could bully their way to the SB and that remains a possibility as well (though their heavily invested-in defenses have been shredded in the playoffs multiple times now).

 

Bottom line is that they are trying to buck a pretty significant trend with Davis.

 

A bunch of things have stopped us in January, Davis hasn't been one of 'em.  

 

Defense has.  Coaching has.  Lack of a running game has.  Poor OL has leaving Allen scrambling for his life has.  

 

Davis was largely instrumental in three of our four postseason wins under McD while he's been here, and one of those games was the win that pushed us to our fourth win in Davis' rookie season.  

 

He has more postseason TDs than any player on the team.  

 

The only trend that we're trying to buc in the playoffs is poor D and incredibly questionable coaching.  

 

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by PBF81

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

He makes big plays to keep us in games, keep drives that result in scoring going, and again, if he continues the pace he's on, and hits 12 TDs, which I can envision, then that would be the largest percentage of TDs thrown by Allen other than possibly to Diggs, who's career high was 11 last season, on 60% more targets and over twice the receptions.  

 

How much that's worth, again, I cannot say.  That depends upon Allen, Dorsey, and what the team thinks.  

 

Again however, for anyone to even approach suggesting that it's irrelevant is ludicrous speed.  

 

 

 

A bunch of things have stopped us in January, Davis hasn't been one of 'em.  

 

Defense has.  Coaching has.  Lack of a running game has.  Poor OL has leaving Allen scrambling for his life has.  

 

Davis was largely instrumental in three of our four postseason wins under McD while he's been here, and one of those games was the win that pushed us to our fourth win in Davis' rookie season.  

 

He has more postseason TDs than any player on the team.  

 

The only trend that we're trying to buc in the playoffs is poor D and incredibly questionable coaching.  

 

 

 

 

Davis has been impactful in just 3 of the 7 playoff games he played in and he was a big reason for their struggles down the stretch and the Cinci loss in the playoffs.

 

The fact that 2 of those 3 they won and the third was the 13 seconds narrow defeat only re-inforces the fact that they need that second receiving option to play well....so the defense can't just take away Diggs.......to advance.    

 

Unfortunately Gabe's brand is inconsistency.

 

Hard to win 3-4 playoff games in a row with inconsistency.

 

 

 

 

[DapperCam]

13 hours ago, SCBills said:

After 4 games, I still have no idea what to make of him.  
 

He has a role in this league.  He has to be one of the more prolific big play receivers out there, but I can’t help but wonder what this offense could look like with a WR2 that can simply run a complete route tree, consistently, with a moderate level of separation. 

How often does Davis moves the chains for 8-12 yards on a play that isn’t a scramble drill? Feels like very rarely. He is a WR #3 with big play potential. A more reliable #2 would make this offense even more deadly.

[mushypeaches]

Through 4 games, Gabe Davis is 36th in receiving yards.

 

I'll take that any day for my #2 WR

[BADOLBILZ]

8 hours ago, PBF81 said:

  

 

Davis is on pace for 935 and 12 TDs.  I have absolutely zero idea how that would not be enormously significant if he did it.  

 

 

 

 

 

For reference.........Gabe Davis was on pace for 1300+ yards thru 4 games last season.

 

The issues with Gabe are the inconsistency from game to game...........the near-league-worst hands for a WR(second only to Zay Jones in drops last year)...............and the inability to run enough routes to be able to pressure defense's that can bracket Diggs out of the game.

 

Regarding the latter..........Miami couldn't stop Diggs with a slot CB on him all game so the pressure was off Gabe.

 

Now Gabe is back to the scene of one of his crimes.........playing Jacksonville in a super low-profile game this week.........the last time that happened he had a devastating dropped pass on the last Bills drive of the game that greatly contributed to their defeat to the then-winless Jags.

 

[Magox]

14 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I don't think the numbers tell us much at all........still looks like the same guy to the eye test.

 

My belief has been that less targets would make him more efficient.........and I could easily say the lower amount of targets and better catch % support that.........but 18 targets with 1 drop and 2 interceptions thrown his way is still enough of a mixed bag for such a small sample size.

 

 

 

To be fair, those two picks had nothing to do with Gabe and everything to do with Josh.

[RunTheBall]

Davis has proved himself a high end #3, low end #2. 

 

This is pure conjecture on my part, but I think Davis has an inflated sense of self worth and sees himself as a 1b, mainly because Josh has elevated Davis’ game. If Davis goes to the Giants he’s going to disappear.

 

Beane has a number that he’s willing to sign Davis back for which is less than other teams would likely offer (just like Edmunds)

 

Whether Davis is willing to take less to stay in Buffalo, well, that’s what we are going to find out. If he doesn’t sign an extension in season I think he’s gone unless he tests the market and I’m wrong about other teams being willing to pay him and he comes crawling back.

 

 

[Logic]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Kelce and Juju both finished top 25 in the NFL in yardage and caught 72 and 77 percent of the passes thrown their way, respectively.

 

Did Mahomes elevate Juju's game?   Sure,  just like Big Ben elevated Juju in his 1400 yard receiving season.   But Juju is capable of being elevated because he can do whatever is needed in the passing game.

 

Josh Allen elevates Gabe Davis a lot.........but the end result is not a WR1 type option despite having a GREAT QB........because his modest athleticism and bad hands have limited his ceiling.

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the reply.

Respectfully, I think calling Juju a "top receiver" -- which was the phrase and notion to which I originally replied -- is a stretch. 

Juju had 933 yards receiving and 3 TDs in 16 games played.
Gabe had 836 yards receiving and 7 TDs in 15 games played.

If you're JUST looking at catch percentage -- and yes, I agree, actually CATCHING the ball is important, and is something Gabe has struggled with at times -- then I suppose you can try to make the Juju argument. But taking into account the totality of their production, it's hard to say with a straight face that Juju Smith-Schuster was significantly better than Davis, or that he was a "top receiver" in the NFL. His last three full seasons in the NFL saw him post 552, 831, and 933 yard totals. Hardly "top receiver" stuff.

If you asked most defensive coordinators around the NFL if they view Juju Smith-Schuster as a "top receiver" or someone that they really have to gameplan for, I'm guessing most would say no. And if you asked most offensive coordinators which receiver they'd rather have on their roster right this minute between Juju and Gabe Davis, I'd bet the vast majority would say Gabe Davis.

As is often the case with us, we can agree to disagree on the matter. 🙂

Edited October 3, 2023 by Logic

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Davis has been impactful in just 3 of the 7 playoff games he played in and he was a big reason for their struggles down the stretch and the Cinci loss in the playoffs.

 

The fact that 2 of those 3 they won and the third was the 13 seconds narrow defeat only re-inforces the fact that they need that second receiving option to play well....so the defense can't just take away Diggs.......to advance.    

 

Unfortunately Gabe's brand is inconsistency.

 

Hard to win 3-4 playoff games in a row with inconsistency.

 

 

 

 

 

LMAO

 

Go ahead and name the other players, game by game, besides Allen, that made an impact or were consistent in the playoffs during those seasons.  Win or Lose.  

 

I dare ya.

 

Start with Diggs.  

 

Maybe then picture will clear up.  

 

 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

The Miami game helped him, prior to that his catch % was in the mid 50s after his 1-for-4 catch performance the week before. 

[PBF81]

55 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

For reference.........Gabe Davis was on pace for 1300+ yards thru 4 games last season.

 

The issues with Gabe are the inconsistency from game to game...........the near-league-worst hands for a WR(second only to Zay Jones in drops last year)...............and the inability to run enough routes to be able to pressure defense's that can bracket Diggs out of the game.

 

Regarding the latter..........Miami couldn't stop Diggs with a slot CB on him all game so the pressure was off Gabe.

 

Now Gabe is back to the scene of one of his crimes.........playing Jacksonville in a super low-profile game this week.........the last time that happened he had a devastating dropped pass on the last Bills drive of the game that greatly contributed to their defeat to the then-winless Jags.

 

 

Seriously?

 

And Diggs was on pace for 1,800 yards and 17 TDs 

 

Rousseau was on pace for 17 sacks, 21 TFLs, and 25 QBHits.

 

The entire world has is penciled in for a Lombardi.  

 

 

[AlfaBill]

55 minutes ago, Magox said:

To be fair, those two picks had nothing to do with Gabe and everything to do with Josh.

I would disagree. That 2nd INT where was Gabe? When Josh launched that Gabe was step by step with the WR. When the ball arrived Gabe was a step back. If he had continued running he could’ve made a play on the ball, either catch it(doubtful) or at least batt it down. He’s an average guy a great WR3. Not a 2

[Dopey]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Davis has been impactful in just 3 of the 7 playoff games he played in and he was a big reason for their struggles down the stretch and the Cinci loss in the playoffs.

 

The fact that 2 of those 3 they won and the third was the 13 seconds narrow defeat only re-inforces the fact that they need that second receiving option to play well....so the defense can't just take away Diggs.......to advance.    

 

Unfortunately Gabe's brand is inconsistency.

 

Hard to win 3-4 playoff games in a row with inconsistency.

 

 

 

 

Still letting Josh off the hook for that Cincy loss, I see. Josh was off that game. Even on the sidelines he looked like he was somewhere else. Singing a lullaby for his new baby maybe? Diggs did well to give everyone an excuse for Josh that game. Gabe wasn’t even close to being a reason we lost that game. It was Josh “baby daddy “ Allen. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

This offense is still desperate for a #2 target to step up and be reliable. Gabe is week-to-week unreliable, Dawson is low key having some struggles as well. 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

To be fair, those two picks had nothing to do with Gabe and everything to do with Josh.

 

 

That's not really true.

 

He was blamed by some NFL talking heads for the lazy route that Whitehead exploited on the opening game INT.

 

And his terrible drop early in the sequence of downs contributed to the desperation throw that turned into an INT versus Washington.

 

Have you watched the games?

 

The "to be fair" part is more like  "he was dropping passes in the preseason still".

 

The first Josh Allen pass of the preseason was a dime of a throw on a quick slant that hit the open Gabe on the hands and he butterfingered it to the ground...........he also dropped another over the middle when he was wide open.  

 

There is nothing to indicate that he's appreciably different than last season or the year before or the year before........

33 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

LMAO

 

Go ahead and name the other players, game by game, besides Allen, that made an impact or were consistent in the playoffs during those seasons.  Win or Lose.  

 

I dare ya.

 

Start with Diggs.  

 

Maybe then picture will clear up.  

 

 

 

 

Great players like Diggs can sometimes be taken out of the game with double teams.

 

Gabe doesn't have that excuse.

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

26 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Seriously?

 

And Diggs was on pace for 1,800 yards and 17 TDs 

 

Rousseau was on pace for 17 sacks, 21 TFLs, and 25 QBHits.

 

The entire world has is penciled in for a Lombardi.  

 

 

 

 

You literally posted that Davis was on pace for 900 yards so I pointed out the relative insignificance or your projection..........I wasn't the one who started the "on pace" narrative that was you.    You get that right?   You stop taking your meds? 

[Thurman#1]

35 minutes ago, AlfaBill said:

I would disagree. That 2nd INT where was Gabe? When Josh launched that Gabe was step by step with the WR. When the ball arrived Gabe was a step back. If he had continued running he could’ve made a play on the ball, either catch it(doubtful) or at least batt it down. He’s an average guy a great WR3. Not a 2

 

 

Again, this is simply a dumb argument. His stats show extremely clearly that he's a #2. No, not a great #2, but it isn't even a question that he's a #2.

 

#3 WRs don't end up in the top 20 in TDs and the top 40 in yards, they just don't. And Gabe was that high last year and is higher so far this year.

[sunshynman]

The one receiver that truly could have helped as a true #2 would be Evans. I wish we could have gotten him this offseason. He is exactly what the Bills want as a #2. And Davis would thrive as #3 with Diggs/Evans.

Edited October 3, 2023 by sunshynman

[boater]

Gabe's OK. Not really good, just OK. His numbers are due to Diggs being double covered and the D's confliction when covering two TE.