Gabe Davis - deep stat improvement

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, Mango said:

Honestly this is the way it should be. The offense every week should be 6-10 targets to Diggs and 25 targets to 6 other receivers. We have sucked at spreading the ball around. 
 

I’ve never been a huge proponent of 1a/1b. You need a guy and a bunch of “pretty good” to spread the defense out. 

 

 

 

So you've never been a big proponent of what every team that has reached the SB for the last 6 years has done?

 

What you are talking about used to work fine.........think early-mid 2000's Patriots.

 

Since the 2010 rules changes just making a SB without 2 top receiving threats has become the exception.

 

[FireChans]

48 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

I don't think so.  I think some will simply never be happy with him.  

 

Last season, playing injured a good chunk of it, 35 of his 48 catches went for TDs (7) or 1st-Downs (28) and contributed heavily to us scoring and keeping drives alive.  

 

The types of patterns he's asked to run, and let's be clear, he runs what he's instructed to run by Dorsey, are low-percentage deep-routes.  Allen likes him too for that purpose.  

 

 

 

Can't the same be said about all of the WRs on the team. 

 

Also, in contrast, everyone's applauding Kincaid, who has fewer than half the yards, about a third the yards-per-catch, 0 TDs, and only 3 1st-Downs to Davis' 8.  

 

Of Kincaid's 3 1st-Downs, only two have occurred on scoring drives, both of those drives leading to a FG, whereas I believe all but one of Davis' catches have been on drives leading to scores totaling 54 points.  

 

For a 4th-round draft pick he's one of Beane's best value picks if not the best outright.  There isn't a day-3 pick that's provided better value for the pick.  He's 

 

There were 16 WRs drafted ahead of him in 2020.  He's got more TDs (23) than all but one, Jefferson. (28)  He's got more yards than all but 7.  Considering the TD/Yardage ratio, he's better than anyone in that draft.  Jefferson logs a TD for every 192 receiving yards.  Davis logs one for half of that, every 96 receiving yards.  

 

 

Davis was tied for 47th in first downs in the NFL last year. I don’t think that stat is as impressive as you make it seem.

[PBF81]

12 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Davis was tied for 47th in first downs in the NFL last year. I don’t think that stat is as impressive as you make it seem.

 

Way to take the discussion entirely out of its context to suit a contrary position.  

 

I'm just curious, which part of what I wrote threw ya?  Most seriously?  Which part eluded you?  

 

 

[FireChans]

Just now, PBF81 said:

 

Way to take the discussion entirely out of its context to suit a contrary position.  

 

I'm just curious, which part of what I wrote threw ya?  Most seriously?  Which part eluded you?  

 

 

I think the context of the league matters when categorizing counting stats.

 

Zay Jones had 33 first downs and 7 TD’s his second year on the Bills. Was he a hugely important piece? 

[GoBills808]

TDs/yards and TDs/reception are always going to paint Davis in a favorable light

[PBF81]

9 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I think the context of the league matters when categorizing counting stats.

 

Zay Jones had 33 first downs and 7 TD’s his second year on the Bills. Was he a hugely important piece? 

 

No, that doesn't address anything that was stated.  And Jones had only 26 1st-Downs.  He was also a high 2nd-round day-2 pick, not a 4th rounder, and many many WRs drafted after him have outperformed him since then.  

 

Try again.  

 

I'll even kill your points.  Zay Jones had 56 receptions and a fraction of the YPR and many of hits catches were on dead drives, and he was in an entirely different role, one of the higher-percentage routes, and still only had a bottom-dwelling Catch%.  So no, absolutely not, there's no significant comparison there.  None.  The 47th is entirely irrelevant to anything that I posted.  

 

I'll restate it to make it easy;  

 

Quote

 

Last season, playing injured a good chunk of it, 35 of his 48 catches went for TDs (7) or 1st-Downs (28) and contributed heavily to us scoring and keeping drives alive.  

 

The types of patterns he's asked to run, and let's be clear, he runs what he's instructed to run by Dorsey, are low-percentage deep-routes.  Allen likes him too for that purpose.  

 

 

 

Can't the same be said about all of the WRs on the team. 

 

Also, in contrast, everyone's applauding Kincaid, who has fewer than half the yards, about a third the yards-per-catch, 0 TDs, and only 3 1st-Downs to Davis' 8.  

 

Of Kincaid's 3 1st-Downs, only two have occurred on scoring drives, both of those drives leading to a FG, whereas I believe all but one of Davis' catches have been on drives leading to scores totaling 54 points.  ×

 

For a 4th-round draft pick he's one of Beane's best value picks if not the best outright.  There isn't a day-3 pick that's provided better value for the pick.  He's 

 

There were 16 WRs drafted ahead of him in 2020.  He's got more TDs (23) than all but one, Jefferson. (28)  He's got more yards than all but 7.  Considering the TD/Yardage ratio, he's better than anyone in that draft.  Jefferson logs a TD for every 192 receiving yards.  Davis logs one for half of that, every 96 receiving yards.  

 

 

I have absolutely no idea how anyone can even approach thinking that Kincaid is contributing significantly at this point, but that Davis is not.  

 

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by PBF81

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

No, that doesn't address anything that was stated.  And Jones had only 26 1st-Downs.  He was also a 2nd-round day-2 pick, not a 4th rounder, and many many WRs drafted after him have outperformed him since then.  

 

Try again.  

 

I'll even kill your points.  Zay Jones had 56 receptions and a fraction of the YPR and many of hits catches were on dead drives, and he was in an entirely different role, one of the higher-percentage routes, and still only had a bottom-dwelling Catch%.  So no, absolutely not, there's no significant comparison there.  None.  The 47th is entirely irrelevant to anything that I posted.  

 

I'll restate it to make it easy;  

 

 

I have absolutely no idea how anyone can even approach thinking that Kincaid is contributing significantly at this point, but that Davis is not.  

 

 

PFR says you’re wrong. It has Zay at 33.

 

Gabe Davis was a good day 3 pick. But a good day 3 pick doesn’t make you a good WR2.

Edited October 3, 2023 by FireChans

[Mango]

36 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

So you've never been a big proponent of what every team that has reached the SB for the last 6 years has done?

 

What you are talking about used to work fine.........think early-mid 2000's Patriots.

 

Since the 2010 rules changes just making a SB without 2 top receiving threats has become the exception.

 

3/6 were won by Brady/Mahomes. 2 QB’s notorious for spreading the ball out?

 

Part of what I am talking about isn’t just painting with a broad brush “two good receivers”. When I talk about premier I’m talking about paying Diggs and $18M on the other side of the field. 
 

So sure, if we can get OBJ for $1.25M like he got paid in LA. Do it.
 

And ya know what, go ahead and get Tyreek and Kelce for a grand total of like $13M. I’ll take that. 

 

I would love to grab JuJu for $3.7M. 
 

The 2017 Eagles combined cap hit for Wentz, Foles, Jefferies, and Ertz was like $25M total. 

Gronk, Evans, and Godwin combined for $15M against the cap for TB. 

 What I don’t want is a $40M QB, $25M receiver, and another $18M receiver and all the targets going to those guys. That’s not how any of this works.

 

But sure, go get great players for cheap or draft them, I’m all for it. But at the end of the day really good teams spread the ball out a ton and rarely have a 1a/1b in the stat book and never have them in the check book. A lot of the time they don’t have there number 1 that is close to leading the league in receptions.

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by Mango

[HappyDays]

His targets per game is down. Last year 6.2 targets per game, this year so far 4.5 targets per game. That is a substantial difference - over a 17 game season it's 29 less targets.

 

He is playing like a really good #3 WR right now IMO. With his targets coming down he has become more efficient which should have been the goal coming into the season. If he ends up at 4.5 targets per game, that will put him in the same company (going off of 2022 statistics) as players like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chase Claypool, Alec Pierce, Michael Gallup... I think Davis is at least slightly better than all of those players so I would call him a high-end #3.

 

It remains to be seen if an offense can sustain a Super Bowl run without a true #2, but with Allen and the defense playing as well as they have over the past three weeks it may be enough to overcome that handicap.

[Mango]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

His targets per game is down. Last year 6.2 targets per game, this year so far 4.5 targets per game. That is a substantial difference - over a 17 game season it's 29 less targets.

 

He is playing like a really good #3 WR right now IMO. With his targets coming down he has become more efficient which should have been the goal coming into the season. If he ends up at 4.5 targets per game, that will put him in the same company (going off of 2022 statistics) as players like Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Chase Claypool, Alec Pierce, Michael Gallup... I think Davis is at least slightly better than all of those players so I would call him a high-end #3.

 

It remains to be seen if an offense can sustain a Super Bowl run without a true #2, but with Allen and the defense playing as well as they have over the past three weeks it may be enough to overcome that handicap.

We’ll have to draft a receiver high next year. Diggs won’t last forever and I think Davis asking price is too high given the cap. 
 

I like having him around. It’s a shame. But part of the business. 

[Logic]

39 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

 

So you've never been a big proponent of what every team that has reached the SB for the last 6 years has done?

 

What you are talking about used to work fine.........think early-mid 2000's Patriots.

 

Since the 2010 rules changes just making a SB without 2 top receiving threats has become the exception.

 

 

 

Who was the Chiefs' second "top receiving threat" last year?

It sure seemed like Travis Kelce and a bunch of JAGs to me.

 

[PBF81]

21 minutes ago, FireChans said:

PFR says you’re wrong. It has Zay at 33.

 

Gabe Davis was a good day 3 pick. But a good day 3 pick doesn’t make you a good WR2.

 

No, you must understand what you're reading at PFR.  

 

33 is combined TDs and 1Ds.  33 - 7 = 26 

 

Care to address the difference in routes run?  Jones averaged 11.6 YPR that season, and 9.1 Yards-Before-Catch-per-Reception.  

 

AKA, Jones is a slot WR, with much easier much higher percentage passes, whereas Davis takes on the much lower percentage deep throws, which is reflected in the stats provided.  

 

Not one of his six full seasons prior to this season has matched Davis' season last year.  Only two have matched either of Davis' first two seasons.  In his entire career to date, on twice the receptions, Jones has 17 TDs to Davis' 23, and has a career YPR avg. of 10.7 to Davis' 17.0.  Jones' 1st-Down/TD% is 56.2%% to Davis' 78.5%.   

 

Apart from their TDs, Jones 1st-Down conversion rate is 53.1% while Davis' is 73.8%.  

 

Davis is averaging 14.1 YBC/R this season and it was 14.4 last season, then again over 50% more than Jones, fully corroborating the point made.  And last season while injured.  

 

Otherwise, only here in Buffalo is 3, a third of Allen's TD passes, and 10% of the team's 1st-Downs "insignificant." 

 

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by PBF81

[BADOLBILZ]

28 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

TDs/yards and TDs/reception are always going to paint Davis in a favorable light

 

 

Yeah with a QB who can buy time and make throws to parts of the field that CB's aren't even used to having to defend...........and with an OC that schemes around his limitations.

 

Gabe's situation in Buffalo is not the usual.

 

Guys like he and Marquez Valdes-Scantling are good fits at the right price as HR hitting 3rd options for guys like Mahomes/Rodgers/Allen.

 

But with his struggles to contribute early on in downs I am not certain Gabe could even make the Dolphins or Niners rosters due to their extremely quick hitting attacks.

 

He'd just be a terrible fit in a quick release passing offense.

Edited October 3, 2023 by BADOLBILZ

[PBF81]

14 minutes ago, Mango said:

We’ll have to draft a receiver high next year. Diggs won’t last forever and I think Davis asking price is too high given the cap. 
 

I like having him around. It’s a shame. But part of the business. 

 

That's a GM problem, and an entirely different part of the conversation.  But we all know that having extended him by now would have cost us less.  Everyone that pays attention to football knows full well that waiting until players become unrestricted free agents always costs more to sign them.  

 

Whether or not he's worth $11M/season I cannot say.  That is likely in the eyes of the beholder.  I would think that Allen's opinion is what matters most there, his and Dorsey's.  But I'm not sure I want to trust Beane's ability to draft Davis' replacement given his track record in the drafts with WRs.  

 

Also, we signed Diggs to big money and everyone applauded the trade of a 1st and then some, saying that it was as good as a 1st-round pick.  Not really, since a 1st-round pick costs much less, ala Jefferson.  But that aside ... 

 

IMO this is one of those be careful what you wish for, you may get it situations.  

 

My perplexion has to do with people raving about Kincaid for example, who has a third of the 1st-Downs, a third of the YPR, none of the TDs, while out of the other side of their mouths stating boldly that Davis isn't good.  

 

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by PBF81

[HappyDays]

15 minutes ago, Mango said:

But at the end of the day really good teams spread the ball out a ton and rarely have a 1a/1b in the stat book and never have them in the check book. A lot of the time they don’t have there number 1 that is close to leading the league in receptions.

 

I've posted the examples before, not gonna go back now and find them again. But if you look at the #2 target pass catcher on each of the last 12 teams to participate in the Super Bowl, every one of them has been a better player than Davis. JuJu Smith-Schuster is probably the worst of that group and he had a 1,400 yard season not that long ago. By the time playoff football rolls around you're bound to face a defense that takes away your #1 guy. So who steps up? Right now for the Bills I'm not confident in anybody to be that answer.

 

But Allen and Diggs individually and as a combo are playing the best football of their lives right now. If they keep it up and the pass protection continues to impress, I could see us being the exception. January is a long way away though. It's still a nagging concern in my mind.

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

No, you must understand what you're reading at PFR.  

 

33 is combined TDs and 1Ds.  33 - 7 = 26 

 

Care to address the difference in routes run?  Jones averaged 11.6 YPR that season, and 9.1 Yards-Before-Catch-per-Reception.  

 

Not one of his six full seasons prior to this season has matched Davis' season last year.  Only two have matched either of Davis' first two seasons.  In his entire career to date, on twice the receptions, Jones has 17 TDs to Davis' 23, and has a career YPR avg. of 10.7 to Davis' 17.0.  Jones' 1st-Down/TD% is 56.2%% to Davis' 78.5%.   

 

Apart from their TDs, Jones 1st-Down conversion rate is 53.1% while Davis' is 73.8%.  

 

Davis is averaging 14.1 YBC/R this season and it was 14.4 last season, then again over 50% more than Jones, fully corroborating the point made.  And last season while injured.  

 

Otherwise, only here in Buffalo is 3, a third of Allen's TD passes, and 10% of the team's 1st-Downs "insignificant." 

 

 

Again, all of those stats matter in context to the league at large. Gabe is a starter in the NFL, he is going to contribute to the team totals. How that compares across the NFL would be relevant. 

[PBF81]

Just now, FireChans said:

Again, all of those stats matter in context to the league at large. Gabe is a starter in the NFL, he is going to contribute to the team totals. How that compares across the NFL would be relevant. 

 

Well, right now, by last season's final stats, he's tracking to be around the 24th leading yardage WR and tied for 2nd in the league for receiving TDs. 

 

If that sucks, so be it.  

 

 

[Zag20]

This conversation comes down to, how much do you pay a number two receiver and is he easily replaceable. What does Davis do that isn’t replaceable? The only thing that stands out is a couple of nice toe-tappers, but there have been as many contested catches he hasn’t brought in to make those good plays moot. 

Maybe there’s an element of chemistry with Josh, but again that’s something that develops in any receiver, given the time. 

[BADOLBILZ]

11 minutes ago, Logic said:

 

 

Who was the Chiefs' second "top receiving threat" last year?

It sure seemed like Travis Kelce and a bunch of JAGs to me.

 

 

 

Kelce and Juju both finished top 25 in the NFL in yardage and caught 72 and 77 percent of the passes thrown their way, respectively.

 

Did Mahomes elevate Juju's game?   Sure,  just like Big Ben elevated Juju in his 1400 yard receiving season.   But Juju is capable of being elevated because he can do whatever is needed in the passing game.

 

Josh Allen elevates Gabe Davis a lot.........but the end result is not a WR1 type option despite having a GREAT QB........because his modest athleticism and bad hands have limited his ceiling.

 

 

 

 

[PBF81]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Again, all of those stats matter in context to the league at large. Gabe is a starter in the NFL, he is going to contribute to the team totals. How that compares across the NFL would be relevant. 

 

BTW, I just looked, only five teams had two 1,000-yard WRs last season.  

 

Cincy:  

Higgins:  1,029/7

Chase:  1,046/9 

 

Miami:  

Hill:  1,710/7

Waddle:  1,356/8

 

Philly: 

Brown:  1,496/11

Smith:  1,196/7 

 

Seattle: 

Metcalf:  1,048/6

Lockett:  1,033/9 

 

Tampa: 

Evans:  1,124/6

Godwin:  1,023/3 

 

No team had two WRs with double-digit TDs.  

 

If you count TEs, SF is the only team that had two receivers (WR/TE) with 8 or more TDs.  

 

I'm not sure that peoples' outlook here is rational.  

 

KC's second-leading WR was Smith-Shuster last season, with 933 yards and 3 TDs.  

 

Davis is on pace for 935 and 12 TDs.  I have absolutely zero idea how that would not be enormously significant if he did it.