Random Thoughts: post-Q1 of season

[MasterStrategist]

Some random thoughts after Q1 of season is now complete, and how this team might continue to "morph/improve" heading into the Q2+ of season.

 

Q1 of season review:

• Trench play: we finally get to see what this team can do, when the trenches (both o-line & d-line) are excelling
  • OL: improvement to both G positions, and what appears to be more consistent play from Dion & Spencer is yielding early dividends.  Torrence looks to be a future pro-bowler/locked in starter.  
  • DL: Collectively this group is performing "at potential" (finally, based on resources used by Beane).  Floyd has been the best signing for a while, collective group returning from LY has also taken a step.  Poona is the only disappointment to-date, but inevitably we will likely need to count on him in the rotation again at some point
• Defensive attitude/aggression: you can tell there is a different "leader", passion/aggression is at an all-time high.  I attribute that to Coach, but also to Bernard/Floyd - along with the other defensive leaders.  No longer is the team allowing teams to push them around.  Bernard has added the "game changing"/high impact plays that alluded Tremaine; not saying he's a better overall player at this point - but a lot of positives thus far (including I prefer TBs intensity)
• Offensive identity: dare I say, we can see a "well-rounded" identity developing?!  Great gameplan by Dorsey yesterday, and this team has faced likely 2 of top 10 DLs already (Jets & Wash).  This team will obviously lean on Josh/Diggs combo, but it's promising to see how the run-game & use of "complimentary" weapons are being utilized.  Davis target share is down from LY, as I mentioned early this offseason as a "needed" adjustment.  Spreading the ball around, and staying ahead of the sticks is "winning football" most times than not -- credit to Dorsey, but more importantly Josh for making positive changes to his style of play.  Other than Week 1, which can be an outlier for many teams, this group has been clicking
• 1 player call-out OFFENSE: James Cook, I could mention others, but this guy caught my eye when attending training camp & he's been dynamic to start the year.  I like our RB trio and how Dorsey has utilized them. I still think there are more ways to get James the ball in the passing game, but expect Cook to finish with double-digit TDs
• 1 player call-out DEFENSE: couple guys come to mind, but I'd give this to Terrell Bernard right now.  Milano is our best player on defense, period, and Floyd has been a jolt up-front.  But TB has surprised the masses on this message board & has shown ability to make the impactful plays -- and his tenacity/attitude are making it easy to forget Maine right now. 

 

Q2+:

• OL: scary to think this OL, as a group, only has 4 games together.  It takes time to 'gel' as a collective unit, and this group looks to be improving week-to-week. This could be a top 5-7 unit in the NFL by season end
• Offensive improvements: I could see Dorsey trying to get "more" out of Harty/Shakir/Sherfield, each of these guys have that "YAC" ability-- we've seen limited glimpses to-date, but getting more plays designed to get them the ball in space.  Kincaid is naturally seeing an uptick in targets, which should continue AND trying to get him on more downfield/developing cross or seam routes is something I expect to see as teams start to adjust to our success against 2-high safeties
  • Mostly we've seen 2-high safety looks & Dorsey/Josh seemed to find a very good balance these past few weeks.  I expect to see teams start mixing up more blitzes, which will be more test for our o-line & playmakers ability to win "1-1".  Perhaps we could see the screen game, which is probably the only thing they haven't had much success with
• Defensive improvements: losing Tre - can only say it sucks - but this team has dealt with adversity, especially in the secondary for 3 years running now & have found ways to adjust.  I think Elam will eventually take over for Dane, perhaps that's more a preference, but Dane has looked good in limited action & brings vet experience.  Overall, whenever Von returns, he'll be joining an already impactful/top performing DL.  I think our front 4 is "that good" this year, barring injury, and the expectation should be they are "elite" (given resources spent).  I fully expect this DL to start getting more "media" notoriety over the next few weeks, Von returning will bring more attention to that as well
  • Getting improvement: Von's return will only help, but this group has collectively performed extremely well & expect Bernard/Milano's impact to continue getting better
• S/T: I'm not a fan of our punt return "scheme" - you see alot of teams deploy "tiered" blocking, ie: 2 players 10-15 yards off the line to help set-up the blocks.  I think Harty can be a much bigger weapon on PRs.  Kick returns, I'm happy if Shakir would just take a knee.  Bass is off to a fantastic start, he's been very critical 

 

2022/2023 draft taking shape:

• 2022: IF, Elam can take advantage of his potential opportunity - we could look back at season's end & say this was the key component to our success/playoff run
  • Round 1-3: Elam, Cook, Bernard - 2 of these guys have critical roles/high-end contributors already
• 2023: Torrence has been a stud up-front, Kincaid is continuing to get more targets, he needs fed the ball more still IMO.

 

[Thurman#1]

I miss "Quarter One" fractions.

 

This is 4/17ths of the season, unfortunately.

 

It's a small thing they took away from us with the 17th game.

 

I don't see the "pushed around" thing as a McDermott product. They've never let people push them around, but since his Star's first two years they didn't have a 1-tech who was imposing his will in the middle the way that DaQuan is now. And while Star was very good those first two years, DaQuan is just better. He's a major part of their resurgence, and the D last year also showed this. Settle seems to be playing better also this year.

 

The DL with DaQuan and Von last year looked terrific, but losing Von really hurt. Floyd seems to be taking up just about all of that slack.

 

Loved McDermott's scheme agains the Fins. Great stuff. 

 

This team is extremely promising. Only sad to see Tre go down.

 

 

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by Thurman#1

[uninja]

It's been really crazy how much better the front 7 has been playing and just creating absolute havoc for QBs and O-lines. I had my reservations about McD taking over the defense but I'm happy to admit I was wrong.

[Logic]

Thanks for a great post.

Everything you said is spot on. I don't have anything to quibble with.

I'll just say that if you want to know who's going to win most NFL games after watching only the first few series, just look at who's winning the battles in the trenches. Control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and you usually win. 

So far this year, the Bills are controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.

The offensive line is NIGHT AND DAY different from last year. It is SHOCKING how much better this unit has looked. I expected run blocking improvement, but they've been downright fantastic in terms of pass blocking, as well. Much has been made of Josh Allen's 2022 season and "Good Josh vs Bad Josh". One thing that seems clear to me is that when given good protection -- particularly on the interior -- he is one of the two or three best quarterbacks in the league. So far this year, he's had that protection. Let's hope it continues.

The defensive line is also, to my eyes, night and day different from last year. Leonard Floyd may have been the best free agency signing in all of football this offseason. Greg Rousseau is blossoming into an elite EDGE right before our eyes. Oliver and Jones, so far at least, have been about as good a 1-2 punch at DT as you'll find anywhere in the league. Even depth guys like AJ Epenesa and Jordan Phillips are making big contributions. Crazy to think that the Bills get to add Von Miller to this unit in the weeks to come!

There's lots of other stuff to look back on with appreciation from quarter one and look forward to with anticipation for quarters 2-4, and you touched on a lot of it. But to me, the VAST improvement to both lines is the story of the season so far.