It was always play action.

[Big Turk]

10 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Quoting Rex Ruin?

 

Play action is MORE effective if a defense respects your running game and has to account for run defense. That should be a no-brainer.

 

Play action to Derrick Henry made Tannehill look like a great QB because defenses had to respect that running ability and it created a lot of space to hit his receivers.

 

Also, I think we do try some RPO plays, but those have to be strictly rule-based (QB triggers off a read) and clear on timing and execution for whether the QB hands it off or keeps it. Allen is notoriously greedy on those as I think he just feels better about the ball being in his hands to make something out of the play - the defensive reads be damned. So those exchanges result in some exaggerated and awkward handoffs that need to be cleaner.

 

 

 

It's actually mostly irrelevant.  This is people trying to make logical assumptions and then find evidence to support that instead of actually just looking at what the evidence is without a biased notion.  Similar to why saturated fats have gotten a bum rap for 60 years from the first nonsensical study that pre-determined what they wanted to show and then skewed the study to do just that. 

[Motorin']

2 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Can playaction be effective without a running game, sure, would it be more effective with a good running game, obviously.

 

But we're taking to the same people who proclaimed for three years that it was mathematically impossible for Josh Allen to be an accurate passer. 

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, boyst said:

josh also needs to be under center.

Agreed, but mix in some shotgun.  I think diversity is important. Anyone have a breakdown of shotgun to under center snaps from this game?

 

[FireChans]

29 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Quoting Rex Ruin?

 

Play action is MORE effective if a defense respects your running game and has to account for run defense. That should be a no-brainer.

 

Play action to Derrick Henry made Tannehill look like a great QB because defenses had to respect that running ability and it created a lot of space to hit his receivers.

 

Also, I think we do try some RPO plays, but those have to be strictly rule-based (QB triggers off a read) and clear on timing and execution for whether the QB hands it off or keeps it. Allen is notoriously greedy on those as I think he just feels better about the ball being in his hands to make something out of the play - the defensive reads be damned. So those exchanges result in some exaggerated and awkward handoffs that need to be cleaner.

 

 

It’s a no brainer for someone who doesn’t understand statistics. 
 

Idk why people argue reality

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, HoofHearted said:

"the shotgun draw" 😂

....you do realize there's just as many draws behind center as in the gun. The main difference is a "delayed handoff" or draw from behind C at least allows the rb a small head start.....

[Motorin']

2 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Sorry you do not. The reality is all the analytics SHOW THAT. 

 

Why?

 

LBers play of KEYS. 

 

G-C-G Triangle (run action they play Run)

Through QB to RB

 

A RUN ACTION the LBers will play RUN.  That is the reality.

 

It's impossible for the analytics to show that teams don't have to run the ball at all for play action to work. 

 

Why? Because there's never been a season of NFL football where any team has ran the ball less than 18 times per game over the course of a season. 

 

The conditions for the claim you guys are sticking to have never existed. Teams have to prepare to defend the run because teams run the ball. And play action passing work because defenses prepare to defend the run.

 

And teams have to prepare for the run because all teams run the ball...

 

 

 

 

[HoofHearted]

17 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

....you do realize there's just as many draws behind center as in the gun. The main difference is a "delayed handoff" or draw from behind C at least allows the rb a small head start.....

Sorry, it just amuses me that every run out of shotgun is a draw to most fans.

[WideNine]

7 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

It's impossible for the analytics to show that teams don't have to run the ball at all for play action to work. 

 

Why? Because there's never been a season of NFL football where any team has ran the ball less than 18 times per game over the course of a season. 

 

The conditions for the claim you guys are sticking to have never existed. Teams have to prepare to defend the run because teams run the ball. And play action passing work because defenses prepare to defend the run.

 

And teams have to prepare for the run because all teams run the ball...

 

 

 

 

 

I feel pretty good about what I think stats can and cannot tell me and I do place a lot of value on trending data as a tool for mapping and using probabilities.

I don't see a lot of value getting into the stat debates as I work with enough data analyst that I know they forget to look up sometimes from the numbers - it is a dead-end waste of time. For being such an infallible predictor the philosopher in me is pleased each and every time someone here or an organization like PFF who are immersed in stats come up wrong in their conclusions and predictions.

I will admit it makes me happy when they backtrack, talk about variables they did not factor in, and fail to render completely the game I love a into a joyless control chart. Perhaps they should just exchange statistics and skip the whole game playing thing
 
 

Meh - so I am old school, and I will continue to trust my eyes and how I think the Bills and their opponents perform in the context of each situation and game.

 

 

[peterpan]

4 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Rex Ryan said as much that whether you can run the ball or not makes no difference in terms of the success of play action because it causes a split second hesitation for the players to locate the ball and then they have to make a decision on what to do.  That hesitation is going to happen no matter what and that is enough time for the offense to create separation or give Allen a little extra time to attack deep.

I remember a game back during the Peyton manning colts era.  Maybe it was when edge James was still playing?  But the colts threw it 25 times in a row to open the game or something.  
 

Used play action out of the shotgun most snaps and it still worked.  After a while it started to work better as everyone thought they HAD to run it sometime!!!  

[Motorin']

10 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

I feel pretty good about what I think stats can and cannot tell me and I do place a lot of value on trending data as a tool for mapping and using probabilities.

I don't see a lot of value getting into the stat debates as I work with enough data analyst that I know they forget to look up sometimes from the numbers - it is a dead-end waste of time. For being such an infallible predictor the philosopher in me is pleased each and every time someone here or an organization like PFF who are immersed in stats come up wrong in their conclusions and predictions.

I will admit it makes me happy when they backtrack, talk about variables they did not factor in, and fail to render completely the game I love a into a joyless control chart. Perhaps they should just exchange statistics and skip the whole game playing thing
 
 

Meh - so I am old school, and I will continue to trust my eyes and how I think the Bills and their opponents perform in the context of each situation and game.

 

 

 

There's a problem when people confuse probability with the ability to predict the future, and modeling with reality... 

 

What's funny in the context of this debate, there's never been a game in NFL history where a team hasn't run the ball. Not once. 

 

So the idea that "you don't have to run the ball for play action to be effective" has never been tested. Not in a single game in NFL history. 

 

 

[MAJBobby]

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

 

It's impossible for the analytics to show that teams don't have to run the ball at all for play action to work. 

 

Why? Because there's never been a season of NFL football where any team has ran the ball less than 18 times per game over the course of a season. 

 

The conditions for the claim you guys are sticking to have never existed. Teams have to prepare to defend the run because teams run the ball. And play action passing work because defenses prepare to defend the run.

 

And teams have to prepare for the run because all teams run the ball...

 

 

 

 

Except I just showed you effective running is Irrelevant to the effectiveness of PA. 
 

i am sorry you just refuse to believe facts and love those coachisms. 
 

actual FACTS staring you right in the face and refuse to accept how sad actually 

Edited October 2, 2023 by MAJBobby

[WideNine]

Just now, Motorin' said:

 

There's a problem when people confuse probability with the ability to predict the future, and modeling with reality... 

 

What's funny in the context of this debate, there's never been a game in NFL history where a team hasn't run the ball. Not once. 

 

So the idea that "you don't have to run the ball for play action to be effective" has never been tested. Not in a single game in NFL history. 

 

 

 

Yeah - I saw that.

 

We can get into some crazy debates here. I guess some folks are saying if you never manifest the threat of a run it is the same effective threat - perhaps, but I think there are degrees of threats and how much reaction they garner. Guy threatening to punch you, a guy who has punched others threatening to punch you, a guy who has already punched you threatening to do it again. Something like that  

Play action looked good yesterday with Josh executing it from under center. I thought the play action from the gun looked a bit shaky on some of the exchanges and was not sure if they were trying for some RPO??





 

[WideNine]

42 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Except I just showed you effective running is Irrelevant to the effectiveness of PA. 
 

i am sorry you just refuse to believe facts and love those coachisms. 
 

actual FACTS staring you right in the face and refuse to accept how sad actually 

 

Some gems from that article of facts:

"The takeaway here is that once we’ve accounted for a team’s quarterback capabilities through PFF Grade (because that is always spot on), rushing rate and rushing performance relative to passing stats doesn’t tell us much about the effectiveness of their play-action usage."

I read that statement as more a lack of meaningful stats than a conclusive correlation one way or another between effectively running the ball and play action. Watering down the data creating a large sample size, individual team performance metrics (can they stop the run with their front 4 or do they have to commit more defenders...), situations like down and distance irrelevant because we all know play action on 3rd and short is just as effective as play action on 3rd and long right? 

The point here is that an NFL defender’s instincts are built on the foundation of those formative years. For that reason, NFL teams don’t need to establish the run, because the threatening nature of it has already been instilled throughout the amateur ranks.
(All facts here folks and no conjecture - who am I to argue with a guy who clearly never saw Edmunds play the run)

and lastly for the very folks that argued that you never need to run the ball at all - your article said this.
Obviously, if a team only ran play-action and never attempted to run the ball, defenses would begin to adjust. 
 

Begin to adjust 🤣

 

I am overwhelmed by the sheer factualness of this article.

 

 

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

Prior to yesterday's beat down, Allen was 18 of 23 on play-action passes for 245 yards and two touchdowns.

 

Yesterday in play-action, Josh was 9/11 for 206 yards and 3 TD's. 

 

Need Dorsey to keep that going.

 

Some folks will say that the run game helps, which is understandable, but most of the data suggests that PA effectiveness is not predicated on run game success. So regardless, this is when Josh is at his most lethal.

when the front and the second level has to read pass or run vs knowing pre snap, it helps the offense 

[LyndonvilleBill]

5 hours ago, RobbRiddick said:

I get a tingly feeling when I see Josh under center. It could be sexual but I think it's that part of me that loves the old school 

Wonder if Morse says the same thing?🤣🤣🤣🤣

[MAJBobby]

25 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Some gems from that article of facts:

"The takeaway here is that once we’ve accounted for a team’s quarterback capabilities through PFF Grade (because that is always spot on), rushing rate and rushing performance relative to passing stats doesn’t tell us much about the effectiveness of their play-action usage."

I read that statement as more a lack of meaningful stats than a conclusive correlation one way or another between effectively running the ball and play action. Watering down the data creating a large sample size, individual team performance metrics (can they stop the run with their front 4 or do they have to commit more defenders...), situations like down and distance irrelevant because we all know play action on 3rd and short is just as effective as play action on 3rd and long right? 

The point here is that an NFL defender’s instincts are built on the foundation of those formative years. For that reason, NFL teams don’t need to establish the run, because the threatening nature of it has already been instilled throughout the amateur ranks.
(All facts here folks and no conjecture - who am I to argue with a guy who clearly never saw Edmunds play the run)

and lastly for the very folks that argued that you never need to run the ball at all - your article said this.
Obviously, if a team only ran play-action and never attempted to run the ball, defenses would begin to adjust. 
 

Begin to adjust 🤣

 

I am overwhelmed by the sheer factualness of this article.

 

 

 

Good for you. Now go read one of the other 100s that have been written on this subject over the last decade plus. 

[GoBills808]

29 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Some gems from that article of facts:

"The takeaway here is that once we’ve accounted for a team’s quarterback capabilities through PFF Grade (because that is always spot on), rushing rate and rushing performance relative to passing stats doesn’t tell us much about the effectiveness of their play-action usage."

I read that statement as more a lack of meaningful stats than a conclusive correlation one way or another between effectively running the ball and play action. Watering down the data creating a large sample size, individual team performance metrics (can they stop the run with their front 4 or do they have to commit more defenders...), situations like down and distance irrelevant because we all know play action on 3rd and short is just as effective as play action on 3rd and long right? 

The point here is that an NFL defender’s instincts are built on the foundation of those formative years. For that reason, NFL teams don’t need to establish the run, because the threatening nature of it has already been instilled throughout the amateur ranks.
(All facts here folks and no conjecture - who am I to argue with a guy who clearly never saw Edmunds play the run)

and lastly for the very folks that argued that you never need to run the ball at all - your article said this.
Obviously, if a team only ran play-action and never attempted to run the ball, defenses would begin to adjust. 
 

Begin to adjust 🤣

 

I am overwhelmed by the sheer factualness of this article.

 

 

 

I read that as a lack of faith in PFF passer grade tbh😂😂

[WideNine]

29 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

Good for you. Now go read one of the other 100s that have been written on this subject over the last decade plus. 

 

Sorry bud.

 

I took that a bit far... believe what you want and it is all good.

 

Enjoy the Bills win.

 

 

 

[HardyBoy]

6 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I posted last week he needed to be under center a lot more and got blasted for it.

 

Who blasted you for that take? Joe Marino, Cover 1 guys, national media people were all saying the same thing and they were right.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

It would be interesting to know what they mean by play action. Does that include in shotgun where they play RPO or fake a handful as well?

No matter what Rex says I have to believe play action is more effective when there is an actual threat of a run. 

Of course it is also more effective when you have the lead and the defense is more likely to expect a run.

Running play action down 10 in the fourth quarter can't do much. Up 10 in the fourth quarter and it has to be lethal.