THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Squish

[Shaw66]

The Bills beat the Dolphins in Orchard Park on Sunday, 48-20.  It was one of those games where the main statistics don’t tell the story.  24 first downs to 20, 414 to 393 total yards.  Pretty even, huh?

 

Some numbers give a better picture.  Two takeaways to none.  Four sacks to two.  Nine QB hits to three. 

 

Whatever the stats say, ten minutes into the second quarter the Bills took control of the game and never let go.  That’s when the Bills scored their third consecutive touchdown to open the game, and that’s when the Bills’ defense took over.  The Dolphins couldn’t match that third touchdown, and before long it was 28-14, and then 31-14 to end the half.  The Dolphins opened the third quarter with a touchdown, but the Bills simply weren’t letting them back into the game.

 

It was a big game.  A really big game.  A Dolphins win and would have given them a two-game lead over the Bills in the AFC East.  In the weeks before, the Dolphins had shown a seemingly unstoppable, quick-strike offense the likes of which the NFL hadn’t seen in years. 

 

Sean McDermott, his coaches, and his players were up to the challenge.  They didn’t exactly shut down the Dolphins, except on third and fourth down, where the Dolphins were 3 for 10 and 0 for 3. 

 

The Bills were dominant. 

 

Because the Dolphins were going to get some points, the Bills didn’t need just the defense.  The offense had to show up, and it did.  Oh, boy, did it.  The new Josh Allen, the guy who’s learned how to put up gaudy completion percentages by taking the easy throw, was deadly.  He didn’t throw long unless he had single coverage – once to Diggs for a TD and once for an interference call, one TD to Davis, one incomplete to Shakir, maybe one or two more.  The rest of his throws were easy-peasy, to all sorts of receivers, and the chains kept moving. 

 

I’ve been focused on completion percentage lately.  It’s the key to success for Josh Allen and the Bills, and it’s no surprise that after three stellar outings, Allen leads the league in that category.

 

Why is completion percentage so important?   Because the more chances the skill position players have to make plays, the more yards the team gains, the more first downs the team gets.  More first downs means even more touches for the skill players.  It feeds itself.

 

Why are touches for skill players so important?  Because when the skill players get the ball, they have opportunities to make plays, and sometimes they do.  It was 34-20, still a game, when Micah Hyde intercepted Tua.  The Bills were on the verge of settling for a field goal when, on third and five, Allen took the easy throw to Harty in the left flat.  Allen’s throw was short, and Harty had to go to his knees to make the catch, short of the sticks.  He got up and made a nifty little run for the first down.   Allen hit Diggs for the touchdown on the next play.   Allen checking down to Harty, the smart play, and Harty’s run, were worth four points. 

 

The benefit of having a player like Allen is not to call his number as a regular part of the offense.  What makes Allen great is that when all else has failed, he can make plays that no one else in the league, except Mahomes, can make.  His short TD pass to Diggs over the middle was sweet and special.  His touchdown run was vintage Allen.  Oh, and when it comes to getting the ball to the skill players, no one throws the football like Allen.  The touchdown to Davis was simply perfect.

 

The Bills lineup was full of guys who made a difference:

 

Ed Oliver.  Over and over.

 

Diggs.  Oh, my.

 

Bernard.  Takeaway, again.  And more.

 

Murray.  The guy can move the ball.

 

Milano.  Oh, my, too. 

 

Knox.  Can you say run after catch?

 

Kincaid.  Josh’s new security blanket.

 

Up and down the lineup, guys made plays.

 

The Dolphins feature their speed.  The Bills feature  good football players, waves of them.  Defensive linemen, offensive lineman, defensive backs, running backs, receivers, everyone.  They’re smart, rugged, relentless.  Not the biggest, but big enough.  Not the fastest, but fast enough.  Not the best, maybe, but more than good enough.

 

I heard a coach say once that teams should break down the season into four quarters, and the objective is to go at least 3-1, every quarter season.  After the loss to the Jets, and given what the Dolphins had been doing, 3-1 required a special effort.  Mission accomplished.

 

On to London. 

 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 2, 2023 by Shaw66

[Cash]

Great post, as always! I was very impressed by the Bills yesterday. Special props to Dorsey - the play calling was about as good as I’ve seen, and he and Allen seemed to be perfectly on the same page. 
 

There was a 3rd and 2 fairly early on where we had a wide open receiver  in the flat who easily picked up the first. Those are the kind of easy money plays that guys like Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan have made careers off of. IMO, they’ve generally been lacking in our offense, especially since Daboll left. That one yesterday was very encouraging and I hope to see more like it. 

[Big Turk]

The Dolphins are still Little Brother.  Have been since the 90s and Kelly-Marino. Sometimes they think they can take on Big Bro cause they kicked their little friends asses, but the Big Bro puts them in a headlock and gives them a nougie and makes them yell "Uncle" before laughing at them and shoving them away and telling them to "Go play with your friends". 

 

All that motion and misdirection works far better against undisciplined and undetailed defenses that are not fundamentally sounds far better than it works against a defense like ours that might be the most fundamentally sound in the entire NFL. We simply don't go for it.  This forces Tua to play to his weakness which is having to play off script and having to hold the ball because his first and sometimes second reads are taken away. 

 

They will still make some plays and score some points because they have a ton of speed and talent, but they aren't putting up 70 or anything close to it.

 

That's the difference between Tua and Allen...when Tua can make the easy play and his first read is there and wide open, he is awesome.  When it's not...he can struggle a bit.  Allen excels at the off-script AND can still kill you when the easy stuff is there too, sometimes he just doesn't want to take it...but it seems like he has finally decided to take it...maybe Steinfeld told him no post game action if he plays hero ball, because he has made a concerted effort to play smart, yet still aggressive football and it's really paying off...Bills become the first team in NFL history to win 3 consecutive games by 28+ points after losing their first game.

Edited October 2, 2023 by Big Turk

[WhoTom]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

The Bills were on the verge of settling for a field goal when, on third and five, Allen took the easy throw to Harty in the left flat.  Allen’s throw was short, and Harty had to go to his knees to make the catch, short of the sticks.  He got up and made a nifty little run for the first down.   Allen hit Diggs for the touchdown on the next play.   Allen checking down to Harty, the smart play, and Harty’s run, were worth four points. 

 

That play, plus the Knox "angry run," Diggs' TD, and Kincaid's YAC showed Josh that he can take the safer throws and trust his receivers to turn them into "hero" plays. The fact that he's taking these high-percentage throws shows that he's becoming more mature. And the fact that he was rewarded for those decisions makes it likely that he'll continue doing it.

 

And Dorsey's game plan was brilliant. It encouraged Josh to do exactly that - look for the shorter plays early and let that open up the big plays later.

 

 

 

[Big Turk]

3 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

 

That play, plus the Knox "angry run," Diggs' TD, and Kincaid's YAC showed Josh that he can take the safer throws and trust his receivers to turn them into "hero" plays. The fact that he's taking these high-percentage throws shows that he's becoming more mature. And the fact that he was rewarded for those decisions makes it likely that he'll continue doing it.

 

And Dorsey's game plan was brilliant. It encouraged Josh to do exactly that - look for the shorter plays early and let that open up the big plays later.

 

 

 

 

Allen is completing 75% of his passes...that's ridiculous.  If he continues playing like this, I don't see how the Bills don't score 30 every game, they will be unstoppable.

[Shaw66]

4 minutes ago, WhoTom said:

 

That play, plus the Knox "angry run," Diggs' TD, and Kincaid's YAC showed Josh that he can take the safer throws and trust his receivers to turn them into "hero" plays. The fact that he's taking these high-percentage throws shows that he's becoming more mature. And the fact that he was rewarded for those decisions makes it likely that he'll continue doing it.

 

And Dorsey's game plan was brilliant. It encouraged Josh to do exactly that - look for the shorter plays early and let that open up the big plays later.

 

 

 

The offense was simply beautiful. 

 

And so was the defense.   

 

It was high quality football.  

[Blackbeard]

The way this team is clicking in all three phases of the game is exceptional.  AND, as an added bonus, the coaching and play calling has been incredible.

 

This is a VERY VERY good team.  I would be ALL in, if GM, in bringing in anyone capable of helping with the Tre White issue.   THIS IS THE TIME.  

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, Blackbeard said:

The way this team is clicking in all three phases of the game is exceptional.  AND, as an added bonus, the coaching and play calling has been incredible.

 

This is a VERY VERY good team.  I would be ALL in, if GM, in bringing in anyone capable of helping with the Tre White issue.   THIS IS THE TIME.  

 

They will be fine without Tre...Elam is going to surprise a lot of people I bet when he gets his chance.

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

Allen is completing 75% of his passes...that's ridiculous.  If he continues playing like this, I don't see how the Bills don't score 30 every game, they will be unstoppable.

When I started talking about completion percentage a week or two ago, I compared the Bills to the 49ers.  They have unbelievable skill players, but the Bills aren't too shabby.   What I said was that Allen has to play like Brock Purdy - just take the easy throw and let the skill players do their thing.  The difference, of course, is that when you need your quarterback to make a play, the 49ers have Brock Purdy.  The Bills have Allen.   

 

 

[Big Turk]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

When I started talking about completion percentage a week or two ago, I compared the Bills to the 49ers.  They have unbelievable skill players, but the Bills aren't too shabby.   What I said was that Allen has to play like Brock Purdy - just take the easy throw and let the skill players do their thing.  The difference, of course, is that when you need your quarterback to make a play, the 49ers have Brock Purdy.  The Bills have Allen.   

 

 

 

Sometimes you watch the ball on those out routes across the field and think the DB has a chance to make a play on the ball but then you see how fast the ball gets there and the DB is still nowhere near the Bills player...that's when you realize how special his arm strength is compared to virtually everyone else.

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Big Turk said:

 

They will be fine without Tre...Elam is going to surprise a lot of people I bet when he gets his chance.

I think you're right about this.  Bill are going with Benford and Jackson, both of whom can play, with Elam now working his way back into the rotation.  The Bills will miss White, for sure, but they'll be fine. 

 

I feel so bad for White.  What a shame.  

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

Sometimes you watch the ball on those out routes across the field and think the DB has a chance to make a play on the ball but then you see how fast the ball gets there and the DB is still nowhere near the Bills player...that's when you realize how special his arm strength is compared to virtually everyone else.

Did you watch Mac Jones?   You've gotta be a REALLY smart thrower if you have a noodle arm like his.  Allen is now learning to be a really smart thrower, AND he has an arm that can make the throws Jones dreams of. 

[Blackbeard]

7 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

They will be fine without Tre...Elam is going to surprise a lot of people I bet when he gets his chance.

Man, I hope.

 

Tre has a reputation that Elam doesn't though.  I hope you're right in the long term.

[Beach]

31 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

The Bills beat the Dolphins in Orchard Park on Sunday, 48-20.  It was one of those games where the main statistics don’t tell the story.  24 first downs to 20, 414 to 393 total yards.  Pretty even, huh?

 

Some numbers give a better picture.  Two takeaways to none.  Four sacks to two.  Nine QB hits to three. 

 

Whatever the stats say, ten minutes into the second quarter the Bills took control of the game and never let go.  That’s when the Bills scored their third consecutive touchdown to open the game, and that’s when the Bills’ defense took over.  The Jets couldn’t match that third touchdown, and before long it was 28-14, and then 31-14 to end the half.  The Dolphins opened the third quarter with a touchdown, but the Bills simply weren’t letting them back into the game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

good write up!  just noticed 1 typo.

[jimmy10]

I’m not an X’s and O’s guy, but I’m a sports guy, and while I can’t diagnose and break things down with expertise, I can pay attention and get the overall vibe of what’s happening.
 

What I saw yesterday was two very strong offenses start out going tit for tat, straight to a 14-14 score. It had the potential to be a long day, track meet, shootout, whatever you want to call it.
 

But I also knew if the D eventually clamped down as they tend to do, and Josh executed smartly and efficiently, there was no reason we couldn’t come out on top. And boy, is that ever what happened.
 

We will see the Fish again, everyone knows that, but I think we learned that as long as the D keeps everything in front of them (no small feat with the burners Miami has) and takes away Tua’s quick strike first read, they aren’t 70-point world beaters anymore. 
 

What a game. Once we were up 2-3 scores, it was the best sustained energy I’ve felt in the stadium in a long time. 
 

edit: I’ll also say I LOVE how the Bills/Fish rivalry finally has some real spice to it again. It’s been a while. 

Edited October 2, 2023 by jimmy10

[Shaw66]

2 minutes ago, Beach said:

good write up!  just noticed 1 typo.

Thanks.   I did that twice; I found it once before I published, didn't see the other one. 

 

I was writing while I was watching the Jets last night. I was disappointed that they didn't get it done last night.   

[Big Turk]

10 minutes ago, Blackbeard said:

Man, I hope.

 

Tre has a reputation that Elam doesn't though.  I hope you're right in the long term.

 

He played very well late in the year last year.

16 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think you're right about this.  Bill are going with Benford and Jackson, both of whom can play, with Elam now working his way back into the rotation.  The Bills will miss White, for sure, but they'll be fine. 

 

I feel so bad for White.  What a shame.  

Did you watch Mac Jones?   You've gotta be a REALLY smart thrower if you have a noodle arm like his.  Allen is now learning to be a really smart thrower, AND he has an arm that can make the throws Jones dreams of. 

 

Yeah that looked like a 25 arm strength Super Tecmo Bowl Throw from Jones that just hung up there forever 😂

[Billsatlastin2018]

That was an absolute mauling of the mammals! And prior to yesterday, it wasn’t only Nick Wright that had the Fish at or nearest the top of the heap. That’s what happens when you lay a beating on someone that hadn’t been seen in multiple decades! 
 

Which obviously elevates the Bills neck and neck with the 9ers and the Chiefs as NFL best in 2033. Still, unlike the prior 2 seasons, I am not jumping out of my shoes & skin. On paper… the Bills should go on a 7-0 run- including the sell the stock Bungles with their star QB clearly hobbled. But, that is why you play the games.

 

The Bills had the NFL’s 3rd/5th most difficult schedule, so it is critical that they try and run it up to 10-1, before the last half of the sked sets them up @Philly, @Chiefs, Home to the Girls @ Chargers and finishing at the Fish. A 3-2 finish in those should have them neck and neck for that critical #1 Seed.

 

We shall see,beginning with Jax in Blimey.

 

GO BILLS!

[HappyDays]

Shaw - You'll enjoy the first section of this article:

 

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2023/10/2/23899225/nfl-week-4-hot-read-josh-allen-buffalo-bills-miami-dolphins-philadelphia-eagles

 

It discusses exactly what you've been saying, which is that when Allen takes the easy throws 80% of the time it keeps the offense on schedule, and he can still sprinkle a few 1 of 1 plays throughout the game.

[AlfaBill]

2 hours ago, WhoTom said:

 

That play, plus the Knox "angry run," Diggs' TD, and Kincaid's YAC showed Josh that he can take the safer throws and trust his receivers to turn them into "hero" plays. The fact that he's taking these high-percentage throws shows that he's becoming more mature. And the fact that he was rewarded for those decisions makes it likely that he'll continue doing it.

 

And Dorsey's game plan was brilliant. It encouraged Josh to do exactly that - look for the shorter plays early and let that open up the big plays later.

 

 

 

Maybe josh trusts his mates to actually make a play this year? 

[TFBillsfan]

So many positives from yesterday that there are simply too many to name.

 

What I loved was the Bills attacking offensively and defensively combined with physicality! It’s been awhile since we’ve seen that play out on both sides of the ball.