2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[GoBills808]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

At the same point, Lamar and the Ravens have been the most consistent team all year. They take leads early and just win games. I can’t definitely see Allen having worst td numbers, cutting down on turnovers, and winning the MVP. 

I can't see any world Allen has worse TD numbers and wins the MVP simply because of how much your team's record impacts the award

 

if Allen has fewer TDs we will win fewer games point blank period, meanwhile the Ravens are already a top5 scoring offense

[C.Biscuit97]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

I can't see any world Allen has worse TD numbers and wins the MVP simply because of how much your team's record impacts the award

 

if Allen has fewer TDs we will win fewer games point blank period, meanwhile the Ravens are already a top5 scoring offense

The Bills could have put away games in the first half if there weren’t such an up and down offense. Teams naturally take the air out of the ball when they have leads. 
 

 

[GoBills808]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

The Bills could have put away games in the first half if there weren’t such an up and down offense. Teams naturally take the air out of the ball when they have leads. 
 

 

that's just not how NFL games work

 

 

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

that's just not how NFL games work

 

 

You’re right. Guys like Zack Wilson, Easton stick, and Mac Jones are known for their comeback abilities and ability to light up the scoreboards with their arms 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

You’re right. Guys like Zack Wilson, Easton stick, and Mac Jones are known for their comeback abilities and ability to light up the scoreboards with their arms 

Mac Jones literally lead his team to a comeback win against us on their last drive

[C.Biscuit97]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Mac Jones literally lead his team to a comeback win against us on their last drive

In a game we were losing the entire game again. Find me any games where JONES OR Wilson rallied when down by double digits. If you put those guys in situations where they have to pass to win, they can’t do it. 

[DapperCam]

15 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

In a game we were losing the entire game again. Find me any games where JONES OR Wilson rallied when down by double digits. If you put those guys in situations where they have to pass to win, they can’t do it. 

How did Mac Jones and the Patriots have the lead the entire game? Was it because of Josh Allen? Or was it because the defense allowed twice the average points to a bottom-3 offense in the league? Including an incredibly unclutch 2 minute TD drill to a terrible QB that lost his job a few weeks later.

 

Pats defense season avg: 21.5 points allowed

 

Bills offense that day: 25 points scored

 

Pats offense season avg: 13.9 points scored

 

Bills defense that day: 29 points allowed

 

So one unit won their matchup including a clutch end of game drive, and the other unit epically failed including an unclutch end of game drive given up.

I will give you that the Bills offense did give the Pats a short field starting at the 45 yard line, but they still way underperformed even including that fact.

 

[C.Biscuit97]

2 hours ago, DapperCam said:

How did Mac Jones and the Patriots have the lead the entire game? Was it because of Josh Allen? Or was it because the defense allowed twice the average points to a bottom-3 offense in the league? Including an incredibly unclutch 2 minute TD drill to a terrible QB that lost his job a few weeks later.

 

Pats defense season avg: 21.5 points allowed

 

Bills offense that day: 25 points scored

 

Pats offense season avg: 13.9 points scored

 

Bills defense that day: 29 points allowed

 

So one unit won their matchup including a clutch end of game drive, and the other unit epically failed including an unclutch end of game drive given up.

I will give you that the Bills offense did give the Pats a short field starting at the 45 yard line, but they still way underperformed even including that fact.

 

This is where I think the team part of football gets forgotten. The offense was bad for like 75% of that game. Put the defense on tough spots (defense also has improved since that game). 
 

zero excuse to let Jones to let drive down the field like that. But this year, given the injuries and high priced guys on offense (that matters), I expect a lot more out of the offense. It’s been really inconsistent for the players we have. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This is where I think the team part of football gets forgotten. The offense was bad for like 75% of that game. Put the defense on tough spots (defense also has improved since that game). 
 

zero excuse to let Jones to let drive down the field like that. But this year, given the injuries and high priced guys on offense (that matters), I expect a lot more out of the offense. It’s been really inconsistent for the players we have. 

Lol who are these high priced guys on offense

 

When we spent the 2nd most in the league on defense this season?

 

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Lol who are these high priced guys on offense

 

When we spent the 2nd most in the league on defense this season?

 

Am I being punked haha? 
Basically, top 5 cap hits at QB, WR, C, & TE. Top 10 cap hit at LT.

 

our defense has old guys and a lot of injuried ones (Milano, White, the ghost of Von). Those 3 guys probably make up like 75% of the defense cap and they don’t play.

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, DapperCam said:

How did Mac Jones and the Patriots have the lead the entire game? Was it because of Josh Allen? Or was it because the defense allowed twice the average points to a bottom-3 offense in the league? Including an incredibly unclutch 2 minute TD drill to a terrible QB that lost his job a few weeks later.

 

Pats defense season avg: 21.5 points allowed

 

Bills offense that day: 25 points scored

 

Pats offense season avg: 13.9 points scored

 

Bills defense that day: 29 points allowed

 

So one unit won their matchup including a clutch end of game drive, and the other unit epically failed including an unclutch end of game drive given up.

I will give you that the Bills offense did give the Pats a short field starting at the 45 yard line, but they still way underperformed even including that fact.

 

Bills don't ever take the lead without the defense forcing a major TO and giving Josh a short field in that Pats game, BTW.

 

Almost every "winnable" game the Bills lost this year, the offense either threw the game away (NYJ, DEN) or just didn't show up.

 

In the Jax game, the offense didn't score in the first half until 1:14 left to go.  They didn't break 13 points until 2 min left in the fourth.  0 minutes played with a lead.

 

In the Pats game, the offense had 10 points scored until 5 min left in the fourth.  0 minutes played with a lead.

 

In the Bengals game, the offense had 10 points scored until 3 minutes left in the fourth.  0 minutes played with a lead.

 

In the Broncos game, the offense had 15 points until 1:55 left in the fourth. They gave the Broncos a free 6 points with back to back turnovers in a minute before the first half. 0 minutes played with a lead.

 

There's a reason Dorsey got canned and McD was preaching "complementary football." Scoring points and playing with a lead is good. TO's and not scoring points and making your ragtag defense try to keep us in it so you can pull a rabbit out of your hat in the last two minutes is less good.

 

None of this is to say the defense is blameless in any of those losses. But if the team goes as far as Josh Allen and the offense takes them, the offense did their damnedest to take us to a lost season in the first 12 games.

 

There's exactly one game this season where you can say the offense played pretty great and the defense blew it for us, imo. And it's the Eagles game. That's it.

Edited January 11 by FireChans

[GoBills808]

40 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Am I being punked haha? 
Basically, top 5 cap hits at QB, WR, C, & TE. Top 10 cap hit at LT.

 

our defense has old guys and a lot of injuried ones (Milano, White, the ghost of Von). Those 3 guys probably make up like 75% of the defense cap and they don’t play.

Allen is 11th highest cap hit in 2023 for QBs

 

Dawkins 14th for LT

 

Diggs 7th, Knox 14th

 

 

On defense we have a top5 and a top20 safety cap hits plus the 2nd overall DB 

 

We spent a ton on defense comparatively and about league average on offense in 2023, 2nd overall in the league in defensive spending vs 12th overall on offense

 

https://overthecap.com/positional-spending

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Allen is 11th highest cap hit in 2023 for QBs

 

Dawkins 14th for LT

 

Diggs 7th, Knox 14th

 

 

On defense we have a top5 and a top20 safety cap hits plus the 2nd overall DB 

 

We spent a ton on defense comparatively and about league average on offense in 2023, 2nd overall in the league in defensive spending vs 12th overall on offense

 

https://overthecap.com/positional-spending

This is largely based on funny money right?

 

Dolphins are third in the NFL in defensive cap hit and below the Bills in offensive cap hit for 2023, and no one would argue they have prioritized defensive spending over offensive, right?

 

Also the 49ers have the third lowest offensive cap hit in the NFL in 2023.  They must really be neglecting the offensive weapons.

Edited January 11 by FireChans

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

This is largely based on funny money right?

 

Dolphins are third in the NFL in defensive cap hit and below the Bills in offensive cap hit for 2023, and no one would argue they have prioritized defensive spending over offensive, right?

It's a rolling year by year cap hit so it will be different, often significantly, from year to year but the guy brought up 2023

 

For bills we always spend big on defense and not on offense. It's been that way since this regime took over, you can go back and look yourself

 

Dolphins have definitely spent big on defense 

 

Plus they still have Tua on a cheap deal, they have invested a lot on defense and they still haven't even paid Wilkins yet

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It's a rolling year by year cap hit so it will be different, often significantly, from year to year but the guy brought up 2023

 

For bills we always spend big on defense and not on offense. It's been that way since this regime took over, you can go back and look yourself

 

Dolphins have definitely spent big on defense 

 

Plus they still have Tua on a cheap deal, they have invested a lot on defense and they still haven't even paid Wilkins yet

I mean, I guess, but the Chiefs in 2021 had less offensive cap hit than the Bills (they had Tyreek and Kelce at this time) and the highest defensive cap hit in football (with a pretty mediocre group of players).

 

I think it's just a bad way to judge.  Between extensions, restructures, rookie deals, there's far too many ways to manipulate the cap numbers to make this an accurate way to track priorities.

 

Top 5-10 contracts and AAV would probably be better in terms of dollars spent evaluation. But that would still neglect players on rookie deals.

 

We could draft offensive positions with every pick next year and our cap numbers would probably be even more lopsided with defense > offense because of it.

 

The real problem I think illustrated by this point is the Bills have not acquired enough good offensive players to even dedicate major cap dollars to, yet.

 

We either acquired or drafted lots of defensive stars over the last 6-7 years.  That results in lots of ballooning contracts over that time period.  We didn't do the same with offense.

 

If Tre White was not a good enough player to warrant a big time extension, the numbers would probably be far closer to even since 2020.

Edited January 11 by FireChans

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I mean, I guess, but the Chiefs in 2021 had less offensive cap hit than the Bills (they had Tyreek and Kelce at this time) and the highest defensive cap hit in football (with a pretty mediocre group of players).

 

I think it's just a bad way to judge.  Between extensions, restructures, rookie deals, there's far too many ways to manipulate the cap numbers to make this an accurate way to track priorities.

 

Top 5-10 contracts and AAV would probably be better in terms of dollars spent evaluation. But that would still neglect players on rookie deals.

 

We could draft offensive positions with every pick next year and our cap numbers would probably be even more lopsided with defense > offense because of it.

 

The real problem I think illustrated by this point is the Bills have not acquired enough good offensive players to even dedicate major cap dollars to, yet.

 

We either acquired or drafted lots of defensive stars over the last 6-7 years.  That results in lots of ballooning contracts over that time period.  We didn't do the same with offense.

 

If Tre White was not a good enough player to warrant a big time extension, the numbers would probably be far closer to even since 2020.

The guy I was talking to was using contacts and cap space to judge, I was just responding

 

And I agree that we don't prioritize obtaining offensive talent

[Scott7975]

 

This is a good watch

 

 

Edited January 14 by Scott7975

[Saxum]

I hope Texans look at previous games to see how to limit Lamar and eliminate Ravens from playoffs. 

[transplantbillsfan]

On 1/10/2024 at 3:55 PM, C.Biscuit97 said:

This is where I think the team part of football gets forgotten. The offense was bad for like 75% of that game. Put the defense on tough spots (defense also has improved since that game). 
 

zero excuse to let Jones to let drive down the field like that. But this year, given the injuries and high priced guys on offense (that matters), I expect a lot more out of the offense. It’s been really inconsistent for the players we have. 

 

There's something to be said about how a QB plays when the game is on the line and in 2023 in the 4th quarter, Allen has the 3rd highest Passer Rating among qualifying QBs (behind Purdy & Carr) and the best Completion %.

 

Allen also has the 2nd most Game Winning Drives in the NFL IN 2023 with 4. Geno Smith has 5. Imagine if our D held against the Patriots, Broncos and Eagles?

 

And overall, there's still the whole thing about Allen leading the NFL in total TDs AND total yards.

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

This is a good watch

 

 

 

Pretty much captures what I just said

[ToGoGo]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

There's something to be said about how a QB plays when the game is on the line and in 2023 in the 4th quarter, Allen has the 3rd highest Passer Rating among qualifying QBs (behind Purdy & Carr) and the best Completion %.

 

Allen also has the 2nd most Game Winning Drives in the NFL IN 2023 with 4. Geno Smith has 5. Imagine if our D held against the Patriots, Broncos and Eagles?

 

And overall, there's still the whole thing about Allen leading the NFL in total TDs AND total yards.

It’s all obvious who the best player in the NFL is once you ignore the surface level stuff. 
 

If we win a SB this year, all the narratives will immediately change and all the things you note will come in the forefront. 
 

“OMG did you see what Allen just did? Who cares about the 1 pick he threw that was tipped, did you see what he did the next drive?”  
 

It’s a matter of time. 

During SB media week, people need extra content to talk about. That’s when the stories will dig deeper on Allen and the truth will come to light. 
 

Honestly, just making it to the SB would be enough for narratives to permanently change. Even with a SB loss, as long as he doesn’t become a INT machine and plays a respectable game, the narratives will change.