2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[transplantbillsfan]

44 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Nobody who votes for the MVP is gonna watch this.  All they see is Josh 50% completions, under 200 yards and a narrow win against a bad team that also already beat us earlier this year.  They will see 4 turnovers that the offense only managed 13 points on.  
 

That’s the issue, no one is going to look into reasons outside of Allen for pass game struggles.  
 

So he has no chance to unseat Lamar, especially with Lamar sitting this week, because Allen and the offense is coming off 2 dud games against 2 bad teams where the last time they saw Lamar he and the Ravens destroyed the 2 seed in the AFC after destroying what everyone felt was the best team in the NFL with the Niners.

 

So doesn’t matter if Josh throws 10 TDs this week, he isn’t going to unseat Lamar at this point in the voters eyes.  

 

I was really posting that in the context of people like @BullBuchanan who are flipping out about Allen's play on Sunday.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Nobody who votes for the MVP is gonna watch this.  All they see is Josh 50% completions, under 200 yards and a narrow win against a bad team that also already beat us earlier this year.  They will see 4 turnovers that the offense only managed 13 points on.  
 

That’s the issue, no one is going to look into reasons outside of Allen for pass game struggles.  
 

So he has no chance to unseat Lamar, especially with Lamar sitting this week, because Allen and the offense is coming off 2 dud games against 2 bad teams where the last time they saw Lamar he and the Ravens destroyed the 2 seed in the AFC after destroying what everyone felt was the best team in the NFL with the Niners.

 

So doesn’t matter if Josh throws 10 TDs this week, he isn’t going to unseat Lamar at this point in the voters eyes.  

That ain’t wrong but it is kind of sad…the NE defense we saw Sunday was significantly better than the Miami defense missing Howard,Chubb,Phillips,baker, and Ramsey playing hurt that Baltimore saw 

 

of course we get two games to light up that Miami defense though haha so it evens out 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I was really posting that in the context of people like @BullBuchanan who are flipping out about Allen's play on Sunday.

 

Oh gotcha, I thought you meant it as a defense to why Allen might win MVP, so my first thought is none of the voters are gonna look past the surface level when it comes to their vote.  But I get why you posted it now

[C.Biscuit97]

59 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

That ain’t wrong but it is kind of sad…the NE defense we saw Sunday was significantly better than the Miami defense missing Howard,Chubb,Phillips,baker, and Ramsey playing hurt that Baltimore saw 

 

of course we get two games to light up that Miami defense though haha so it evens out 

Stop. Since Ramsey came back, Miami had one of the best defenses in the nfl. Chubb got hurt with like 3 minutes left and the game was over for quarter’s before (that’s why it’s so dumb he was out there at that point). 
 

I get being a homer but some of you just make up things. Lamar was dominant against a defense that had been really good, 

[Alphadawg7]

58 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

That ain’t wrong but it is kind of sad…the NE defense we saw Sunday was significantly better than the Miami defense missing Howard,Chubb,Phillips,baker, and Ramsey playing hurt that Baltimore saw 

 

of course we get two games to light up that Miami defense though haha so it evens out 

 

Honestly, I think Lamar won it when the Ravens dismantled the team everyone thought was the heavy favorite for the Super Bowl winner in SF.  Then smashing the #2 seed in the AFC in an encore I think was the nail in the coffin on anyone elses bid for the MVP.  

[C.Biscuit97]

13 hours ago, DapperCam said:

Does anybody else find the Ravens fan argument of “if you watched games, then you would get it” as a hand wavy excuse for Jackson’s middle-of-road stats utterly unconvincing?

 

Like what exactly has he done to be more impressive than Allen or even Prescott? Once a narrative gets rolling, forget about it. That momentum is impossible to stop.

Um, we would be making the same one if our offense jumped on teams and had games finished by halftime like they have in 90% of their games this year. 
 

they are murdering teams from the opening whistle and don’t have to try to rally or stat pad. I would have love to have Allen have as efficient of a season as Lamar just had because we were taking care of business from the start of the game. 

 

Allen has as many MVP moments in a game as any qb. But to act like he and the offense hasn’t been maddenly inconsistent is delusional.  

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I was really posting that in the context of people like @BullBuchanan who are flipping out about Allen's play on Sunday.

 

But to be honest...I do think that against the Pats that was one of the worst days I have seen Josh in terms of accuracy and throwing the ball since his rookie year.  

 

I also am wondering if there is something wrong with his throwing shoulder because he is coming up short or late on a lot of throws this season that he normally isn't.  I know there is twitter fool saying there is a shoulder injury since the first quarter of week 1, and hard to say if its true or not, but I do have to say his arm doesn't look as strong as it has in the past when he was scrambling and throwing on the run.  He used to just flick it a mile downfield and now he just seems way short a lot.  He obviously still has plenty of velocity, but I feel like something is impacting Josh's ability to make the harder throws that few can make, and many only he can make.  

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Honestly, I think Lamar won it when the Ravens dismantled the team everyone thought was the heavy favorite for the Super Bowl winner in SF.  Then smashing the #2 seed in the AFC in an encore I think was the nail in the coffin on anyone elses bid for the MVP.  

I know you are one of the biggest Allen guys on this board so thank you for the reasonable outlook. 
 

Allen now from what he was his rookie year is a startling growth. The next step, and there are a bunch of reasons why, is to be more consistent. He can have less tds next year and be a much better player (and potentially MVP). 

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

I know you are one of the biggest Allen guys on this board so thank you for the reasonable outlook. 
 

Allen now from what he was his rookie year is a startling growth. The next step, and there are a bunch of reasons why, is to be more consistent. He can have less tds next year and be a much better player (and potentially MVP). 

 

Not afraid to admit I love Allen, but I am also not delusional about him either.  I just posted above that this whole season I have seen a substantially higher number of passes coming up short or late that resulted in incompletions to open guys or even INT's.  Many of those when he is making those higher degree of difficulty throws he has previously made look easy.  

 

So I actually think this report about his shoulder being hurt week 1 and playing through it might have some validity to it.  With an arm like his, he still has plenty of velocity, but I think he looks human this year on these throws where few or only Josh can make with ease in the past.  

 

I have also noticed a significant increase in laser fast balls on shorter easier throws where its not as necessary and that are harder to catch and have resulted in drops or tipped ball interceptions.  While at first glance that seems contradictory to the shoulder may be hurt theory, but I think it actually enforces it as it feels like Josh is over compensating at times on these shorter throws because he hasn't the same juice on other more difficult throws he is used to and generally having to try and throw it harder than he has had to in the past.

 

Allen has an MVP case statistically between his combined total yards and total TD's.  But the unbiased person will say the Bills have losses against Jets, Pats, Broncos, Jags, and Bengals because Josh and the offense din't play very well.  Then you add in close wins where the offense didn't play well with Giants, Chargers, Pats 2nd game and you have half the season (8 games) where Allen and the offense didn't play like Allen was an MVP.  

 

Difficult to win MVP when the offense he is leading has played below capabilities in half the season to the point where our playoff spot is still in jeopardy in the final week of the season.  Not to mention the Eagles loss while a good one overall for Allen and the offense, we still had a bad Allen INT lead to the Bills losing control of a game they still could have one, but ultimately lost.

 

Allen is my favorite player to watch play now of all time (previously that was Barry Sanders)...I will make an MVP bet on him every preseason because he will likely be in the convo every year of his career barring injury.  I think he will win one at some point and I think he will win a SB at some point as well where is the SB MVP.  But I am not gonna make a case for him to be MVP when he legitimately shouldn't be MVP.  Even with my bet in limbo, I couldn't consciously vote for Allen even if he throws 10 TD's against Miami.  

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Not afraid to admit I love Allen, but I am also not delusional about him either.  I just posted above that this whole season I have seen a substantially higher number of passes coming up short or late that resulted in incompletions to open guys or even INT's.  Many of those when he is making those higher degree of difficulty throws he has previously made look easy.  

 

So I actually think this report about his shoulder being hurt week 1 and playing through it might have some validity to it.  With an arm like his, he still has plenty of velocity, but I think he looks human this year on these throws where few or only Josh can make with ease in the past.  

 

I have also noticed a significant increase in laser fast balls on shorter easier throws where its not as necessary and that are harder to catch and have resulted in drops or tipped ball interceptions.  While at first glance that seems contradictory to the shoulder may be hurt theory, but I think it actually enforces it as it feels like Josh is over compensating at times on these shorter throws because he hasn't the same juice on other more difficult throws he is used to and generally having to try and throw it harder than he has had to in the past.

 

Allen has an MVP case statistically between his combined total yards and total TD's.  But the unbiased person will say the Bills have losses against Jets, Pats, Broncos, Jags, and Bengals because Josh and the offense din't play very well.  Then you add in close wins where the offense didn't play well with Giants, Chargers, Pats 2nd game and you have half the season (8 games) where Allen and the offense didn't play like Allen was an MVP.  

 

Difficult to win MVP when the offense he is leading has played below capabilities in half the season to the point where our playoff spot is still in jeopardy in the final week of the season.  Not to mention the Eagles loss while a good one overall for Allen and the offense, we still had a bad Allen INT lead to the Bills losing control of a game they still could have one, but ultimately lost.

 

Allen is my favorite player to watch play now of all time (previously that was Barry Sanders)...I will make an MVP bet on him every preseason because he will likely be in the convo every year of his career barring injury.  I think he will win one at some point and I think he will win a SB at some point as well where is the SB MVP.  But I am not gonna make a case for him to be MVP when he legitimately shouldn't be MVP.  Even with my bet in limbo, I couldn't consciously vote for Allen even if he throws 10 TD's against Miami.  

 

Agree with everything you have said. The way I'd sum it up in a sentence is: 

 

We have been used to 'Josh Allen Experience' games in the past but this has been a 'Josh Allen Experience' season.

[VW82]

13 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

On Josh’s 15 rushing TDs, he scores from an average of 6 yards out. It’s pretty much a 50/50 split from inside the 5 and outside the 5. This isn’t Jalen Hurts getting carried in by his teammates 11 times from the 1 yard line. 
 

As for Damien Harris being the catalyst for Josh’s “misleading” TD numbers inside the 5… no. He has 8 from inside the 5 yard line and 5 of those have come the last 3 weeks… Damien Harris last played on 10/15. 
 

The last 3 weeks have been *must win* all that says to me is with our backs against the wall we want the ball in the hands of our best player. 

If this was any other team, a big RB/FB would be getting those carries. We're using Josh because we have no choice. I guess you could say that helps make his MVP case but I think it's goosed his TD numbers. He shouldn't get MVP because we're using him as our lead RB inside five yards. 

[JGMcD2]

3 minutes ago, VW82 said:

If this was any other team, a big RB/FB would be getting those carries. We're using Josh because we have no choice. I guess you could say that helps make his MVP case but I think it's goosed his TD numbers. He shouldn't get MVP because we're using him as our lead RB inside five yards. 

But Cam Newton was allowed to be MVP for the exact same reason? Jalen Hurts was the runner up last year and favorite for most of this year for the exact same reason before he threw up all over himself? Give me a break. 

Edited January 5 by JGMcD2

[VW82]

15 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

But Cam Newton was allowed to be MVP for the exact same reason? Jalen Hurts was the runner up last year and favorite for most of this year for the exact same reason before he threw up all over himself? Give me a break. 

Let's be real for a second and admit he doesn't deserve it based on his play. He has one signature win (Miami). He got his OC fired. We might still miss the playoffs despire currently ranking 4th in total points allowed. This wasn't even one of his top 3 seasons so far. I'd put last year's elbow injury season ahead of this one. 

 

Cam won MVP because Carolina won 15 games. Hurtz won 14. Lamar is going to win 13 or 14. But Purdy and Dak deserve it over Josh too. Go look at Dak's advanced passing stats. Ontgt% Dak is 2nd, Josh is 9th. Dak is 1st in bad throw%. These guys have way less turnovers which are a heck of lot more important than rushing TDs that you would've scored anyway giving it to your RB. 

 

Josh is a phenomenal player. He'll get his MVP in some other year. You can keep your fake MVP award that isn't deserved. 

Edited January 5 by VW82

[DapperCam]

10 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

So doesn’t matter if Josh throws 10 TDs this week, he isn’t going to unseat Lamar at this point in the voters eyes.  

I’m trying to imagine a scenario where Josh Allen throws 10 TDs.

 

Either the defense has had an all-time bad game, or Allen and the Bills have abandoned all sportsmanship.

[transplantbillsfan]

9 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

But to be honest...I do think that against the Pats that was one of the worst days I have seen Josh in terms of accuracy and throwing the ball since his rookie year.  

 

I also am wondering if there is something wrong with his throwing shoulder because he is coming up short or late on a lot of throws this season that he normally isn't.  I know there is twitter fool saying there is a shoulder injury since the first quarter of week 1, and hard to say if its true or not, but I do have to say his arm doesn't look as strong as it has in the past when he was scrambling and throwing on the run.  He used to just flick it a mile downfield and now he just seems way short a lot.  He obviously still has plenty of velocity, but I feel like something is impacting Josh's ability to make the harder throws that few can make, and many only he can make.  

 

Well FWIW Bruce Nolan--SUPER highly respected analyst and film guru--echoed Marino's sentiments about the passing game in his podcast yesterday.

 

He put majority of the passing game struggles on IOL and the receivers. He also says it's pretty obvious that Brady's offense is setting the passing game up for success.

[Dr.Sack]

Amazing what weapons that can get consistent separation can do for a QB. Diggs ranks 44th in separation, and is a WR1? Yeesch. 

[stevestojan]

Remember who won the league MVP in 2008? Neither do I.
 

Because no one gives a *****. 
 

Win the Super Bowl. 

[BBFL]

That ship for Allen sadly sailed in the last 6 quarters of play on the field. He’d have to have a record setting performance, never mind a Heisman one, to be anywhere close to the award. 
 

Josh is the Bills MVP. Hands down but he’s stumbled a little when put side by side with his competition. 

[HalftimeAdjustment]

On 1/2/2024 at 12:58 PM, SoonerBillsFan said:

He isn't winning the NFL MVP. Its crazy talk still happens on this subject.  Too many turnovers and back to back statistically bad games for a QB trying to win MVP. 

 

Add another bad game to that.

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, HalftimeAdjustment said:

 

Add another bad game to that.

 

Wouldn't exactly call it a bad game. Allen obviously won't win even though he has 15 more TDs than the guy who eventually will.

 

Anyone watching that game should understand the context of the turnovers by Allen. The lost fumble was stupid and 100% on him. The 1st Interception was pretty clearly on Davis, who (once again) should've read a zero blitz in his route. The other Interception was on Allen but was literally meaningless and actually a benefit for the offense since the defender chose to intercept a ball on 4th down... making for negative yardage for the Dolphin offense.

 

Allen’s dumbest play tonight was the one at the end of the 1st half to Ty Johnson preventing points on the board.

 

But all good... onto the playoffs!!!