2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[BullBuchanan]

4 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Im not suggesting he is under pressure all the time.  The line has played great most of the season.  Certain games and certain situations where it's jail break though. Hell the one pass he completed to Shakir in the clutch was a 3 man jail break off the snap.

 

The dude caught the ball in stride. You can't show still frames for this. Show the actual clip. Just because the DB caught up a half yard over 5 or 6 yards distance doesn't mean Kincaid slowed down.

If he caught the ball in stride, he would have caught it facing the endzone he was running towards, not his QB in the opposite direction. Watch the actual clip in real time if you think frame by frame is misleading. If Kincaid catches the ball over his shoulder, It's a guaranteed TD. He couldn't and it wasn't. Underthrown.

Edited January 3 by BullBuchanan

[WideNine]

Just me, but I think of all these media popularity contests and accolades as distractions.

 

Look at Dak riding high as a media darling and then the Boys get stomped and show they can't play well outside their dome and the media is tripping over themselves trying to shovel dirt on his MVP grave.

 

Win as a team, lose as a team and let the accolades fall where they may.

 

 

[skibum]

Josh could throw for 1000 yards and 14 TDs against the Fins and he still would not have a case to win MVP over CMC or Lamar. 

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

If he caught the ball in stride, he would have caught it facing the endzone he was running towards, not his QB in the opposite direction. Watch the actual clip in real time if you think frame by frame is misleading. If Kincaid catches the ball over his shoulder, It's a guaranteed TD. He couldn't and it wasn't. Underthrown.

 

I dont give a crap if he turned toward the sideline, not the QB actually, and caught the ball.  He didn't slow down. In fact the DB still didnt catch him till 15 fricken yards later and still caught his shoe on a dive.  Here is the clip since you couldn't bother to post it...

 

 

Edited January 4 by Scott7975

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Gotcha, and I do agree that he is not a serious MVP candidate this year.  Too many losses where the offense didn't play well against bad teams (Jets, Pats, Denver, etc)...too many close calls against bad teams we did win but the offense struggled (Giants, Chargers, Pats, etc).  Now had Josh had stellar games against Pats and Chargers, he would probably have a punchers chance with a huge game against Miami.  

 

But we beat Dallas with Josh only attempting 15 passes (completing 7) then offensively struggled against Chargers and especially the Patriots where Josh accumulated some TD's, but the offense as a whole was not very efficient.  Pats game was one of the worst games I have seen from Josh since he was a rookie...maybe even the worst.  He was just off target all game and out of sync on a day where Lamar was putting up 5 TD's against the #2 seed in the AFC in Miami.  

 

Love Josh, and I do think he is a top 5 MVP finalist, but just not the type of season with too many down games against bad teams and turnovers for him to over take Lamar at this point.

 

I think this was the take most of us had, but apparently the passing game struggles Sunday should really go more on the OL and WRs.

 

Watch/listen to the first half of Joe Marino's All-22 analysis of the Pats game. And keep in mind that Marino has been incredibly critical of JA17 recently.

 

He attributes 4 or 5 passing play struggles to Allen and the rest to the OL (specifically the Interior OL... he said Dawkins and Brown were studs) and to the WRs.

 

One of the interesting parts was his analysis of Josh's interception. He puts the blame of that interception squarely on Sherfield's shoulders because he ran an incredibly lazy route. If Sherfield looked like he was really anticipating a pass and running that route full effort and speed, Austin never would have separated. But since it was obvious to Austin based on the way the route was run that Sherfield never was getting the ball, Austin sprinted towards the other route.

 

And before anyone puts the onus on Josh for dialing in strictly to Kincaid, Marino also points out that Kincaid was the correct read because the Safety started following Sherfield. If he didn't, Sherfield would have been the correct read.

 

Sounds like the passing game is close despite not looking like it.

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

If he caught the ball in stride, he would have caught it facing the endzone he was running towards, not his QB in the opposite direction. Watch the actual clip in real time if you think frame by frame is misleading. If Kincaid catches the ball over his shoulder, It's a guaranteed TD. He couldn't and it wasn't. Underthrown.

 

Wait... of all the plays on Sunday, you're trying to criticize the one big passing play the team had on an absolutely perfect pass from Josh????

 

Wait... let's check the tape again...

40 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

 

 

[VW82]

Josh didn't even make it as an alternate for the probowl. MVP talk has been ridiculous for a while now. His stats have overrated his overall play this season imo. Too many close games lost where he just didn't have it for long stretches. 

[JoPoy88]

@transplantbillsfan Still making excuses for Allen when he has bad games. 🤦 

 

Allen is very good. i would not trade him for any other QB right now.  He’s not the MVP this year sorry. His TD numbers and offensive production % are outstanding and push him into consideration yes, but that is absolutely not what “MVP” voters look at. It’s a glorified “QB on the best team” award. 

[CincyBillsFan]

14 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Josh didn't even make it as an alternate for the probowl. MVP talk has been ridiculous for a while now. His stats have overrated his overall play this season imo. Too many close games lost where he just didn't have it for long stretches. 

So you're blaming Allen for the D blowing three games where the Bills had the lead with less then 2 m9nutes to go? 

 

 

[VW82]

12 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

So you're blaming Allen for the D blowing three games where the Bills had the lead with less then 2 m9nutes to go? 

 

This is about whether or not Josh deserved MVP, not who didn't do their job at the end of the game.

 

We scored 16 vs. Jets, 20 vs. Jags, 18 vs. Bengals, 22 vs. Broncos...we almost lost that stupid Chargers game. We probably should've lost to the Chiefs and Giants given our lack of offensive punch.

 

The total TD thing is a little misleading too. We started out the season not wanting to subject Josh to so many plays where he might get crushed on designed runs, leading to stingers, etc., which could've jeapardized our season last game. Thankfully not. Then Damien Harris went down and it eventually became obvious we needed to change up some things. It's not like Josh scored 15 rushing TDs from 20 yards out. Mots of those were inside the 5 because Cook is small and Murray is cooked. 

 

He's still a great player and easily one of the best in the L, but this isn't what an MVP season looks like imo. If anything, I think our defense deserves more credit given all the injuries.

 

 

Edited January 4 by VW82

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

If you would have told me 5 weeks ago that Allen could win his final 5 games, taking the Bills from 6-6 and the 11 seed in the AFC standings to beating the Dolphins in prime time for the division title and the 2 seed for all to see and have the exact same stats he has now and let's say three more TD's this Sunday to put him at 45 on the season I would have thought there was no way he would not win MVP. I do guarantee we will hear MVP chatter if the Bills win the Division and Allen has 3+ TD's doing so. But it will just be chatter and Allen will get a vote or two. Obviously, the more TD's he can put up the louder the chatter. But at this point it would take a 5 or 6 TD performance to really make it a close vote. Not impossible given the Bills track record with Miami.

 

I didn't really see the Ravens beating the 49ers, and let's face it, that game was all about the Ravens defense totally dominating Purdy and the Ravens offense. Jackson didn't screw things up in that game and he was efficient but he wasn't at all the reason they won the game.  I mean Allen's game against the Eagles in a losing effort was 10x more impressive than Lamar's in the winning effort against the 49ers. 

 

The award is SOOOO much about winning it really makes me wonder where Allen would stand in the MVP talk if the Eagles kicker simply misses a 59 yard FG in the rain. That one win behind an epic performance would have really carried what could be a six game winning streak for the division title instead of a 5. Add to that, Bills beat the Broncos with 11 men on the field and it's not even a contest. Allen wins going away with a 13-4 record and a division title, even if the Ravens still finish a game better. 

[Dr.Sack]

Allen could use a younger WR 1 and a more explosive WR 2. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, JoPoy88 said:

@transplantbillsfan Still making excuses for Allen when he has bad games. 🤦 

 

Allen is very good. i would not trade him for any other QB right now.  He’s not the MVP this year sorry. His TD numbers and offensive production % are outstanding and push him into consideration yes, but that is absolutely not what “MVP” voters look at. It’s a glorified “QB on the best team” award. 

 

I agree. Winning is such a significant ingredient for a QB's MVP case. That's why I thought the Bills going from 6-6 and the 11 seed to 11-6 and the 2 seed in a year where no QB's were really standing out and everyone wanted to say "yet but" to Purdy's efficiency, would really put Allen in the conversation.

 

I'm curious how the all-pro vote goes. To me, Purdy and Dak are far more deserving of first and second team All-Pro. That is the award IMO that is strictly more about stats then wins. Typically, the QB MVP also wins first team all-pro, but it is also typical that the QB MVP is clearly just as good stat wise as any other QB in the running. That's just not the case this year with Lamar clearly behind Dak and Purdy. 

Edited January 4 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[MiracleAtRich1393]

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

Josh didn't even make it as an alternate for the probowl. MVP talk has been ridiculous for a while now. His stats have overrated his overall play this season imo. Too many close games lost where he just didn't have it for long stretches. 

Pretty sure he's first alternate along with Diggs?

 

https://www.instagram.com/p/C1qLybbrOoz/?igsh=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

 

[DapperCam]

Does anybody else find the Ravens fan argument of “if you watched games, then you would get it” as a hand wavy excuse for Jackson’s middle-of-road stats utterly unconvincing?

 

Like what exactly has he done to be more impressive than Allen or even Prescott? Once a narrative gets rolling, forget about it. That momentum is impossible to stop.

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, VW82 said:

Josh didn't even make it as an alternate for the probowl. MVP talk has been ridiculous for a while now. His stats have overrated his overall play this season imo. Too many close games lost where he just didn't have it for long stretches. 

 

Are you saying the probowl matters????

4 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

@transplantbillsfan Still making excuses for Allen when he has bad games. 🤦 

 

Allen is very good. i would not trade him for any other QB right now.  He’s not the MVP this year sorry. His TD numbers and offensive production % are outstanding and push him into consideration yes, but that is absolutely not what “MVP” voters look at. It’s a glorified “QB on the best team” award. 

 

You talk out of several sides of your mouth throughout this post...

 

sooo...

 

are you actually saying you think Allen should be the MVP??? That's what it sounds like.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

On 1/2/2024 at 8:55 PM, hondo in seattle said:

According to the Madden simulation run by ClutchPoints (see below), Allen will pass for 400 yards against the Fins in a victory.   

 

It wouldn't be enough.  The narrative all year has been that Allen is a turnover machine.  One good game won't erase that impression.

 

Madden 24 Simulates – Bills 37 – Dolphins 28

 

TEAM       Quarter 1     Quarter 2    Quarter 3    Quarter 4    FINAL

Bills          10                 17                7                   3                  37

Dolphins  0                   7                  7                   14                28

 

Josh Allen exploded with 4 TDs and 400 total yards of offense. Additionally, he turned over the ball zero times to help Buffalo dominate Miami.

 

While the Dolphins outscored Buffalo 21-10 in the second half, their attempts fell flat as Buffalo built too big of a lead early on. Down 34-14 in the fourth, the Dolphins lost their grip on the No. 2 seed. Now, they drop down to the sixth.

 

Buffalo claims the No. 2 seed, hosting Indianapolis in the Wild Card round.

 

www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/madden-24-simulates-nfl-week-18-predictions-bills-win-division/ar-AA1mmxxl

I’m curious to see turnover worthy throws…I don’t think Josh has had an INT dropped all year lol. All around the league I see supposedly great qbs hit defenders right in the numbers with footballs and they drop them it’s insane 

[JGMcD2]

10 hours ago, VW82 said:

The total TD thing is a little misleading too. We started out the season not wanting to subject Josh to so many plays where he might get crushed on designed runs, leading to stingers, etc., which could've jeapardized our season last game. Thankfully not. Then Damien Harris went down and it eventually became obvious we needed to change up some things. It's not like Josh scored 15 rushing TDs from 20 yards out. Mots of those were inside the 5 because Cook is small and Murray is cooked. 

On Josh’s 15 rushing TDs, he scores from an average of 6 yards out. It’s pretty much a 50/50 split from inside the 5 and outside the 5. This isn’t Jalen Hurts getting carried in by his teammates 11 times from the 1 yard line. 
 

As for Damien Harris being the catalyst for Josh’s “misleading” TD numbers inside the 5… no. He has 8 from inside the 5 yard line and 5 of those have come the last 3 weeks… Damien Harris last played on 10/15. 
 

The last 3 weeks have been *must win* all that says to me is with our backs against the wall we want the ball in the hands of our best player. 

Edited January 4 by JGMcD2

[Alphadawg7]

14 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I think this was the take most of us had, but apparently the passing game struggles Sunday should really go more on the OL and WRs.

 

Watch/listen to the first half of Joe Marino's All-22 analysis of the Pats game. And keep in mind that Marino has been incredibly critical of JA17 recently.

 

He attributes 4 or 5 passing play struggles to Allen and the rest to the OL (specifically the Interior OL... he said Dawkins and Brown were studs) and to the WRs.

 

One of the interesting parts was his analysis of Josh's interception. He puts the blame of that interception squarely on Sherfield's shoulders because he ran an incredibly lazy route. If Sherfield looked like he was really anticipating a pass and running that route full effort and speed, Austin never would have separated. But since it was obvious to Austin based on the way the route was run that Sherfield never was getting the ball, Austin sprinted towards the other route.

 

And before anyone puts the onus on Josh for dialing in strictly to Kincaid, Marino also points out that Kincaid was the correct read because the Safety started following Sherfield. If he didn't, Sherfield would have been the correct read.

 

Sounds like the passing game is close despite not looking like it.

Nobody who votes for the MVP is gonna watch this.  All they see is Josh 50% completions, under 200 yards and a narrow win against a bad team that also already beat us earlier this year.  They will see 4 turnovers that the offense only managed 13 points on.  
 

That’s the issue, no one is going to look into reasons outside of Allen for pass game struggles.  
 

So he has no chance to unseat Lamar, especially with Lamar sitting this week, because Allen and the offense is coming off 2 dud games against 2 bad teams where the last time they saw Lamar he and the Ravens destroyed the 2 seed in the AFC after destroying what everyone felt was the best team in the NFL with the Niners.

 

So doesn’t matter if Josh throws 10 TDs this week, he isn’t going to unseat Lamar at this point in the voters eyes.  

[BullBuchanan]

14 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Wait... of all the plays on Sunday, you're trying to criticize the one big passing play the team had on an absolutely perfect pass from Josh????

 

Wait... let's check the tape again...

Well, it was a putrid day for Josh, so criticizing his "best" play really shouldn't be off the table. It was also just one of three plays criticized, but I like how everyone has cherry picked that one play to focus on and not the two throws he completely missed.