2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[Billy Claude]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I placed a bet for Josh to win MVP before the Chiefs game.

 

I had a cash out opportunity this week. Offering still pretty good money. 
 

To me, that says Vegas still thinks he has a decent shot. 

 

That Vegas is letting you cash out is a complete shock to me.

 

Edited January 3 by Billy Claude

[SoonerBillsFan]

3 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

We have those plays every week. We had at least 3 of them against the pats and zero TDs resulted. Kincaid was wide open and if Allen hits him in stride he's gone. Instead, he has to slow down so it's just a big gainer. On a throw to the left side of the field he had a wide open Shakiir on the right and he had Diggs wide open for a score down the field and missed him completely.

Guys like Rodgers, Brady, manning, Brees would never miss those passes in their prime. You don't get many of them and it's imperative you hit them, because they change the game.

I don't know what his issue is,but yeah he missed those and has missed on many like them all year.

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, Billy Claude said:

 

That Vegas is letting you cash out is a complete shock to me.

 

It was to me too.

 

So much so that I didn't do it.

[CincyBillsFan]

4 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

We have those plays every week. We had at least 3 of them against the pats and zero TDs resulted. Kincaid was wide open and if Allen hits him in stride he's gone. Instead, he has to slow down so it's just a big gainer. On a throw to the left side of the field he had a wide open Shakiir on the right and he had Diggs wide open for a score down the field and missed him completely.

Guys like Rodgers, Brady, manning, Brees would never miss those passes in their prime. You don't get many of them and it's imperative you hit them, because they change the game.

Allen hit him perfectly in stride what the hell are you talking about?

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

According to the Madden simulation run by ClutchPoints (see below), Allen will pass for 400 yards against the Fins in a victory.   

 

It wouldn't be enough.  The narrative all year has been that Allen is a turnover machine.  One good game won't erase that impression.

 

Madden 24 Simulates – Bills 37 – Dolphins 28

 

TEAM       Quarter 1     Quarter 2    Quarter 3    Quarter 4    FINAL

Bills          10                 17                7                   3                  37

Dolphins  0                   7                  7                   14                28

 

Josh Allen exploded with 4 TDs and 400 total yards of offense. Additionally, he turned over the ball zero times to help Buffalo dominate Miami.

 

While the Dolphins outscored Buffalo 21-10 in the second half, their attempts fell flat as Buffalo built too big of a lead early on. Down 34-14 in the fourth, the Dolphins lost their grip on the No. 2 seed. Now, they drop down to the sixth.

 

Buffalo claims the No. 2 seed, hosting Indianapolis in the Wild Card round.

 

www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/madden-24-simulates-nfl-week-18-predictions-bills-win-division/ar-AA1mmxxl

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

I placed a bet for Josh to win MVP before the Chiefs game.

 

I had a cash out opportunity this week. Offering still pretty good money. 
 

To me, that says Vegas still thinks he has a decent shot. 

He won’t get the votes.  Lamar isn’t gonna play likely this week, he’s not losing ground to the point Allen over takes him after Allen has had 2 pedestrian games against lowly injured chargers and the lowly pats.  
 

There is nothing that can happen this weekend that will leap frog Allen above Lamar without Lamar playing and having a chance to have an off game.  
 

I bet on Allen for MVP too, and if you had a chance to cash out you should have taken it cuz he won’t win it this year.  
 

Im not saying that’s how I feel per se, saying what the voters are gonna do.

[Scott7975]

Just gonna throw this in here because I talked about it today and was told Allen gets the same open receivers as Lamar

 

  

 

 

Edited January 3 by Scott7975

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

He won’t get the votes.  Lamar isn’t gonna play likely this week, he’s not losing ground to the point Allen over takes him after Allen has had 2 pedestrian games against lowly injured chargers and the lowly pats.  
 

There is nothing that can happen this weekend that will leap frog Allen above Lamar without Lamar playing and having a chance to have an off game.  
 

I bet on Allen for MVP too, and if you had a chance to cash out you should have taken it cuz he won’t win it this year.  
 

Im not saying that’s how I feel per se, saying what the voters are gonna do.

I hear you. I just can't believe I got the cash out offer.

 

I'm riding it out.

[Alphadawg7]

34 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I hear you. I just can't believe I got the cash out offer.

 

I'm riding it out.

Love the commitment, but I think you should have taken the offer.  Media is still way to focused on the down games and turnovers with Allen for him to get a fair shake at it at this stage.  

[BullBuchanan]

14 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yeah, I know Josh missed some throws but those plays were nothing like this.  This wr wasn't even covered.  He had a good 15 yards of separation from any coverage.  Lamar had a crater size pocket with zero pressure.  That is nothing like what Josh had.

You don't need 15 yards of separation to make a throw like this as an elite NFL QB. A step or two is "wide open" . Anything more than that is pretty much broken.

[Scott7975]

Just now, BullBuchanan said:

You don't need 15 yards of separation to make a throw like this as an elite NFL QB. A step or two is "wide open" . Anything more than that is pretty much broken.

 

Right.... pitch and catch with no one in the area and having a crater for a pocket is the same as someone a step or two away with pressure in your face. Read the charts I posted.  It shows that Allen finds the open receiver more often than Lamar while Lamars receivers are far more open than Allens.

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Right.... pitch and catch with no one in the area and having a crater for a pocket is the same as someone a step or two away with pressure in your face. Read the charts I posted.  It shows that Allen finds the open receiver more often than Lamar while Lamars receivers are far more open than Allens.

I read the charts. They don't make the point you think they make. If Allen didn't have open receivers (as you suggested), we wouldn't be near the top of the list. Read the X-axis, the difference in "average receiver separation" is minuscule (.01-.03), while the difference in "percentage thrown to" is massive (0.55 - 0.70).

Also, you need to consider the impact of "average" to this data. You have multiple potential outcomes that the data can explain. For example:

A "strong" average could be explained by:
All contributors to the data set contributing at a level close to the average (all receivers are open all the time)
One or two contributors to the data set contributing far above average while the rest are below average (one or two receivers are open all the time)
Volatile contributions to the data set pushes the average up while the majority are close to average (broken plays like the one you showed)

It's not just as simple as saying that Lamar's receivers are outperforming Buffalo's.

15 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Right.... pitch and catch with no one in the area and having a crater for a pocket is the same as someone a step or two away with pressure in your face. Read the charts I posted.  It shows that Allen finds the open receiver more often than Lamar while Lamars receivers are far more open than Allens.

And not for nothing, the suggestion that Josh is under pressure all the time isn't true. He has one of the best performing offensive lines in the league (One spot behind the ravens).

[BullBuchanan]

14 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Allen hit him perfectly in stride what the hell are you talking about?

 

 

Clearly not. Kincaid had his man beat by several steps and he had to slow down to catch the ball allowing the DB to catch up. It wasn't a massive underthrow, but it definitely was just enough to prevent the TD.

Kincaid open by several steps

 

Kincaid has to slow down and turn his body for the ball


Kincaid makes the catch within tackle distance of the DB


I appreciate the desire to argue everything I say is wrong, but I'm not even going to entertain it here. If you can't see the difference in what happened vs what wouldve happened if the ball had an arc to to 30 yard line instead of the 33, that's on you.

16 hours ago, QLBillsFan said:

Lamar is the QB on the best team so he deserves it. I could care less about awards. Josh has been on the whole strong in the playoffs and that’s what I think we will see. Lamar has not yet played well.. we shall see. 

I have some misses over the past few weeks. But I only saw the Diggs bomb of these mentioned. He just overthrew him by a yard. Didn’t want to under throw for pick. I didn’t see Kincaid wide open and the Pats had pressure all day. The O needs to play better and he is the leader. I’m confident he will dial it in. 

see above.

[CincyBillsFan]

9 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Clearly not. Kincaid had his man beat by several steps and he had to slow down to catch the ball allowing the DB to catch up. It wasn't a massive underthrow, but it definitely was just enough to prevent the TD.

Kincaid open by several steps

 

Kincaid has to slow down and turn his body for the ball


Kincaid makes the catch within tackle distance of the DB


I appreciate the desire to argue everything I say is wrong, but I'm not even going to entertain it here. If you can't see the difference in what happened vs what wouldve happened if the ball had an arc to to 30 yard line instead of the 33, that's on you.

see above.

It is unreasonable to claim that Allen under threw Kincaid on that play.  The ball was perfectly thrown and your freeze frame pictures do not change that.  Watch the throw in real time and see just how smooth it is.

 

As an aside in picture #1 Kincaid is open at the 41 yard line (near the hash) and the clock reads 13:41.  The 2nd & 3rd pictures show Kincaid catching the ball in stride at the 34 yard line about a yard further from the hash and the clock reads 13:40.  That's about 8 yards traveled in less then a second.  Hardly slowing down.

 

 

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

It is unreasonable to claim that Allen under threw Kincaid on that play.  The ball was perfectly thrown and your freeze frame pictures do not change that.  Watch the throw in real time and see just how smooth it is.

 

As an aside in picture #1 Kincaid is open at the 41 yard line (near the hash) and the clock reads 13:41.  The 2nd & 3rd pictures show Kincaid catching the ball in stride at the 34 yard line about a yard further from the hash and the clock reads 13:40.  That's about 8 yards traveled in less then a second.  Hardly slowing down.

 

 

HE'S LITERALLY TURNED AROUND AND A YARD AND A HALF CLOSER TO THE DB.

Can't make this stuff up.

Edited January 3 by BullBuchanan

[CincyBillsFan]

Just now, BullBuchanan said:

HE'S LITERALLY TURNED AROUND AND A YARD AND A HALF CLOSER TO THE DB.

Can't make this stuff up.

Kincaid is tracking the ball while the DB, who is likely faster, is desperately chasing him to catch up. What else would you expect?  That throw was perfect and the play gained what it was supposed to.  Again watch the throw and catch in real time and there is not an appreciable slow down by Kincaid.  Had Allen thrown that pass further there would have been a good chance it would have been over thrown or Kinciad in racing to catch up to it would have gone to the turf laying out for the ball.

 

There are passes that Allen misses that warrant criticism like the deep ball to Diggs.  But throwing shade at Allen over the pass to Kincaid is an example of Allen Derangement Syndrome.

 

 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

And not for nothing, the suggestion that Josh is under pressure all the time isn't true. He has one of the best performing offensive lines in the league (One spot behind the ravens).

 

Im not suggesting he is under pressure all the time.  The line has played great most of the season.  Certain games and certain situations where it's jail break though. Hell the one pass he completed to Shakir in the clutch was a 3 man jail break off the snap.

42 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

HE'S LITERALLY TURNED AROUND AND A YARD AND A HALF CLOSER TO THE DB.

Can't make this stuff up.

 

The dude caught the ball in stride. You can't show still frames for this. Show the actual clip. Just because the DB caught up a half yard over 5 or 6 yards distance doesn't mean Kincaid slowed down.

[dma0034]

The only chance imo that Allen wnd up as MVP is with a NFL record 8 throwing TDs in one game. It would put him at 50 overall TDs and outshine Lamar's 5 TDs last week against the same team. That's pretty much the only way it could happen at this. Highly unlikely.

[Reks Ryan]

19 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

BUT...this is NOT a complete picture of Allen.  Its utterly absurd to talk about Allen's production and not include his legs.  If you do, he is at or near the top of the league in total yards and he has most total TD's in the league.  

 

Lamar is gonna win MVP and his production of his legs is being counted in that decision too.  So to not include it for Josh is absurd and like talking about McCaffrey as ONLY a RB and not taking into account his receiving production for example.  

I agree with you and I mentioned that his running is a big reason for the current win streak.    I feel like finally this year, the national media has included Allen's running more in their analysis.  I've appreciated that many analysts mention total TDs both for this season & his career, which wasn't always included in the past. 

 

BUT.. My point was that Allen is not a serious MVP candidate this year.    And his passing stats are clearly below MVP standard.   A QB is not going to be considered for MVP, unless they're very effecient like Lamar, or a league leader in passing yards & TDs.

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, Reks Ryan said:

I agree with you and I mentioned that his running is a big reason for the current win streak.    I feel like finally this year, the national media has included Allen's running more in their analysis.  I've appreciated that many analysts mention total TDs both for this season & his career, which wasn't always included in the past. 

 

BUT.. My point was that Allen is not a serious MVP candidate this year.    And his passing stats are clearly below MVP standard.   A QB is not going to be considered for MVP, unless they're very effecient like Lamar, or a league leader in passing yards & TDs.

 

Gotcha, and I do agree that he is not a serious MVP candidate this year.  Too many losses where the offense didn't play well against bad teams (Jets, Pats, Denver, etc)...too many close calls against bad teams we did win but the offense struggled (Giants, Chargers, Pats, etc).  Now had Josh had stellar games against Pats and Chargers, he would probably have a punchers chance with a huge game against Miami.  

 

But we beat Dallas with Josh only attempting 15 passes (completing 7) then offensively struggled against Chargers and especially the Patriots where Josh accumulated some TD's, but the offense as a whole was not very efficient.  Pats game was one of the worst games I have seen from Josh since he was a rookie...maybe even the worst.  He was just off target all game and out of sync on a day where Lamar was putting up 5 TD's against the #2 seed in the AFC in Miami.  

 

Love Josh, and I do think he is a top 5 MVP finalist, but just not the type of season with too many down games against bad teams and turnovers for him to over take Lamar at this point.