2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Allen has the 2nd lowest sack % in the entire NFL out of 33 qualifying QBs.

 

You guys gotta actually look at things before posting. Allen has been elite at avoiding sacks this year, and let's be honest his offensive has been improved but it is not stellar.

 

The oline isn't elite, for sure. But it has been much, much better. We haven't lost a single game this year where I would say the oline was one of the biggest contributory factors. Which given the last two years is a huge improvement.

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Allen has the 2nd lowest sack % in the entire NFL out of 33 qualifying QBs.

 

You guys gotta actually look at things before posting. Allen has been elite at avoiding sacks this year, and let's be honest his offensive has been improved but it is not stellar.

I’m also not sure how Allen’s low sack percentage means that he doesn’t make bad decisions when it comes to scrambling.

 

Are you just posting weakly associated stats and hoping we assume they support your point?

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Josh spent a quarter of the season running out of clean pockets like Kenny Pickett this year. Short term memory.

 

Lol Mahomes has built a Hall of Fame career running out of clean pockets. We're really still banging that drum? Guys like Allen and Mahomes and Jackson do not produce in conventional ways. Rolling out of clean pockets is how we sometimes score 50 yard TDs. You gotta take the good with the bad on that. If you like pocket QBs go watch Joe Burrow, he's lost two seasons to injury now. Or maybe watch Derek Carr. A nice safe conservative stay in the pocket QB.

[FireChans]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Lol Mahomes has built a Hall of Fame career running out of clean pockets. We're really still banging that drum? Guys like Allen and Mahomes and Jackson do not produce in conventional ways. Rolling out of clean pockets is how we sometimes score 50 yard TDs. You gotta take the good with the bad on that. If you like pocket QBs go watch Joe Burrow, he's lost two seasons to injury now. Or maybe watch Derek Carr. A nice safe conservative stay in the pocket QB.

Oh, NOW it’s “take the good with the bad.” 
 

I thought he didn’t make those poor decisions anymore? He had a low sack percentage! Clearly, that meant he didn’t.

 

Oh no, he still does, I guess. So take the good with the bad.

 

got it, lmao.

[Warcodered]

15 minutes ago, FireChans said:

He got tripped by the ref for the safety. Talk about “watching the games” lol.

In the endzone 20 yards back, and he basically ran directly at the ref, like who do you have in a footrace Lamar Jackson or a backpedaling referee? Then he clears the guy trips on his own feet and can't possibly get the ball back to the line of scrimmage while he's obviously in the grasp. All of which would have not been a turnover and cost 2 points if he hadn't ran all the way back into his own endzone.

[FireChans]

Just now, Warcodered said:

In the endzone 20 yards back, and he basically ran directly at the ref, like who do you have in a footrace Lamar Jackson or a backpedaling referee? Then he clears the guy trips on his own feet and can't possibly get the ball back to the line of scrimmage while he's obviously in the grasp. All of which would have not been a turnover and cost 2 points if he hadn't ran all the way back into his own endzone.

Imagine telling someone to watch the games, talking about that specific play, and not mentioning the referee AT ALL. 
 

I know, would make you kind of question the source, right?

[cisco2403]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The oline isn't elite, for sure. But it has been much, much better. We haven't lost a single game this year where I would say the oline was one of the biggest contributory factors. Which given the last two years is a huge improvement.

Allen is a huge reason for why the oline hasn’t lost us a single game. Just this past game, they allowed a complete jailbreak and Allen had to make an amazing throw to get the first down and get us in field goal range to win the game. If it wasn’t for Allen’s throw, he would have been sacked for a 10 yard loss. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, cisco2403 said:

Allen is a huge reason for why the oline hasn’t lost us a single game. Just this past game, they allowed a complete jailbreak and Allen had to make an amazing throw to get the first down and get us in field goal range to win the game. If it wasn’t for Allen’s throw, he would have been sacked for a 10 yard loss. 

 

But Allen has been there the past 2 years too. The oline isn't perfect but it is muuuuuch better. It has been a top half of the league line this year. Every metric tells you that and the eye test confirms it.

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, cisco2403 said:

Allen is a huge reason for why the oline hasn’t lost us a single game. Just this past game, they allowed a complete jailbreak and Allen had to make an amazing throw to get the first down and get us in field goal range to win the game. If it wasn’t for Allen’s throw, he would have been sacked for a 10 yard loss. 

They sent 6. Not many OL out there that can block 6 with 5 consistently.

Edited December 29, 2023 by FireChans

[HappyDays]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The oline isn't elite, for sure. But it has been much, much better. We haven't lost a single game this year where I would say the oline was one of the biggest contributory factors. Which given the last two years is a huge improvement.

 

It has definitely improved. Replacing Saffold was a default improvement. Dawkins has turned in his best season. Brown has been a little better. Torrence hasn't really been as good as people say, he has struggled quite a bit at times, but steady enough that he hasn't single handedly lost us games the way Saffold would.

 

But the main reason Allen's sack % is so low is that he can make plays like this:

 

He's also gotten a lot better this year at taking his check down or throwing the ball away when all else fails.

 

Our pressure rate this year is 19.0%. Yet Allen's sack rate is 3.8%. I believe I read somewhere that he has the best pressure to sack rate out of all QBs. And I will qualify this by saying I know Allen sometimes invites pressure by holding the ball and hunting for big plays. Still he and Mahomes are pretty clearly the best at avoiding sacks that almost any other QB would take.

[jlgarsh]

3 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

This board definitely hates on Lamar. But I agree he isn’t have a normal monster stat mvp type year. 
 

but should a guy be penalized because they dominated teams early and don’t have to stat pad against soft defenses? 
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/baltimore/news/ravens-have-been-mostly-excellent-but-close-losses-have-left-them-in-a-tight-afc-north-race-baltimore/

 

i see everyone’s side (and I really don’t care but it’s fun to argue about). Allen is the dominant numbers guy but it is a lot of losses and this offense has been inconsistent if we’re being honest. Lamar isn’t going to have the numbers. Purdy is a system qb. Hill is a dirt ball. CMC might be canceled out by Purdy. 
 

honestly, TJ Watt has a major case. That offense is horrible yet they are still in the playoff hunt. 
 

 

Gabe Davis shows up once a month. The Ravens defense is more instrumental to their success than Lamar. Mark Andrews was on fire before he got hurt. The Ravens keep spending picks on WRs who aren't panning out. Lamar is a great QB, but he's not MVP level this season compared to other QBs who've won in the past 20-30 years. 

[HappyDays]

9 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I thought he didn’t make those poor decisions anymore?

 

No, that's you making up the worst possible version of my argument because you sometimes like to play semantics games instead of engaging in the discussion.

[dma0034]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

They sent 6.

 

They had 6 on the line. Sent 5, had one drop back into coverage.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, dma0034 said:

 

They had 6 on the line. Sent 5, had one drop back into coverage.

Nah, the play is right here.

 

one guy engages the OL, but doesn’t go all out because he’s also acting as spy.

 

They rushed six.

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

It has definitely improved. Replacing Saffold was a default improvement. Dawkins has turned in his best season. Brown has been a little better. Torrence hasn't really been as good as people say, he has struggled quite a bit at times, but steady enough that he hasn't single handedly lost us games the way Saffold would.

 

But the main reason Allen's sack % is so low is that he can make plays like this:

 

He's also gotten a lot better this year at taking his check down or throwing the ball away when all else fails.

 

Our pressure rate this year is 19.0%. Yet Allen's sack rate is 3.8%. I believe I read somewhere that he has the best pressure to sack rate out of all QBs. And I will qualify this by saying I know Allen sometimes invites pressure by holding the ball and hunting for big plays. Still he and Mahomes are pretty clearly the best at avoiding sacks that almost any other QB would take.

 

[cisco2403]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

They sent 6. Not many OL out there that can block 6 with 5 consistently.

They sent 6 with 5 blocking and there were 3 guys in Allen’s face before he could see his feet. So what happened to the other 2 blockers?

[Warcodered]

11 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Imagine telling someone to watch the games, talking about that specific play, and not mentioning the referee AT ALL. 
 

I know, would make you kind of question the source, right?

Not really the ref was a part of it, but Lamar taking a dumb safety is the major highlight of it.

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But Allen has been there the past 2 years too. The oline isn't perfect but it is muuuuuch better. It has been a top half of the league line this year. Every metric tells you that and the eye test confirms it.

 

I don't know about you Gunner, but I've personally been thinking that OL play across the league has gotten to be pretty similar. I would describe most OLs as average. There's a couple great ones - Eagles and Lions - and a few awful ones - Giants, Panthers, a couple others - but most are at about the same level I would say. So while I would agree the Bills OL has improved from the ranks of awful to the ranks of good enough, I would not say it has been a true advantage for our team this year.

[Patrick Duffy]

4 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Won’t this apply to Jackson as well? Also, for both Jackson and Allen, because they are elite playmakers, they both can hurt their o lines by taking some negative plays as well. 
 

I never played oline (skill player 😎) and it bores me. But it is so important and everyone seems to think the Bills oline has taken a huge step forward this year which is awesome. 

I would assume so if it were to be calculated that way. I mean can't really apply it to one player and not the others.

 

But Idk, the poster I quoted stated escapibility wasn't taken into account, so I was just wondering if it might be something used if it was taken into account

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, BigDingus said:

 

But that's what I'm saying, you don't punt on 3rd down... so the idea of an "arm punt" makes no sense. 

 

Yes, you would prefer to run any other play & hope for a better outcome. Even a checkdown can result in missed tackles or 10+ yards... even a penalty can get you a new set of downs. Perhaps you end up just short & decide it's worth going for it (even on your side of the 50). 

 

There was that long stretch with Dorsey where the Bills ranked #1 in EPA solely because of how good they were at getting out of terrible field position. They often started drives backed up inside their own 20, but consistently made it to the opponent's side of the field. Problem was they'd immediately stall out from there & be forced to punt.

 

But an "arm punt" on 3rd down, especially from midfield or inside your opponent's territory, is a huge waste. Better to try & get close enough to go for it on 4th down, draw a penalty, or anything other than just give up posession a play earlier than normal.

the passes are not thrown straight to the DB. We’re trying to get a penalty on a deep pass.  we’re trying to give the receiver a chance to play on the ball. They just happen to to get picked.
 

 

[FireChans]

39 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The Ravens defense is ranked 2nd by DVOA. Ours is ranked 12th. Their special teams is ranked 4th. Ours is ranked 18th. It is not debatable that the other two phases of the game have heavily favored Lamar over Allen.

 

The only reason the Bills are even in a playoff spot right now is because Allen had clutch game winning drives against the Giants, Chiefs, and Chargers. He also had clutch game winning drives against the Pats, Broncos, and Eagles, but unfortunately...

 

26 minutes ago, FireChans said:

these Stans watched the Bills run the ball down the Cowboys throat and Allen barely play, and still think we’d be like 0-17 with Kirk Cousins.

This has really never been more true. Folks out here acting like the 12th ranked defense by DVOA and the 4th ranked OL by PFF is Josh Allen dragging the the 0-16 Lions to the playoffs. 
 

If you truly think the Bills are absolutely awful and their defense sucks and their weapons suck and their OL sucks and their coach sucks, and are only a competitive football by the grace of Joshua Patrick Allen, I guess I understand why it’s so fervently argued he’s the MVP.

 

I think that’s a mostly emotional argument.

Edited December 29, 2023 by FireChans