2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Ravens have drafted 3 WRs in the first round in 5 years and the weapons excuse keeps getting tossed out there for mediocre play.

 

They traded one away. Bateman was a bad pick I said that at the time, and it had been compounded by his constant injuries. Flowers is a talent - he is - but he isn't a true #1 receiver type. He is more the chess piece space move receiver.

 

I think the Ravens weapons this year are fine, certainly compared to past years, but they are not stellar and Andrews his unquestionable #1 has been out. 

 

EDIT: and I repeat I say this as someone who does not thing Lamar has any serious business being considered the MVP front runner. He has had a fine season. He is not the MVP.

Edited December 29, 2023 by GunnerBill

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Ravens have drafted 3 WRs in the first round in 5 years and the weapons excuse keeps getting tossed out there for mediocre play.

They traded one who has done nothing in Arizona. The other one, Bateman, got hurt a million times, and is a 3rd wr at best. Flowers is very good. They overpaid OBJ (who I said was washed in that disaster of thread we had) because they were so desperate to give him weapons who is meh. 
 

The Bills traded a 1st for Diggs. They spent a 1st on Kincaid. They drafted Cook in the 2nd. 
 

also, this isn’t Allen vs Lamar because I really like them both. Point is Allen’s cast isn’t as bad as it is made out to be here. 

[HappyDays]

33 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah I agree with some of your points but Mahomes would be awesome here.

 

Mahomes has a better MVP case than Lamar does. More total yards and TDs despite clearly having a worse offensive supporting cast (albeit a better defense). But again, the actual MVP award has become a joke.

[The Wiz]

3 minutes ago, zow2 said:

The most absurd reason for Lamar being MVP and not Allen that I heard this week on TV...  "Lamar would have 45 TD's by now if he called him own number by the goal line like Allen does".   Ok, so now we're going to award the MVP based on reasoning like that for things that never happened?

 

 

The hilarious part of this comment is these are the same people that were touting Hurts as the MVP for the first 10-12 weeks of the season because of the same reason.

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I would rather have the 40 TDs Allen has given us compared to the 24 TDs Lamar has had. The thing about the Bills is that Allen's TDs can't have been scored by anyone else. He's responsible for 85.1% of our TDs scored versus Lamar who's responsible for 54.5% of theirs.

 

Our weapons may be a little better on the whole, although considering Diggs has not been close to elite for the past 8 weeks or so that is not a gimme. But either way the discrepancy between 40 TDs and 24 TDs is not because of the offensive supporting cast. It's because of the QBs.

 

I find it weird that Lamar's MVP campaign has suddenly risen so high after the 49ers game. Did people actually watch that game? He started the game by running backwards for 20 yards and giving up a dumb safety. The next several drives he missed a bunch of passes including a couple on 3rd down that ended drives. If the 49ers offense had done what they usually do it would have been a blowout at halftime. Instead the Ravens defense dominated the game and gave Lamar more than enough time to settle in.

 

I get that the actual MVP award has become a complete joke driven by narratives more than facts. But I'd like to think that as fans we can be smarter than that.

It’s stupid award and I don’t really care either way. 
 

but if the situations were reversed, you be screaming for Allen to be the mvp over Lamar because he is the qb of the number 1 seed who’s team never trails.  I think the Ravens have 7 wins of double digits against winning teams this year (something like that). So they have a lot of Dallas games where Allen didn’t have to do anything.   

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Mahomes has a better MVP case than Lamar does. More total yards and TDs despite clearly having a worse offensive supporting cast (albeit a better defense). But again, the actual MVP award has become a joke.

This is the worst season of Mahomes career. That’s how high he set the bar. Plus, they have 6 losses (and counting). I agree he might have the most garbage cast of any MVP caliber qb but it is what it is. 

[mrags]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I would rather have the 40 TDs Allen has given us compared to the 24 TDs Lamar has had. The thing about the Bills is that Allen's TDs can't have been scored by anyone else. He's responsible for 85.1% of our TDs scored versus Lamar who's responsible for 54.5% of theirs.

 

Our weapons may be a little better on the whole, although considering Diggs has not been close to elite for the past 8 weeks or so that is not a gimme. But either way the discrepancy between 40 TDs and 24 TDs is not because of the offensive supporting cast. It's because of the QBs.

 

I find it weird that Lamar's MVP campaign has suddenly risen so high after the 49ers game. Did people actually watch that game? He started the game by running backwards for 20 yards and giving up a dumb safety. The next several drives he missed a bunch of passes including a couple on 3rd down that ended drives. If the 49ers offense had done what they usually do it would have been a blowout at halftime. Instead the Ravens defense dominated the game and gave Lamar more than enough time to settle in.

 

I get that the actual MVP award has become a complete joke driven by narratives more than facts. But I'd like to think that as fans we can be smarter than that.

Probably the biggest problem you ran into. 

[zow2]

I think Lamar gets more help from his defense, running game and special teams for wins.  If Allen ends the season with two really good games, and no turnovers,,,and the Bills finish 11-6 I think he should get it for sure.  If not Josh, I'd say McCaffrey or Tyreek... I just would not automatically give it to Lamar based on team record.  He has the same number of TD's as Howell, who is now benched so Sam won't be able to keep up any longer lol

[C.Biscuit97]

6 minutes ago, zow2 said:

The most absurd reason for Lamar being MVP and not Allen that I heard this week on TV...  "Lamar would have 45 TD's by now if he called him own number by the goal line like Allen does".   Ok, so now we're going to award the MVP based on reasoning like that for things that never happened?

 

 

I agree that is silly but he definitely could have half if not more of those 1 yard tds Gu’s Edwards gets.  Or extra td passes if a receiver doesn’t get tackled at the one. 
 

honestly, it’s all pretty stupid but it makes for good debate during the week. Most NFL mvps rarely win the SB the year they won the award anyways.

[Captain Hindsight]

39 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah I agree with some of your points but Mahomes would be awesome here. He’d kill to  have our receiving core. 
 

Lamar has also never played with close to a receiver like Diggs. I think him and Hurts would be good in our offense as well, though it would be way different. Agree on Tua and Purdy. I think Allen is better than Burrow but Diggs, Kincaid, and Cook are very good weapons in their own right if not as good as Cincy’s WRs (though I’d rather have Cook than the woman puncher Mixon).

He has OBJ this year! Beckham has 34 catches for 532 yards. Gabe Davis for comparison has 43 catches for 752 yards.

 

Lamar shouldn't be MVP. He is having a good year, but not an MVP season. Josh has more passing TDs than Lamar has total. Josh also has an absurd 13 rushing TDs to Lamar's 5. 

 

I'd argue that Allen, Mccaffrey, Hill, TJ Watt all have better cases than Lamar. JMO

 

 

[HappyDays]

19 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

but if the situations were reversed, you be screaming for Allen to be the mvp over Lamar because he is the qb of the number 1 seed who’s team never trails.

 

No I wouldn't. This is just something you decided to say. If Allen had 16 less TDs on the year we would be like 5-10 right now. That's the point. There is no universe where Allen scores 24 TDs and the Bills are the #1 seed. We'd all be looking ahead at the draft by now and wondering if Allen has completely lost his abilities.

 

19 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I think the Ravens have 7 wins of double digits against winning teams this year (something like that). So they have a lot of Dallas games where Allen didn’t have to do anything.   

 

So to be clear, your argument is that a QB who "didn't have to do anything" in a lot of his games is the MVP? So if the Bills had had 13 games up to this point like the Cowboys game, Allen would deserve to be MVP simply by virtue of our team's record? You're all over the place.

 

By the way, if you're going to use PFF's rating of our OL as a testament to Allen's supporting cast, you should probably point out that they have the Ravens OL slotted one spot higher, and more importantly that their QB rankings this year have Allen #1 and Lamar #5.

 

Edited December 29, 2023 by HappyDays

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, finn said:

I don't think Allen is playing with a poor offense, but I don't think it's anything special compared to other teams in the top half of the league. Take the O-line. One of the reasons we all take PFF grades with a grain of salt is that they don't take into account all relevant factors, such as the QB's escability. What percentage of pass drops do we see Allen dodge missed blocks instead of taking a sack? It's so normal, we don't even notice anymore. Drop back, dodge a whiffed block, throw. Rinse and repeat. Put any but a small handful of other QBs back there and watch the PFF grades plummet.

 

I grant you that Cook is a real weapon, but Murray, Ty Johnson, Davis, Shakir, Knox, Sherfield, and Harty are all no more than above average. Diggs is the only "A" player besides Allen. Kincaid? A nice player with excellent potential. So, yeah, I would say Allen deserves MVP because he does more with less than any of his competitors.

 

Put it this way: Allen would do better than Mahomes if Allen played in KC, better than Lamar in Baltimore, Burrow in Cincinnati, Purdy in SF, Hurts in Philly, Prescott in Dallas, and certainly Tua in Miami. Flip it around and the opposite is true: None of these QBs would do as well as Allen has with the Buffalo roster. 

 

I agree with the point you're making here. Just to add pertaining to the bold, at times Allen had a clean pocket and still took off so don't know if that would help or hurt if were doing escapability?

[dma0034]

Does anyone know how many 1 yard TDs Allen has? 

 

 

I would say my biggest argument for Allen is how he's lost:

 

Jets game was on him but he still tied it late but failed to do anything on his one drive in OT

 

Jags game: scores late to put it at 1 possession game. Jags score on a long TD to go up two scores. Allen scores in 45 seconds. Bills can't recover the onside kick

 

Pats game: Allen gets the lead with less than 2 minutes left. Pats win

 

Bengals: Allen scores with about 5 minutes left to cut lead to 6 points. Bills Defense doesn't get stop and Bengals run out the clock

 

Broncos: Allen scores with less than 2 minutes left to take lead. Broncos score and win game on final play

 

Eagles: Allen takes lead with less than 2 minutes left. Eagles score a FG to tie. Allen brings his team down and kicks a FG. Bills defense fails to stop Eagles and they score

 

 

 

Has Allen been stopped late in the game when the game has been on the line? Only against the Jets. Bille defense has let him down in all games except Giants and Bucs (and almost let him down against the Bucs). If that's not MVP I don't know what is

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, zow2 said:

I think Lamar gets more help from his defense, running game and special teams for wins.  If Allen ends the season with two really good games, and no turnovers,,,and the Bills finish 11-6 I think he should get it for sure.  If not Josh, I'd say McCaffrey or Tyreek... I just would not automatically give it to Lamar based on team record.  He has the same number of TD's as Howell, who is now benched so Sam won't be able to keep up any longer lol

The Ravens give up 13 less yards/ game than us, 4 more sacks, and 2 less points/ game.  
 

additionally, they only have 2 more takeaways (26-24).  But the reason they are 12-3 and we are 9-6 is they are a +10 while we are even. So to the people who favor Jackson, that and the losses, are the biggest case against Allen. 

[finn]

38 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

https://mvpvoting.wordpress.com/ap-voters/
 

From 2020, nfl hates change so like expect a lot of the same people. 

Most NFL pundits just repeat conventional wisdom, which is fine for a fan board like this but pretty appalling when you're being paid for your insights. "One thing for sure: No one wants to see the Bills in the playoffs." How many times have you read that in recent weeks? Or the literally inevitable "turnover" caveat to any praise for Allen?

 

I just hope the MVP voters aren't so lazy or sheep-like. 

[C.Biscuit97]

7 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

He has OBJ this year! Beckham has 34 catches for 532 yards. Gabe Davis for comparison has 43 catches for 752 yards.

 

Lamar shouldn't be MVP. He is having a good year, but not an MVP season. Josh has more passing TDs than Lamar has total. Josh also has an absurd 13 rushing TDs to Lamar's 5. 

 

I'd argue that Allen, Mccaffrey, Hill, TJ Watt all have better cases than Lamar. JMO

 

 

Come on Captain. Read what you just posted. OBJ isn’t even as good as Davis. He’s a possession receiver who was in major decline and is coming off his 2nd major knee injury. I’d rather have better than both but in 2023, Davis is a better player than OBJ.

 

also, do more stat pad when they up double digits or when they are trailing? The Ravens never really are losing this year. They dominate games from the opening kickoff and normally cruise to victories.

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

No I wouldn't. This is just something you decided to say. If Allen had 16 less TDs on the year we would be like 5-10 right now. That's the point. There is no universe where Allen scores 24 TDs and the Bills are the #1 seed. We'd all be looking ahead at the draft by now and wondering if Allen has completely lost his abilities.

 

 

So to be clear, your argument is that a QB who "didn't have to do anything" in a lot of his games is the QB? So if the Bills had had 13 games up to this point like the Cowboys game, Allen would deserve to be MVP simply by virtue of our team's record? You're all over the place.

 

By the way, if you're going to use PFF's rating of our OL as a testament to Allen's supporting cast, you should probably point out that they have the Ravens OL slotted one spot higher, and more importantly that their QB rankings this year have Allen #1 and Lamar #5.

Well you’re not being honest. Because 99% of fans here, myself included, would be losing our minds if Allen wasn’t the MVP favorite if we were the number 1 seed.  Like Allen shouldn’t get penalized for the Dallas game because his team killed those frauds and he didn’t have to do anything,.

 

and this isn’t a gotcha you moment. Ravens have a slightly better o line and defense. We have better offensive weapons. It’s very close. I do think them being +10 in turnovers while we are 0 (with only 2 less takeaways) is significant to wins 

[finn]

5 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

I agree with the point you're making here. Just to add pertaining to the bold, at times Allen had a clean pocket and still took off so don't know if that would help or hurt if were doing escapability?

Can hardly blame him for taking off with Spencer Brown as his bodyguard. That aside, I would imagine quitting a clean pocket wouldn't count toward escapability.

 

I'd like to see if there's a correlation between QB mobility--evidenced by rushing yards, for instance--and sacks allowed. I believe Baltimore and Buffalo are #1 and 2 in sacks allowed, so there might be a connection.  

[Warcodered]

14 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

So to be clear, your argument is that a QB who "didn't have to do anything" in a lot of his games is the QB? So if the Bills had had 13 games up to this point like the Cowboys game, Allen would deserve to be MVP simply by virtue of our team's record? You're all over the place.

 

By the way, if you're going to use PFF's rating of our OL as a testament to Allen's supporting cast, you should probably point out that they have the Ravens OL slotted one spot higher, and more importantly that their QB rankings this year have Allen #1 and Lamar #5.

Yeah if we'd had 13 games like that Allen wouldn't be the MVP candidate on our team it'd be Cook or the O-line.

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, dma0034 said:

Does anyone know how many 1 yard TDs Allen has? 

 

 

I would say my biggest argument for Allen is how he's lost:

 

Jets game was on him but he still tied it late but failed to do anything on his one drive in OT

 

Jags game: scores late to put it at 1 possession game. Jags score on a long TD to go up two scores. Allen scores in 45 seconds. Bills can't recover the onside kick

 

Pats game: Allen gets the lead with less than 2 minutes left. Pats win

 

Bengals: Allen scores with about 5 minutes left to cut lead to 6 points. Bills Defense doesn't get stop and Bengals run out the clock

 

Broncos: Allen scores with less than 2 minutes left to take lead. Broncos score and win game on final play

 

Eagles: Allen takes lead with less than 2 minutes left. Eagles score a FG to tie. Allen brings his team down and kicks a FG. Bills defense fails to stop Eagles and they score

 

 

 

Has Allen been stopped late in the game when the game has been on the line? Only against the Jets. Bille defense has let him down in all games except Giants and Bucs (and almost let him down against the Bucs). If that's not MVP I don't know what is

The Jets game and Broncos game are both games Allen single-handedly put us in serious danger of losing, and imo hurt his case far more than they help him.

[C.Biscuit97]

13 minutes ago, Patrick Duffy said:

 

I agree with the point you're making here. Just to add pertaining to the bold, at times Allen had a clean pocket and still took off so don't know if that would help or hurt if were doing escapability?

Won’t this apply to Jackson as well? Also, for both Jackson and Allen, because they are elite playmakers, they both can hurt their o lines by taking some negative plays as well. 
 

I never played oline (skill player 😎) and it bores me. But it is so important and everyone seems to think the Bills oline has taken a huge step forward this year which is awesome. 

[FireChans]

33 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I would rather have the 40 TDs Allen has given us compared to the 24 TDs Lamar has had. The thing about the Bills is that Allen's TDs can't have been scored by anyone else. He's responsible for 85.1% of our TDs scored versus Lamar who's responsible for 54.5% of theirs.

 

Our weapons may be a little better on the whole, although considering Diggs has not been close to elite for the past 8 weeks or so that is not a gimme. But either way the discrepancy between 40 TDs and 24 TDs is not because of the offensive supporting cast. It's because of the QBs.

 

I find it weird that Lamar's MVP campaign has suddenly risen so high after the 49ers game. Did people actually watch that game? He started the game by running backwards for 20 yards and giving up a dumb safety. The next several drives he missed a bunch of passes including a couple on 3rd down that ended drives. If the 49ers offense had done what they usually do it would have been a blowout at halftime. Instead the Ravens defense dominated the game and gave Lamar more than enough time to settle in.

 

I get that the actual MVP award has become a complete joke driven by narratives more than facts. But I'd like to think that as fans we can be smarter than that.

He got tripped by the ref for the safety. Talk about “watching the games” lol.