2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, finn said:

Luck and losses, to be precise. To the extent that Allen has momentum for MVP now, it's largely due that the Bills' winning streak. Recency bias is powerful among fans and the media. That said, the opening-day loss to the Jets was almost entirely on Allen, and it's fair to hold that performance against him. 

 

As many posters have said, Allen is the slam-dunk MVP if you look at the facts objectively. He's done more with less than any other player in the league, by a wide margin. The turnover narrative is flat-out bias. Comparing Allen and Lamar, in what world do five more turnovers outweigh SIXTEEN more TDs?

See this is the part I don’t like. Putting down the rest of the offense to prop up Allen. Which would group would you rather have: Flowers, OBJ, Gus Edwards or Diggs, Davis, Cook? Honestly, I don’t think it’s close that our group is better. 
 

I get it. We want Allen to win the MVP. But it pretty disingenuous and insulting to the rest of the team to pretend like they are this poor group. 
 

and it’s PFF so it needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt but we are “ranked” 4th in o lines. https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-offensive-line-rankings-week-17-2023
 

this narrative that Allen is playing the Jauron Bills is pretty stupid (also our defense is ranked 10th in yards and 4th in points).  We have an elite, MVP caliber and a really good roster (maybe top 5) around him. 

1 hour ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

That arm punt that the jets intercepted on the 5 yard line or so was better than 99% of our leg punts lol also your receiver has no chance to catch a leg punt which is the reason why it is thrown to begin with 

I definitely think they need to do a better job quantifying certain stats. I’m 100% fine with those ints. I also think pass interference and holding draws penalties should be a stat as well.

[FireChans]

25 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Get put in a weird position when saying that Lamar shouldn't be MVP, get accused of just hating on Lamar, and it's like no he's having a good season he's doing fine this year, he's just not having an MVP season.

If Josh Allen was the one seed with 24 TD's, we'd all be screaming he is the clear choice for MVP.

[C.Biscuit97]

31 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Get put in a weird position when saying that Lamar shouldn't be MVP, get accused of just hating on Lamar, and it's like no he's having a good season he's doing fine this year, he's just not having an MVP season.

This board definitely hates on Lamar. But I agree he isn’t have a normal monster stat mvp type year. 
 

but should a guy be penalized because they dominated teams early and don’t have to stat pad against soft defenses? 
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/baltimore/news/ravens-have-been-mostly-excellent-but-close-losses-have-left-them-in-a-tight-afc-north-race-baltimore/

 

i see everyone’s side (and I really don’t care but it’s fun to argue about). Allen is the dominant numbers guy but it is a lot of losses and this offense has been inconsistent if we’re being honest. Lamar isn’t going to have the numbers. Purdy is a system qb. Hill is a dirt ball. CMC might be canceled out by Purdy. 
 

honestly, TJ Watt has a major case. That offense is horrible yet they are still in the playoff hunt. 
 

 

[Warcodered]

Just now, FireChans said:

If Josh Allen was the one seed with 24 TD's, we'd all be screaming he is the clear choice for MVP.

No not really, in the current field if that number includes him not having all those picks, then at best he'd be someone I'd say could win it with two more good games to close out the season with the 1 seed with how the league treats the MVP as a QB award. I'd still feel somewhat neutral about it.

[finn]

11 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

See this is the part I don’t like. Putting down the rest of the offense to prop up Allen. Which would group would you rather have: Flowers, OBJ, Gus Edwards or Diggs, Davis, Cook? Honestly, I don’t think it’s close that our group is better. 
 

I get it. We want Allen to win the MVP. But it pretty disingenuous and insulting to the rest of the team to pretend like they are this poor group. 
 

and it’s PFF so it needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt but we are “ranked” 4th in o lines. https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-offensive-line-rankings-week-17-2023
 

this narrative that Allen is playing the Jauron Bills is pretty stupid (also our defense is ranked 10th in yards and 4th in points).  We have an elite, MVP caliber and a really good roster (maybe top 5) around him. 

I definitely think they need to do a better job quantifying certain stats. I’m 100% fine with those ints. I also think pass interference and holding draws penalties should be a stat as well.

I don't think Allen is playing with a poor offense, but I don't think it's anything special compared to other teams in the top half of the league. Take the O-line. One of the reasons we all take PFF grades with a grain of salt is that they don't take into account all relevant factors, such as the QB's escability. What percentage of pass drops do we see Allen dodge missed blocks instead of taking a sack? It's so normal, we don't even notice anymore. Drop back, dodge a whiffed block, throw. Rinse and repeat. Put any but a small handful of other QBs back there and watch the PFF grades plummet.

 

I grant you that Cook is a real weapon, but Murray, Ty Johnson, Davis, Shakir, Knox, Sherfield, and Harty are all no more than above average. Diggs is the only "A" player besides Allen. Kincaid? A nice player with excellent potential. So, yeah, I would say Allen deserves MVP because he does more with less than any of his competitors.

 

Put it this way: Allen would do better than Mahomes if Allen played in KC, better than Lamar in Baltimore, Burrow in Cincinnati, Purdy in SF, Hurts in Philly, Prescott in Dallas, and certainly Tua in Miami. Flip it around and the opposite is true: None of these QBs would do as well as Allen has with the Buffalo roster. 

[BigDingus]

11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

While I appreciate the effort, are we really trying to use a screenshot of YouTube comments as proof of public perception?

 

For that matter, if you went out and found every comment responding to an "Allen is MVP" post, do you really think they would confirm anything one way or another?

 

If you would answer "yes" to either of the previous questions, make sure you hop in and ask all those people to send you the news every day 'cause ya just don't trust it and need it from trustworthy sources who'll shoot ya straight like all those anonymous commenters on YouTube and Twitter....

 

The reason I did it is because I'm showing you what social media dialogue is like, and it's not something you even have to dig for. I could do the same on Twitter or anywhere else. 

 

You literally can't bring up Josh without a bunch of people instantly mocking the idea (unless you're on a Bills-related video/article). It's very much the narrative & perception among general fans that 1) he turns over the ball too much & 2) the Bills haven't been successful enough.

 

If the Bills can win out & Josh can somehow string together 2 games without a turnover, there might be a larger movement in his favor. But please, just search "NFL MVP" on any platform, look at any poll, and you will see exactly what I'm talking about.

[Scott7975]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

See this is the part I don’t like. Putting down the rest of the offense to prop up Allen. Which would group would you rather have: Flowers, OBJ, Gus Edwards or Diggs, Davis, Cook? Honestly, I don’t think it’s close that our group is better. 
 

I get it. We want Allen to win the MVP. But it pretty disingenuous and insulting to the rest of the team to pretend like they are this poor group. 
 

and it’s PFF so it needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt but we are “ranked” 4th in o lines. https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-offensive-line-rankings-week-17-2023
 

this narrative that Allen is playing the Jauron Bills is pretty stupid (also our defense is ranked 10th in yards and 4th in points).  We have an elite, MVP caliber and a really good roster (maybe top 5) around him. 

I definitely think they need to do a better job quantifying certain stats. I’m 100% fine with those ints. I also think pass interference and holding draws penalties should be a stat as well.

 

I think you keep trying to act like the Ravens group is garbage.  They are not.  Them guys are getting open all game long.  Every year I have to hear about how poor Lamar has nobody to throw too.  All off season I heard how they finally got him weapons and he's going to tear up the league. This year for like the first 3/4 of the year I heard how Lamar has greatly improved as a passer because of his new weapons and that's all he needed.  I heard it up to the point that people started talking about him for MVP and showing his middle of the road stats.  I said all along he hasn't and that it's the same Lamar and got flack.  Now I got to hear again how he has no weapons?  please.

Edited December 29, 2023 by Scott7975

[BigDingus]

17 hours ago, DapperCam said:

I pretty much disagree completely. Also almost all of the “arm punts” this year have given his receiver a chance and they have come up with none of them. One the DB yanked the ball right out of Diggs’ hands.

 

I see WR on other teams make athletic catches down the field every week and ours can’t even do it once.

 

"Arm punts" aren't a real thing... unless teams start consistently punting on 3rd down. The only time it's almost acceptable is when you're out of timeouts, barely any time left on the clock, right before half time, and you're out of options.

 

Otherwise, better to try anything else that can get you a new set of downs (again, unless there's little time left & you don't have timeouts). 

[C.Biscuit97]

1 hour ago, finn said:

I don't think Allen is playing with a poor offense, but I don't think it's anything special compared to other teams in the top half of the league. Take the O-line. One of the reasons we all take PFF grades with a grain of salt is that they don't take into account all relevant factors, such as the QB's escability. What percentage of pass drops do we see Allen dodge missed blocks instead of taking a sack? It's so normal, we don't even notice anymore. Drop back, dodge a whiffed block, throw. Rinse and repeat. Put any but a small handful of other QBs back there and watch the PFF grades plummet.

 

I grant you that Cook is a real weapon, but Murray, Ty Johnson, Davis, Shakir, Knox, Sherfield, and Harty are all no more than above average. Diggs is the only "A" player besides Allen. Kincaid? A nice player with excellent potential. So, yeah, I would say Allen deserves MVP because he does more with less than any of his competitors.

 

Put it this way: Allen would do better than Mahomes if Allen played in KC, better than Lamar in Baltimore, Burrow in Cincinnati, Purdy in SF, Hurts in Philly, Prescott in Dallas, and certainly Tua in Miami. Flip it around and the opposite is true: None of these QBs would do as well as Allen has with the Buffalo roster. 

Yeah I agree with some of your points but Mahomes would be awesome here. He’d kill to  have our receiving core. 
 

Lamar has also never played with close to a receiver like Diggs. I think him and Hurts would be good in our offense as well, though it would be way different. Agree on Tua and Purdy. I think Allen is better than Burrow but Diggs, Kincaid, and Cook are very good weapons in their own right if not as good as Cincy’s WRs (though I’d rather have Cook than the woman puncher Mixon).

[Process]

Is a list of MVP voters made public? I'm curious who actually votes for this. I know Emmanuel Acho is one lol. 

[Scott7975]

1 minute ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Yeah I agree with some of your points but Mahomes would be awesome here. He’d kill to  have our receiving core. 
 

Lamar has also never played with close to a receiver like Diggs. I think him and Hurts would be good in our offense as well, though it would be way different. Agree on Tua and Purdy. I think Allen is better than Burrow but Diggs, Kincaid, and Cook are very good weapons in their own right if not as good as Cincy’s WRs (though I’d rather have Cook than the woman puncher Mixon).

 

Now Allens weapons are as good as Cinci's?  Oh hell no.  You are delusional.  Diggs has played like ass this year for one.  You give all this credit to Kincaid who is mostly a short yardage safety outlet in a few games yet Flowers for the Ravens is just a guy right?  Cook is good but he isn't yet elite.  Your bias is showing hard my guy.

[C.Biscuit97]

4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I think you keep trying to act like the Ravens group is garbage.  They are not.  Them guys are getting open all game long.  Every year I have to hear about how poor Lamar has nobody to throw too.  All off season I heard how they finally got him weapons and he's going to tear up the league. This year for like the first 3/4 of the year I heard how Lamar has greatly improved as a passer because of his new weapons and that's all he needed.  I heard it up to the point that people started talking about him for MVP and showing his middle of the road stats.  I said all along he hasn't and that it's the same Lamar and got flack.  Now I got to hear again how he has no weapons?  please.

Flowers is a stud. The rest are meh. I know we had a 150 page on his being our number 2 receiver, but he is not even a top 30 receiver at this point of his career. I’d rather have Davis than him (though hopefully we improve that spot next year). Gus Edwards was their 3rd string rb to start the year. And Lamar hasn’t had his best offensive weapon for the last 3 games. 
 

Thise WRs get open because they are terrified by Lamar running. Same thing with most mobile QBs. Lamar might be the best rushing qb ever so it puts defenses in a bind. 
 

I can post his backups stats when they played vs his. The drop off is major (losing record l, more turnovers than TDS). 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

4 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

"Arm punts" aren't a real thing... unless teams start consistently punting on 3rd down. The only time it's almost acceptable is when you're out of timeouts, barely any time left on the clock, right before half time, and you're out of options.

 

Otherwise, better to try anything else that can get you a new set of downs (again, unless there's little time left & you don't have timeouts). 

 

I don't know that an arm punt has ever been officially defined but the commonly thought of definition would be a pass on 3rd and 10+, from your side of the field that ends inside the opponents 20 yard line. Or a pass from inside your own 20 that lands in the opponents side of the field or better yet inside their 40 yard line. Those would be what I would consider harmless arm punts. And the bolded in your quote, isn't that what an arm punt is trying to do? Move the chains? 

 

Obviously, 3rd 10-12 range, more ideal to try a play around the sticks to pick up the first but if you are in 3rd and 15+ that is when a deep shot is definitely called for more often. 

 

And you can't have an arm punt on 4th down. Defenders would just knock the ball down. At least they should. 

[C.Biscuit97]

7 minutes ago, Process said:

Is a list of MVP voters made public? I'm curious who actually votes for this. I know Emmanuel Acho is one lol. 

https://mvpvoting.wordpress.com/ap-voters/
 

From 2020, nfl hates change so like expect a lot of the same people. 

[Process]

3 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

https://mvpvoting.wordpress.com/ap-voters/
 

From 2020, nfl hates change so like expect a lot of the same people. 

Awesome, thanks

[C.Biscuit97]

7 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Now Allens weapons are as good as Cinci's?  Oh hell no.  You are delusional.  Diggs has played like ass this year for one.  You give all this credit to Kincaid who is mostly a short yardage safety outlet in a few games yet Flowers for the Ravens is just a guy right?  Cook is good but he isn't yet elite.  Your bias is showing hard my guy.

I mistyped. I meant cincy’s receivers are better but I’d rather have cook than Mixon.

 

and I’m one of the few who isn’t biased here.  I point out why other guys might have a good argument and it’s like you hate Allen (who I have repeatedly said is a top 3 qb).  
 

your reading comprehension also sucks and you’re very sensitive. I said Flowers is a stud in another post. He still is a rookie. And Kincaid was a top 5 TE when Knox was out. He was a legit huge weapon for us. 
 

I love the Bills and not just Allen, who is amazing. But some posters love putting down the offense to build him up. This is a top 10 group around him. 

[BananaB]

25 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Now Allens weapons are as good as Cinci's?  Oh hell no.  You are delusional.  Diggs has played like ass this year for one.  You give all this credit to Kincaid who is mostly a short yardage safety outlet in a few games yet Flowers for the Ravens is just a guy right?  Cook is good but he isn't yet elite.  Your bias is showing hard my guy.

Ravens have drafted 3 WRs in the first round in 5 years and the weapons excuse keeps getting tossed out there for mediocre play.

Edited December 29, 2023 by BananaB

[BigDingus]

13 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

I don't know that an arm punt has ever been officially defined but the commonly thought of definition would be a pass on 3rd and 10+, from your side of the field that ends inside the opponents 20 yard line. Or a pass from inside your own 20 that lands in the opponents side of the field or better yet inside their 40 yard line. Those would be what I would consider harmless arm punts. And the bolded in your quote, isn't that what an arm punt is trying to do? Move the chains? 

 

Obviously, 3rd 10-12 range, more ideal to try a play around the sticks to pick up the first but if you are in 3rd and 15+ that is when a deep shot is definitely called for more often. 

 

And you can't have an arm punt on 4th down. Defenders would just knock the ball down. At least they should. 

 

But that's what I'm saying, you don't punt on 3rd down... so the idea of an "arm punt" makes no sense. 

 

Yes, you would prefer to run any other play & hope for a better outcome. Even a checkdown can result in missed tackles or 10+ yards... even a penalty can get you a new set of downs. Perhaps you end up just short & decide it's worth going for it (even on your side of the 50). 

 

There was that long stretch with Dorsey where the Bills ranked #1 in EPA solely because of how good they were at getting out of terrible field position. They often started drives backed up inside their own 20, but consistently made it to the opponent's side of the field. Problem was they'd immediately stall out from there & be forced to punt.

 

But an "arm punt" on 3rd down, especially from midfield or inside your opponent's territory, is a huge waste. Better to try & get close enough to go for it on 4th down, draw a penalty, or anything other than just give up posession a play earlier than normal.

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Which would group would you rather have: Flowers, OBJ, Gus Edwards or Diggs, Davis, Cook?

 

I would rather have the 40 TDs Allen has given us compared to the 24 TDs Lamar has had. The thing about the Bills is that Allen's TDs can't have been scored by anyone else. He's responsible for 85.1% of our TDs scored versus Lamar who's responsible for 54.5% of theirs.

 

Our weapons may be a little better on the whole, although considering Diggs has not been close to elite for the past 8 weeks or so that is not a gimme. But either way the discrepancy between 40 TDs and 24 TDs is not because of the offensive supporting cast. It's because of the QBs.

 

I find it weird that Lamar's MVP campaign has suddenly risen so high after the 49ers game. Did people actually watch that game? He started the game by running backwards for 20 yards and giving up a dumb safety. The next several drives he missed a bunch of passes including a couple on 3rd down that ended drives. If the 49ers offense had done what they usually do it would have been a blowout at halftime. Instead the Ravens defense dominated the game and gave Lamar more than enough time to settle in.

 

I get that the actual MVP award has become a complete joke driven by narratives more than facts. But I'd like to think that as fans we can be smarter than that.

[zow2]

The most absurd reason for Lamar being MVP and not Allen that I heard this week on TV...  "Lamar would have 45 TD's by now if he called him own number by the goal line like Allen does".   Ok, so now we're going to award the MVP based on reasoning like that for things that never happened?