2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

transplantbillsfan · December 27, 2023

16 hours ago, folz said:

Come on man. You are trying way too hard to prove your point. You can't cherry pick stats by not including touchdowns and rushing yards. No one judges QBs on passing yards and INTs only, ignoring all other stats. Did the people who vote for the MVP ignore Lamar Jackson's rushing yards and rushing TDs the year he won the MVP? It's not about what YOU think your QB should be...it's about how the voters view the total stats/impact of the players. There is no way Lamar wins that award if it was based on passing yards alone. He was 22nd in passing yards in 2019, his MVP season (with 3,127 passing yards---Josh has 3,778 passing yards with two games to go this season---for comparison).

Plus, points win games, not yards. There are plenty of NFL games where the team with the most yards actually loses the game. And yes, I noted pretty clearly that Brock and CMC were still one game behind the rest of the players in my original post (I did use updated stats for Tua and Dak---they had played the same number of games as Josh). But, now that San Fran has played and week 16 is in the books, I have updated my list to be fully current (and included Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Jared Goff for further comparison---I only added Goff because he is one of the players with more passing yards than Josh, not because I think he is an MVP candidate).

Player    Total Yards (Pass/Rush/Rec)   Total TDs (Pass/Rush/Rec) INTs (for QBs)

Pat 4,325 26 14

Tua 4,267    26 10

Josh 4,191   40 15

Brock 4,190 31 11

Lamar 4,143 24 7

Dak 4,129 32 7

Jared 4,005 29 10

CMC 1,932 21

Tyreek 1,656 12

Mostert 1,187 21

vs. Mahomes: Would you trade 134 yards and one less interception across the season for the extra 14 TDs that Josh has?

vs. Tua: Are 14 touchdowns more for Josh not better than Tua's extra 76 yards and 5 less INTs?

None of the other QBs have more total yards than Josh. And no QB, including Mahomes and Tua has more TDs.

You told another poster to do the math, well, I ask you to do the same.

So, Josh has the third most total yards in the league and BY FAR the most TDs in the league. And after today, his # of INTs in comparison doesn't look quite as bad. Lamar obviously doesn't throw the ball as much as the other QBs, which accounts for his low INT number, and Dak seems to be an outlier (having a good season where INTs are concerned). The rest aren't that far from Josh's number of INTs to outweigh the number of TDs that Josh has. And we all know that there is also an element of luck when it comes to INTs.

Again, I'm not saying that Josh should be the MVP, but it is ridiculous for you to say that Josh isn't even worthy of being in the conversation.

Lamar's 2019 MVP season

4,333 total yards; 43 total TDs; 6 INTs

Josh needs 142 total yards and 3 TDs over the last two games to equal Lamar's MVP season. Yes. he has 9 more INTs than Lamar did that season, but if you take Josh's 2023 game averages (279.4 yards and 2.66 TDs) for the next two games, Josh would have 417 total yards and 2-3 TDs more than Lamar did in his MVP season...just sayin'.

You left out lost fumbles. He's only lost 3 this season. I really think we should be talking more about how Allen has cleaned up his fumbling problem. One of his credited lost fumbles was that weird end of game play against the Pats I think.

Meanwhile, Lamar has lost 6 and Tua, Mahomes and Hurts all have 5.

transplantbillsfan · December 27, 2023

6 hours ago, paulmm3 said:

Love Josh but he single handedly lost us too many winnable games earlier in the season to be worthy of MVP. Not his best year.

What games?

Sammy Watkins' Rib · December 27, 2023

The case against Lamar for MVP:

Through 15 games Lamar has a 63.0 QBR and 24 Total TD's. He's on pace for 28 total TD's on the year in a 17 game season.

At least when Cam won with a 61 QBR in the 2015 season the Panthers were a ridiculous 15-1 and Cam had 45 total TD's in 16 games.

The Total QBR of the last 10 MVP winners and their total TD's below. Bold type indicates they led the league in that category for that year.

2013- Peyton Manning 79.0 (56 Total TD's)
2014- Aaron Rodgers 77.8 (40 Total TD's)
2015 - Cam Newton 61.4 (45 Total TD's)
2016 - Matt Ryan 79.6 (38 Total TD's)
2017 - Tom Brady 70.6 (32 Total TD's)
2018 - Patrick Mahomes 80.3 (52 Total TD's)
2019 - Lamar Jackson 83.0 (43 Total TD's)
2020 - Aaron Rodgers 79.8 (51 Total TD's)
2021 - Aaron Rodgers 69.1 (40 Total TD's)
2022 - Patrick Mahomes 79.0 (45 Total TD's)

Josh Allen's QBR and Total TD's last 4 seasons:

2020- 76.6 (46 Total TD's)

2021- 60.7 (42 Total TD's)

2022- 73.4 (42 Total TD's in one less game)

2023- 71.6 (40 Total TD's and counting) Allen's QBR is second to Purdy's 71.7, yes only 0.1 behind Purdy.

The Ravens have been the top team in the AFC for a number of weeks now. But it's only now that Lamar has emerged as the MVP favorite. Why is that? Why wasn't he number 1 or even number 2 several weeks ago if he had the Ravens in the 1 seed position? The reason obviously is that his numbers are really bad by MVP standards. Prior to the last two games his QBR was 59 so he has "heated up" a little bit to a luke-warm 63. But more importantly, he hasn't absolutely wet the bed like Dak and Purdy have in consecutive weeks. He didn't suffer an ankle injury like Hill did forcing him to miss a game and possibly a 2,000 yard season. So it's not that Lamar himself is playing at a high level and "earning it". It's that everyone else around him is falling on their faces late in the season. But all those players; Dak, Purdy and Hill still have great stats on the season. And their teams are still in great playoff positioning.

Then there is Allen who actually has a legit chance to end the season as both the QBR leader and total TD leader. The last five MVP's have led the league in both categories. Not sure if there has ever been a QB to lead in both and not win the MVP.

Allen should absolutely win the MVP if the Bills win the division and given all of the above, not sure it should be a difficult decision at that point either.

DapperCam · December 27, 2023

I think there are basically 3 scenarios:

Bills win the division and get the #2 seed. Allen will get MVP.
Dolphins win the last 2 games, and win the division and #1 seed. Tua will get MVP.
All other scenarios, Allen deserves it based on stats but is a wild card. CMC doesn't quite have the stats for a skill player. Purdy can't shake the system QB label. Lamar wins by default and is the weakest winner since that kicker won in the 80s.

transplantbillsfan · December 27, 2023

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

The case against Lamar for MVP:

Through 15 games Lamar has a 63.0 QBR and 24 Total TD's. He's on pace for 28 total TD's on the year in a 17 game season.

At least when Cam won with a 61 QBR in the 2015 season the Panthers were a ridiculous 15-1 and Cam had 45 total TD's in 16 games.

The Total QBR of the last 10 MVP winners and their total TD's below. Bold type indicates they led the league in that category for that year.

2013- Peyton Manning 79.0 (56 Total TD's)
2014- Aaron Rodgers 77.8 (40 Total TD's)
2015 - Cam Newton 61.4 (45 Total TD's)
2016 - Matt Ryan 79.6 (38 Total TD's)
2017 - Tom Brady 70.6 (32 Total TD's)
2018 - Patrick Mahomes 80.3 (52 Total TD's)
2019 - Lamar Jackson 83.0 (43 Total TD's)
2020 - Aaron Rodgers 79.8 (51 Total TD's)
2021 - Aaron Rodgers 69.1 (40 Total TD's)
2022 - Patrick Mahomes 79.0 (45 Total TD's)

Josh Allen's QBR and Total TD's last 4 seasons:

2020- 76.6 (46 Total TD's)

2021- 60.7 (42 Total TD's)

2022- 73.4 (42 Total TD's in one less game)

2023- 71.6 (40 Total TD's and counting) Allen's QBR is second to Purdy's 71.7, yes only 0.1 behind Purdy.

The Ravens have been the top team in the AFC for a number of weeks now. But it's only now that Lamar has emerged as the MVP favorite. Why is that? Why wasn't he number 1 or even number 2 several weeks ago if he had the Ravens in the 1 seed position? The reason obviously is that his numbers are really bad by MVP standards. Prior to the last two games his QBR was 59 so he has "heated up" a little bit to a luke-warm 63. But more importantly, he hasn't absolutely wet the bed like Dak and Purdy have in consecutive weeks. He didn't suffer an ankle injury like Hill did forcing him to miss a game and possibly a 2,000 yard season. So it's not that Lamar himself is playing at a high level and "earning it". It's that everyone else around him is falling on their faces late in the season. But all those players; Dak, Purdy and Hill still have great stats on the season. And their teams are still in great playoff positioning.

Then there is Allen who actually has a legit chance to end the season as both the QBR leader and total TD leader. The last five MVP's have led the league in both categories. Not sure if there has ever been a QB to lead in both and not win the MVP.

Allen should absolutely win the MVP if the Bills win the division and given all of the above, not sure it should be a difficult decision at that point either.

But I guess it makes sense to fight against logic????

Ray Stonada · December 27, 2023

From NFL.com:

"The Ravens’ sixth-year quarterback is playing the way he did when he won the 2019 MVP award. That season, Jackson passed for 3,127 yards, rushed for 1,206 yards and totaled 43 touchdowns. This year, he has 3,357 passing yards, 787 rushing yards and 24 touchdowns. On Monday night, he led Baltimore to points on seven straight drives while leading the team in passing and rushing. He’s not only the MVP of the top team in these power rankings, but he may have captured the league award Monday night."

SMH... in what world is mediocre passing yards, 2/3 the rushing yards and just over HALF the touchdowns the same season as 2019??

Sometimes media groupthink is truly confusing.

Allen's stats dwarf Lamar's.

transplantbillsfan · December 27, 2023

5 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said:

From NFL.com:

"The Ravens’ sixth-year quarterback is playing the way he did when he won the 2019 MVP award. That season, Jackson passed for 3,127 yards, rushed for 1,206 yards and totaled 43 touchdowns. This year, he has 3,357 passing yards, 787 rushing yards and 24 touchdowns. On Monday night, he led Baltimore to points on seven straight drives while leading the team in passing and rushing. He’s not only the MVP of the top team in these power rankings, but he may have captured the league award Monday night."

SMH... in what world is mediocre passing yards, 2/3 the rushing yards and just over HALF the touchdowns the same season as 2019??

Sometimes media groupthink is truly confusing.

Allen's stats dwarf Lamar's.

Not only all of this, but with 2 games still to go Lamar already has 1 more interception and 4 more lost fumbles than 2019.

Did you read that?

Lamar Jackson has 24 TDs and 13 turnovers.

I call total bull#### he wins it this year unless he goes ballistic the next 2 weeks.

Big Blitz · December 27, 2023

2 hours ago, DapperCam said:

I think there are basically 3 scenarios:

Bills win the division and get the #2 seed. Allen will get MVP.

Dolphins win the last 2 games, and win the division and #1 seed. Tua will get MVP.

All other scenarios, Allen deserves it based on stats but is a wild card. CMC doesn't quite have the stats for a skill player. Purdy can't shake the system QB label. Lamar wins by default and is the weakest winner since that kicker won in the 80s.

Purdy is essentially Tua.

Ray Stonada · December 27, 2023

JOSH: 3778 passing yards, 27 pass TD, 15 INT, 413 rushing yards, 13 TD

TUA: 4214 passing yards, 26 pass TD, 10 INT, 53 rushing yards, 0 TD

LAMAR: 3357 passing yards, 19 pass TD, 7 INT, 786 rushing yards, 5 TD rush

TOTAL TOUCHDOWNS:

JOSH 40, TUA 26, LAMAR 24

TURNOVERS:

JOSH 18, TUA 15, LAMAR 13

Ray Stonada · December 27, 2023

Here's what NFL.com says about Josh: "Sure, he leads the NFL in turnovers (18), but with plus-1,000 odds at BetMGM, Allen might be the most sensible bet in the field for league MVP. On Saturday, Allen became the first player in NFL history to post four straight seasons of 40-plus touchdowns. He had two rushing scores and one passing touchdown. If he leads Buffalo to the playoffs, no one wants to play this team."

But, the thing is he doesn't actually lead the NFL in turnovers. Lawrence and Howell both have 19. Even the NFL's own website is falling for the Josh turnover narrative. COME ON!

dma0034 · December 27, 2023

It's tough. I think Tyreek Hill is the most important player to his Offense ( while CMC is great all the 49ers have had goos numbers... just hurt a lot).

QB though is the most important player. Like how I think it should be judged is if you take the 15th best player at that position. How well do you think those teams do? Not exactly the best way of doing it but in Fantasy the 15th best QB is Derek Carr. WR is Pittman. RB is Barkley (or Pollard). Obviously the biggest impact would be Allen to Carr but Hill to Pittman is also a drop and I think Pittman is great. I just don't think the Bills win 7 games this year unless Allen or Mahomes is the QB.

GunnerBill · December 27, 2023

4 minutes ago, dma0034 said:

It's tough. I think Tyreek Hill is the most important player to his Offense ( while CMC is great all the 49ers have had goos numbers... just hurt a lot).

QB though is the most important player. Like how I think it should be judged is if you take the 15th best player at that position. How well do you think those teams do? Not exactly the best way of doing it but in Fantasy the 15th best QB is Derek Carr. WR is Pittman. RB is Barkley (or Pollard). Obviously the biggest impact would be Allen to Carr but Hill to Pittman is also a drop and I think Pittman is great. I just don't think the Bills win 7 games this year unless Allen or Mahomes is the QB.

I think a drop from Hill to Pittman means multiple wins for the Dolphins. They are like a 7 maybe 8 win team in that scenario. It isn't just the plays Hill makes. It is what he does to everyone else on the field. In a year where there hasn't been a standout QB and where the league has been more weapon focussed there is no more impactful skill position player in the NFL than Hill. So he is my MVP vote.

Airseven · December 27, 2023

Shouldn’t have to force QB as MVP. Perhaps a good year for another position to take it.

C.Biscuit97 · December 27, 2023

3 hours ago, dma0034 said:

It's tough. I think Tyreek Hill is the most important player to his Offense ( while CMC is great all the 49ers have had goos numbers... just hurt a lot).

QB though is the most important player. Like how I think it should be judged is if you take the 15th best player at that position. How well do you think those teams do? Not exactly the best way of doing it but in Fantasy the 15th best QB is Derek Carr. WR is Pittman. RB is Barkley (or Pollard). Obviously the biggest impact would be Allen to Carr but Hill to Pittman is also a drop and I think Pittman is great. I just don't think the Bills win 7 games this year unless Allen or Mahomes is the QB.

I like this point but I think we definitely win 7/8 with Care because that’s who he is. Hes the definition of average and we have a good supporting cast around Allen, even if the number 2 spot could be upgraded.

but we aren’t SB contenders with him.

ToGoGo · December 27, 2023

11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

What games?

Those kinds of biases based off the Jets game is why Allen has an uphill battle.

boyst · December 27, 2023

no QB has been dominant enough that i would enjoy giving them an MVP. i had been on the fence all year for any QB... but right now i'd as soon go with Hill or Trent Williams as anyone else... but CMC maybe my pick.

Punch · December 27, 2023

As good of a season McCaffrey has had, he's going to fall well short of the benchmarks* typically achieved by RBs that have won MVP. Having said that, the league has evolved into an era of RB specialization yet he's mostly operating like the all-purpose bellcows of the past.

He's definitely not the most "valuable" player on his own team (as evidenced by Purdy's implosion against Baltimore) but he may be having the best season relative to position. If the award truly were given to most spectacular player (its not), it should come down to McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill and Myles Garrett.

(*McCaffrey is tied in total TDs with Mostert at 21. RB MVPs in the recent past flirt with 30)

Edited December 27, 2023 by Punch

Chandler#81 · December 27, 2023

Good case for Josh but I’d be shocked if he wins. Too much negative press from lazy sportscasters, imo.

Nineforty · December 27, 2023

Maybe a silly thing to do, but when I remove all numbers from the equation (i know they are integral to the debate), take two giant steps back and think about the season to-date, I don't think Josh Allen has had an MVP season.

To me it's a year in that someone like CMC or Tyreek Hill should win it. Their teams look very differently when they are not on the field.

FireChans · December 27, 2023

9 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

The case against Lamar for MVP:

Through 15 games Lamar has a 63.0 QBR and 24 Total TD's. He's on pace for 28 total TD's on the year in a 17 game season.

At least when Cam won with a 61 QBR in the 2015 season the Panthers were a ridiculous 15-1 and Cam had 45 total TD's in 16 games.

The Total QBR of the last 10 MVP winners and their total TD's below. Bold type indicates they led the league in that category for that year.

2013- Peyton Manning 79.0 (56 Total TD's)
2014- Aaron Rodgers 77.8 (40 Total TD's)
2015 - Cam Newton 61.4 (45 Total TD's)
2016 - Matt Ryan 79.6 (38 Total TD's)
2017 - Tom Brady 70.6 (32 Total TD's)
2018 - Patrick Mahomes 80.3 (52 Total TD's)
2019 - Lamar Jackson 83.0 (43 Total TD's)
2020 - Aaron Rodgers 79.8 (51 Total TD's)
2021 - Aaron Rodgers 69.1 (40 Total TD's)
2022 - Patrick Mahomes 79.0 (45 Total TD's)

Josh Allen's QBR and Total TD's last 4 seasons:

2020- 76.6 (46 Total TD's)

2021- 60.7 (42 Total TD's)

2022- 73.4 (42 Total TD's in one less game)

2023- 71.6 (40 Total TD's and counting) Allen's QBR is second to Purdy's 71.7, yes only 0.1 behind Purdy.

The Ravens have been the top team in the AFC for a number of weeks now. But it's only now that Lamar has emerged as the MVP favorite. Why is that? Why wasn't he number 1 or even number 2 several weeks ago if he had the Ravens in the 1 seed position? The reason obviously is that his numbers are really bad by MVP standards. Prior to the last two games his QBR was 59 so he has "heated up" a little bit to a luke-warm 63. But more importantly, he hasn't absolutely wet the bed like Dak and Purdy have in consecutive weeks. He didn't suffer an ankle injury like Hill did forcing him to miss a game and possibly a 2,000 yard season. So it's not that Lamar himself is playing at a high level and "earning it". It's that everyone else around him is falling on their faces late in the season. But all those players; Dak, Purdy and Hill still have great stats on the season. And their teams are still in great playoff positioning.

Then there is Allen who actually has a legit chance to end the season as both the QBR leader and total TD leader. The last five MVP's have led the league in both categories. Not sure if there has ever been a QB to lead in both and not win the MVP.

Allen should absolutely win the MVP if the Bills win the division and given all of the above, not sure it should be a difficult decision at that point either.

I’m pretty sure Lamar was in the top 3 a few weeks ago from oddsmakers.

It was Dak, Purdy, Lamar in different orders.

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2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

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