2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[strive_for_five_guy]

11 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

I think that Josh has a legit chance at MVP but a few things will need to happen:

 

#1 Miami will have to lose their last two.

#2 Buffalo will need to win their last two and secure #2 in the AFCE

#3 Josh will have to have 2 monster games in the process.

 

If these happen, and I think there’s a decent chance, I think Josh has a chance to win MVP.

 

In this scenario of course, the biggest completion will be Lamar, CMC, or Hill.  Any of those three can also have monster games over the final two and steal MVP.  

You would also need Lamar to play pretty poorly in beating Miami next week.  Bc if Bal wins, Lamar won’t be playing much or at all in Week 18, as Bal will have wrapped up the bye.

[BullBuchanan]

2 hours ago, Punch said:

It doesn't appear to be volatile for Josh Allen, though, right? That much is clear after 4 straight 40 TD seasons.

 

I think he should at least be in consideration for the award though certainly not a lock by any means, but your posts read like you're grasping at straws and playing at contrarian.

See that's just the thing. He's not anywhere remotely in consideration. Like there's a 1% chance or less that he wins the MVP. Several players above him would have to implode and he'd have to rack up back to back 500 yard/6TD games like Big Ben did.

Allen is having his worst statistical season since 2019 and has had way too many terrible games and way too few elite games. None of these things should be a debate because they're backed up directly with numbers. He also has the best o-line and skill position groups of his career.


He's been solid most of the time and has even had a handful of games where he's been elite, but saying he's "in consideration" for MVP is completely ludicrous especially considering we aren't even currently winning the division. The guy just had a 95 yard game where he threw a 47% rate. We steamrolled, so it didn't matter, but he was awful. It's a complete non-starter without a division championship and even - you're going to argue that Josh Allen is having a better season than Tyreek Hill? CMC? Stop it.

There are probably 4 players that would have to literally die before JA should be "in consideration". Will he get 1 vote? sure why not. He's not getting more than 3 out of 50. I don't call that a serious shot.
 

[Draconator]

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

See that's just the thing. He's not anywhere remotely in consideration. Like there's a 1% chance or less that he wins the MVP. Several players above him would have to implode and he'd have to rack up back to back 500 yard/6TD games like Big Ben did.

Allen is having his worst statistical season since 2019 and has had way too many terrible games and way too few elite games. None of these things should be a debate because they're backed up directly with numbers. He also has the best o-line and skill position groups of his career.


He's been solid most of the time and has even had a handful of games where he's been elite, but saying he's "in consideration" for MVP is completely ludicrous especially considering we aren't even currently winning the division. The guy just had a 95 yard game where he threw a 47% rate. We steamrolled, so it didn't matter, but he was awful. It's a complete non-starter without a division championship and even - you're going to argue that Josh Allen is having a better season than Tyreek Hill? CMC? Stop it.

There are probably 4 players that would have to literally die before JA should be "in consideration". Will he get 1 vote? sure why not. He's not getting more than 3 out of 50. I don't call that a serious shot.
 

 

Your overall body of work is horrible. I'll break it down for you so you understand. Your posts have a lot to be desired. Fin Haven might be more of a home for you. Time for you to leave. 

[Punch]

5 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

See that's just the thing. He's not anywhere remotely in consideration. Like there's a 1% chance or less that he wins the MVP. Several players above him would have to implode and he'd have to rack up back to back 500 yard/6TD games like Big Ben did.

Allen is having his worst statistical season since 2019 and has had way too many terrible games and way too few elite games. None of these things should be a debate because they're backed up directly with numbers. He also has the best o-line and skill position groups of his career.


He's been solid most of the time and has even had a handful of games where he's been elite, but saying he's "in consideration" for MVP is completely ludicrous especially considering we aren't even currently winning the division. The guy just had a 95 yard game where he threw a 47% rate. We steamrolled, so it didn't matter, but he was awful. It's a complete non-starter without a division championship and even - you're going to argue that Josh Allen is having a better season than Tyreek Hill? CMC? Stop it.

There are probably 4 players that would have to literally die before JA should be "in consideration". Will he get 1 vote? sure why not. He's not getting more than 3 out of 50. I don't call that a serious shot.
 

"Completely ludicrous"? You're trying way too hard and are completely beyond the pale. Good luck, bud.

[DapperCam]

7 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

See that's just the thing. He's not anywhere remotely in consideration. Like there's a 1% chance or less that he wins the MVP. Several players above him would have to implode and he'd have to rack up back to back 500 yard/6TD games like Big Ben did.

Allen is having his worst statistical season since 2019 and has had way too many terrible games and way too few elite games. None of these things should be a debate because they're backed up directly with numbers. He also has the best o-line and skill position groups of his career.


He's been solid most of the time and has even had a handful of games where he's been elite, but saying he's "in consideration" for MVP is completely ludicrous especially considering we aren't even currently winning the division. The guy just had a 95 yard game where he threw a 47% rate. We steamrolled, so it didn't matter, but he was awful. It's a complete non-starter without a division championship and even - you're going to argue that Josh Allen is having a better season than Tyreek Hill? CMC? Stop it.

There are probably 4 players that would have to literally die before JA should be "in consideration". Will he get 1 vote? sure why not. He's not getting more than 3 out of 50. I don't call that a serious shot.
 

Hill and CMC are having similar seasons to other skill players that didn’t win MVP. Like Kupp for a recent example. Neither is close to an AP or Tomlinson type season.

 

Lamar Jackson has 16 less TDs than Allen and a worse TD/turnover ratio. His counting stats are middle of the road. I’m having a hard time remembering a weaker MVP if he wins. The fact that he has the best odds just shows how much this is a QB award now.

 

If Allen finishes 2-0 with good games (maybe just one more turnover and 6-8 TDs), and the Bills win the division and #2 seed he will win it.
 

In my opinion even if the Bills win out and get the wild card he should still get it, but that isn’t how it works I guess.

[BullBuchanan]

3 hours ago, Orlando Tim said:

At this point I am blaming you for responding any further, if the ability to score points is not the largest indicator of a good QB then what intelligent discussion can happen? 

It absolutely isn't by itself. It's a byproduct of offensive production and scheme as a whole. If you have lots of TDs it means you probably had a lot of scoring opportunities. In the case of a QB that's often a direct result of their play and will be backed up by their other passing stats. In Allen's case he's leading the league at total TDs but isn't higher than 3rd at anything else while being considerably lower at several things, including dead last in INTs.

It's not like there are QBs that are dominant in all phases of the game but suck at scoring TDs or QBs that are atrocious but rack up piles of them. Scoring a TD is not an independent skill. It's entirely based on everything else you do.

He's got 13 of our 20 rushing touchdowns. He's lead our team in rushing TDs ever year but one. James Cook has 2 TD, Latavius Murray 4. That says as much about the scheme and our lack of a running back room as it does anything else.

14 minutes ago, Draconator said:

 

Your overall body of work is horrible. I'll break it down for you so you understand. Your posts have a lot to be desired. Fin Haven might be more of a home for you. Time for you to leave. 

Another well thought out critique backed up with irrefutable logic.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, BullBuchanan said:

It absolutely isn't by itself. It's a byproduct of offensive production and scheme as a whole. If you have lots of TDs it means you probably had a lot of scoring opportunities. In the case of a QB that's often a direct result of their play and will be backed up by their other passing stats. In Allen's case he's leading the league at total TDs but isn't higher than 3rd at anything else while being considerably lower at several things, including dead last in INTs.

It's not like there are QBs that are dominant in all phases of the game but suck at scoring TDs or QBs that are atrocious but rack up piles of them. Scoring a TD is not an independent skill. It's entirely based on everything else you do.

He's got 13 of our 20 rushing touchdowns. He's lead our team in rushing TDs ever year but one. James Cook has 2 TD, Latavius Murray 4. That says as much about the scheme and our lack of a running back room as it does anything else.

Factually incorrect

 

Third or second after tonight in total win% added

 

Second or first in success rate

 

First in value over average

 

Third in totalEPA

 

he has had a very strong season, likely his best

[Draconator]

3 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Another well thought out critique backed up with irrefutable logic.

Good to see that you know yourself so well

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

16 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Allen is having his worst statistical season since 2019 and has had way too many terrible games and way too few elite games. None of these things should be a debate because they're backed up directly with numbers. He also has the best o-line and skill position groups of his career.

 

He is having a better year than he had in 2021. His QBR is 71 on the season. 

 

QBR is a pretty big deal historically when it comes to MVP’s. It is why Purdy was the favorite going into this game ahead of Lamar.
 

That said, Lamar just might win it this year with the worst QBR we have seen since Cam’s 15-1 and 45 TD season.

 

Big difference is Lamar has nowhere near 45 TD’s, he might not even end up with 30 on the year. And the Ravens have 3  losses compare to just 1 loss on the year for that 2015 Panthers team. 

[BRH]

4 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

It absolutely isn't by itself. It's a byproduct of offensive production and scheme as a whole. If you have lots of TDs it means you probably had a lot of scoring opportunities. In the case of a QB that's often a direct result of their play and will be backed up by their other passing stats. In Allen's case he's leading the league at total TDs but isn't higher than 3rd at anything else while being considerably lower at several things, including dead last in INTs.

It's not like there are QBs that are dominant in all phases of the game but suck at scoring TDs or QBs that are atrocious but rack up piles of them. Scoring a TD is not an independent skill. It's entirely based on everything else you do.

He's got 13 of our 20 rushing touchdowns. He's lead our team in rushing TDs ever year but one. James Cook has 2 TD, Latavius Murray 4. That says as much about the scheme and our lack of a running back room as it does anything else.

 

If we really “lack a running back room” — sort of silly to say that given what Cook has done — wouldn’t that simply be more evidence of Josh’s value?  

[Buffalo716]

Josh Allen is the MVP of the NFL

 

He weather's the storm and is more consistent than everybody

 

And he has the stats

[BullBuchanan]

Just now, BRH said:

 

If we really “lack a running back room” — sort of silly to say that given what Cook has done — wouldn’t that simply be more evidence of Josh’s value?  

In historical context we lacked a running back room, but we've stuck with the same philosophy where we rely on Allen to punch it in instead of RBs. There aren't a lot of teams int he NFL where a healthy #1 RB has 2 TDs on the season, are there?

[JGMcD2]

19 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

In historical context we lacked a running back room, but we've stuck with the same philosophy where we rely on Allen to punch it in instead of RBs. There aren't a lot of teams int he NFL where a healthy #1 RB has 2 TDs on the season, are there?

It’s not Jalen Hurts scoring from about 2 yards out on average. Josh is scoring from about 7 yards out on average.
 

He’s not “punching it in” on QB sneaks like Brady or the Hurts tush push. He’s a legitimate threat to score from anywhere inside the 20. 
 

Fine, penalize him for using his legs. We’ll just ignore the shovel passes from Mahomes, Tua and Purdy inside the 5 too. 
 

Edited December 26, 2023 by JGMcD2

[Draconator]

 

[transplantbillsfan]

On 12/24/2023 at 8:16 PM, BullBuchanan said:

Here's another guy that doesn't understand the difference between betting odds and likely outcomes.

 

Oh really?

 

You said... and I quote:

 

"Allen still isn't anywhere near top 5 for MVP"

 

Now, please wiggle your way out of this trying to explain that you weren't 100% wrong.

 

Or just man up and admit you were wrong.

 

By the way, how did Brock Purdy do for his MVP case tonight?

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

See that's just the thing. He's not anywhere remotely in consideration. Like there's a 1% chance or less that he wins the MVP. Several players above him would have to implode and he'd have to rack up back to back 500 yard/6TD games like Big Ben did.

Allen is having his worst statistical season since 2019 and has had way too many terrible games and way too few elite games. None of these things should be a debate because they're backed up directly with numbers. He also has the best o-line and skill position groups of his career.


He's been solid most of the time and has even had a handful of games where he's been elite, but saying he's "in consideration" for MVP is completely ludicrous especially considering we aren't even currently winning the division. The guy just had a 95 yard game where he threw a 47% rate. We steamrolled, so it didn't matter, but he was awful. It's a complete non-starter without a division championship and even - you're going to argue that Josh Allen is having a better season than Tyreek Hill? CMC? Stop it.

There are probably 4 players that would have to literally die before JA should be "in consideration". Will he get 1 vote? sure why not. He's not getting more than 3 out of 50. I don't call that a serious shot.
 

 

I'm sorry, but everything you've said in this thread is just ridiculous.

 

I think you should ban yourself from this very thread after you said you don't care about total TDs for QBs.

 

Here's what I'll say about this race. I don't really care about Vegas odds because Vegas doesn't vote on the MVP.

 

MVP voters vote when the season ends. After the last game. If they do that and Buffalo has won out, I think voters will look at the 4 or 5 main candidates at that point (CMC, Tyreek, Lamar, Tua?) and dismiss Tyreek and Tua because they lost head to head against Josh and potentially Lamar. They will dismiss Lamar because he's likely going to have 20 fewer TDs than Allen (TDs equal 6 points for posters like @BullBuchanan who don't actually understand football). 

 

And then it's simply going to boil down to Allen vs CMC. And I think if Allen has 6+ TDs and 2 or fewer turnovers in the last 2 games, the voters are going to look at a QB who scored over 45 TDs leading his team to an almost improbable playoff berth based on mid-season record.

 

And Allen wins it.

[GunnerBill]

Just to update the netting off TDs minus turnovers point after last night. 

 

Just two left at the top:

Josh Allen and Dak Prescott both +22. Purdy drops to +18.

 

Not saying that metric is the be all and end all by the way. But it is something if (and all rational people think this) the biggest obstacle to Josh winning MVP is that he leads the league in turnovers.

[Doc Brown]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Just to update the netting off TDs minus turnovers point after last night. 

 

Just two left at the top:

Josh Allen and Dak Prescott both +22. Purdy drops to +18.

 

Not saying that metric is the be all and end all by the way. But it is something if (and all rational people think this) the biggest obstacle to Josh winning MVP is that he leads the league in turnovers.

I don't think it matters if Lamar puts up a similar performance against the Fins.  First seed, leads his team in rushing, and has a good game in Prime Time at the perfect time in the season against the best NFC team in their house.  Overall stats be damned.  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

I don't think it matters if Lamar puts up a similar performance against the Fins.  First seed, leads his team in rushing, and has a good game in Prime Time at the perfect time in the season against the best NFC team in their house.  Overall stats be damned.  

 

I think he is most likely winner. My point isn't really about who will win. It is more about trying to get under the skin of some of the arguments. 

 

I am a Lamar fan and long since have been. But to me an MVP Quarterback with 19 passing touchdowns after 15 games is kinda mad. But it has been a messy year. 

 

I stick with my view I'd vote for Hill if I had a vote.

[folz]

7 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

I don't really care that my QB would have made a great running back. I want him to be an elite passer. I also really don't care about TDs for a QB. It's a highly volatile stat that really isn't indicative of a skill, imo. It's more a byproduct of scheme and team skill.

 

You're using outdated info. Like I said, Josh is a full games worth of production behind the top performing QBs in the league. Josh is 6th in yards and Brock Purdy hasn't even played yet. The only thing he'll lead in is TDs, and that's not very impressive on its own unless it was a monster stat unles syou're putting up 50 passing TDs. He's 10th in passer rating before today, and 3rd in QBR.



 

 

 

Come on man. You are trying way too hard to prove your point. You can't cherry pick stats by not including touchdowns and rushing yards. No one judges QBs on passing yards and INTs only, ignoring all other stats. Did the people who vote for the MVP ignore Lamar Jackson's rushing yards and rushing TDs the year he won the MVP? It's not about what YOU think your QB should be...it's about how the voters view the total stats/impact of the players. There is no way Lamar wins that award if it was based on passing yards alone. He was 22nd in passing yards in 2019, his MVP season (with 3,127 passing yards---Josh has 3,778 passing yards with two games to go this season---for comparison). 

 

Plus, points win games, not yards. There are plenty of NFL games where the team with the most yards actually loses the game. And yes, I noted pretty clearly that Brock and CMC were still one game behind the rest of the players in my original post (I did use updated stats for Tua and Dak---they had played the same number of games as Josh). But, now that San Fran has played and week 16 is in the books, I have updated my list to be fully current (and included Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, and Jared Goff for further comparison---I only added Goff because he is one of the players with more passing yards than Josh, not because I think he is an MVP candidate).

 

 

Player     Total Yards (Pass/Rush/Rec)      Total TDs (Pass/Rush/Rec)   INTs (for QBs)

Pat                           4,325                                           26                               14

Tua                           4,267                                           26                               10

Josh                         4,191                                            40                               15

Brock                       4,190                                            31                                11

Lamar                      4,143                                            24                                7

Dak                          4,129                                            32                                7

Jared                       4,005                                           29                                10

 

 

CMC                        1,932                                            21

Tyreek                     1,656                                            12

Mostert                   1,187                                             21

 

vs. Mahomes: Would you trade 134 yards and one less interception across the season for the extra 14 TDs that Josh has?

vs. Tua: Are 14 touchdowns more for Josh not better than Tua's extra 76 yards and 5 less INTs?

None of the other QBs have more total yards than Josh. And no QB, including Mahomes and Tua has more TDs.

You told another poster to do the math, well, I ask you to do the same.

 

So, Josh has the third most total yards in the league and BY FAR the most TDs in the league. And after today, his # of INTs in comparison doesn't look quite as bad. Lamar obviously doesn't throw the ball as much as the other QBs, which accounts for his low INT number, and Dak seems to be an outlier (having a good season where INTs are concerned). The rest aren't that far from Josh's number of INTs to outweigh the number of TDs that Josh has. And we all know that there is also an element of luck when it comes to INTs.

 

Again, I'm not saying that Josh should be the MVP, but it is ridiculous for you to say that Josh isn't even worthy of being in the conversation.

 

Lamar's 2019 MVP season

4,333 total yards; 43 total TDs; 6 INTs

 

Josh needs 142 total yards and 3 TDs over the last two games to equal Lamar's MVP season. Yes. he has 9 more INTs than Lamar did that season, but if you take Josh's 2023 game averages (279.4 yards and 2.66 TDs) for the next two games, Josh would have 417 total yards and 2-3 TDs more than Lamar did in his MVP season...just sayin'.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 26, 2023 by folz