2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Josh has ALWAYS bailed out of clean pockets. Mahomes does the same thing. It's a feature of their game, not a bug. Both QBs become about 10x more dangerous when they roll right. If you haven't learned to live with that part of his game yet, you never will... Like on Davis's TD I don't know if Josh needed to leave the pocket there but I'm sure glad he did.

It's 100% a bug, we just forgive it, because even with the deficiencies in his mechanics and mental processing, he's still a top 5 QB. If he stood in the pocket, set his feet, stepped into his throws, used a full follow through, threw at the top of his drop and went through his progressions, he'd be the greatest QB that ever lived and he'd have carried his team to multiple championships.

Every deficiency in his game is between the ears and is completely fixable. He has every physical tool you could ask for when building a QB, but he refuses to put in the work to bring his mental and mechanical components to the level of his natural physical gifts. He should have shredded that defense last night.

 

1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

Right kind of like a nothing there, nothings there lets move and see if I can't scare someone into coming open.

And then you complete the plan by underthrowing a wide open WR because you have to throw across your body without your feet set.

Edited December 24, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[Warcodered]

3 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

It's 100% a bug, we just forgive it, because even with the deficiencies in his mechanics and mental processing, he's still a top 5 QB. If he stood in the pocket, set his feet, stepped into his throws, used a full follow through, threw at the top of his route and went through his progressions, he'd be the greatest QB that ever lived and he'd have carried his team to multiple championships.

Every deficiency in his game is between the ears and is completely fixable. He has every physical tool you could ask for when building a QB, but he refuses to put in the work to bring his mental and mechanical components to the level of his natural physical gifts. He should have shredded that defense last night.

 

And then you complete the plan by underthrowing a wide open WR because you have to throw across your body without your feet set.

How's your team playing today?

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

How's your team playing today?

They won yesterday, so I have the day off. Are your awful homer takes still on for today?

[Warcodered]

3 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

They won yesterday, so I have the day off. Are your awful homer takes still on for today?

Yes my homer take that you were just obviously flat out wrong and  trolling, yeah not seeing any evidence to the contrary. 

Edited December 24, 2023 by Warcodered

[mrags]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

You realize that he's played an extra game over all those players and he's still that far behind, right?

He’s not really that far behind. After this week is finished he’s still likely to be 3rd or 4th in passing yards. 4th in rushing TDs (including RBs) and still 3rd in passing TDs. Be he will still be in the league lead in overall TDs unless somehow Hurts scores 7 times this game and Purdy scores 9 times. Like I said, he leads the league in overall TDs by a wide margin. He could probably take the rest of the year off and still not be caught by Purdy or Hurts 

[BRH]

He’s also literally not played the fourth quarter of three or four games, instead of staying in there to pad his stats like Dak and Tua and Purdy and others have done.  

[Scott7975]

 

[mrags]

4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

This——-^ 

 

thank you 

 

fwiw, I don’t really care about the MVP. I want to win the whole damn thing. But it’s seriously funny how he isn’t getting much play for the MVP, especially on a Bills message board no less, considering he is leading the league total of TDs by 7 over Hurts, 9 more than Purdy, and 10 more than Dak. Yet somehow all these guys are in the MVP talk more than Josh is. All because of a few extra ints. 

[boyst]

Halftime in Houston. It is clear that Flacco is the MVP. Can we close this thread?

[Scott7975]

7 minutes ago, mrags said:

This——-^ 

 

thank you 

 

fwiw, I don’t really care about the MVP. I want to win the whole damn thing. But it’s seriously funny how he isn’t getting much play for the MVP, especially on a Bills message board no less, considering he is leading the league total of TDs by 7 over Hurts, 9 more than Purdy, and 10 more than Dak. Yet somehow all these guys are in the MVP talk more than Josh is. All because of a few extra ints. 

 

Same.  I don't care about MVP either but clearly Josh should be in the discussion.  He is one of the best players in the NFL period

 

[Roundybout]

22 minutes ago, BRH said:

He’s also literally not played the fourth quarter of three or four games, instead of staying in there to pad his stats like Dak and Tua and Purdy and others have done.  

Eh in fairness Tua has been pulled from a few games this season too. 

[KellyToTasker]

1 hour ago, BullBuchanan said:

You realize that he's played an extra game over all those players and he's still that far behind, right?

So, how many times did they take Josh out with a ton of time left in the 4th quarter when they were up by a ton? Stats aren’t necessarily a direct reflection. 

[BRH]

44 minutes ago, Roundybout said:

Eh in fairness Tua has been pulled from a few games this season too. 

 

I looked it up and you're right.  The guy who's barely come out at all?  Mahomes.

[transplantbillsfan]

13 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

Allen still isn't anywhere near top 5 for MVP and he probably went back even further after his performance today. This thread was silly when it was started but each week it goes on approaches lunacy.

https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/2023-24-nfl-mvp-odds-and-favorites

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/mvp/

[mrags]

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Same.  I don't care about MVP either but clearly Josh should be in the discussion.  He is one of the best players in the NFL period

 

Right. This 100%. If Allen isn’t in the discussion there is only 3 others allowed in the discussion. CMC. Hill. Mostert. Because Allen blows away all of the QB stats by a mile. He’s top 3 in yards, passing TDS, and number 1 by a mile in total TDs. If Allen shouldn’t be in the conversation, then Purdy, Tua, Prescott, Hurts and Jackson don’t belong in the conversation either.
 

IMO, Purdy and CMC cancel each other out. How can you have 2 guys on the same offense worthy of the title. And if we’re making that argument, Tua, Hill, and Mostert all cancel each other out. 

[ChrisWatson#21]

Josh is something special.  I’m actually considering hanging up my Bills fan jersey when he retires because there is not another better one coming to this franchise after him.  We are blessed to have him here.  

[FireChans]

Dak has got to be MVP. Was elite tonight. Left the field with the lead which is all that matters.

Edited December 25, 2023 by FireChans

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 hours ago, Heavy Kevi said:

 

For real. Love Josh, but...

 

This thread being revived every week is so weird.

 

It does not matter what happens in next 2 games, or even in the last 5 or so. He has too many turnovers and the team has too many losses.

 

It's like discussing if my pickup truck will beat the land speed record... Ain't happening no matter how much we talk about it.

If you don’t value a team winning their division down the stretch after being left for dead and being lead by a QB that leads the NFL in total TD’s then that is on you. 
 

wins over KC (Mahomes), Cowboys (Dak) and Miami (Tua) and winning the division when about 5 weeks ago everyone thought the Bills would miss the playoffs. That is quite the story for a QB who leads the league in TD’s and has the third highest QBR in the league (one of only 3 QB’s  in the league with a QBR over 70). 
 

 

6 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

They won yesterday, so I have the day off. Are your awful homer takes still on for today?

Steelers suck!  Hahahaha

[BullBuchanan]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/2023-24-nfl-mvp-odds-and-favorites

https://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/mvp/

Here's another guy that doesn't understand the difference between betting odds and likely outcomes.

[folz]

15 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

You realize that he's played an extra game over all those players and he's still that far behind, right?

 

14 hours ago, mrags said:

He’s not really that far behind. After this week is finished he’s still likely to be 3rd or 4th in passing yards. 4th in rushing TDs (including RBs) and still 3rd in passing TDs. Be he will still be in the league lead in overall TDs unless somehow Hurts scores 7 times this game and Purdy scores 9 times. Like I said, he leads the league in overall TDs by a wide margin. He could probably take the rest of the year off and still not be caught by Purdy or Hurts 

 

I'm not saying that Josh should get the MVP, but I do find it interesting that people seem to overlook his rushing yards/TDs in the comparisons to other QBs. When you evaluate Christian McCaffrey, you don't overlook his receiving yards/TDs because he is a running back.

 

Player     Total Yards (Pass/Rush/Rec)      Total TDs (Pass/Rush/Rec)   INTs (for QBs)

Tua                           4,267                                           26                               10

Josh                         4,191                                            40                               15

Dak                          4,129                                            32                                7

Brock*                      3,933                                           31                                7

 

CMC*                       1,801                                            20

Tyreek                     1,656                                            12

Mostert                   1,187                                             21

 

*At this point, Brock and CMC have played 1 fewer game than all of the rest of the players.

 

In my way of looking at this, CMC eliminates Tyreek and Mostert (because he is definitely ahead of them, so they are out). Mostert shouldn't even be in the covo, and though Tyreek is the most important player on Miami, he's not more important to them than CMC is to San Fran. So, to me, it comes down to CMC vs. the QBs.

 

Tua has the most total yards (only 78 more than Josh)---let's say Brock throws for 300 against Baltimore today (which is unlikely), he'd be at 4,233 (34 yards behind Tua, and 42 yards ahead of Josh). So, the most likely scenario would be Brock jumping Dak, but not Josh and Tua in yards. Josh is way ahead in TDs. Even if Purdy gets 3 today, he's still 6 behind Josh. And, of course, Josh has the most INTs.

 

So, the 4 QBs are all really close in total yards (all within 138 yards of each other---about 9 yards per game only). And record-wise, Josh is one game behind Dak and two behind Tua and Brock. In a team-based sport, I don't think a record that is 1-2 games better is that significant in crowning an MVP (especially when Josh's team blew out both Tua's and Dak's teams).

 

So, it really comes down to TDs vs. INTs and perceptions.

Josh averages 1 more INT per 3 games than Tua, but almost one more TD per game (.933) than Tua. So for every extra pick that Josh throws in comparison to Tua, he scores 3 more TDs. I'll take that any day.

Josh averages 1 more INT per 2 games than Dak, but one more TD per 2 games than Dak. Since not every turnover leads to a TD. I'll take this ratio too.

Josh averages 1 more INT per 2 games than Brock, but almost one more TD per 2 games (.900) than Brock. Again, TDs trump INTs, but this is a bit closer.

 

So, again, I'm not saying Josh should be the MVP, but why shouldn't he be in the conversation when he has the second most total yards in the league and his TD totals at least balance, if not way overcome the extra picks.

 

Edited December 25, 2023 by folz