2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Total QBR as a predictor of NFL MVP's

 

The last 10 NFL MVP's since a non QB last won the award in 2012 (Adridan Peterson). Text in bold indicates they led the league in QBR that year.

 

2013- Peyton Manning 79.0
2014- Aaron Rodgers 77.8
2015 - Cam Newton 61.4
2016 - Matt Ryan 79.6
2017 - Tom Brady 70.6
2018 - Patrick Mahomes 80.3
2019 - Lamar Jackson 83.0
2020 - Aaron Rodgers 79.8
2021 - Aaron Rodgers 69.1
2022 - Patrick Mahomes 79.0


Current top 3 QBR leaders this season:

Brock Purdy - 75.6
Dak Prescott - 75.4
Josh Allen - 72.4

 

Newton by far has the lowest QBR of recent MVP winners. A 15-1 record and a monster 45 TD season carried him the MVP. 

 

My prediction is Dak wins the MVP. Allen wins the MVP if the Bills win out. Purdy is the question mark. Feels like many are trying to find reasons to not give the award to him. If Dak cools off and the Cowboys drop 2 of 3 to Eagles, Bills and Dolphins and the Bills don't win out, I can see the award coming down to Purdy vs. Tyreek. 

[transplantbillsfan]

Ya know... watching this game in the 1st half... I said to my buddy that I wanted Allen to go just one game without throwing an interception in order to shut the haters up.

 

He didn't do that.

 

And so as I watched Football Night in America, they showed highlights of the Bills vs Chiefs game. During the highlights, they literally only showed blunders by the Buffalo offense like the interception and miscommunication on other plays along with "missed opportunities" by KC.

 

Yes, this was immediately followed by all the great plays Allen made, including that absolutely unbelievable sideline pass to Murray that I honestly thought would be overturned as a catch. But the lead was Josh Allen blunders.

 

Allen has 6 more TDs than any other QB in the NFL right now...

 

we should really talk about turnovers and miscommunication before we talk about anything else, though... makes sense I guess...

 

[C.Biscuit97]

On 12/6/2023 at 12:36 PM, finn said:

Yes, those are two examples of what I mean by Allen's "doing more with less." Another example is Gabe Davis, whom Allen hits right in the hands and in stride most of the time. Davis' catch rate is still abysmal, but it's probably as good as it will ever be, unless Allen walks down the field and gently hands the ball to him.  

KC has the most drops in nfl. I don’t know anyone can think Mahkmes doesn’t have a way worse cast of weapons than Allen.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

11 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Ya know... watching this game in the 1st half... I said to my buddy that I wanted Allen to go just one game without throwing an interception in order to shut the haters up.

 

He didn't do that.

 

And so as I watched Football Night in America, they showed highlights of the Bills vs Chiefs game. During the highlights, they literally only showed blunders by the Buffalo offense like the interception and miscommunication on other plays along with "missed opportunities" by KC.

 

Yes, this was immediately followed by all the great plays Allen made, including that absolutely unbelievable sideline pass to Murray that I honestly thought would be overturned as a catch. But the lead was Josh Allen blunders.

 

Allen has 6 more TDs than any other QB in the NFL right now...

 

we should really talk about turnovers and miscommunication before we talk about anything else, though... makes sense I guess...

 

Crazy we are 3-3 vs the chiefs given that in 2020 they were objectively a much better roster than us and 5 of the 6 have been at arrowhead 

5 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

KC has the most drops in nfl. I don’t know anyone can think Mahkmes doesn’t have a way worse cast of weapons than Allen.

He’s got Kelce and an elite offensive line…if given a choice between elite secondary weapons and a stout oline I’m taking the oline every single time

 

heck josh made Robert foster look like an all pro his rookie year…has mahomes done that for anybody? 

Edited December 11, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Crazy we are 3-3 vs the chiefs given that in 2020 they were objectively a much better roster than us and 5 of the 6 have been at arrowhead 

Has their roster been that much better? For years, we had the better defense. They haven’t had hill for the last 2 years and have garbage at receiver (though I like Rice). We added Kincaid who might already be a top 5 TE. Our oline has improved and theirs isn’t as good. I think our roster is better right now.

[17islongenough]

This was completed 

[TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th]

8 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

KC has the most drops in nfl. I don’t know anyone can think Mahkmes doesn’t have a way worse cast of weapons than Allen.

Assuming we are ignoring offensive lines. KC has the Tight End advantage with the best one of all time. Running backs I'd say is a wash. Bills have the better receivers because of Diggs but outside of him? Is Gabe Davis even a #3 receiver on another team ? I think their weapons are very similar. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

IMO it would take 4 things for Josh to win the MVP this year.

 

1. Buffalo runs the table. 

2. Buffalo wins AFCE title.

3. Dak comes back to Earth and Dallas fails to win NFCE.

4. Allen puts up huge passing stats the rest of the year with minimal turnovers.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

12 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Has their roster been that much better? For years, we had the better defense. They haven’t had hill for the last 2 years and have garbage at receiver (though I like Rice). We added Kincaid who might already be a top 5 TE. Our oline has improved and theirs isn’t as good. I think our roster is better right now.

In 2020 with hill/Kelce when we had end of his shelf life Cole Beasley, John brown, and diggs id say so.  The chiefs defense was top 10 in the league in points allowed that year also so it’s not like they were crazy far behind on the defensive side either 

 

I was talkin about 2020 specifically when I said their roster was better where they got 2 of those 3 wins.  Now I’d say it’s us

Edited December 11, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Warriorspikes51]

he won't win it.  It'll be Dak, Purdy or Hurts. 

However, if we finish 11-6 and Allen racks up another 12-15 TD's over 4 games

that puts him between 47-50 TD's  which is a clear MVP stat line 

 

[Process]

Dak is having the best season but I think Purdy wins it because they will be the 1 seed and Eagles will win the NFCE

[C.Biscuit97]

34 minutes ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

Assuming we are ignoring offensive lines. KC has the Tight End advantage with the best one of all time. Running backs I'd say is a wash. Bills have the better receivers because of Diggs but outside of him? Is Gabe Davis even a #3 receiver on another team ? I think their weapons are very similar. 

Their oline isn’t as good this year (they lost both their OTs from last year) and ours improved. And Davis would at worst be their number 2 if not their number 1. They have a bunch of 4 & 5s at receiver, minus a rookie in Rice. 

27 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

In 2020 with hill/Kelce when we had end of his shelf life Cole Beasley, John brown, and diggs id say so.  The chiefs defense was top 10 in the league in points allowed that year also so it’s not like they were crazy far behind on the defensive side either 

 

I was talkin about 2020 specifically when I said their roster was better where they got 2 of those 3 wins.  Now I’d say it’s us

I don’t disagree. They did win it without Hill last year but I think that lack of receiver talent is finally catching up to them. 

[bouds]

Purdy has been ridiculous, and he has one more hurdle with the Ravens, they pulverize that defense and it's probably his.   Dak's up there too, but Purdy's just locked in right now. 

[CaptnCoke11]

If Allen wins out and continues playing well i think he could get it 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

50 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

IMO it would take 4 things for Josh to win the MVP this year.

 

1. Buffalo runs the table. 

2. Buffalo wins AFCE title.

3. Dak comes back to Earth and Dallas fails to win NFCE.

4. Allen puts up huge passing stats the rest of the year with minimal turnovers.

I think it simply comes down to the bills running the table. At that point, I believe Brock Purdy would be his stiffest competition for the award.

 

Dak would essentially be eliminated because he lost the head to head to both Purdy and Allen and at that point the Cowboys would likely be looking at a wildcard with the Eagles taking the division.

 

and even if the bills don’t win the division in this scenario, they would have swept, Tyreek Hill and Tua.

 

The only other candidate is Lamar, but again, he would statistically be the least deserving candidate in well over 10 years. 

[Drew21PA]

Josh Allen wins out and leads this team to the playoffs and steering them through this storm this season ?

 

hard to think he won’t be in the fonversation

 

BUT….how you can’t look at mvp and think tyreek hill isn’t it is beyond me 

[Warriorspikes51]

Allen has 12 more TD's than Mahomes and yet MVP odds are

+1500 Mahomes
+2200 Allen 

[Billsatlastin2018]

1 hour ago, 17islongenough said:

This was completed 

ANYBODY who saw that and is aware of his numerous other going out of bounds sideline laser TD Passes or numerous hurdling of LBs 100% knows that this dude is a freak Unicorn!

 

NEVER seen before in the history of the NFL! 
 

This one, the first, but not last of its kind, was like a fall away Jump Shot- only Sideways! Nada short of incredible! 
 

Allen is already # 82 ALL TIME in TD Passes. (Kermit is #39).
#104 in Passing Yards.

# 2 in Rushing TDs with 48. Cam Newton is #1 with 75.

 

#25 in Passing TDs All Time in the Playoffs. (Mahomes is #8).

#27 in Passing Yards. (Mahomes is #10).

Of course, to go higher in the last two categories, ya gotta get there and WIN!

 

Allen is by far the greatest QB Buffalo has ever seen and by virtue of a lengthy career barring serious injury, should be right there with the GOAT at the end.

 

Maybe… as the GOAT!

 

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, 17islongenough said:

This was completed 

 

Twenty yards down field to boot!

 

[finn]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

KC has the most drops in nfl. I don’t know anyone can think Mahkmes doesn’t have a way worse cast of weapons than Allen.

The Bills led the league in drops last year, a fact that didn't get half the attention the Chiefs are getting for their dropped passes this year. The Narrative at work: Mahomes the messiah heroically struggling to make up for his teammates' incompetence. The Bills' drops last year? Crickets. 

 

The fact is, both Mahomes and Allen have just one quality receiver and otherwise a bunch of meh. I keep thinking how different the Bills would be today if Beane had drafted Pickens instead of Elam last year.