2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[Warcodered]

7 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

If he plays great next week on the road in Cinci in primetime and wins in front of the whole country, then sure it will change. If he plays poorly and the Bills lose then he's probably in an insurmountable hole.

 

 

If you're feeling lucky he's +1500 on Caesars. 

Yeah it's an MVP bet, by it's nature very unlikely, you're betting on 1 among many of the too guys and only 1 wins and a lot goes into it and a lot can go wrong. The point is right now I wouldn't really rate Josh's odds that different from the others the field is a mess right now. Josh has played well enough and still has the right big games to be able to make a run. So the disparity between his odds and the others make it a good value bet.

[GunnerBill]

MVP is as much about the narrative as the stats. If there was a vote right now Tua wins it. 

 

If Josh goes on a tear against the Bills tougher stretch opponents he could well still end up with the stats and the narrative.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

14 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

Unfortunately I don't think you can bet on postseason awards in new york

Ohhhh that is the issue I’m having haha that explains a lot 

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

MVP is as much about the narrative as the stats. If there was a vote right now Tua wins it. 

 

If Josh goes on a tear against the Bills tougher stretch opponents he could well still end up with the stats and the narrative.

Yea it’s a bit surprising to me that he’s the leader in tds and only a game behind the dolphins/chiefs with one to play against both those teams and he still has long shot odds 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, QCity said:

Patrick Mahomes +270

Jalen Hurts +350

Tua Tagovailoa +370

Lamar Jackson +600

Josh Allen +1400

 

I mean, he's in a wayyyy distant 5th.  He's not going to score votes outside of his own fanbase by beating the Raiders, Giants, and Bucs.

That’s not what voters care about. If it were how is Tua in third with beating only nobodies and losing to the only two good teams he has faced?

[buffblue]

Never really understood the tracking of an individual player's MVP odds based solely on statistics and from a purely rooting interest (from a betting standpoint I get it). 

 

Just win games. If we do that, chances are Allen will be playing well, and his odds for accolades increase. If they don't, who cares. Just win games

[QCity]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

MVP is as much about the narrative as the stats. If there was a vote right now Tua wins it. 

 

If Josh goes on a tear against the Bills tougher stretch opponents he could well still end up with the stats and the narrative.

 

It has almost nothing to do with "narrative." After stats the 2nd biggest correlating factor is team regular season win-loss record (voting happens before the playoffs). The last 6 MVPs were QBs that led their team to the #1 seed and home-field advantage.

 

31 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

 The point is right now I wouldn't really rate Josh's odds that different from the others the field is a mess right now. Josh has played well enough and still has the right big games to be able to make a run. So the disparity between his odds and the others make it a good value bet.

 

You might not, but every sportsbook in the country would. Be careful, these books make a fortune off hometown fans that overrate their team/players and think they see value where none exists. We haven't been playing well against mediocre opponents, the schedule gets tougher, and the weather is going to get a lot worse.

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 hours ago, QCity said:

 

It has almost nothing to do with "narrative." After stats the 2nd biggest correlating factor is team regular season win-loss record (voting happens before the playoffs). The last 6 MVPs were QBs that led their team to the #1 seed and home-field advantage.

 

 

You might not, but every sportsbook in the country would. Be careful, these books make a fortune off hometown fans that overrate their team/players and think they see value where none exists. We haven't been playing well against mediocre opponents, the schedule gets tougher, and the weather is going to get a lot worse.

 

It’s a really interesting situation…looking back in the past it’s mostly been players winning it on the best team but you can’t really point to a time where they obviously passed up somebody with better stats because there were better teams either lol I really don’t know what would even happen in a hypothetical scenario where maybe he is pretty clearly the best statistical qb but the bills snag a wildcard or are the 4 seed or something like that 

 

I do understand the point you’re making for sure but +1400 for the guy leading in tds thats team is only a game behind the division/conference leader with an opportunity against a lot of heavy hitters feels like pretty good value.  I’d roll the dice on it if it was legal in this state 😂. I figure he should be in the +700/+800 range in what I’d put his chances at of goin off in the second half.  I was pretty shocked to see +1400

 

 

 

Edited October 31, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, QCity said:

 

It has almost nothing to do with "narrative." After stats the 2nd biggest correlating factor is team regular season win-loss record (voting happens before the playoffs). The last 6 MVPs were QBs that led their team to the #1 seed and home-field advantage.

 

 

Isn't that part of the narrative though? It's not just how well the guy has played it is how much he is perceived to have made his team contenders. 

[Chandler#81]

On 10/29/2023 at 10:19 PM, FireChans said:

Yep, Mahomes had a bad loss today. Had a bad loss to Detroit too. Josh has 3 bad losses.

 

3 is more than 2.

 

Well, when you put it THAT way, I guess it’s settled!

[Billsatlastin2018]

12 hours ago, section122 said:

 

Unfortunately I don't think you can bet on postseason awards in new york

You can bet an MVP, an Offensive/ Defensive Rookie of the Year, Division Winners and Parlays, Conference, SB,etc., etc. in NY or MARS! 
 

Just not physically there.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Isn't that part of the narrative though? It's not just how well the guy has played it is how much he is perceived to have made his team contenders. 

 

Hill is a legit top 10 MVP candidate on Tua's own team. That is sort of where it doesn't make sense for me. I also think Tua and Miami eventually have to beat a real contender for Tue to stay near the top of the odds or Vegas will start to cool on him. Mahomes is playing with one of the best defenses in the entire league for the first time in his career. Allen for years has basically been the Bills entire offense and now the Bills defense has taken a huge step back with the three key players they have lost for the season. 

 

I think the reason Allen is currently +1400 or whatever is that the odds makers feel the Bills won't finish anywhere close to the one seed. They very well could be accurate in that prediction as well. If that is the case Allen will need to lead the runner up in TD's  by 10+ to have a real chance at the MVP.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Hill is a legit top 10 MVP candidate on Tua's own team. That is sort of where it doesn't make sense for me. I also think Tua and Miami eventually have to beat a real contender for Tue to stay near the top of the odds or Vegas will start to cool on him. Mahomes is playing with one of the best defenses in the entire league for the first time in his career. Allen for years has basically been the Bills entire offense and now the Bills defense has taken a huge step back with the three key players they have lost for the season. 

 

I think the reason Allen is currently +1400 or whatever is that the odds makers feel the Bills won't finish anywhere close to the one seed. They very well could be accurate in that prediction as well. If that is the case Allen will need to lead the runner up in TD's  by 10+ to have a real chance at the MVP.  

 

 

 

Exactly, it's narrative. If the Dolphins are 12-5 but look like paper tigers come the end of the regular season with losses to Buffalo (x2), Philadelphia, Kansas City, Dallas and Baltimore it won't be Tua. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

1 hour ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

You can bet an MVP, an Offensive/ Defensive Rookie of the Year, Division Winners and Parlays, Conference, SB,etc., etc. in NY or MARS! 
 

Just not physically there.

Idk I don’t see the mvp bets showing up on any of the apps and when I Google it I’ll find a link to place an mvp bet through DraftKings or whatnot and the link will just take me to the football Home Screen 

 

maybe I can drive to CT and try it 😂

Edited October 31, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Billsatlastin2018]

7 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Idk I don’t see the mvp bets showing up on any of the apps and when I Google it I’ll find a link to place an mvp bet through DraftKings or whatnot and the link will just take me to the football Home Screen 

 

maybe I can drive to CT and try it 😂

Bet365 & fanduel are our 2 go tos. 

ALL of those futures are available daily.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[Billsfan1972]

And if Allen outplays Mahomes & Hurts then he will be the favourite.  

 

However right now at 15:1 that is a good bet.

 

The whole thing however is silly in my book.

[BuffBillsForLife]

It is unfortunately true that Allen's turnovers are unfairly held in worse regard than turnovers by other QBs, e.g., Mahomes.  But it's also true that Allen does in fact turn the ball over too damn often, and "arm punts" and tipped balls are just excuses fans make.

 

If Miami finishes strong it presents an interesting dilemma for MVP voters.  QB usually gets it automatically, but if Tyreek really does hit 2k yards how can it go to Tua over him?  But at the same time how can it go to a WR when a QB needs to get the ball to them in the first place?

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, BuffBillsForLife said:

It is unfortunately true that Allen's turnovers are unfairly held in worse regard than turnovers by other QBs, e.g., Mahomes.  But it's also true that Allen does in fact turn the ball over too damn often, and "arm punts" and tipped balls are just excuses fans make.

 

If Miami finishes strong it presents an interesting dilemma for MVP voters.  QB usually gets it automatically, but if Tyreek really does hit 2k yards how can it go to Tua over him?  But at the same time how can it go to a WR when a QB needs to get the ball to them in the first place?

382 of his 1,014 yards are YAC.  Near 40% of his receiving yards.  That's a pretty good reason why.

 

I'd be interested in how that compares with other top receivers.  Actually found it.

 

http://hosted.stats.com/fb/leaders.asp?range=NFL&type=Receiving&rank=231

 

 

 

Edited November 1, 2023 by The Wiz

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Talk about the ball not bouncing your way. He literally has more turnovers than turnover worthy plays.

Edited November 2, 2023 by Sammy Watkins' Rib