2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[FireChans]

8 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

😂😂Most people use late game/4th quarter production as indicative of QB quality

 

Not @FireChanstho

I use late game 4th production indicative of defense quality too. Shout out the clutch Jordan Poyer keeping the Allen MVP dream alive.

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Dude are you paying attention to what you're saying? 

 

If you are... are you watching football that isn't Bills football?

 

Go scope out the number of Turnovers all those other QB MVP candidates have and get back to us. And then after you make some ridiculous claim like Allen having more Turnovers than Mahomes (by 1), Tua (by 1), Jackson (by 2), or Lawrence (by 3) take a look at how many more TDs Allen has than all of them.

He has more TD’s than all of them.

 

1 turnover less in the Jets or the Pats and we probably win both games.

 

Both are true.

8 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

He also had a textbook perfect definition of an "arm punt" in that game which is why he had an insanely good 89.6 QBR to go along with that poor passer rating. Passer rating is only accurate if you watch the entire game and no what actually happened. I want to say that this was also the game that Shakir dropped a perfectly placed TD pass as well. Again, his QBR for the game was really, really high. 

Arm punt interceptions are still interceptions. 
 

He threw lots vs the Jets.

[FireChans]

8 hours ago, AlfaBill said:

Remember when John Elway and Steve Young were known for the 4th comeback heroics? It was a sign of greatness 

I remember praising the HELL out of Young and Elway for playing poorly all game, turning it on for the last five minutes, and losing anyway. 
 

Got them to the HoF, imo.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

24 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

Arm punt interceptions are still interceptions. 
 

He threw lots vs the Jets.

 

He's thrown the same amount as Hurts and Mahomes.

 

But he has a better QBR on the season than both in part because a good number of his INT's, I think three, have been arm punts. 

 

An incompletion is an incompletion, but throwing a ball in the dirt at a WR's feet who is wide open for an easy TD is a different kind of incompletion than throwing the ball away when nobody is open. 

 

Allen had an excellent game against the Commanders. His 89 QBR pretty much matched what our eyes saw in that game.

32 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I use late game 4th production indicative of defense quality too. Shout out the clutch Jordan Poyer keeping the Allen MVP dream alive.

 

 

In hindsight it would have been preferable to force a punt after a three and out or even a six and out in order to take more time off the clock. Bills needed to get the ball back but getting it back around the Patriots 30-yard line forced a short drive that left too much time on the clock for the Patriots ultimately. 

[dave mcbride]

11 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

 

So how do you see it now with Allen and Mahome each having 8 INT's on the season but Allen having a whopping 7 more TD's than Mahomes?

 

Another fact about the two QB's and their teams, they are combined 0-5 in games where their defense gave up more than 20 points. It seems that for this year, you are essentially crediting Mahomes as the better QB simply because he has a better defense and thus one less loss than Allen and the Bills.  It is a bit odd because it would seem the QB that has the lesser defense should be credited with more value and success, not less. 

Allen is leading the league in QBR: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/passing.htm#passing::pass_int_perc

[balln]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Allen is leading the league in QBR: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/passing.htm#passing::pass_int_perc

And they’re 5-3

 

arguably should be a top ALL passer stats at this point against an easy schedule 

[Big Turk]

2 minutes ago, balln said:

And they’re 5-3

 

arguably should be a top ALL passer stats at this point against an easy schedule 

 

That's not how it works in the NFL. You know this, stop being ridiculous.

[TheBrownBear]

1 hour ago, dave mcbride said:

Allen is leading the league in QBR: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/passing.htm#passing::pass_int_perc

It's pretty amazing the amount of sh*t we give to the #1 QB in the NFL.  I understand creating space for legit criticism, but reading the board at times you'd think we were still trotting guys like Bledsoe, Fitz, Taylor, Manuel, etc. out there.  This isn't a holier than thou post, I'm guilty of it sometimes as well. 

[balln]

2 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

It's pretty amazing the amount of sh*t we give to the #1 QB in the NFL.  I understand creating space for legit criticism, but reading the board at times you'd think we were still trotting guys like Bledsoe, Fitz, Taylor, Manuel, etc. out there.  This isn't a holier than thou post, I'm guilty of it sometimes as well. 

Bc they are 5-3. In no universe should they have lost jets and pats 

[The Wiz]

 

 

Is this bad, I feel like it's bad.

 

Edited October 30, 2023 by The Wiz

[QCity]

Patrick Mahomes +270

Jalen Hurts +350

Tua Tagovailoa +370

Lamar Jackson +600

Josh Allen +1400

 

I mean, he's in a wayyyy distant 5th.  He's not going to score votes outside of his own fanbase by beating the Raiders, Giants, and Bucs.

[The Wiz]

11 minutes ago, QCity said:

Patrick Mahomes +270

Jalen Hurts +350

Tua Tagovailoa +370

Lamar Jackson +600

Josh Allen +1400

 

I mean, he's in a wayyyy distant 5th.  He's not going to score votes outside of his own fanbase by beating the Raiders, Giants, and Bucs.

I personally don't care about the MVP but the fact that Mahomes launched up to +270 after a 3 TO, 0 TD game against a team he has beaten since he joined the league is laughable.

 

Apparently hurts, Tua, Lamar and Allen played worse enough to get him moved up.

 

Edited October 30, 2023 by The Wiz

[Warcodered]

10 minutes ago, QCity said:

Patrick Mahomes +270

Jalen Hurts +350

Tua Tagovailoa +370

Lamar Jackson +600

Josh Allen +1400

 

I mean, he's in a wayyyy distant 5th.  He's not going to score votes outside of his own fanbase by beating the Raiders, Giants, and Bucs.

Honestly if that's the line just betting wise that's probably a pretty good one to make, he's only perceived to be behind the others that could change real quick.

[transplantbillsfan]

25 minutes ago, QCity said:

Patrick Mahomes +270

Jalen Hurts +350

Tua Tagovailoa +370

Lamar Jackson +600

Josh Allen +1400

 

I mean, he's in a wayyyy distant 5th.  He's not going to score votes outside of his own fanbase by beating the Raiders, Giants, and Bucs.

 

Pretty much makes zero sense based on the way all those QBs have actually been playing.

[SoonerBillsFan]

18 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

There’s so much more season left, and this could be a year where someone who was written off early makes a late run from nowhere and takes it.
 

Allen is in the race based solely on his statistical outlier of a season so far compared to other QBs, and you are correct that his team is 5-3 making it virtually impossible to win without a leading #1 QB record. When you finish in the middle of the pack record wise everything you failed at doing is amplified. 
 

As we all know it’s not how you start but how you finish.
 

If Josh is the have any shot at MVP, he will have to fare well down the stretch run against the likes of @ Burrow, @ Hurts, @ Mahomes, H Prescott, @ Herbert & @ Tua. It’s likely Allen will be a road dog in all but the Chargers game. 
 

3/5 of those QBs are the early MVP favorites, and Burrow & Herbert could easily be added to the convo. Luckily for us those games are critical to the Bills season.

 

 

We have to win all of those amd Josh have amazing stats doing it to have any prayer at MVP

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

19 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

There’s so much more season left, and this could be a year where someone who was written off early makes a late run from nowhere and takes it.
 

Allen is in the race based solely on his statistical outlier of a season so far compared to other QBs, and you are correct that his team is 5-3 making it virtually impossible to win without a leading #1 QB record. When you finish in the middle of the pack record wise everything you failed at doing is amplified. 
 

As we all know it’s not how you start but how you finish.
 

If Josh is the have any shot at MVP, he will have to fare well down the stretch run against the likes of @ Burrow, @ Hurts, @ Mahomes, H Prescott, @ Herbert & @ Tua. It’s likely Allen will be a road dog in all but the Chargers game. 
 

3/5 of those QBs are the early MVP favorites, and Burrow & Herbert could easily be added to the convo. Luckily for us those games are critical to the Bills season.

 

 

This is shaping up to be a really interesting season of mvp voting…I think just based on his situation of having to carry the defense every week josh is probably gonna finish with the best stats.  Not sure how many wins it will translate to though. 
 

the futures bets do seem to be heavily influenced by who’s winning but that could be  partly factoring in certain guys turning it around.  Hurts is up near the top in futures betting but if the season ended today I don’t think he’d have a chance.  Mahomes lost some skill position talent but his defense has stepped up, I thought he was a sure thing based on the schedule remaining but that broncos loss hurt.  Tua will keep roasting bad teams but he’s got a great running game that encroaches on his stats a bit.  
 

josh at +1200 seems like a pretty insane value bet for a guy that’s leading in some major statistical categories right now. 

 

 

Edited October 30, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[QCity]

1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

Honestly if that's the line just betting wise that's probably a pretty good one to make, he's only perceived to be behind the others that could change real quick.

 

If he plays great next week on the road in Cinci in primetime and wins in front of the whole country, then sure it will change. If he plays poorly and the Bills lose then he's probably in an insurmountable hole.

 

10 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

josh at +1200 seems like a pretty insane value bet 
 

 

If you're feeling lucky he's +1500 on Caesars. 

[Behindenemylines]

The only MVP I care about is SB MVP

 

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

7 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

If he plays great next week on the road in Cinci in primetime and wins in front of the whole country, then sure it will change. If he plays poorly and the Bills lose then he's probably in an insurmountable hole.

 

 

If you're feeling lucky he's +1500 on Caesars. 

Trying to place that bet as we speak lol I think he’s one good game in the national spotlight away from jumping to +400 

 

At some point even if the team only wins 10 games I feel like his stats could be a tier above everyone to the point where they might have to give it to him but I have genuinely no idea how they’d handle that if it happens 😂. 

Edited October 31, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[section122]

11 minutes ago, QCity said:

 

 

If you're feeling lucky he's +1500 on Caesars. 

 

Unfortunately I don't think you can bet on postseason awards in new york

[QCity]

1 minute ago, section122 said:

 

Unfortunately I don't think you can bet on postseason awards in new york

 

Yeah you can't bet on individual futures in NY, only team futures like Superbowl winner, division winners, best record etc.