2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[Punch]

McCaffrey shouldn't win MVP because (as with today's loss) whether or not he gives an outstanding performance, it doesn't impact the game as meaningfully as the QB's performance.

 

Once again, he was outstanding today--- yet the 49ers lost for the 3rd consecutive week because Purdy struggled.

Edited October 30, 2023 by Punch

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Part of me wonders if we'll finally get a non-QB MVP this year? McCaffrey? Hill? No one QB is clearly dominating the competition.

Hill maybe on their current trajectory but odds are they run into more actual defenses and lose, McCaffrey needs his team to stop losing, if that's true for a QB can't see how that isn't also important for him.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

52 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Josh is one of the best QB's in the NFL.  But, obviously, on the Bills boards, every loss, including the ones where he's dog**** for 55 minutes, aren't his fault.  That's cool.  The NFL media and the people who vote for MVP don't believe that. Sucks, but its the truth.

 

 

The NFL media and voters are going to start to see a QB that leads in TD's by a lot, is one or two in completion percentage and doesn't have any more INT's then Mahomes or Hurts. 

 

Looking ahead, the Bengals game is massive. Chiefs or Dolphins will lose next week in the early game. That means the door will be wide open for Allen and the Bills to take the division lead or be in great position to finish the season ahead of KC if the Bills go on to win the head to head later in the year. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

23 minutes ago, FireChans said:

10 points in 55 minutes is a bad day. The 2 TD's were the late game heroics.

 

Oh, what's also hilarious is that the defense forced a clutch TO to even GIVE Josh the chance to take the lead.   Without the Poyer punch, Josh may have never touched the ball again. 

 

That damn defense letting Josh down lmao.

My point was that the MVP award is a combination of wins and stats. If you have more losses (ie less wins), your chance to win the award goes down.

Football is rarely perfectly linear on offense quarter to quarter…I don’t really know why anyone would completely discount late game touchdowns like that.  
 

it’s pretty often that it takes time for an offense to adapt and they start scoring late and win the game .  25 points is 25 points, that would have beat the patriots by at least 4 in any other game they played this year

 

[Billl]

56 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Purdy and Tua as recently as three weeks ago were #1 and #2 in MVP odds... It's a silly award.

How does that demonstrate that its a silly award?

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

41 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Legitimately do not get the people who have such a hard on for Allen but go off I guess😂😂

 

 

Lol I really think this is mostly imaginary in the more pessimist fans heads.  I don’t see a lot of josh Allen defenders saying he’s perfect and can do no wrong,  but I see a lot of people saying ‘why does everyone think josh can do no wrong’ haha 

 

the dude absolutely has flaws but all the mvp candidates have fallen on their face numerous times this season is the point. If we’re going to nitpick josh not showing up for 60 minutes every game, that level of criticism has to be applied to all others also up for the award. none of these guys are perfect, they are all missing reads and not setting protections right occasionally and so on 

Edited October 30, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Warcodered]

28 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Sorry, I simply cannot agree. I watched both games as well.

 

Mahomes also was penalized for a complete farcical "safety" penalty from a facemask on the 1 yard line. Which is a change of possession and two points on the board for the opponents.

 

Ya'll wanna talk about "putting team in a position to win." Let's do that.

 

QB1 gets the ball 13-13, 4 minutes in the fourth. TO on the first play. Opposing team immediately gets points.

 

QB2 gets the ball 23-20, 7 minutes in the fourth. Offense gets TWO holding penalties on the drive. They also benefited by two defensive penalties. QB2 orchestrates a drive with a combination of scrambles and passing (his RBs on this drive had a total of 13 yards on 9 carries) and ices the game.

 

Woah, looks like one of the players came up clutch and put their team in a position to win. I wonder who was who lmao.

So we're just going to conveniently ignore QB1 then driving his team into FG range to keep his team in the game? Like he had a ridiculous game no argument it made no sense it was so weird, the fumble that never ***** happens, we've seen him quickly react to so many off snapped balls, not saying that one was or that's what happened, and then he just doesn't get that one in that specific moment like WTF.

1 minute ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Lol I really think this is mostly imaginary in the more pessimist fans heads.  I don’t see a lot of josh Allen defenders saying he’s perfect and can do no wrong,  but I see a lot of people saying ‘why does everyone think josh can do no wrong’ haha 

 

the dude absolutely has flaws but all the mvp candidates have fallen on their face numerous times this season is the point. If we’re going to nitpick josh not showing up for 60 minutes every game, that level of criticism has to be applied to all others also up for the award. 

 

Yeah the field is enough of a mess that it's open for Josh to make a run at this point, he still has to actually do it of course.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

59 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I love Josh Allen. I realize it's like picking nits because he's obviously awesome and he's, at least, the second best QB in football. But when he makes bad plays that keep him at "the second best QB in football," it's very frustrating.

 

There's nothing I would love more than Patrick Mahomes to throw 35 picks and lose every game, and Josh to throw for 50 TD's and 8 picks. But until that happens, I'm gonna have to call it like I see it.

 

 

So how do you see it now with Allen and Mahome each having 8 INT's on the season but Allen having a whopping 7 more TD's than Mahomes?

 

Another fact about the two QB's and their teams, they are combined 0-5 in games where their defense gave up more than 20 points. It seems that for this year, you are essentially crediting Mahomes as the better QB simply because he has a better defense and thus one less loss than Allen and the Bills.  It is a bit odd because it would seem the QB that has the lesser defense should be credited with more value and success, not less. 

[HappyDays]

16 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Looking ahead, the Bengals game is massive. Chiefs or Dolphins will lose next week in the early game. That means the door will be wide open for Allen and the Bills to take the division lead or be in great position to finish the season ahead of KC if the Bills go on to win the head to head later in the year. 

 

Us finishing ahead of KC only matters if we win our division... KC already has that locked up by default. So I'm rooting for them over Miami next week. I'll worry about seeding in January.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Josh Allen had a 79.9 passer rating against the Commanders and benefited from his defense outscoring the Washington offense.

 

 

He also had a textbook perfect definition of an "arm punt" in that game which is why he had an insanely good 89.6 QBR to go along with that poor passer rating. Passer rating is only accurate if you watch the entire game and no what actually happened. I want to say that this was also the game that Shakir dropped a perfectly placed TD pass as well. Again, his QBR for the game was really, really high. 

Edited October 30, 2023 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[Warcodered]

1 minute ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

He also had a textbook perfect definition of an "arm punt" in that game which is why he had an insanely good 89.6 QBR to go along with that poor passer rating. Passer rating is only accurate if you watch the entire game and no what actually happened. 

It was also the game where we ran in our TDs instead of throwing them, that probably didn't help his rating either.

[GoBills808]

23 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Football is rarely perfectly linear on offense quarter to quarter…I don’t really know why anyone would completely discount late game touchdowns like that.  
 

it’s pretty often that it takes time for an offense to adapt and they start scoring late and win the game .  25 points is 25 points, that would have beat the patriots by at least 4 in any other game they played this year

 

😂😂Most people use late game/4th quarter production as indicative of QB quality

 

Not @FireChanstho

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Counterpoint: If Josh Allen had turned it over only THREE times against the Jets, or hadn't thrown a pick his first play from scrimmage against the Pats, he would probably be the MVP favorite right now.

 

It's a W/L stat primarily, and unfortunately QB's who turn it over a lot turn some easy wins into losses.

 

Dude are you paying attention to what you're saying? 

 

If you are... are you watching football that isn't Bills football?

 

Go scope out the number of Turnovers all those other QB MVP candidates have and get back to us. And then after you make some ridiculous claim like Allen having more Turnovers than Mahomes (by 1), Tua (by 1), Jackson (by 2), or Lawrence (by 3) take a look at how many more TDs Allen has than all of them.

[DapperCam]

To me Tua, Allen and Mahomes are the top right now. For major stat categories they are all very close.

 

Allen has the most total TDs and highest completion %. Tua has the most passing yards and turnovers (6 fumbles!). Mahomes has the least turnovers of the three, and the most total yards.

Kirk Cousins probably had the most efficient stats, but he’s done. Wilson has very good stats as well curiously. 16 TDs to only 4 INTs. His yards are quite a bit lower, and his team is bad so he won’t get consideration.

[AlfaBill]

21 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

😂😂Most people use late game/4th quarter production as indicative of QB quality

 

Not @FireChanstho

Remember when John Elway and Steve Young were known for the 4th comeback heroics? It was a sign of greatness 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

57 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Hill maybe on their current trajectory but odds are they run into more actual defenses and lose, McCaffrey needs his team to stop losing, if that's true for a QB can't see how that isn't also important for him.

 

The last non-QB MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012 and the Vikings didn't even win their division that year. They finished as a 10-6 wild card. McCaffery will not have nearly the yards that AP had that year, but he is on pace to double AP's TD total from his MVP season. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

36 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

 

So how do you see it now with Allen and Mahome each having 8 INT's on the season but Allen having a whopping 7 more TD's than Mahomes?

 

Another fact about the two QB's and their teams, they are combined 0-5 in games where their defense gave up more than 20 points. It seems that for this year, you are essentially crediting Mahomes as the better QB simply because he has a better defense and thus one less loss than Allen and the Bills.  It is a bit odd because it would seem the QB that has the lesser defense should be credited with more value and success, not less. 

I really don’t think win/loss matters a whole lot assuming the team looks like a contender.  It’s pretty much a stats only award which has Allen in the thick of it.  It’s a flavor of the week thing who the ‘favorite’ is this early in the season and josh/the bills deservedly won’t be the flavor of the week for awhile after blowing that pats game 

I thought mahomes had a huge edge with teams like the broncos left on the schedule but he stumbled today.

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I really don’t think win/loss matters a whole lot assuming the team looks like a contender.

 

 

Ten straight MVP's have all been on teams that were the best team in their conference so Win/Loss does seem to play a huge role. Of course odds are, when you have two conferences, you are going to be able to find at least one QB out of the top two finishing teams that has really good and deserving stats. That is likely how it will play out this year as well. 

 

While we can sit here and say that Josh arguably has the best stats of all the QB's this year, that won't get it done if the Bills are not the best team in the conference. He needs to basically have unanimously better stats then the other QB's to win the MVP and not be on the best team. Good thing for him he is already +4 in TD's on all other QB's. And +7 on Mahomes. If he can finish the season in the +10 area they may just be a wide enough gap for the voters to recognize.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

24 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Ten straight MVP's have all been on teams that were the best team in their conference so Win/Loss does seem to play a huge role. Of course odds are, when you have two conferences, you are going to be able to find at least one QB out of the top two finishing teams that has really good and deserving stats. That is likely how it will play out this year as well. 

 

While we can sit here and say that Josh arguably has the best stats of all the QB's this year, that won't get it done if the Bills are not the best team in the conference. He needs to basically have unanimously better stats than the other QB's to win the MVP and not be on the best team. Good thing for him he is already +4 in TD's on all other QB's. And +7 on Mahomes. If he can finish the season in the +10 area they may just be a wide enough gap for the voters to recognize.

I mean it’s pretty likely the guy with the best qb stats is gonna be on the best team but it doesn’t always have to be true. Looking at the previous winners it’s not like they passed guys up because they didn’t have the regular season win total

 

im not disagreeing with your final paragraph at all I think that has a pretty decent chance of happening though.  The defense being not great actually kind of helps him…he’s gonna be in a lot of shootouts.  
 

the chiefs have had a fundamental shift where they’ve been winning mostly with defense so far which has shaken things up 

Edited October 30, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Dr.Sack]

9 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Ten straight MVP's have all been on teams that were the best team in their conference so Win/Loss does seem to play a huge role. Of course odds are, when you have two conferences, you are going to be able to find at least one QB out of the top two finishing teams that has really good and deserving stats. That is likely how it will play out this year as well. 

 

While we can sit here and say that Josh arguably has the best stats of all the QB's this year, that won't get it done if the Bills are not the best team in the conference. He needs to basically have unanimously better stats then the other QB's to win the MVP and not be on the best team. Good thing for him he is already +4 in TD's on all other QB's. And +7 on Mahomes. If he can finish the season in the +10 area they may just be a wide enough gap for the voters to recognize.

There’s so much more season left, and this could be a year where someone who was written off early makes a late run from nowhere and takes it.
 

Allen is in the race based solely on his statistical outlier of a season so far compared to other QBs, and you are correct that his team is 5-3 making it virtually impossible to win without a leading #1 QB record. When you finish in the middle of the pack record wise everything you failed at doing is amplified. 
 

As we all know it’s not how you start but how you finish.
 

If Josh is the have any shot at MVP, he will have to fare well down the stretch run against the likes of @ Burrow, @ Hurts, @ Mahomes, H Prescott, @ Herbert & @ Tua. It’s likely Allen will be a road dog in all but the Chargers game. 
 

3/5 of those QBs are the early MVP favorites, and Burrow & Herbert could easily be added to the convo. Luckily for us those games are critical to the Bills season.