2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

They have only been partially responsible for their losses less, because they've lost less.

 

If Mahomes had lost against the Jets he arguably would have been the biggest reason for it. His offense scored less against the Jaguars than ours did. Defense was the difference in those results, not the QB play. But that underscores my point - MVP is a subjective award that favors wins, not actual QB play. Purdy and Tua as recently as three weeks ago were #1 and #2 in MVP odds... It's a silly award.

 

As far as who has actually been the best QB over 8 weeks of play I don't think anyone has been better than Allen, but there's a couple he might be even with. Even Cousins deserves some flowers but he never had a real chance at the award because of his team's defense and running game.

[GoBills808]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

If Mahomes had lost against the Jets he arguably would have been the biggest reason for it. His offense scored less against the Jaguars than ours did. Defense was the difference in those results, not the QB play. But that underscores my point - MVP is a subjective award that favors wins, not actual QB play. Purdy and Tua as recently as three weeks ago were #1 and #2 in MVP odds... It's a silly award.

 

As far as who has actually been the best QB over 8 weeks of play I don't think anyone has been better than Allen, but there's a couple he might be even with. Even Cousins deserves some flowers but he never had a real chance at the award because of his team's defense and running game.

Correct

 

Esp on Jags point which I have made reference to a bunch 

[Boatdrinks]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Yep, Mahomes had a bad loss today. Had a bad loss to Detroit too. Josh has 3 bad losses.

 

3 is more than 2.

 

The award usually goes to the QB with a combo of top numbers and top or close to top record. Gotta get both if you want to win it.

 

I love Josh Allen. I realize it's like picking nits because he's obviously awesome and he's, at least, the second best QB in football. But when he makes bad plays that keep him at "the second best QB in football," it's very frustrating.

 

There's nothing I would love more than Patrick Mahomes to throw 35 picks and lose every game, and Josh to throw for 50 TD's and 8 picks. But until that happens, I'm gonna have to call it like I see it.

Your counterpoint has validity , but so does Happy Days’ original point. I honestly don’t care one bit about NFL MVP, but it’s fairly obvious you enjoy being a contrarian… not that there’s anything wrong with that ! 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, BillsFan130 said:

So we are just measuring QBs success on losses?

 

Once again, he had the game winning drive against NE.

 

But the defence could not slow down the worst offence in the NFL.

 

Mahomes was also bad in multiple wins this year, including scoring just 17 points a few weeks ago against Denver.
 

It’s a team game sir

Josh Allen had a 79.9 passer rating against the Commanders and benefited from his defense outscoring the Washington offense.

 

See this is what I'm talking about lmao. You feel like people are over critical of Allen (which I don't even necessarily disagree with on some platforms), then it's like, oh I guess I should do it the other way.

 

It's okay to say that Josh had a pretty bad day overall against the Pats and made some late game heroics to put us in a position to steal it. It's not okay to say the loss "wasn't his fault" because he had a game-winning drive against a tomato-can team that was debating firing their 6 time Super Bowl winning HC lmao.

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

If Mahomes had lost against the Jets he arguably would have been the biggest reason for it. His offense scored less against the Jaguars than ours did. Defense was the difference in those results, not the QB play. But that underscores my point - MVP is a subjective award that favors wins, not actual QB play. Purdy and Tua as recently as three weeks ago were #1 and #2 in MVP odds... It's a silly award.

 

As far as who has actually been the best QB over 8 weeks of play I don't think anyone has been better than Allen, but there's a couple he might be even with. Even Cousins deserves some flowers but he never had a real chance at the award because of his team's defense and running game.

Counterpoint. Mahomes had the ball with the chance to win the game at the end, and did it.

 

Allen had the ball with the chance to win the game at the end, and turned it over to give the Jets the lead.

 

Who had the better game?  Do you honestly believe they were equal performances?

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Josh Allen had a 79.9 passer rating against the Commanders and benefited from his defense outscoring the Washington offense.

 

See this is what I'm talking about lmao. You feel like people are over critical of Allen (which I don't even necessarily disagree with on some platforms), then it's like, oh I guess I should do it the other way.

 

It's okay to say that Josh had a pretty bad day overall against the Pats and made some late game heroics to put us in a position to steal it. It's not okay to say the loss "wasn't his fault" because he had a game-winning drive against a tomato-can team that was debating firing their 6 time Super Bowl winning HC lmao.

For one sec recognize how high the bar is when 66% comp for 265 3total TDs and 1 pick is a 'pretty bad day overall'

[BillsFan130]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Josh Allen had a 79.9 passer rating against the Commanders and benefited from his defense outscoring the Washington offense.

 

See this is what I'm talking about lmao. You feel like people are over critical of Allen (which I don't even necessarily disagree with on some platforms), then it's like, oh I guess I should do it the other way.

 

It's okay to say that Josh had a pretty bad day overall against the Pats and made some late game heroics to put us in a position to steal it. It's not okay to say the loss "wasn't his fault" because he had a game-winning drive against a tomato-can team that was debating firing their 6 time Super Bowl winning HC lmao.

But your point was “Josh has 3 bad losses, Mahomes only has 2”.
 

Did you not watch Mahomes against Jacksonville, Denver a few weeks back and the jets?

 

He was bad in all 3 games…

 

I think Josh deserves his criticism. Especially the jets loss.

 

My point is EVERY single great QB has bad losses this year. Some get bailed out by their defence more than others and measuring QB success purely on W/L is silly IMO

Edited October 30, 2023 by BillsFan130

[FireChans]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

For one sec recognize how high the bar is when 66% comp for 265 3total TDs and 1 pick is a 'pretty bad day overall'

10 points in 55 minutes is a bad day. The 2 TD's were the late game heroics.

 

Oh, what's also hilarious is that the defense forced a clutch TO to even GIVE Josh the chance to take the lead.   Without the Poyer punch, Josh may have never touched the ball again. 

 

That damn defense letting Josh down lmao.

2 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

But your point was “Josh has 3 bad losses, Mahomes only has 2”.
 

Did you not watch Mahomes against Jacksonville, Denver a few weeks back and the jets?

 

He was bad in all 3 games…

 

I think Josh deserves his criticism. Especially the jets loss.

 

My point is EVERY single great QB has bad losses this year. Some get bailed out by their defence more than others and measuring QB success purely on W/L is silly IMO

My point was that the MVP award is a combination of wins and stats. If you have more losses (ie less wins), your chance to win the award goes down.

[HappyDays]

10 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Do you honestly believe they were equal performances?

 

Yes, I do. I watched both of them in full from start to finish. Mahomes had a bad INT turned over by a questionable penalty. His fumble was recovered by the offense. I don't expect MVP voters to pay attention to chance outcomes like that. But if we're talking objectively I thought that both Allen and Mahomes made bad decisions that could/should have put their teams in position to lose the game, as well as several amazing plays that gave their teams a chance to win. I feel that other circumstances ultimately determined those outcomes more than any difference in the QB play.

 

How about the fact that in Allen's divisional road loss to an inferior team he at least put his team in position to win? Mahomes never really gave his team a chance and that first INT he threw was easily just as bad as Allen's against the Pats. Again, even though the outcomes were the same, I can easily say Allen played better at the end. But MVP voters won't care.

 

Edited October 30, 2023 by HappyDays

[BillsFan130]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

10 points in 55 minutes is a bad day. The 2 TD's were the late game heroics.

 

Oh, what's also hilarious is that the defense forced a clutch TO to even GIVE Josh the chance to take the lead.   Without the Poyer punch, Josh may have never touched the ball again. 

 

That damn defense letting Josh down lmao.

My point was that the MVP award is a combination of wins and stats. If you have more losses (ie less wins), your chance to win the award goes down.

Ok I will agree on that in terms of the MVP race.

 

My point is Josh is still performing at an elite level as a whole.

 

He leads the nfl in yards and TDS lol and I think even completion percentage 

 

Do we wish there are a few less turnovers? Sure

 

But We are truly spoiled if we are bickering about Josh Allen lol

[GoBills808]

Legitimately do not get the people who have such a hard on for Allen but go off I guess😂😂

 

 

[HappyDays]

Joe Marino made a good point on the latest Locked On Bills podcast. Allen has had terrible interception luck this year. Every play that could have been intercepted has been, and a couple that shouldn't have been intercepted were. None of his interception chances have been dropped or overturned by penalty (EDIT: I just remembered he had one overturned by penalty in the Raiders game, but I believe that's all). He pointed out that Allen's turnover worthy play percentage as measured by PFF is actually LOWER than his true INT%... as far as I know this is unprecedented bad turnover luck.

 

There's an easy argument to be made that Allen is in the middle of the best season of his career if you're evaluating his own play in a vacuum.

 

Edited October 30, 2023 by HappyDays

[Aussie Joe]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Joe Marino made a good point on the latest Locked On Bills podcast. Allen has had terrible interception luck this year. Every play that could have been intercepted has been, and a couple that shouldn't have been intercepted were. None of his interception chances have been dropped or overturned by penalty (EDIT: I just remembered he had one overturned by penalty in the Raiders game, but I believe that's all). He pointed out that Allen's turnover worthy play percentage as measured by PFF is actually LOWER than his true INT%... as far as I know this is unprecedented bad turnover luck.

 

There's an easy argument to be made that Allen is in the middle of the best season of his career if you're evaluating his own play in a vacuum.

 

It’s ok to say he makes a bad decision every once in a while and still acknowledge that he is the only chance they have to take them to the promised land 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

58 minutes ago, RiotAct said:

I think you can definitely make a case for Tyreek Hill right now.

 

He is the real MVP of Miami for sure. Not sure the league/voters want to give the MVP to a guy like Hill though.

 

It could shape into a year where we get our first non- QB MVP since AP won it back in 2011. If it goes that route again I think McCaffery would be the choice. 

 

Right now, it feels like there are so many QB's that are in it. More than I can recall in recent memory. One thing that definitely helps Allen's argument over Mahomes after today is that Mahomes had zero TD's he came into the day 7 TDs behind Allen and didn't make up any ground. 

[FireChans]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Yes, I do. I watched both of them in full from start to finish. Mahomes had a bad INT turned over by a questionable penalty. His fumble was recovered by the offense. I don't expect MVP voters to pay attention to coin flips like that. But if we're talking objectively I thought that both Allen and Mahomes made bad decisions that could/should have put their teams in position to lose the game, as well as several amazing plays that gave their teams a chance to win. I feel that other circumstances ultimately determined those outcomes more than any difference in the QB play.

 

How about the fact that in Allen's divisional road loss to an inferior team he at least put his team in position to win? Mahomes never really gave his team a chance and that first INT he threw was easily just as bad as Allen's against the Pats. Again, even though the outcomes were the same, I can easily say Allen played better at the end. But MVP voters won't care.

Sorry, I simply cannot agree. I watched both games as well.

 

Mahomes also was penalized for a complete farcical "safety" penalty from a facemask on the 1 yard line. Which is a change of possession and two points on the board for the opponents.

 

Ya'll wanna talk about "putting team in a position to win." Let's do that.

 

QB1 gets the ball 13-13, 4 minutes in the fourth. TO on the first play. Opposing team immediately gets points.

 

QB2 gets the ball 23-20, 7 minutes in the fourth. Offense gets TWO holding penalties on the drive. They also benefited by two defensive penalties. QB2 orchestrates a drive with a combination of scrambles and passing (his RBs on this drive had a total of 13 yards on 9 carries) and ices the game.

 

Woah, looks like one of the players came up clutch and put their team in a position to win. I wonder who was who lmao.

 

8 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Ok I will agree on that in terms of the MVP race.

 

My point is Josh is still performing at an elite level as a whole.

 

He leads the nfl in yards and TDS lol and I think even completion percentage 

 

Do we wish there are a few less turnovers? Sure

 

But We are truly spoiled if we are bickering about Josh Allen lol

For sure, like I said, he's obviously awesome. But that's why MVP is so tough to win. You have to get lucky/have a good enough team to bail you out, or play at such a high level you basically bail out your team anytime the going gets tough.

 

For example, Mahomes' first MVP season, his defense was 24th in points and 31st in yards. It was a shoot out nearly every week.

 

Now that kind of season should not ever be the expectation, even for the great QBs.  But if you want to be the near-unanimous MVP, that kind of performance over a season is how you get it.

[GoBills808]

Just now, Aussie Joe said:

It’s ok to say he makes a bad decision every once in a while and still acknowledge that he is the only chance they have to take them to the promised land 

Every QB makes bad decisions every once in a while 

 

None of them score touchdowns like Allen

[BillsFan130]

Just now, FireChans said:

Sorry, I simply cannot agree. I watched both games as well.

 

Mahomes also was penalized for a complete farcical "safety" penalty from a facemask on the 1 yard line. Which is a change of possession and two points on the board for the opponents.

 

Ya'll wanna talk about "putting team in a position to win." Let's do that.

 

QB1 gets the ball 13-13, 4 minutes in the fourth. TO on the first play. Opposing team immediately gets points.

 

QB2 gets the ball 23-20, 7 minutes in the fourth. Offense gets TWO holding penalties on the drive. They also benefited by two defensive penalties. QB2 orchestrates a drive with a combination of scrambles and passing (his RBs on this drive had a total of 13 yards on 9 carries) and ices the game.

 

Woah, looks like one of the players came up clutch and put their team in a position to win. I wonder who was who lmao.

 

For sure, like I said, he's obviously awesome. But that's why MVP is so tough to win. You have to get lucky/have a good enough team to bail you out, or play at such a high level you basically bail out your team anytime the going gets tough.

 

For example, Mahomes' first MVP season, his defense was 24th in points and 31st in yards. It was a shoot out nearly every week.

 

Now that kind of season should not ever be the expectation, even for the great QBs.  But if you want to be the near-unanimous MVP, that kind of performance over a season is how you get it.

Ok we if are talking MVP then you’re probably right.

 

I honestly don’t care much about MVP.

 

I thought we were just comparing Josh against other elite QBs. (Non MVP related)

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

Every QB makes bad decisions every once in a while 

 

None of them score touchdowns like Allen

sorry … are you agreeing with me or not? 
 

[GoBills808]

Just now, Aussie Joe said:

sorry … are you agreeing with me or not? 
 

I don't even know anymore

[Toyo321]

44 minutes ago, HurlyBurly51 said:

Be interesting to see if we bring anyone in at the deadline to help on D.

 

1 minute ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We got to...at least a decent DT at the very least...

Who are we going to give up as trade bait.  Elam and picks.  We don't have any serious cap money I think we are at $5 mill or less right now.  I just don't know who we can get that will make an immediate impact, for this game.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

If our defense had simply stopped Mac Jones in a 2 minute drill Allen would probably be the MVP favorite right now. Which shows you how pointless the award really is. But ultimately it is still likely to be the QB of the #1 seed in either conference, like it usually is.

 

Part of me wonders if we'll finally get a non-QB MVP this year? McCaffrey? Hill? No one QB is clearly dominating the competition.

 

 

It is absolutely shaping up into a possible McCaffery MVP year.

 

I think the Bills at minimum probably have to win the division for Allen to win the MVP. But yes, the last 10 MVP winners have all been QB's of one of the teams that finished with the one seed in their conference so just winning the division might not be good enough. I'm not sure I see Mahomes getting the MVP this year even if they have the one seed. Everyone is making a big deal about how great the Chiefs defense is this year so that should hurt Mahomes chances a bit. And this looks like a year where he will be well behind in some of the more touted QB stats like TD's, yards and completion percentage. And his INT's are up. 

 

If the Ravens could somehow finish with the one seed Lamar probably has a great chance. Same for the Tua and the Dolphins as well probably since I don't see the voters giving Hill the credit he deserves in Miami.