2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

[Matt_In_NH]

5 hours ago, BananaB said:

Watching highlights Purdue had 2 Tds where WR/RB never had a player within 15 yards of him. Must be nice

Christian McCaffery had like 25% of the field all by himself....that was incredble.  Is that Shanahan or just incompetence on the other side?

[UKBillFan]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

This is getting really confusing for me.

 

How in the world does anyone honestly think that Lamar, Tua, or Mahomes deserve Pro Bowl for the AFC over Josh?  I say deserve, because we all know that the Pro Bowl is just a popularity contest, but if you're just looking at these players and their stats and what they've done for their teams in a vacuum, it's not even close.

 

Josh no longer leads the NFL in total yards, but he's 50 yards behind Mahomes, who does.  I accounted for sack yardage there, too, since sack yardage is usually accounted for in the passing game. Lamar is way behind Josh, Tua and Mahomes... like almost 200 yards behind Josh.

 

Josh has 12 more TDs than Mahomes and Tua and 15 more TDs than Lamar.

 

Mahomes and Tua only have 2 fewer turnovers than Josh and Lamar only has 4 fewer.

 

I think of all QBs in the NFL, Josh would (or should) be 2nd in NFL MVP voting behind only Purdy, and I still think Purdy gets dinged with the roster he's playing on and the MVP candidate he's playing with.

 

But I'm seriously so confused especially at the Lamar love this year.  He's been average at best when compared with all these other QBs.

 

 

 

I'd agree but I think Pro-Bowl and, as an extension MVP, is voted more on how teams do than individual players. If Josh has three games of four TDs and no INTs/fumbles but the defense give up 30+ and the Bills go 0-3, Josh won't have a chance, no matter what his personal record is.

[BananaB]

50 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

Christian McCaffery had like 25% of the field all by himself....that was incredble.  Is that Shanahan or just incompetence on the other side?

He fell catching the pass, got up and jogged into the endzone.  Not sure who got the other TD but it’s was almost as bad. 
 

I haven’t watched as football as I usually do and only really started watching highlights the past couple weeks as the playoff hunt started to heat up. The other week I saw Deeboo  taking a screen turning it into a long TD. Maybe twice in one game. Then I seen him get a deep ball where he was 5 yards ahead of defender when he caught the ball. Seems everybody around Purdy makes his job easy

Edited December 18, 2023 by BananaB

[LeGOATski]

Dak doesn't deserve to be in the MVP race. Neither does Brock Purdy. These guys aren't even the MVPs of their own team.

24 minutes ago, BananaB said:

He fell catching the pass, got up and jogged into the endzone.  Not sure who got the other TD but it’s was almost as bad. 
 

I haven’t watched as football as I usually do and only really started watching highlights the past couple weeks as the playoff hunt started to heat up. The other week I saw Deeboo  taking a screen turning it into a long TD. Maybe twice in one game. Then I seen him get a deep ball where he was 5 yards ahead of defender when he caught the ball. Seems everybody around Purdy makes his job easy

Shanahan has a history of making mediocre QBs look amazing. Remember when everyone thought Nick Mullens was the league's newest franchise....

 

Purdy is JAG

[VW82]

6 hours ago, dma0034 said:

I see Allen getting more chatter if the Bills win out than Tua. Allen could win if CMC/Purdy and Hill/Tua take some votes from each other

 

 

Allen is going to have like 47/48 Total TDs

 

I think Josh has basically zero chance. He's going to lead the league in turnovers and we're in all likelihood going to sneak in as a 7th seed. 

 

But more to the point, Josh doesn't deserve MVP. Like it or not, his hand-picked OC got fired mid-season. Our signature win of the year (Dallas) happened because of our run game and defense. Meanwhile, Josh has had some high profile bad games/plays.

 

He might be a top 5 player in the league this year, but I don't think MVP is very realistic.

[UKBillFan]

10 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

I think Josh has basically zero chance. He's going to lead the league in turnovers and we're in all likelihood going to sneak in as a 7th seed. 

 

But more to the point, Josh doesn't deserve MVP. Like it or not, his hand-picked OC got fired mid-season. Our signature win of the year (Dallas) happened because of our run game and defense. Meanwhile, Josh has had some high profile bad games/plays.

 

He might be a top 5 player in the league this year, but I don't think MVP is very realistic.

Josh has the ability to push himself into MVP contention. Whether that’s right for him or the Bills is another thing altogether. As you say, yesterday did him no favours at all although he did nothing wrong.

[BananaB]

7 minutes ago, VW82 said:

 

I think Josh has basically zero chance. He's going to lead the league in turnovers and we're in all likelihood going to sneak in as a 7th seed. 

 

But more to the point, Josh doesn't deserve MVP. Like it or not, his hand-picked OC got fired mid-season. Our signature win of the year (Dallas) happened because of our run game and defense. Meanwhile, Josh has had some high profile bad games/plays.

 

He might be a top 5 player in the league this year, but I don't think MVP is very realistic.

I think Josh has weird situation that will get overlooked because of record and turnovers . He leads the league in TDs, had numerous games where he put the team ahead in the last 2 minutes but our D never held up. Something you’d look for in an MvP type season. Oddly he did all this with an OC being fired mid season, what other mvp candidate had to deal with that? To see Allen at the top of anything is pretty telling about how important he is to this team. 
 

Personally I think Tyreek is the clear cut MVP of the league. I ***** hate the guy with a passion but his effect on games are unreal

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, VW82 said:

 

But more to the point, Josh doesn't deserve MVP. Like it or not, his hand-picked OC got fired mid-season. Our signature win of the year (Dallas) happened because of our run game and defense.

 

hand picked OC? lol. As if it is somehow crazy that the Bills promoted within when they elevated Dorsey from QB coach to OC. 
 

Our signature win of the year is still the 28 point blowout of the Dolphins. A game in which Allen was flawless.  

1 hour ago, UKBillFan said:

As you say, yesterday did him no favours at all although he did nothing wrong.

Disagree on that point. The thing that Allen needs more than anything right now is W’s. Check. Second thing he needs is no turnovers. Check. 
 

As a bonus he was able to add two TD’s and may need up being the only QB to total 40+ TD’s this year. 
 

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Can Allen still win it...maybe.  

 

For Allen to win it several things need to happen:

1. Bills win out
2. No bad turnovers or costly turnovers, preferably none at all
3. We win division
4. Niners lose 1 game
5. Ravens lose 1 game

I don't think Allen can win it without at least 4 of those things happening, or even all 5.  Plus Allen is gonna have be a bigger part of our next 3 games than what he was against Cowboys.

 

Ravens vs Niners next week, so one of them will lose for sure...but also the team winning that game is gonna boost up their respective MVP candidates further.  

 

Ravens still have Miami the week after and Pitt, so if they beat Niners they could still lose to one of the others.  Niners have Commanders and Rams after the Ravens game.  Rams are dangerous, so if they beat Ravens, its possible they could still lose to Rams week 18.  

 

But I can't see Allen winning it unless BOTH those guys each lose a game, mainly because the winner of their head to head next week is gonna really prop up the MVP candidate(s) on that team.  So that winning team needs to lose to someone else after given that the top 3 right now are Purdy, Lamar, and CMC.  

 

Josh needs to handle his business, and then he needs some help.  Just handling his business prob wont be enough to overtake one of the other guys ahead if they continue to handle their own business.

 

Personally, as of right now it should be Purdy and I don't care if Allen does or doesn't win it...just win out, and hit they playoffs rolling as the scariest team in the AFC, and maybe the 2nd scariest outside of the Niners in the whole NFL.  

I think Ravens would need to beat the 49ers, first.  This will bump Lamar up in the conversation.  Miami also needs to lose to Dallas, but then beat Baltimore.  This will knock Lamar back down but bring Tua and Hill back up.  Then, Bills knock off Miami behind Josh, to give the Bills the division.  Might need the 49ers to lose another game beyond just Ravens, to keep Purdy and CMAC clear of the conversation.

[mrags]

Well. After this weekend it’s looking like Dak and Hurts should be out of the picture. Tua looked good without Hill so that should bump Hill down a notch. If anything it builds up Tua a bit more. And the argument for Purdy and CMC is so strange. Don’t even know who the mvp of that team is. How can they be the mvp of the league if they can’t distance themselves on their own team? Purdy is just a guy. CMC is great but he would need to finish with over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and he’ll need 25+ TDS to do that. Not sure that’s happening. 

[Punch]

2 minutes ago, mrags said:

Well. After this weekend it’s looking like Dak and Hurts should be out of the picture. Tua looked good without Hill so that should bump Hill down a notch. If anything it builds up Tua a bit more. And the argument for Purdy and CMC is so strange. Don’t even know who the mvp of that team is. How can they be the mvp of the league if they can’t distance themselves on their own team? Purdy is just a guy. CMC is great but he would need to finish with over 2,000 yards from scrimmage and he’ll need 25+ TDS to do that. Not sure that’s happening. 

IMHO: As great as McCaffrey is, their record is likely very similar with Elijah Michell or even Jordan Mason (or Mostert if they kept him) at RB. Maybe they'd rely more heavily on Deebo out of the backfield.

 

They'd probably lose a few more games with Garroppolo at QB for the full season.

[CincyBillsFan]

4 hours ago, VW82 said:

 

But more to the point, Josh doesn't deserve MVP. Like it or not, his hand-picked OC got fired mid-season. Our signature win of the year (Dallas) happened because of our run game and defense. Meanwhile, Josh has had some high profile bad games/plays.

 

Allen did not hand pick Dorsey to be the OC.  At most he gave the thumbs up to the PROMOTION from within.  Everything we've heard over the last month swirling around the McD controversy is that McD was the guy who most likely pushed for Dorsey to be promoted.  He saw it as a chance to better coordinate his idea of the offense/defense playing complimentary football.

 

And the Bills win's over Miami & KC were also signature wins.

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, VW82 said:

 

I think Josh has basically zero chance. He's going to lead the league in turnovers and we're in all likelihood going to sneak in as a 7th seed. 

 

But more to the point, Josh doesn't deserve MVP. Like it or not, his hand-picked OC got fired mid-season. Our signature win of the year (Dallas) happened because of our run game and defense. Meanwhile, Josh has had some high profile bad games/plays.

 

He might be a top 5 player in the league this year, but I don't think MVP is very realistic.

 

Nope.

 

At this point I would bet you money Allen won't lead the league in turnovers.

 

He's no longer alone at the top, anyway.

 

Allen has 17 turnovers.

 

Sam Howell has 17 turnovers.

 

Recent MVP frontrunner Jalen Hurts has 17 turnovers.

 

Allen has 11 TDs and 3 interceptions since Brady took over. 

 

Mahomes will probably have more turnovers by the end of the year than Allen.

[Saxum]

13 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

 

If it's like last year, the voting for pro bowl opened around 14th November, just after the Bills lost to the Broncos and Josh saw his OC sacked. Now, some would have held back their votes until nearer the closure date, which is probably some time this week. If they didn't then I think Tua, Jackson and Mahomes will get the votes, along with the press hype surrounding Stroud (which, IMO, is more down to the presence of Dell but that's bye the bye).

 

Admittedly, due to the early voting window for Pro-Bowl, it doesn't necessarily impact MVP. If Josh sees this through with clutch performances over the next three weeks then he'll be up there.

 

Yesterday was clutch but not in a traditional Josh way. It was mature and controlled - just what the Bills needed.

 

It is not even Pro-Bowl,  It is Pro-Games.  Even name is weird - Camping World Stadium. The ads are real odd. I am sure Josh would rather be playing golf.

[SoonerBillsFan]

6 hours ago, VW82 said:

 

I think Josh has basically zero chance. He's going to lead the league in turnovers and we're in all likelihood going to sneak in as a 7th seed. 

 

But more to the point, Josh doesn't deserve MVP. Like it or not, his hand-picked OC got fired mid-season. Our signature win of the year (Dallas) happened because of our run game and defense. Meanwhile, Josh has had some high profile bad games/plays.

 

He might be a top 5 player in the league this year, but I don't think MVP is very realistic.

I'm with you in the media does nothing but harp on his turnovers and it's all but killed the mvp talk.

 

 

[Scott7975]

13 hours ago, DapperCam said:

They do ranked choice voting now, so I think the teammates stealing votes thing won't have as much of an effect.

 

What does "ranked  choice voting" mean?  I have never heard that term. I feel stupid asking because it's probably obvious.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Current Odds as of this morning. Odd via Bovada.

 

Purdy -200

Jackson +450

Prescott +750

Allen +850

McCaffery +1000

Hurts +1800

 

Allen has had a meteoric rise two straight weeks from +5500 down to +2200 down to +850. Had the Eagles game gone the Bills way he would probably be right there with Jackson at +450.

 

With Purdy and Jackson going head-to-head this week it could really give one of them a boost while possibly dropping the other down to third behind Allen. Assuming both Bills and Cowboys win this week, I see Allen leapfrogging Dak. The number one thing Allen needs right now more than TD's, yards, less turnovers, is just wins. Just keep stacking wins. Any loss would be the nail in the coffin for his MVP chances. 

 

As shocking as it sounds, I could see the loser of the Purdy/Jackson match up falling into a virtual tie with Allen. Yes, Purdy could stumble from -200 favorite to around +500 with Allen with a single loss. A Purdy loss would be huge in really opening the conversation up for all of the top 4 or 5. And because of Jackson's weak statistical output the door would remain open for guys like Dak, Allen and Purdy to capture the award before seasons end. 

 

 

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I'm with you in the media does nothing but harp on his turnovers and it's all but killed the mvp talk.

 

 

 

What the media loves more than anything is a winner. For most of the season the Bills have not been winners. We get a tiny two game winning streak going and suddenly we have seen Allen's MVP odds increase dramatically. Don't underestimate what a lasting impression it will be on voters if the Bills win out and Allen leads the Bills to the division title against Tua and Hill down in Miami. In a game that will more than likely be primetime for all to see. 

 

 

[DapperCam]

6 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

What does "ranked  choice voting" mean?  I have never heard that term. I feel stupid asking because it's probably obvious.

Before the voters used to just pick one person they wanted to win. So you could get a situation where some voted for Purdy, while others voted for CMC. That would split the vote, and possibly allow a third candidate (Josh Allen, wooo!) to win.

Now the voters pick their top 5 MVPs ranked in order, and they get points based on where they ranked them. 5 points for ranking first, 4 points for ranking second and so on. The player with the most points gets MVP.

So a voter could put Purdy #1 and CMC #2, and another voter could put CMC #1 and Purdy #2 and it's likely one of them would still win if enough people voted like that.

Some people think that is how all elections should work, because it would allow third party candidates or more minor candidates within the party a chance to actually win. If a Democrat didn't like Biden, they could vote for whichever candidate in their party they liked most and wouldn't feel like they were "throwing away" their vote, because they could still rank Biden second or third on their ballot.

 

Edited December 19, 2023 by DapperCam

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

What the media loves more than anything is a winner. For most of the season the Bills have not been winners. We get a tiny two game winning streak going and suddenly we have seen Allen's MVP odds increase dramatically. Don't underestimate what a lasting impression it will be on voters if the Bills win out and Allen leads the Bills to the division title against Tua and Hill down in Miami. In a game that will more than likely be primetime for all to see. 

 

 

For MVP only, he needs to cranking out 10+ passing and 2+ rushing TD's and ZERO turnovers while qe go 3-0.

He does that then anyone buy him as MVP is bull ****