Bills open -4.5 vs Jags. (Now -5.5)

[Since1981]

Any sense of the percent crowd in Blue? Mafia travels well but the family tricksters have trouble running under water (vs I-95)

[harryS]

12 hours ago, Fallser said:

***** bruv, games aren’t even over yet, Vegas needs another day to digest. I’d bet we’re -7.5 by Tuesday.

 

Nah, won't happen.  Just like the Dolphins getting bet to pick'em against the Bills didn't happen.  Generally speaking there aren't these wild swings in the line like many think.

 

You have to give Jax credit for home field in this one, imo.  They're already in England, they already played a game there this week (won comfortably), and they've been there more than any other NFL team the past few years.  The fact that we have to travel across the Atlantic after an emotional blowout win against our hated division rivals, and Jax is just sitting there chilling, waiting for us.... imo, I give Jax the full 1.5 points for home field.

 

And considering CRIS/Bookmaker and BetOnline are at 5.5 and Circa is at 5, then this game is considered Bills -7/-6.5 on a neutral field in America.  That's a very healthy line already and shouldn't go up much more more, if any.  It might even come down if some syndicate decides they're going to weigh HFA even higher than I did.

[Bookie Man]

What's funny is that this is technically a "home game" for Buffalo. Makes no sense. 

[Saxum]

On 10/1/2023 at 6:09 PM, Alpo Chino said:

haha no problem.

 

Vegas oddsmakers create the numbers. 

-4.5 means Bills are 4.5 point favorites. They have to win by 5. 

47.5 is the Over/Under. Total points scored by both teams. 

 

NFL should find a way for a team to get half point just to mess with Vegas but since they are in bed with organized gambling they will never do it now.

1 hour ago, Alpo Chino said:

What's funny is that this is technically a "home game" for Buffalo. Makes no sense. 

 

It is a home game because it has to be a home team the way rules work and it is Buffalo's turn.

[sonyab1974]

On 10/1/2023 at 10:49 PM, sonyab1974 said:

I still want to know why the game next Sunday is at 9:30 am.. Very strange.

OH!!!! I know why the game will be at 9:30 am!!! Because they will be playing in London and it's 5 hours from us!!! 😂

[T master]

So what time do we need to wake up to watch this game 2 am ?? 

[GoBills808]

Rat line 

 

Do not like

[mannc]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Rat line 

 

Do not like

Explain?

[buffaloboyinATL]

15 hours ago, Alpo Chino said:

What's funny is that this is technically a "home game" for Buffalo. Makes no sense. 

Originally, I was thinking that this would be a home game for the Jags, especially because they play there all the time and will have been there for 2 weeks. 
 

But with Josh Allen’s popularity, and how good we are playing right now, I am guessing there will be a lot of “neutral” fans cheering for the Bills in this game. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

Explain?

So they're never going to open the bills anything less than 3pt favorites in this one right

 

imo -4.5 is designed to get everyone taking the cheese on Bills which I don't love 

 

And it's working..but still early in the week so I might feel better in a couple days who knows

 

full disclosure I am at best a break even NFL gambler😂😂I cannot be held responsible for any losses suffered

[eball]

On 10/1/2023 at 6:11 PM, RiotAct said:

we should hopefully have a decent homefield advantage, what with Bills STH’ers having first right of refusal to the tickets.

That place is going to be 75% pro-Bills, if I had to guess. 
 

[billsfan_34]

I loathe having any NFL games outside of CONUS, for so many reasons…the NFL and Khan are stuffing their pockets off this adventure.

[Warcodered]

1 minute ago, eball said:

That place is going to be 75% pro-Bills, if I had to guess. 
 

Is it? Jacksonville plays there an awful lot.

[sullim4]

FWIW I agree, I don't like this line.

 

Home team usually gets spotted 3 points; this being a neutral field game means there is no buffer for that.  But the Jaguars are already there, have adjusted to the time zone, and essentially have that home advantage.  These London games being played at 2pm (9am Eastern) is a bunch of bunk as well - they should be playing them at 6pm in London and sticking them in the 1pm TV window, assigned to CBS or FOX, to make the playing field equal.

 

So this line is more like -7 if Buffalo was playing in Orchard Park.  Especially with how the Jags play the Bills... I don't like our chances against the spread.  I think we win, but I think it's a closer game than most people think.

[eball]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

So they're never going to open the bills anything less than 3pt favorites in this one right

 

imo -4.5 is designed to get everyone taking the cheese on Bills which I don't love 

 

And it's working..but still early in the week so I might feel better in a couple days who knows

 

full disclosure I am at best a break even NFL gambler😂😂I cannot be held responsible for any losses suffered

The best line for oddsmakers is one that attracts equal money on both sides. The sharps try to take advantage of “bad” lines and I think Buffalo -4.5 is just too low. If you think the Bills are going to win you have to think it’s a 7+ game. 
 

[Brand J]

5 minutes ago, sullim4 said:

FWIW I agree, I don't like this line.

 

Home team usually gets spotted 3 points; this being a neutral field game means there is no buffer for that.  But the Jaguars are already there, have adjusted to the time zone, and essentially have that home advantage.  These London games being played at 2pm (9am Eastern) is a bunch of bunk as well - they should be playing them at 6pm in London and sticking them in the 1pm TV window, assigned to CBS or FOX, to make the playing field equal.

 

So this line is more like -7 if Buffalo was playing in Orchard Park.  Especially with how the Jags play the Bills... I don't like our chances against the spread.  I think we win, but I think it's a closer game than most people think.

I vote for a later start as well. Kickoff is at 6:30AM on the west coast. 

[eball]

8 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Is it? Jacksonville plays there an awful lot.

You think the Brits care that they’ve played there? What is exciting about the Jags? The Bills have huge star power and the fans will travel. 
 

[mannc]

14 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

So they're never going to open the bills anything less than 3pt favorites in this one right

 

imo -4.5 is designed to get everyone taking the cheese on Bills which I don't love 

 

And it's working..but still early in the week so I might feel better in a couple days who knows

 

full disclosure I am at best a break even NFL gambler😂😂I cannot be held responsible for any losses suffered

But now it's Bills -5.5, so a lot of folks did jump on the Bills.  To me, the initial line of -4.5 did look too low, so much so that it looked fishy.  I think the travel/time zone changes are a real wildcard here and that if this was truly a neutral field situation, the Bills would be giving 6.5 or more...       

[Pete]

On 10/1/2023 at 10:26 PM, Royale with Cheese said:

I’m honestly surprised we aren’t favored by 7.  

It’s only Tuesday

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

But now it's Bills -5.5, so a lot of folks did jump on the Bills.  To me, the initial line of -4.5 did look too low, so much so that it looked fishy.  I think the travel/time zone changes are a real wildcard here and that if this was truly a neutral field situation, the Bills would be giving 6.5 or more...       

Exactly