DVOA: Bills #1 vs Dolphins #2

[Mikie2times]

 

Found this interesting for those who used to enjoy Football Outsiders (the site is dead). Aaron Schatz is now a writer for this site and he brought the popular DVOA ranking system with him. As many of you who follow DVOA know Buffalo is usually ranked very high. We once again come in #1 on the year with the dorsal fins #2. Schatz wrote a nice article on how the 1 vs 2 DVOA matchup is a very unlikely event.

 

https://www.ftnfantasy.com/articles/FTN/105448/history-of-the-dvoa-bowl

 

 

[Charles Romes]

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/ranking/predictive-by-other/
 

Teamrankings.com has had the Bills number 1 for pretty much 4 straight years, even through the 11-6 year. No one blows out decent teams with nearly the regulatory. 

[78thealltimegreat]

The Bills have always scored very well in DVOA as over the last 4 years or so think only the Chiefs have actually won more games so understandable.

 

Kinda surprised by the Browns being that high as they really don’t have much of an offense if Watson didn’t look awful at times they might legitimately have something brewing. 

 

[GunnerBill]

I think the caveat with DVOA is normally you gotta wait 6 weeks or so until schedules begin evening out before putting too much stock in it.

 

Not that the Bills being #1 is bad. 

[Einstein]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I think the caveat with DVOA is normally you gotta wait 6 weeks or so until schedules begin evening out before putting too much stock in it.

 

Not that the Bills being #1 is bad. 

 

Correct.

DVOA doesn’t even adjust for opponents until after Week 4.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Correct.

DVOA doesn’t even adjust for opponents until after Week 4.

 

I couldn't remember the exact terms. Thanks.

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

Correct.

DVOA doesn’t even adjust for opponents until after Week 4.

But DVOA literally stands for defense adjusted value over average😂😂

[Big Turk]

13 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/ranking/predictive-by-other/
 

Teamrankings.com has had the Bills number 1 for pretty much 4 straight years, even through the 11-6 year. No one blows out decent teams with nearly the regulatory. 

 

Bills also lead the NFL with 30+ points scored 27 times over the last 4 seasons.  

[Einstein]

6 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

But DVOA literally stands for defense adjusted value over average😂😂

 

Yes...

[Franco_92]

6 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

But DVOA literally stands for defense adjusted value over average😂😂

You need to get a real sample size for anything to mean anything. It's a bit silly to use metrics this early in the season, but it's fun to do, but it's probably correct to go off of last year's version of an opponent until this year's version is better understood, nothing crazy going on there 

[Shaw66]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I think the caveat with DVOA is normally you gotta wait 6 weeks or so until schedules begin evening out before putting too much stock in it.

 

Not that the Bills being #1 is bad. 

This correct.  At this point in the season, DVOA represents how the team did last season, with some subjective adjustments.  

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

At this point in the season, DVOA represents how the team did last season

Just FYI - DVOA never considers the previous season. They use DAVE Metrics prior to week 5 stats. As Gunner said, DVOA is not representative of a true league wide metric until week 6 at least as DVOA considers 50% of DAVE even at midseason and does not stop using DAVE until after week 13.