Stats, PFF grades, Thoughts on Offense, and Miami coming up

[EmotionallyUnstable]

4 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

If you re-watch the Davis TD from Sunday, Kincaid is running a parallel route with him stride for stride.

Right. About 5 yards apart the whole way. I know you were highlighting his speed there but I’m assuming Kincaid was too deep on that route.

[ndirish1978]

12 hours ago, Warcodered said:

Why when Josh was behind in the Jets game he drove it down with little time left to get in position for the FG to tie the game and send it to OT. Started off behind the Raiders and then raced past them.

 

IMO most of his poor decisions are made when he's trying so hard to make a play because we're behind. We never should have been in the position to have to get a FG to tie the Jets game, he lost us that game and it shouldn't have even been close. There a dumb thing that happens on this board (not talking about you specifically) but I think we should be able to express concerns or doubts about our players without being accused of not being a fan. I'm not saying he sucks, I think he's great - I just worry about his decision-making mainly because I thought he was getting past this shaky part of his game and it's still rearing it's head.  

[Warcodered]

34 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

IMO most of his poor decisions are made when he's trying so hard to make a play because we're behind. We never should have been in the position to have to get a FG to tie the Jets game, he lost us that game and it shouldn't have even been close. There a dumb thing that happens on this board (not talking about you specifically) but I think we should be able to express concerns or doubts about our players without being accused of not being a fan. I'm not saying he sucks, I think he's great - I just worry about his decision-making mainly because I thought he was getting past this shaky part of his game and it's still rearing it's head.  

All of his turnovers in the Jets game were when we had the lead.

[Big Blitz]

 

[GreggTX]

I don't care about scoring a lot of points if we're chewing up the clock and ending drives with 6 points. We need to hit Tua a lot and force turnovers.

[Billy Claude]

On 9/27/2023 at 12:31 AM, ndirish1978 said:

 

IMO most of his poor decisions are made when he's trying so hard to make a play because we're behind. We never should have been in the position to have to get a FG to tie the Jets game, he lost us that game and it shouldn't have even been close. There a dumb thing that happens on this board (not talking about you specifically) but I think we should be able to express concerns or doubts about our players without being accused of not being a fan. I'm not saying he sucks, I think he's great - I just worry about his decision-making mainly because I thought he was getting past this shaky part of his game and it's still rearing it's head.  

 

On 9/27/2023 at 1:06 AM, Warcodered said:

All of his turnovers in the Jets game were when we had the lead.

 

 

This narrative keeps being repeated  but it is simply not even close to true that Allen's turnovers was  because the Bills were behind.  This is not only the case for this season's Jets game but in general.

 

Out of Allen's 19 2022 regular season turnovers, 12 of them were with the Bill's leading and 4 were with the Bills tied .  All Allen's turnovers when tied occurred in the first half of the games.

 

Only three of Allen's 2022 turnovers occurred with the Bills trailing:

 

(1) An interception down 0-7 in the first half against Chicago.

(2) A fumble on first down trailing 21-26 at midfield at the beginning of the 4th quarter in the 2nd game against the Dolphins.   Plenty of time left to make up 5 points and in fact the Bills eventually win this game.

(3) An interception ending OT down 3 against the Vikings -- this is the only one that meets the criteria for a do or die situation.

 

When McDermott keeps saying Allen has to play smarter, it isn't only about sliding at the end of runs.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by Billy Claude

[Einstein]

13 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

 

That graph makes little sense. How does one have negative seperation? And why are the worst performing CB’s to the axis of the negative separation?

Is 0 the mean and separation is plotted at either less than or greater than the mean?

[PBF81]

On 9/25/2023 at 1:03 PM, Einstein said:

People hate calling an early season game a “must win” and I understand why. But this Miami game is, without a doubt, a very important early season game. If Miami wins, they go to 4-0 and we fall to 2-2. Miami’s next two opponents are 1-5 combined: the Giants (1-2) and Panthers (0-3). Any given Sunday, but in all likelihood, they would be 6-0. We need to hand them a loss.

 

That's the biggest thing for me.  Both O and D are going to have to show up and this is a classic game that will also highlight coaching.  

 

Lose and we'd be 0-2 in the division and 1-2 conference, making it an uphill battle to win the division.  

 

Also, we'd be 0-1 vs. the only team that we'll have played that's likely to post a winning record or make the playoffs.  

 

 

[appoo]

On 9/26/2023 at 3:28 PM, Bangarang said:

We averaged less yards per play on 1st downs against the Raiders than we did the Commanders. 
 

We are just not good on 1st down as an offense so far. We’re currently 28th in the league in yards per play on 1st down. 

 

 

Good point. My prior for this OLine was that it was at best an average OLine. Nothing that's happened so far has moved me off that

15 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

This chart doesn't make any sense to me

[ndirish1978]

9 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

 

 

 

This narrative keeps being repeated  but it is simply not even close to true that Allen's turnovers was  because the Bills were behind.  This is not only the case for this season's Jets game but in general.

 

Out of Allen's 19 2022 regular season turnovers, 12 of them were with the Bill's leading and 4 were with the Bills tied .  All Allen's turnovers when tied occurred in the first half of the games.

 

Only three of Allen's 2022 turnovers occurred with the Bills trailing:

 

(1) An interception down 0-7 in the first half against Chicago.

(2) A fumble on first down trailing 21-26 at midfield at the beginning of the 4th quarter in the 2nd game against the Dolphins.   Plenty of time left to make up 5 points and in fact the Bills eventually win this game.

(3) An interception ending OT down 3 against the Vikings -- this is the only one that meets the criteria for a do or die situation.

 

When McDermott keeps saying Allen has to play smarter, it isn't only about sliding at the end of runs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

It appears I am wrong. Thanks for the info! 

[Billy Claude]

4 hours ago, ndirish1978 said:

 

It appears I am wrong. Thanks for the info! 

 

I appreciate your willingness to have an open mind.    Its not very common on the internet.

[Xwnyer]

On 9/25/2023 at 1:03 PM, Einstein said:

• Don’t let the incredible play of the defense distract you from the fact that this was not the best game for the offense. The starting offense scored 24 points, which feels low considering the defense forced 5 turnovers and continuously gave the offense the ball. The starting offense's last three series were Interception, Turnover on Downs, Touchdown. They ended the day with 322 yards and 5.9 yards per play. To put this into perspective, the Broncos put up 399 yards and 6.4 yards per play against Washington. The offense will have to be better against Miami. On first down, we ran 7 plays that resulted in 1 yard or less, 9 plays that resulted in 2 yards or less, and 2 plays that resulted in negative yards.

 

• I feel confident writing that Bernard is a good Middle Linebacker. No qualifiers needed. No comments such as "he is good enough" or "better than expected". He is a good player. Period. He is good defending the pass and he is good at defending the run. He FLIES through gaps on run downs and is very physical for a player of his size. And we have seen his athleticism on back-to-back game interceptions. He is just plain good.

 

• Torrence had the highest pass blocking grade against the Commanders. Brown had the worst. Dawkins had the highest run blocking grade. Torrence had the worst (PFF graded him abysmally in run blocking).

 

• The Bills have the lowest blitz % in the NFL. As I mentioned in the offseason, I do not think this defense will be called much different than Frazier did. I'm sure we have all seen some differences, but it is remarkably similar to Frazier's defense.

 

• People hate calling an early season game a “must win” and I understand why. But this Miami game is, without a doubt, a very important early season game. If Miami wins, they go to 4-0 and we fall to 2-2. Miami’s next two opponents are 1-5 combined: the Giants (1-2) and Panthers (0-3). Any given Sunday, but in all likelihood, they would be 6-0. We need to hand them a loss.

 

• Kaiir Elam has done well against the Dolphins. He had an 88 coverage grade against them in the playoffs, and a season average of 75 against the Dolphins. That is the highest grade of all our cornerbacks against the Dolphins last season. By a lot.

 

• It’s a long season, but as of now, Harty seems like a miss. Beane signed him to a 2 year, $9.5M contract, which I thought indicated that we planned to use him heavily. We did draft Kincaid too, but even when Kincaid is not on the field, Harty has no real role.

 

• NextGenStats records player speed in every game. The 5 fastest times this season are ALL Miami Dolphins. Every. Single. Spot is taken by a Dolphin. Hill, Mostert and Achane have all reached speeds of 21MPH with Hill reaching 22MPH. Miami trading for Hill was such a great move. You can’t teach speed. I was hoping the trade would blow up in their face but it was honestly worth every pick they gave up and every dollar spent. As Robert Griffin III said yesterday, Hill has something that no other player in the sport has - INSTANT SPEED. This is so incredibly dangerous because he can be open within 1 second, which completely negates the defenses pass rush. Then they team him up with Waddle and turns into “pick your poison”.

 

• Fans can denigrate Tua all they want, but he is an incredibly accurate and quick thrower of the football. He will always have limitations due to size, arm strength, and height, but his incredible accuracy and quick delivery makes him lethal. YardsPerPass noted on film that he will rarely (if ever) throw to the far side boundary - likely due to arm weakness - so smart teams (such as the Patriots) are playing a lot of Cover 3 while clogging the middle of the field and forcing short side throws. The Broncos didn’t get the memo.

 

• 70 points is impressive, but make no mistake, the Broncos gave up in that game. They were also incredibly inept. Look at the carnage in this photo.

 

 

 

Our OC is a genius 

[LABILLBACKER]

On 9/26/2023 at 6:02 AM, colin said:

i haven't seen season stats comparing different teams, but we must be just the worst team on 1st down.  sacks, no yard plays, and only a couple of big ones seem to happen for us on 1st down.

 

im thinking like that one dude said, every single 1st down should be an under center snap, lets us run and run play action out of it.

Right?.....Dorsey's 1st down plays are abysmal....scrub this stupid delayed draw and get JA under center. Use the play action much more.  Then when we get a lead, release the 3 headed RB scheme.

Edited September 29, 2023 by LABILLBACKER

[Gambit]

 

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

On 9/27/2023 at 12:31 AM, ndirish1978 said:

 

IMO most of his poor decisions are made when he's trying so hard to make a play because we're behind. We never should have been in the position to have to get a FG to tie the Jets game, he lost us that game and it shouldn't have even been close. There a dumb thing that happens on this board (not talking about you specifically) but I think we should be able to express concerns or doubts about our players without being accused of not being a fan. I'm not saying he sucks, I think he's great - I just worry about his decision-making mainly because I thought he was getting past this shaky part of his game and it's still rearing it's head.  

1. He has a bad game or two or three a year. It happens to all of them...

2. You are correct people get attacked on here all the time for just pointing out bad play. Has nothing to do with their fandom. The team didn't make the playoffs for 17 years. We're we supposed to day everything was fine? The blatant homers are almost as bad as the trolls.

3.  Allen remains our only hope. Just need to stick with him and hope he peaks at the right time.

[97bills]

On 9/25/2023 at 3:38 PM, BigAl2526 said:

That is Tua's MO anyway.  Buffalo will need to be able to disrupt receivers' route running early and maintain fairly tight coverage if they can.  

I agree with this 💯, if we play a soft zone and let them run free , they will kill us on those crossing routes, there RAC is something special for sure.. I think that was a big mistake we made with KC and CIN , those teams are just to good to give them a free release and then hope you can come up and make the tackle. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 9/25/2023 at 12:02 PM, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

Part of our opponents not being called for penalties is due to game situation. Who's going to call offensive holding on a team that's down by 30 and QB is getting sacked every play ?

Great point. As a first year official that is exactly how they are coaching us up in the youth and high school ranks. I would imagine a tiny bit of that trickles up into the NFL.