Dan Orlovsky on the Bills Offense Yesterday

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

I am not arguing one way or another, but is there any data supporting this? I mean some stats split JA under center vs JA in shotgun.

 

You can find splits on pro-football-reference

For example

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02/splits/2022/

scroll down

[billsfan89]

The Bills offense played complementary to the defense. The offense was mostly conservative as they knew the defense had the Commanders number. They scored on 4 out of 5 drives in the first half building a big two-possession lead. Then to start the second half they got the ball on the one and turned the ball over deep in the Commanders territory effectively chewing up time and shifting field position. Some questionable penalties stalled the drive. 

 

The only time the offense really frustrated me was the inability to get into field goal range on the second drive of the first half. They had a 3rd and 2 and couldn't get two yards on two downs. The rest of the way the Bills offense scored two TD's on their next two possessions even with the second TD coming with backups in due to the defensive score and clock running lower. 

 

Overall the Bills had only had 3 drives that did not end in points or a kneel-down. And of those three drives one started on the one yard line and ended with a shift in field position and chewed up clock for a team up 16. I would have liked it more for the Bills to convert that third and short it was insanely frustrating that they couldn't get Josh behind center and hand it off to Murray twice and just get the yards. 

 

In the end if the offensive line holds up as it has the past couple weeks I think the offense will continue to perform at a high level. 

[Chicken Boo]

Now, I fully expect Dorsey to see this as a slight and do the exact opposite.  

 

Thanks, Dan.

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

I get the point, but no team plays with more than 50% of the snaps under center. Here are the 2022 percentage of shotgun snaps by team. If you notice, the best teams are clustered at the high end, or at least after you remove the teams that have to be almost 100% in shotgun because of a short QB.

 

I'm having a little trouble understanding this chart - I get it's normalizing the data, but find it hard to map onto straight info.

 

Last season the Bills played 1048 offensive snaps.  747 were from shotgun (71%).  301 were under center (29%)

Josh actually had more YPA and better completion % under center (7.9 vs 7.4; 65% vs 62%). but I had thought that was because overwhelmingly, the Bills run from under center (2/3 of under center snaps, they run)
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2022_splits.htm   scroll down

Edited September 25, 2023 by Beck Water

[Sierra Foothills]

4 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

I get the point, but no team plays with more than 50% of the snaps under center. Here are the 2022 percentage of shotgun snaps by team. If you notice, the best teams are clustered at the high end, or at least after you remove the teams that have to be almost 100% in shotgun because of a short QB.

 

Thanks for posting. I'll condense it in a table below.

 

4 hours ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

I have been saying dink and doink teams to death since the emergence of Josh Allen. It's alot more fun to watch the 50 yard bombs but also isn't sustainable, 6 yards here, 8 yards there and then opens you up for the play action pass, this is the offense I've been looking for, for so long now. I don't think there is a team that can beat us if we stick to the game plan each and every week, Brady/Brees were the masters of this and Allen can be too.

 

The counter-argument is that the so-called "Bend but don't Break" Defenses are based on making the offense run many plays to drive the field and score. The idea is that most offenses can't do so for various external or internal reasons. Most experts agree that chunk yardage is a necessary component of an efficient offense. So it's not either/or... it's a healthy balance.

 

3 hours ago, Rubes said:

 

Not to nit-pick, but you can do play-action from the shotgun. So I don't think this represents under center vs. not under center.

 

 

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

I don't think Allen is any better under center than in Shotgun.

 

The key to Allen playing well is play-action. 

But play-action and under center often coincide, and that is where I believe people see the correlation.

 

You guys make the point that some are missing. Thank you.

 

Here's a condensed list:

 

% of Offensive Snaps in Shotgun Formation

Las Vegas (lowest in NFL)	52.44
Detroit	52.50
Dallas	55.86
San Francisco	60.38
League Average	67.49
Green Bay	68.53
Buffalo	73.85
Cincinnati	77.34
Kansas City	78.86
Philadelphia (highest in NFL)	88.73

 

 

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

I'm having a little trouble understanding this chart - I get it's normalizing the data, but find it hard to map onto straight info.

 

Last season the Bills played 1048 offensive snaps.  747 were from shotgun (71%).  301 were under center (29%)

Josh actually had more YPA and better completion % under center (7.9 vs 7.4; 65% vs 62%). but I had thought that was because overwhelmingly, the Bills run from under center (2/3 of under center snaps, they run)

This is just the percentage of snaps from the shotgun. I am not disputing the fact that Josh has been more effective from under center. The point of my post was to refute the demand that the Bills play 70% of their offensive plays from under center by noting that no team in the NFL does that in the 21st century. In fact, the two teams that played in the SB last played two of the highest percentage of their plays from the shotgun. Interesting stat. The Eagles played almost 89% of their snaps from the shotgun but were 3rd in the league in rushing attempts. 

[MasterStrategist]

5 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

Can someone help me out and explain why — in this offense with Josh specifically — Josh is better under center, as Orlovsky says?

 

1. How is protection better? Dan says it calms Josh down a bit.

2. How does Josh read the field better?

3. How do the route running/concepts change and/or improve?

Just trying to understand and specific examples help me. Thanks in advance. 🍻

I think the biggest "pro" of being under center, is run game variety.  Alot more schemes and options are on the table.  Not to say you can't execute similar concepts from the gun, but it is more limited.  We don't run as much zone-concepts, it's more gap schemes or gap/pull.

 

Dorsey has added a few more wrinkles, in the run game, from the gun. Primarily the outside draws, trying to take advantage of wide 9 splits/DEs rushing upfield.

 

Back to being under center, the variety in run game opens up:

1. Playaction

2. TE usage

3. High-level: it occupies the LBs/2nd level of defense, and makes it easier for those tight windows and keeping LBs from getting to their drop zones immediately.

4. Defensive Line adjustments: we've been seeing more teams run " wide 9 " against us, when we're in shotgun. That sets up a lot of 1-1 with our tackles.  Under center, defenses are going to get out of wide 9 most of the time. So that helps in pass pro too.

 

I think teams like KC or even Miami LY, countered our under center looks with more blitzes.  So it's an opponent to opponent decision, staying in shotgun helps Josh get the ball out faster/more time in theory...especially against blitzing/ less zone teams.  Against Jets and Washington fronts, it makes alot of sense to stay under center 50%ish and try to get a run game going/slow down the DL

[Nephilim17]

7 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

I think the biggest "pro" of being under center, is run game variety.  Alot more schemes and options are on the table.  Not to say you can't execute similar concepts from the gun, but it is more limited.  We don't run as much zone-concepts, it's more gap schemes or gap/pull.

 

Dorsey has added a few more wrinkles, in the run game, from the gun. Primarily the outside draws, trying to take advantage of wide 9 splits/DEs rushing upfield.

 

Back to being under center, the variety in run game opens up:

1. Playaction

2. TE usage

3. High-level: it occupies the LBs/2nd level of defense, and makes it easier for those tight windows and keeping LBs from getting to their drop zones immediately.

4. Defensive Line adjustments: we've been seeing more teams run " wide 9 " against us, when we're in shotgun. That sets up a lot of 1-1 with our tackles.  Under center, defenses are going to get out of wide 9 most of the time. So that helps in pass pro too.

 

I think teams like KC or even Miami LY, countered our under center looks with more blitzes.  So it's an opponent to opponent decision, staying in shotgun helps Josh get the ball out faster/more time in theory...especially against blitzing/ less zone teams.  Against Jets and Washington fronts, it makes alot of sense to stay under center 50%ish and try to get a run game going/slow down the DL

Super appreciated. I'd buy you a beer for this IRL. 🍻

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

How could the OL Not handle that? Blocking is blocking, under center, shotgun doesn't matter.

 The league years ago walked away from under center sets.  

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 The league years ago walked away from under center sets.  

Set the Trend, go back to it quite a bit. Josh has been thriving on it.  Now exclusively, no. I would like to amend my earlier % and drop it to say 40% of the snaps. I think he, and the offense would thrive.

[mannc]

6 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 The league years ago walked away from under center sets.  

Why, though?  Because that’s all these guys do in college?

[Chaos]

It is situational to me. I don't think we should be in the shotgun on third and 1 ever for example. 

[Mr. WEO]

8 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Set the Trend, go back to it quite a bit. Josh has been thriving on it.  Now exclusively, no. I would like to amend my earlier % and drop it to say 40% of the snaps. I think he, and the offense would thrive.

 

Going backwards isn't trend setting.

 

A couple of good showings vs marginal teams isn't the way to remaster your Offense. There's no reason to believe that if the Bills shifted to a lot more Josh under Center that the trend would hold.  Obviously teams would change the way they defend him, don't you think?

 

The Offense is, across a whole year, pretty stout as is, despite roster changes each season.  

 

3 minutes ago, mannc said:

Why, though?  Because that’s all these guys do in college?

 

 

Pretty much.  College Offense has predominated in the NFL for a while.  Lots of coordinators from the college game.  Plus with the dominance of RPO, the shotgun is king.

[WotAGuy]

5 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:

We're taking football advice from this guy?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0OkR986LL4

Someone named Dan Darragh has no business criticizing any QB, I’m sorry. I watched that dude stink up the joint. 

35 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 The league years ago walked away from under center sets.  

Besides it was so cool watching Staubach in the gun!

[Matt_In_NH]

I like Orlovsky and I am good with more Josh under center.....however, some of the stuff he spewed about it calming him down and how great it is for everything the Bills do is a little far fetched.  

[JerseyBills]

Eh, many media were picking the Skins to win and more to at least cover the points.  We had zero run game for 3 qtrs, consistently behind the sticks and Josh was pulled with over 8 min to go, when they finally wore them out and ran on them. 

This is the best dl in the game on paper and solid defense. 

It wasn't the prettiest offensive game but we didn't need Josh to put on the cape , when needed,  he will

[Old Coot]

I'll add a twist to the shotgun- under center debate and play action.

 

As Shaw has said classic play-action was a pass play disguised as a run play with QB under center and a fake handoff to the RB. 

 

Thr Run-Pass Option (RPO) needs to be executed from a shotgun or pistol formation. The RB meshes with the QB. The QB is essentially reading a conflict defender, lets say the left outside linebacker, to decide whether the RB keeps the ball or the QB takes the ball back and passes. If the LB plays pass and backs up the QB lets the RB have the ball who runs. If the LB plays run and stays clos to the line, the QB keeps the ball and hits a receiver behind the LB. It's not easy to run an RPO from under center because You cannot run an RPO from under center because the QB is running backward while at the same time reading the LB and trying to mesh with the RB.

 

I suspect that Josh is more successful passing in an RPO when the conflict defender plays run than on a straight passing play with no fake to the RB because he's read the defender playing run so he passes to take advantage of the defender's decision to play run.

[HappyDays]

13 hours ago, Logic said:

Josh Allen, I think, ESPECIALLY benefits from play-action.

 

One reason for this that I don't see talked about a lot is that Josh has genuinely elite sleight of hand in those situations. He apparently does magic as a light hobby and it shows. It's one thing to just go through the motions of faking the handoff but Josh really SELLS it. I notice this especially on play action rollouts where often times even the camera man is fooled by Josh's ball handling. It's a huge underrated piece of his success in play action IMO.

[Zag20]

14 hours ago, Dan Darragh said:

We're taking football advice from this guy?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J0OkR986LL4

That’s just 2 points given away. A pick 6 is 7.

[Dan Darragh]

4 hours ago, Zag20 said:

That’s just 2 points given away. A pick 6 is 7.

If a pick 6 is 7, why don't they call it a pick 7?