Dan Orlovsky on the Bills Offense Yesterday

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, Captain Hindsight said:

So he is just good no matter what?

 

Yes, but there is a pretty remarkable difference in the level of “good” between the two.

 

On play-action, he’s Tom Brady. On non play-action, he’s Brett Favre.

[Royale with Cheese]

We should be running play action at least 20% more.

[SoonerBillsFan]

3 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

So he is just good no matter what?

A 1.94 TD to INT ratio is not good.  A 4.07 TD to INT ratio is.  So under the center has proven better.

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Yes, but there is a pretty remarkable difference in the level of “good” between the two.

 

On play-action, he’s Tom Brady. On non play-action, he’s Brett Favre.

Good Analogy 

[SectionC3]

17 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

It's common sense to me.

 

Playing under center means more traditional play action and that causes a longer pause in the defense to create more separation and big play opportunities.

 

And the shotgun too often leads to "spread" dink-and-dunk football..........which is detestable when you have a QB capable of more.   

 

And yes, the Bills need to work the short game but doing so from under center keeps Allen in rhythm,   which helps with his timing/touch/accuracy, IMO.

  

Some of those throws out of PA yesterday were breathtaking.  

 

I’m impressed with the offseason work thus far.  We rebuilt the IOL, committed to our most talented RB, and made a conscious effort to keep Josh cleaner with better protection and better complimentary football.  I do feel like we have a “rope-a-dope” game plan on the horizon (think KC regular season 2022) where we do something completely different from what we’ve been showing.  

[Shaw66]

That's an interesting take.   The only top team that bucks the trend is the 49ers.  

 

I suspected that teams that run more under center also run the ball more, and that's true.   It's not exactly a one-to-one correlation, but generally speaking, the teams that played most out of shotgun also passed the most.  The 49ers were in the top half of teams with highest running percentage.  

 

Not sure what to make of this.  I don't think that the Bills ought to play out of shotgun just because the successful teams do.   Maybe it means that shotgun and passing is the best way to build an offense, but as Orlovsky suggests, some of it may have to do with the strength and weakness of your QB.   For one thing, the shorter the QB, the more I'd think you'd want him in shotgun, because he needs as much help seeing the field as possible.  Beyond that, some QBs may be better in one formation than the other.  

 

As Einstein's data showed, Josh seems to be much effective passing in play action (probably true for pretty much every QB), and that would be one argument in favor of running under center.   As the commentators tell us every week, because it's true, if you can run the ball, then play action sucks in the linebackers and makes passing over the middle easier.  It certainly helps to be able to have gimme throws for 12-15 yards over the middle.   

 

Orlovsky is just one voice, but I suspect this is an issue the Bills have listened to, or will.  I'm sure they have the data already, which means they know how successful they've been each way, even broken down by down, distance, time of game, red zone, etc.  Orlovsky seems to think there's a dramatic difference with Josh, and maybe there is.  

 

As for giving Josh an advantage when he runs the ball, maybe he does run better out of the shotgun, but the Bills offense will feature Josh running less and less.  Josh's running edge will continue to be a factor, but primarily on scrambles and not designed runs.  He's agile and mobile, and I think he probably can scramble off plays that start under center just as well as shotgun plays. 

Edited September 25, 2023 by Shaw66

[Logic]

I wanted to say two things:

First, this is an excellent thread and a great discussion. It's posts like this that make TBD such a great place. Even @Einstein, who sometimes makes me want to shake a puppy, provided an excellent contribution. Thank you, Einstein, and thank you everyone else who is contributing.

Second, I am team "play-action always makes the QB and the offense better. Always, always, always". There has been data over the years showing that you don't even need to be running the ball effectively for play-action to work well. No matter what, the defense HAS to account for the run possibility. It's just innately ingrained in the brains of defensive players to react -- at least a little bit -- to the handoff action. Even the tiniest split second of hesitation for a defensive player gives an advantage to the offense, just like pre-snap motion does.

Josh Allen, I think, ESPECIALLY benefits from play-action. I don't have any evidence to back that up other than what Einstein already provided. It's just an anecdotal, gut feeling I've gotten from watching him over his career. Josh just seems better off play-fakes. Always has.

I can't comment as much on the "under center vs shotgun" debate, except to say that on the graph provided above, there ARE some successful offenses all the way to the left of the chart, like the Rams and Lions. Shotgun is not NECESSARILY a prerequisite for success in the modern NFL. 

Hopefully, the new emphasis on heavier personnel sets in the Bills offense and the new commitment to and success with running the ball will continue to lead to more pro sets, more play-fakes, and better Josh Allen.

[Rubes]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

Josh Allen with NO play-action:

61.7%, 99 TD, 51 INT, 86.9 QB rating. 6.7 YPA.

 

Josh Allen w/ play action:

68.6%, 53 TD, 13 INT, 117.5 QB rating. 9.1 YPA.

 

Not to nit-pick, but you can do play-action from the shotgun. So I don't think this represents under center vs. not under center.

 

[Einstein]

1 minute ago, Rubes said:

 

Not to nit-pick, but you can do play-action from the shotgun. So I don't think this represents under center vs. not under center.

 

I don't think Allen is any better under center than in Shotgun.

 

The key to Allen playing well is play-action. 

But play-action and under center often coincide, and that is where I believe people see the correlation.

[MAJBobby]

My eye test seems to think Sunday was the best I have seen from this offense and Allen all year. 
 

his mix was 

- under center for 23 snaps on Sunday 

- in the Gun 48 snaps on Sunday. 
 

that is a fine mix going forward. With the two TEs he really could be under center even more and not lose anything in terms of passing. 
 

and Josh running is not hampered as his best running comes from escapes and all. 
 

fact is by not being in shot gun EVERY time the DE has to guess at the attack point. 
 

in shotgun you know your attack point and it makes it harder in your OTs in protection as the DE knows exactly where to get too. 
 

this protection reason is one of the main reason Eric Woods has been calling for Josh under center more for years. 

[TH3]

1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:

Can someone help me out and explain why — in this offense with Josh specifically — Josh is better under center, as Orlovsky says?

 

1. How is protection better? Dan says it calms Josh down a bit.

2. How does Josh read the field better?

3. How do the route running/concepts change and/or improve?

Just trying to understand and specific examples help me. Thanks in advance. 🍻

That's not how it works here....Post like you know it all and just glom onto a theme and hammer it home without any analsys

[RobbRiddick]

When Dan isn't talking ***** with people like Stephen A Smith he can be pretty interesting to listen to

[warrior9]

56 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

A 1.94 TD to INT ratio is not good.  A 4.07 TD to INT ratio is.  So under the center has proven better.

Good Analogy 

It's proven better because we don't do it as often. 

I'd assume those numbers drop if we add 30% to our under center ratio. More planning, more film, etc. 

[Shaw66]

18 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

Not to nit-pick, but you can do play-action from the shotgun. So I don't think this represents under center vs. not under center.

 

I agree, and it's a good point, but my eye tells me there's a difference.  Play action from the shotgun is the simple fake handoff to the running back standing beside or behind the QB.  It's essentially a fake draw-play.   Kelly and Thurman ran it all the time, but that was at a time when defenses hadn't adjusted yet to that style.  Play action from under center is more threatening to the defense.  For one thing, the QB makes some affirmative movements in order to execute the fake, movements that look exactly like a running play, and depending on what's being faked, it could be any kind of running play - pulling linemen, draw, power, off tackle, stretch play.   It's hard to simulate all of that out of shotgun.   So, I think, the defense is forced to respond to the urgency of the play-fake coming from the QB at the line of scrimmage.  

 

The actual fake also tends to be much more effective from under center.   The play-fake on Josh's TD pass to Knox last week is an example.  Josh had his back to the line of scrimmage with the ball tucked way into his belly while his other hand executed the fake.  He and the running back passed so close to each other that it was really hard for the defense to see if he put the ball into the back's belly or kept it.   The result was that when he rolled left he was left with very few defenders in front of him.   You just can't fake like that out of the shotgun, because the ball always is in full view. 

 

And one other thing about playing under center.  If you have a tall QB, and the Bills do, the QB can stand up and make the quick throw to the receiver running a shall inside slant.   Or take a three-step drop and throw.   The benefit of doing that has to do with geometry.   If you're three yards behind the line scrimmage and throwing over the middle, fewer defensive linemen are in the line of sight of the QB than when you're six or seven yards behind the line.   (Draw a picture and you'll see.)  So being under center makes a few passing plays more effective. 

 

And two more things:  Josh has a bad tendency to escape backward, which allows the edge rushers to slip their blocks.  When Josh is dropping from under center, he naturally can't get as deep in the pocket, which will help him step up, rather than step back, when the rush comes.   And it also helps Josh run a quick hitting draw play - two-step drop and burst up the middle. 

 

I can see a lot of advantages to having him under center. 

 

 

[warrior9]

25 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

My eye test seems to think Sunday was the best I have seen from this offense and Allen all year. 
 

his mix was 

- under center for 23 snaps on Sunday 

- in the Gun 48 snaps on Sunday. 
 

that is a fine mix going forward. With the two TEs he really could be under center even more and not lose anything in terms of passing. 
 

and Josh running is not hampered as his best running comes from escapes and all. 
 

fact is by not being in shot gun EVERY time the DE has to guess at the attack point. 
 

in shotgun you know your attack point and it makes it harder in your OTs in protection as the DE knows exactly where to get too. 
 

this protection reason is one of the main reason Eric Woods has been calling for Josh under center more for years. 

this... 

 

Going under center often will also give different cues based on film etc. I think Dorsey called a well balanced game yesterday. We need him to stick to that in close games and HIM not panic and evacuate under center as well. 

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

He isn't a kid anymore, he should be able to read the field without being in the Shotgun. I agree 70-80% of the time, be under center.

 

come on...

 

No team does this--not even close.   The O-line couldn't handle that anyway.

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

come on...

 

No team does this--not even close.   The O-line couldn't handle that anyway.

How could the OL Not handle that? Blocking is blocking, under center, shotgun doesn't matter.

[Dan Darragh]

4 hours ago, wvbillsfan said:

That’s a tired take. His football analysis goes beyond what he did as a player 

 

He may not have had the physical tools or coaching to succeed but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t understand what he’s seeing on a football field. 

Sorry, that will never get old.  And it wasn't lack of physical tools that caused the safety, it was his "football analysis"

[Mikie2times]

5 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

I am not arguing one way or another, but is there any data supporting this? I mean some stats split JA under center vs JA in shotgun.

Significant data supports it. You could even see it in his Wyoming film.  

[appoo]

Orlovsky and the NFL Live on ESPN vrew had a wondeful conversation about this last year, well worth the 9 minute listen if you enjoy Ball Talk

 

https://x.com/danorlovsky7/status/1577665506550718464?s=20

 

EDIT

 

Check the comments in twitter as well. These guys hit on something here on under center vs Shotgun

Edited September 25, 2023 by appoo

[mannc]

Does anyone remember when shotgun was a formation that college and pro teams used to use to help out their undersized QBs who had trouble seeing (and throwing) past the line of scrimmage when under center?  Doesn't seem to apply here...  

Edited September 25, 2023 by mannc