Week 4, Bills favored by 3 over Dolphins

[boyst]

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Psssst

What if I told you that Jonathan Jones was inactive that game? 

And Jalen Mills only played 37% of the snaps?

 

Safeties Duggar and Peppers (4.49 and 4.46)

CB Gonzalez and. on 84% of the snaps, Miles Bryant (4.62 40)

 

Now Gonzalez (4.38 40) is legit fast.  No faster than Kaiir Elam ( 4.39 40)

 

But the biggest factor in coverage is mental processing and reaction time - not whether one set of safeties ran a 40 yd dash in under 4.5 while another was mid-4.5s when they came in the league and probably slower

 

It wouldn't surprise me to see Elam active this week

 

You know, the Dolphins *did* have Mostert, Waddle, and Hill when we played them last September and last December

Now, we did lose to them 21-19 in September, but I would have to say a fumble recovered on our own 6 yard line resulting in a Miami TD, some wierd decisions at the end of half,  missed FG, and a TOD had more to do with that than speed differential between their skill players and our secondary did.  Well, that and horrendous heat.

 

 

 

Nice vomit emoji reaction, @boyst, but be kind of nice to hear an answer: "Share your concern on Bernard."

My concern with Bernard is that he will have too much to read, too much going on, and have the kitchen sink thrown at him with scheming and movements to cause his head to spin.

[WV Fin Phan]

I’m not sure if you can stop the combination of motions, the speed, the routes the anticipation of Tua’s throws.  
 

Bills defenders are tasked with multiple decisions every 1.5 to 2 seconds on every play.  When they guess wrong, the fins will enjoy chunk play after chunk play.  What happens when they go no huddle?   Havent yet this year, but it’s coming.   mcD doesn’t give a ***** about TOP.   
 

its going to be a great game.   Allen can take a game over at will and im not sure miami is ready or able to stop him.  We haven’t got a good feel of Vangios D yet.   I won’t be surprised with any outcome.

 

Its only week 4 and with a rematch looming, this doesn’t lock in anything for title hopes.  Dolphins win, im going back to gloat a bit.  If Bills take it, I’ll be here to congratulate you fine Buffalonians

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, WV Fin Phan said:

I’m not sure if you can stop the combination of motions, the speed, the routes the anticipation of Tua’s throws.  
 

Bills defenders are tasked with multiple decisions every 1.5 to 2 seconds on every play.  When they guess wrong, the fins will enjoy chunk play after chunk play.  What happens when they go no huddle?   Havent yet this year, but it’s coming.   mcD doesn’t give a ***** about TOP.   
 

its going to be a great game.   Allen can take a game over at will and im not sure miami is ready or able to stop him.  We haven’t got a good feel of Vangios D yet.   I won’t be surprised with any outcome.

 

Its only week 4 and with a rematch looming, this doesn’t lock in anything for title hopes.  Dolphins win, im going back to gloat a bit.  If Bills take it, I’ll be here to congratulate you fine Buffalonians

If the patriots defense can, our defense can.  

[Special K]

I really hope O'Cyrus Torrence consistently grinds Christian Wlikins dirty-player a** right into the turf.

 

No Phillips for the Phins should help the Bills O-line ....they will be the key to the Bills scoring enough points in this one.

 

Go Bills!!

 

[Beck Water]

6 hours ago, appoo said:

Beck Waters has those times above.  Benford is the fastest DB the bills have right now and he ran a 4.53, so I guess Myles Bryant slower when Jones isn't active. 

 

Bills will occasionally play some Cover 3 and man, but I'm not sure we'll see much of that at all against the Dolphins. I think the variation will come with Quarter vs 2 and some cover 6 as well, backers playing man, zone or blizing. But I'd be really surprised if we don't have 2 deep safeties on practically every play

 

You're misrepresenting what I said.  You were talking about any "rotational secondary player"

 

Kaiir Elam, who has been inactive, ran a combine 4.39.  That is the same as Christian Gonzales and 0.06 slower than Jonathan  Jones, who as I noted was inactive last 2 games.

 

If you're hung up on combine 40 times (pajama olympics) Tre White's 4.47 time is ~= faster than everyone on the Patriots secondary but Gonzales.   Whether he's still that fast or not, good question, but same question applies to players like Jonathan Jones.

 

Again, it's possible that there are other factors than speed which govern how effective DBs can be.

 

It will be interesting to see what McDermott comes up with.  One problem I had with the D under Frazier is that it seemed as though he had to play a team 2 or 3 times to come up with a defense effective against them (which he eventually would do).  It will be interesting to see if McDermott is able to shorten that learning curve.

 

2 hours ago, boyst said:

My concern with Bernard is that he will have too much to read, too much going on, and have the kitchen sink thrown at him with scheming and movements to cause his head to spin.

 

Fair concern.  That was my concern about him going into the season, because that's exactly how I thought he played last season in the game he started (too much to read, too much going on, head spinning).

 

I was wrong so far, but yeah, the Dolphins are by far the biggest challenge he has faced to date.

Edited September 29, 2023 by Beck Water

[buffblue]

3 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Lol just realized if you take away Howell’s sacks the Commanders put up over 400 yards on Denver …… in Denver.  
 

The Broncos have absolutely quit on Payton or Russ.  Maybe both.   
 

 

 

We’re going to beat the ***t out of them.   
 

Sunday can’t get here soon enough.   

I have a very confident feeling about the Bills this week, and not because of any lack of respect for the Dolphins. Miami is the real deal and I have been unequivocal about that. 

 

But this game means much more to Buffalo. It is in our house, the Dolphins have been basking in adulation all week, and the Bills are being treated as yesterday's news. We will be ready come Sunday

Edited September 29, 2023 by buffblue

[billsfan89]

I have a feeling McD is going to try something really out there early on to try and stop the Fins. I am thinking they go to a 3-3 alignment using Rapp as the third linebacker and play cover 3. That type of alignment would put a lot of speed at the second level and cover the top level.

 

It would be a combination of what the Pats did with cover 3 but adding a safety down at the second level. I also think Rapp is big enough to help in the run game while covering the middle of the field.

 

Just a random thought based on speculation 

[Nihilarian]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

If the patriots defense can, our defense can.  

I hope so as this game worries me. Can the Buffalo secondary keep up with all their speed?

 

If they win both teams are 3-1 and Buffalo has the edge. If they lose 2-2 vs 4-0 yikes.

 

A shame Von isn't playing.

 

 

[Special K]

Would a Bills vs. Lions Super Bowl make the Universe fold in on itself??

[GETTOTHE50]

7 minutes ago, Special K said:

Would a Bills vs. Lions Super Bowl make the Universe fold in on itself??

This is my ideal Super Bowl

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

5 hours ago, NewEra said:

If the patriots defense can, our defense can.  

absolutely!

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 hours ago, Special K said:

Would a Bills vs. Lions Super Bowl make the Universe fold in on itself??

Bills vs 49ers is destiny.

[BillsUberAlles]

9 hours ago, WV Fin Phan said:

I’m not sure if you can stop the combination of motions, the speed, the routes the anticipation of Tua’s throws.  
 

Bills defenders are tasked with multiple decisions every 1.5 to 2 seconds on every play.  When they guess wrong, the fins will enjoy chunk play after chunk play.  What happens when they go no huddle?   Havent yet this year, but it’s coming.   mcD doesn’t give a ***** about TOP.   
 

its going to be a great game.   Allen can take a game over at will and im not sure miami is ready or able to stop him.  We haven’t got a good feel of Vangios D yet.   I won’t be surprised with any outcome.

 

Its only week 4 and with a rematch looming, this doesn’t lock in anything for title hopes.  Dolphins win, im going back to gloat a bit.  If Bills take it, I’ll be here to congratulate you fine Buffalonians

 

You aren't going to completely stop it but you can force them to not get easy yards and force Tua to have to go to his 2nd and 3rd options which will make him hold the ball long enough for our DLine to get to him hopefully.

 

Don't forget McD came up with the game plan that slowed them down early last year also which was copied 5-6 weeks later by the Chargers and attributed to them...no, they simply stole McDermott's gameplay from week 3.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Dolphins are going to try and run it all over us first and foremost. 

 

Run D continues to be our weakness. This year they have looked really good for stretches but they still consistently give up huge chunk plays in the running game. 

[Since1981]

On 9/28/2023 at 3:25 AM, Dr.Sack said:

No need. Rush 4, cover their 5 targets with 7.

3-3-5 I can see. Smack Hill at 4 yds with backup behind (double)

however, too much change would be risky to making the D “think” too much. 

Edited September 29, 2023 by Since1981

[Not at the table Karlos]

22 hours ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

 

 

Drew Bledsoe announced as the Bills Legend of the Game against Miami

 

 

Drew Bledsoe will be the Bills Legend of the Game for Buffalo's 1 p.m. contest against the Miami Dolphins this Sunday. Bledsoe is excited to return to the stadium where his NFL career began.

 

Initially drafted as a Patriot, Bledsoe made his debut against Buffalo in 1993 before the Bills traded a first-round pick to acquire the star quarterback from New England in 2003.

 

"Coming back into that stadium and having the fans welcome me rather than boo the crap out of me was great," Bledsoe said. "Loved it. We just, very quickly, fell in love with everything about Western New York and especially being a part of the Bills."

 

One of Bledsoe's favorite memories about his time in Buffalo was the passion and respect of Bills Mafia.

buffalobills.com

I could be misremembering but didn't he talk s*** about Buffalo when he left and went to Cowboys?

[mjt328]

Maybe I'm wrong.  But I just feel like way too much hype is being generated, based on the results of one game.

 

Two weeks ago, the Dolphins were considered among the Top 5 most explosive offenses in the NFL.  But after the Broncos game, they are suddenly unstoppable.  They are suddenly able to score at will on absolutely everyone.  Suddenly even the best defenses in the league will be lucky to hold them under 45-50.

 

Would everyone be saying the same thing if the Dolphins scored in the 50s last week?  It was an amazing performance, no doubt.  But they did have two touchdowns handed to them (turnovers within the 10 yard line).  They were still bombing the ball in the mid-4th quarter, when most teams would be running clock.  And the Broncos were clearly gassed and simply gave up on the last touchdown run (at the very least).

  

I guess we will find out on Sunday.  Are the Dolphins a great offense, who had an exceptional record-breaking day?  Or have they found a revolutionary scheme/talent combo that will destroy every remaining opponent on their schedule?

 

Edited September 29, 2023 by mjt328

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

14 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

I could be misremembering but didn't he talk s*** about Buffalo when he left and went to Cowboys?

heard that. I think he was unhappy with being released for JP Losman. I have no real issue with him. he loves bills mafia and his beef was more with organization and how they handled his release.

[eball]

19 hours ago, I am leaving for good said:

This Miami Dolphins game is a must game for the Buffalo Bills at home this week. I realize it’s early in the season but the Bills can’t afford to go 0-2 in the AFC East in the first four weeks in my opinion. Go Bills! Let’s Go Buffalo 

 

The ONLY thing I will give you credit for is that this is your shortest post ever, and thus the least amount of drivel I have to read.  Well done, sir.

 

[boyst]

47 minutes ago, Since1981 said:

3-3-5 I can see. Smack Hill at 4 yds with backup behind (double)

however, too much change would be risky to making the D “think” too much. 

3(1)-2(1)-4 - the 1 is the disguise.

1) an off LOS spy to delay the rush/blitz or spy the qb's read. in this case we use milano as we have done before. but the wrinkle we have seen a few glimpses of AJ and Floyd dropping into coverage. this means we can disguise what the rush, only rushing 3. use AJ or Floyd to drop into coverage. this could mean a corner or nickel blitz. this means we have 3 DL but one is effectively dropping back to coverage as a second layer defender/LB.

 

Rosseau- Oliver - Floyd   /   Lawson - Jones/Philips - AJ

 

2) Milano is the off the LOS spy who can swap with the drop back coverage DL to still present a 4 man rush. Bernard needs to be an ATC monitoring the literal air traffic control of the pass game Miami will unleash.

 

Rapp can enter the box and be an additional linebacker in a zone coverage scheme for cover 3. Good article here I skimmed which may help folks: https://www.viqtorysports.com/the-basics-of-the-3-high-safety-defense/

 

This keeps hits off of Poyer and Hyde and lets them ball hawk to their natural traits.

 

3) Hyde and Poyer are obvious. But, Taron Johnson playing his nickel can focus on his role/zone. Rapp there to move up and press the flat pre-snap keeps Tua's eyes adjusting the entire pre-snap. In todays NFL the play is nearly won or lost pre-snap with the correct reads and appropriate adjustments. tua is very smart - he can read almost any scheme and matchup. he has great pedigree and talent to become a top tier quarterback if he doesn't get knocked out of the game.

 

7 hours ago, Special K said:

Would a Bills vs. Lions Super Bowl make the Universe fold in on itself??

according to Alvin Mack, this was the Punic War.