Week 4, Bills favored by 3 over Dolphins

[Buffalo Super Fan]

This Miami Dolphins game is a must game for the Buffalo Bills at home this week. I realize it’s early in the season but the Bills can’t afford to go 0-2 in the AFC East in the first four weeks in my opinion. Go Bills! Let’s Go Buffalo 

[billsfan89]

14 minutes ago, I am leaving for good said:

This Miami Dolphins game is a must game for the Buffalo Bills at home this week. I realize it’s early in the season but the Bills can’t afford to go 0-2 in the AFC East in the first four weeks in my opinion. Go Bills! Let’s Go Buffalo 

 

A loss to Miami would effectively put the Bills 3 games back of Miami. Two games back (4-0 vs. 2-2) plus the Bills likely with a loss to Miami would not have a tiebreaker as Miami is not likely to lose twice to the current Jets squad or NE at home so the division record would likely be 5-1 at worst (if the Bills can win an away game). 

 

Now that's not to say that the Bills couldn't win the division being 2-2 while Miami is 4-0, but it would be very hard esp in a likely scenario where the Bills would not hold the tiebreaker. Now even if the Bills don't win the division they can still win the SB coming out of the wildcard but it would just be a lot hard to win 3 road games. Hopefully the Bills come out with a win and set themselves up with a nice quarter of the season at 3-1. 

[boyst]

40 minutes ago, wjag said:

So I just watched the all 22 on Tua's passes against Denver.  One thing that jumped out to me was he consistently threw to the place on the field where his head was at the snap.  He rarely tries to move the Mike or safeties.  It's been discussed a lot on here about the timing this offense executes in.  This bares it out.  They do a ton of in breaking routes.  I watched NE too.  NE played a lot of 3 high safety to keep everything in front of them.  The Miami screen game is one of the better ones I've seen. 

 

not to dump on a former player but i am encouraged that our new MLB can read the QB and play to this ability. in the past we had an athletic MLB who could rely on his abilities to make up for his lack of reading the QB. 

 

on the other hand i am concerned about Bernard being exposed too early and would rather have played McDaniels in a few weeks vs week 4. if anyone is going to find his flaws it will be a guy who has never been laid, spends his time reading LOTR, and has the entire Twilight Collection. that "guy" is mike mcdaniel.

 

it'll be a good trial by fire for bernard but he is already showing his ability to read and react is more valuable than the athleticism of edmunds.

[Big Turk]

9 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

A loss to Miami would effectively put the Bills 3 games back of Miami. Two games back (4-0 vs. 2-2) plus the Bills likely with a loss to Miami would not have a tiebreaker as Miami is not likely to lose twice to the current Jets squad or NE at home so the division record would likely be 5-1 at worst (if the Bills can win an away game). 

 

Now that's not to say that the Bills couldn't win the division being 2-2 while Miami is 4-0, but it would be very hard esp in a likely scenario where the Bills would not hold the tiebreaker. Now even if the Bills don't win the division they can still win the SB coming out of the wildcard but it would just be a lot hard to win 3 road games. Hopefully the Bills come out with a win and set themselves up with a nice quarter of the season at 3-1. 

 

You are forgetting that at some point Tua will be out multiple games this year like always.

[Warcodered]

28 minutes ago, I am leaving for good said:

This Miami Dolphins game is a must game for the Buffalo Bills at home this week. I realize it’s early in the season but the Bills can’t afford to go 0-2 in the AFC East in the first four weeks in my opinion. Go Bills! Let’s Go Buffalo 

I mean obviously winning would make things much easier, but we were fine when that happened last year, but sure let's put as much weight on one game as possible.

[BillsFan130]

2 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I didn't watch their game vs NE. I see they scored 24 points. Anyone know what BB did to slow them down? 

Waddle went down and that was huge I think, as BB blitzed a lot more.

 

Miami also had 2 missed field goals.

 

If waddle stayed healthy and those field goals were hit, I think Miami would have gotten 31-37 points 

[billsfan89]

4 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

You are forgetting that at some point Tua will be out multiple games this year like always.

 

I think Miami has basically built an offense around avoiding Tua getting hurt. Just one to two quick reads is all that he does before getting rid of the ball. Will it work for the rest of the season esp as teams get more and more tape on it? We will have to see. My other thing with Miami is on the injury front is Mostert Mostert is the epitome of great when plays but is always hurt. He is 31 and has had 3-4 serious injuries during his career. Likely because of how fast he plays at RB it makes him susceptible to injuries. The Fins did a good job last year at keeping him mostly healthy in a reserve role but those fast RB's are a ticking time bomb when it comes to injury even more so than "normal" RB's who are already at a high risk for injury. 

 

Can you build that high speed high-collision team and not get guys hurt? San Fran plays a more power-oriented offense with bigger guys not speed players (and even the 49ers have had trouble keeping Kittle and their RB's healthy at times) whereas Miami is mostly speed with their two WR's and two RB's. Likely you can keep the WR's more healthy but those RB's are eventually going to take high speed hits. 

[Warcodered]

 

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I wrote a decent reply to this but my internet went out and I lost it. I'll write a quicker one because I dont feel like writing all that again lol...

 

Even week 2 most of the passes are in the middle of the field. The ones that have gone outside are mostly prayer balls on busted coverage.  Tua really does have a weak arm.  His passes over the middle have much more zip.  Thats why most of the receiver routes from both Hill and Waddle take them over the middle of the field.  Seeing a chart is one thing.  I watched a lot of those passes.  Some of them were ok but mostly prayer balls. Some of them should have been an int because they took forever to get there but either the defender didn't even look for it or Hill made a nice grab on a 50/50 ball. Some of them he was rolled or flushed out to that side making those passes effectively the same as middle of the field passes.

 

I didn't see a chart for Week 2 (unless you meant the other I put up there for Week 1 vs Chargers)

 

Did not watch that game at all so defer to what you saw

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

Bruce Smith was terrifying.  Aaron Donald is/was terrifying.  Lawrence Taylor was terrifying.  Jevon Holland is not terrifying, he is a good player.  Maybe my standard for terrifying is too strict?

 

Aaron Donald aside drug testing was not up to today's standards back in the day -  it got harder for players to skirt the rules (aka the whizzinator), but some of those guys that predated that crack down played crazy for a reason.

Bruce who comes off as soft-spoken these days was much different when he was terrorizing QBs. I cannot find the quote, but I swear he was the guy who described a good hit on a QB being one where "the snot flies out of his nose and when that man holds up 2 fingers he says 3..." or something to that effect.

Terrifying is about right.

 

 

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by WideNine

[The Wiz]

 

 

[Big Turk]

21 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I think Miami has basically built an offense around avoiding Tua getting hurt. Just one to two quick reads is all that he does before getting rid of the ball. Will it work for the rest of the season esp as teams get more and more tape on it? We will have to see. My other thing with Miami is on the injury front is Mostert Mostert is the epitome of great when plays but is always hurt. He is 31 and has had 3-4 serious injuries during his career. Likely because of how fast he plays at RB it makes him susceptible to injuries. The Fins did a good job last year at keeping him mostly healthy in a reserve role but those fast RB's are a ticking time bomb when it comes to injury even more so than "normal" RB's who are already at a high risk for injury. 

 

Can you build that high speed high-collision team and not get guys hurt? San Fran plays a more power-oriented offense with bigger guys not speed players (and even the 49ers have had trouble keeping Kittle and their RB's healthy at times) whereas Miami is mostly speed with their two WR's and two RB's. Likely you can keep the WR's more healthy but those RB's are eventually going to take high speed hits. 

 

He is going to get hit, there is no way around it.  They can try and limit it as much as possible, but at some point he is going to get levelled and based on how fragile his body seems to be with the laundry list of injuries he has had, it's a more a matter of when not if.

[wjag]

So Poyer is D2D.  Got dinged in the game.

[Beck Water]

50 minutes ago, boyst said:

not to dump on a former player but i am encouraged that our new MLB can read the QB and play to this ability. in the past we had an athletic MLB who could rely on his abilities to make up for his lack of reading the QB. 

 

on the other hand i am concerned about Bernard being exposed too early and would rather have played McDaniels in a few weeks vs week 4. if anyone is going to find his flaws it will be a guy who has never been laid, spends his time reading LOTR, and has the entire Twilight Collection. that "guy" is mike mcdaniel.

 

it'll be a good trial by fire for bernard but he is already showing his ability to read and react is more valuable than the athleticism of edmunds.

 

Believe it or not, geeky little nerd-type guys get loooove too.  Though you're allowed to think he "outkicked his coverage"  because he pretty clearly did.

 

 

Share your concern on Bernard.

[billsfan89]

Just now, Big Turk said:

 

He is going to get hit, there is no way around it.  They can try and limit it as much as possible, but at some point he is going to get levelled and based on how fragile his body seems to be with the laundry list of injuries he has had, it's a more a matter of when not if.

 

Of course, he is going to take some hits, even Brady behind some amazing offensive lines with as quick of a release as you can get and a mind that processed the game as fast if not faster than anyone took hits. But the offense is designed to limit the hits by just making everything 1-2 quick reads and then throwing the ball away. The fewer hits you take the less of a chance you have to get hurt. Will that less hits equals more healthy approach work? It's really the only choice they have at this point. 

 

The injury risk to Tua and their RB's (particularly Mostert) is the most concerning injury issue on their offense. The other thing that is a risk to their season is their defense. Shootouts in the NFL are 50/50 affairs. That Chargers game could have gone either way for example. If they end up trying to win a lot of shootouts they will drop some games. 

 

I think we will know exactly how good or bad they are after Sunday. The Bills are a legit good team and I think McD is one of the best defensive coaches in the league with a talented squad. If the Fins can put up a big number they will have proven they are at least when healthy among the best offenses in the league. If they struggle or look more human like they did against the Pats then we have a different story. 

[boyst]

19 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Believe it or not, geeky little nerd-type guys get loooove too.  Though you're allowed to think he "outkicked his coverage"  because he pretty clearly did.

 

 

Share your concern on Bernard.

not fair to post his kid. I can't be mean

 

bernards gonna be having to quickly react to crossing routes in front of him that will disguise the routes. 

 

if I'm McDaniel I use waddle and hill as decoys to draw open the middle of the field. It'd be easy. 

 

id call the bluff that Bernard effectively hands off coverage and count on the fish in the seam.  Bernard is going to have waddle, mostert, a-chan, and a man who beat a pregnant woman, child, and an old man crossing all over his face.  If they can do this early and provide what we expect them to then switch step it over to simply make it an outside hook then that pass is there all day for 4-5 yards to 7-8 the way we play our defense.

 

do this on the weakside. Do this with a leaking RB, or a TE sitting in the middle box to occupy and be the dump off and make us choose 3-4 yards check down or 6-7 yards at the hash. Either way, with that area of the field open it is prime for speed to busy one down the gut. 

[WideNine]

15 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Of course, he is going to take some hits, even Brady behind some amazing offensive lines with as quick of a release as you can get and a mind that processed the game as fast if not faster than anyone took hits. But the offense is designed to limit the hits by just making everything 1-2 quick reads and then throwing the ball away. The fewer hits you take the less of a chance you have to get hurt. Will that less hits equals more healthy approach work? It's really the only choice they have at this point. 

 

The injury risk to Tua and their RB's (particularly Mostert) is the most concerning injury issue on their offense. The other thing that is a risk to their season is their defense. Shootouts in the NFL are 50/50 affairs. That Chargers game could have gone either way for example. If they end up trying to win a lot of shootouts they will drop some games. 

 

I think we will know exactly how good or bad they are after Sunday. The Bills are a legit good team and I think McD is one of the best defensive coaches in the league with a talented squad. If the Fins can put up a big number they will have proven they are at least when healthy among the best offenses in the league. If they struggle or look more human like they did against the Pats then we have a different story. 

 

They do lean into those quicker timing routes so he can throw to spots and avoid hits.

 

The Bills are doing more of that themselves.

 

I think Tua does a good job with ball placement hitting guys on the run on those screens and those motions to swing/wheel passes.

 

 

[BillsSbSoon]

6 hours ago, RunTheBall said:

The key to our D is to disrupt Tua’s timing. Yeah, you could say that about any QB but especially Tua because he’s the ultimate game manager. What I mean is McDaniels is scheming guys wide open and Tua is throwing to a spot with anticipation. Only when he comes off his first read does he really survey the defense to see who’s open. If you can get him off his first read, he’s not an off script guy.

 

Easier said than done. McDaniels has done a brilliant job of using motion and routes to make space for guys to get wide open. Dorsey should take some pointers from this guy - you don’t see 2 receivers in the same spot all the time and the motion is very effective. 

 

I think the best way to disrupt this is to blow up the gaps, especially Oliver and Jones in the A/B gaps. I’m sure we are going to see a lot of simulated pressures but if we can win off the snap and just get in Tua’s face, his timing will be disrupted, hopefully enough to disrupt the throw to his first read.

 

I doubt Tua is going to take many sacks with his 2.4 second time to throw, but if you make him second guess what he’s seeing he might. The pressure needs to come from the interior, the DE’s coming around the tackles won’t have enough time. So, they should rush contained, ready to defend the run and get their hands up. Send the heat from the interior and play zone for the most part. We can’t run with these receivers, Trey has lost a step, Poyer looks a step slower and Benford is an instinctive zone defender. It’s their bread and butter.

This has been my exact thought this week too. De’s rushing straight up the field isn’t going to get it done this week I don’t think. We have to get tua off of his spot. He’s not much of a threat to run either. I think McDermott is going to try to bring stunts and get the rush right into Tuas face 

[Buffalo716]

33 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Believe it or not, geeky little nerd-type guys get loooove too.  Though you're allowed to think he "outkicked his coverage"  because he pretty clearly did.

 

 

Share your concern on Bernard.

She looks just like him lol but blonde 

 

I don't think he outkicked his coverage.. she looks like his female equivalent

Edited September 28, 2023 by Buffalo716

[Warcodered]

45 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

 

 

He might not have said it with words but it's in the eyes.