Week 4, Bills favored by 3 over Dolphins

[The Wiz]

I like it

 

 

[Patrick Duffy]

36 minutes ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

The Dolphins defense is bottom half/middle of the pack.  Nobody on that D is "terrifying".  

 

Well, they're pretty decent up front and Wilkins can be disruptive (also eagerness for opportunity to grab Josh's one-eyed-critter)....

 

But as much as the blitz against Josh it can cause issues. Hopefully with Oline now playing better it won't be too bad

[Scott7975]

35 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Achane, Mostert, Waddle, and Hill are fast fast guys.  I expect it to be a tough battle, and they'll win some plays.

 

On the other hand, 3 of the 4 of them were there last season when we played the Dolphins. 

 

What offenses have the Dolphins played so far?  The Chargers managed 433 yds and 34 points, came down to giving up 10 points in the 4Q.

The Patriots haven't looked like an offensive juggernaut so far and 0-3 Denver just looks like a mess.

It's not like they've been shutting down the Eagles, the 49ers, and Kansas City.

 

 

 

?

 

 

They don't have Week 2.  Week 3 sort of matches what you say.

 

 

The theory is that Tua has greatly improved his ability to make that sideline throw.  Week 1 kinda bears that out.  Week 2 kinda bears you out.

 

I will say this, right now Tua's completed air yards are only slightly higher than the YAC on completions: 546 to 478 yds.

 

In an interesting twist, that's actually true for Josh Allen right now: 366 to 362 yds

 

 

 

 

 

I wrote a decent reply to this but my internet went out and I lost it. I'll write a quicker one because I dont feel like writing all that again lol...

 

Even week 2 most of the passes are in the middle of the field. The ones that have gone outside are mostly prayer balls on busted coverage.  Tua really does have a weak arm.  His passes over the middle have much more zip.  Thats why most of the receiver routes from both Hill and Waddle take them over the middle of the field.  Seeing a chart is one thing.  I watched a lot of those passes.  Some of them were ok but mostly prayer balls. Some of them should have been an int because they took forever to get there but either the defender didn't even look for it or Hill made a nice grab on a 50/50 ball. Some of them he was rolled or flushed out to that side making those passes effectively the same as middle of the field passes.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

[taglientep]

1 hour ago, JaCrispy said:

Best uniforms in football…👍

Love how Jeremy white called the the “Blue Lights” then saying the all Blue are the Blue Heavy’s

[dock581]

While Tua has been red hot and Hill and Waddle are devastating weapons it would not surprise me if the Fish are scheming to primarily use their running game to keep Josh and our O off the field. Mostert has had big games against us and Achane seems as scary fast as Breece Hall. Mix in a few quick slants to Tyreek and we could get burned for some long plays

[wjag]

So I just watched the all 22 on Tua's passes against Denver.  One thing that jumped out to me was he consistently threw to the place on the field where his head was at the snap.  He rarely tries to move the Mike or safeties.  It's been discussed a lot on here about the timing this offense executes in.  This bears it out.  They do a ton of in breaking routes.  I watched NE too.  NE played a lot of 3 high safety to keep everything in front of them.  The Miami screen game is one of the better ones I've seen. 

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by wjag

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Poyer knees shot or he’s afraid of the speed.

[Low Positive]

4 minutes ago, wjag said:

So I just watched the all 22 on Tua's passes against Denver.  One thing that jumped out to me was he consistently threw to the place on the field where his head was at the snap.  He rarely tries to move the Mike or safeties.  It's been discussed a lot on here about the timing this offense executes in.  This bares it out.  They do a ton of in breaking routes.  I watched NE too.  NE played a lot of 3 high safety to keep everything in front of them.  The Miami screen game is one of the better ones I've seen. 

 

Tua doesn't even throw to guys most of the time. He throws to a window that the guy runs into. He does stare at that window pre-snap, but it all happens so fast that there is little that a DB or LB can do. 

[Scott7975]

10 minutes ago, dock581 said:

While Tua has been red hot and Hill and Waddle are devastating weapons it would not surprise me if the Fish are scheming to primarily use their running game to keep Josh and our O off the field. Mostert has had big games against us and Achane seems as scary fast as Breece Hall. Mix in a few quick slants to Tyreek and we could get burned for some long plays

 

They will definitely run the ball.  One because they are good at it but also it keeps our defense off balance, spread out, an keeps our D from pinning their ears back. Our D is far better when an offense is one dimensional.  Most are.

[Pokebball]

It would be cool if another dimension of the coming matchup included the return of Von Miller. Oh well, a week early

[WV Fin Phan]

1 hour ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

The Dolphins defense is bottom half/middle of the pack.  Nobody on that D is "terrifying".  

 

Wilkins is, especially in a pile-up.  Ask Josh.  Also Holland and Kader will thump a player.

21 minutes ago, wjag said:

So I just watched the all 22 on Tua's passes against Denver.  One thing that jumped out to me was he consistently threw to the place on the field where his head was at the snap.  He rarely tries to move the Mike or safeties.  It's been discussed a lot on here about the timing this offense executes in.  This bares it out.  They do a ton of in breaking routes.  I watched NE too.  NE played a lot of 3 high safety to keep everything in front of them.  The Miami screen game is one of the better ones I've seen. 

 

MCDaniel has the Oline bought in.   Constant hustle downfield to hit anything standing.  Whole team is the same except Robbie Chosen.

Edited September 28, 2023 by WV Fin Phan

[PaattMaann]

1 hour ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

The Dolphins defense is bottom half/middle of the pack.  Nobody on that D is "terrifying".  

 

Jevon Holland is a top 2/3 safety in the league. He gets my vote for terrifying. 

 

But I agree there are no "game wreckers" on that D. They do have a bunch of pass rushers though. 

[jletha]

27 minutes ago, dock581 said:

While Tua has been red hot and Hill and Waddle are devastating weapons it would not surprise me if the Fish are scheming to primarily use their running game to keep Josh and our O off the field. Mostert has had big games against us and Achane seems as scary fast as Breece Hall. Mix in a few quick slants to Tyreek and we could get burned for some long plays

I agree that stopping the run will be a huge key in this game. We have had good success stopping the run at the LOS but we struggle with tackling when they get into space like on second level runs or screens. We NEED to clean this up against Miami.

[Dukestreetking]

9 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

I do not MISS it, no.

 

Was it incredibly entertaining at the time?  Like watching the '90s Knicks against anyone else in the East? Yes, of course. Like watching the '80s Sabres brawl with the Bruins? Penalty boxes absolutely bulging with humanity? Hell yeah. 

 

I wasn't cognizant enough to remember the amazing violence and gladiatorial brutality of defense (and the heightened, epic beauty of downfield offensive breakthroughs) 70s bloodsport football.

 

Was it irresponsible and salaciously exploitative? Obviously. Probably why it was so narcotically appealing. The era of head-hunting and otherwise overtly violent collisions visited upon offensive skill players who dared go downfield or over the middle was potentially a reflection of the times. 

 

Really well written, btw.

[PaattMaann]

12 minutes ago, jletha said:

I agree that stopping the run will be a huge key in this game. We have had good success stopping the run at the LOS but we struggle with tackling when they get into space like on second level runs or screens. We NEED to clean this up against Miami.

 

missed tackles have been an issue with our defense since McD has arrived (not bashing him, just stating facts)...I highly doubt that will "get cleaned up" for this game. 

[Mango]

13 hours ago, MiltonWaddams said:

The key to beating Miami is to continue down the path of the 4 man rush with a lot of disguised coverage. Blitzing a guy getting the ball out in under 2.5 seconds with the fastest weapons in the league at his disposal is a recipe for disaster 

 

I think part of it is on the Bills offense to get 7's early in the game, and leave with points as often as possible. One or two defensives stops with 2 big time eating 7 point drives will give the defense some options to get creative and put Tua in a position to push the ball down field/hold the ball a little bit longer. 

 

This one will take a complete effort from both sides of the ball.

I am excited for this match up to be a good football game as I have any in recent memory. 

 

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, loveorhatembillsfan4life said:

I read a recap where they focused on limiting the big play at all costs but it came at the expense of their run defense. 

Thanks. Do you think that's good strategy for the Bills? Bend but don't break. Then get tough inside the red zone. 

[HereComesTheReignAgain]

31 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

Jevon Holland is a top 2/3 safety in the league. He gets my vote for terrifying. 

 

But I agree there are no "game wreckers" on that D. They do have a bunch of pass rushers though. 

Bruce Smith was terrifying.  Aaron Donald is/was terrifying.  Lawrence Taylor was terrifying.  Jevon Holland is not terrifying, he is a good player.  Maybe my standard for terrifying is too strict?

[PaattMaann]

Just now, HereComesTheReignAgain said:

Bruce Smith was terrifying.  Aaron Donald is/was terrifying.  Lawrence Taylor was terrifying.  Jevon Holland is not terrifying, he is a good player.  Maybe my standard for terrifying is too strict?

 

Yea I would say your standard is too strict OR theres only 1/2 guys in the league at any moment that are terrifying...which if thats the case, then almost all the D's we face wouldnt have a terrifying player so whats your point?  : )