Week 4, Bills favored by 3 over Dolphins

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

[Bimmer323i]

Allen has accomplished quite a lot since being in the league… Tua puts up 70 points against an all time ***** defense and the media wants to put him close to the level of Allen… How do they justify that???

[Gregg]

Blue over white vs the Fins

 

 

[Bimmer323i]

1 minute ago, Bimmer323i said:

Allen has accomplished quite a lot since being in the league… Tua puts up 70 points against an all time ***** defense and the media wants to put him close to the level of Allen… How do they justify that???

Hopefully after Sunday everyone will see just what a fluke that Denver game was…. 

[Rubes]

Game-time weather looking to be perfect. 73 degrees and sunny at kickoff with negligible winds.

 

[wjag]

2 minutes ago, Rubes said:

Game-time weather looking to be perfect. 73 degrees and sunny at kickoff with negligible winds.

 

Nice.

[Nineforty]

1 hour ago, WideNine said:

Was watching another breakdown of our game against the Commanders and the analyst made a great point about a personnel grouping that the Bills have that could easily tip our hand and make it easier for teams to defend plays unless Dorsey makes some course-corrections.

He noted that Dalton Kincaid was in on 35 snaps and the Bills only ran out of those on 6 plays. If I am a DC I would have my units heavily leaning into playing pass whenever I see 86 in the game. So that is a tendency they need to correct before taking on Miami or the Bills lose a lot of what makes 12 personnel so versatile, keeping defenses off balance, and able to keep pass rushers in check.

 

 

 

 

While I don't disagree with this, I also would like to see how the breakdown works out for weeks 1 and 2.  based on week 3 alone, it would be an issue. but I need more info/sample size to conclusively say its an issue after only 3 weeks he has been in the league. 

 

I guarantee we have people looking at this sort of thing. 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

 

[Low Positive]

15 minutes ago, Bimmer323i said:

Allen has accomplished quite a lot since being in the league… Tua puts up 70 points against an all time ***** defense and the media wants to put him close to the level of Allen… How do they justify that???

Because he fits the model. He was a college STAR. Do you remember this? From that point on teams were "tanking for Tua." 

 So, Tua's success just confirms what the Media thinks that they know about him. Josh destroyed a lot of conventional wisdom about college stats translating to the NFL so they are waiting for him to regress to his 2019 form. It's just basic confirmation bias.

 

[AuntieEm]

55 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

...sir, this is a Wendys

 

But seriously, my point stands at this: I truly think that the best chance the Bills have is to play the Dolphins like we have previously. We take away the deep bomb as much as possible and force underneath throws. We will likely get annoying drives, but try to force them to settle for field goals and trust our offense.

I get what your saying.

 

I just think I rather see Tua sitting on the sidelines for much of the game.

 

The only reason I'd want the defense out there more is to rack up defensive stats but I am happy if they play so little that all the experts discount the defense as being dominant due to our offense being so dominant that it's inconceivable that a team with our qb can have a defense equally as dominant.  It's always nice to have a defense that is not taken seriously.  

[LABILLBACKER]

59 minutes ago, Bimmer323i said:

Hopefully after Sunday everyone will see just what a fluke that Denver game was…. 

The true Miami team is the one that barely beat the Pats & Chargers. 

 

[gobills404]

1 hour ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

Completely forgot he was on the PS. I’d like to see him get called up for a game and given a chance as the gadget player. Harty has been such a disappointment so far in that role.

[WideNine]

1 hour ago, Nineforty said:

While I don't disagree with this, I also would like to see how the breakdown works out for weeks 1 and 2.  based on week 3 alone, it would be an issue. but I need more info/sample size to conclusively say its an issue after only 3 weeks he has been in the league. 

 

I guarantee we have people looking at this sort of thing. 

 

Valid point - it could have been something Dorsey and the offensive staff saw they could exploit specifically with Washington.

If it is a lack of confidence having Kincaid as a blocker on running plays... then that is something they will need to address to keep defenses guessing.

 

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

2 hours ago, The Wiz said:

 

 

Ummm what?

 

Unofficially clear him?  Does he mean clear him even if he's still has symptoms?  Feel like that didn't work out for them last time they did it.

“unofficially clear him” is the word salad that McDaniel usually spews. As smart of an offensive coach as he is, he is always saying a bunch of dumb and confusing things.

[Nineforty]

8 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Valid point - it could have been something Dorsey and the offensive staff saw they could exploit specifically with Washington.

If it is a lack of confidence having Kincaid as a blocker on running plays... then that is something they will need to address to keep defenses guessing.

 

 

I wonder if factors like what we are discussing (blocking ability, pass v. Rush %, etc) goes into why it is a position that generally speaking, takes a little time for young TE's to become a full blown contributor. 

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Nineforty said:

While I don't disagree with this, I also would like to see how the breakdown works out for weeks 1 and 2.  based on week 3 alone, it would be an issue. but I need more info/sample size to conclusively say its an issue after only 3 weeks he has been in the league. 

 

I guarantee we have people looking at this sort of thing. 

 

 Yes. 

 

Kincaid played 80% or 55 of the snaps Week 1, when we rushed on 22 of the ~63 offensive snaps.  So I guarantee he was in on more than 6 rushing snaps, because Maths.

 

Kincaid played only 60% (42) of the 78 offensive snaps Week 2.  This number is lower largely because we were resting some starters for ~12-15% of the snaps.  But we rushed 35 times, so I'm pretty sure he was in on more than 6 of those (can't prove it with Math though).

 

The same arithmetic about taking out starters last week.  We took out starters for the last ~14-16% of the 68 offensive snaps, so Kincaid's 51% of the snaps (35 snaps) reflect this.  Sherfield got 46% of the snaps (31), though, so clearly he was in there about 30% of the time, 20 snaps, when we weren't resting starters. 

 

He is a better run blocker than Kincaid at this point, so it makes sense to put him in on run plays.  But he also can catch pretty nicely, so it would be worth asking how many of the 20 "starter" plays Sherfield was in on, were pass plays?  If they ONLY put Sherfield in on run plays, that would be a big tell.

[Success]

I watched a lot of the 2nd half of that Broncos game. That team 100% gave up. There was no effort.

 

I love that Miami is the hyped team coming into this - and that our team doesn't have to play in the stifling. heat.

 

There have been some games where I thought McD was at the top of his craft, and really designed a perfect defense for the opponent. The Ravens playoff game comes to mind.  I've got a hunch on this one. I think that Phins offense comes back down to earth this weekend and the Bills win by 10+.

 

 

[WideNine]

16 minutes ago, Nineforty said:

I wonder if factors like what we are discussing (blocking ability, pass v. Rush %, etc) goes into why it is a position that generally speaking, takes a little time for young TE's to become a full blown contributor. 

 

That is probably an element to this.

I can get behind the club going after a TE in the draft who runs good routes, can get open, and has great hands, then expect they will need to coach up the blocking piece. I do have faith in Kromer and Boras to get er' done. I hope to see a noticeable trend towards more balanced snaps for him between run and pass. Always felt you have to learn by doing, but we will see how they handle that spit with his offensive snaps this weekend.

 

 

 

[Goin Breakdown]

26 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

They say the best defense for Miamis style offense is a good shrill scream. Right? No?