Week 4, Bills favored by 3 over Dolphins

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

9 minutes ago, Dan said:

Gotta agree.   It seems a bit ridiculous to have the Bills favored given the current situation.  All I can figure is that both teams are fairly even statistically, even with the 70pt finplosion.   
 

This is easily, the early season game of the year. Huge swing in divisional standing based on who wins. Huge confidence boost either way.  I think ultimately, come December, the outcome will matter less.  But for momentum going into October..its a massive.  I expect a dog fight, back and forth slug fest type of game. Miami wants to prove they’re the real deal… the Bills are the Bills.  They don’t loose easy. 

the way I look at it is, one, they're at home and two, if you look at the fins first two games they were not barn burner wins. one win by two points and the other by 7.  the 70 points in the denver game were against a team that should of never suited up and laid down from kick off until the final gun. 

 

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by DaBillsFanSince1973
two points

[starrymessenger]

2 hours ago, boyst said:

he's been ripping through his reads very quickly. he's becoming a very good quarterback.

Except for now being healthy Tua looks to me to be pretty much the same player he was last year. To me the real difference is in the O-line play, which so far this year is vastly improved under new line coach Butch Barry. A little odd perhaps in that Barry was the line coach in Denver last year where he was fired after giving up more sacks than anyone else. Hopefully he soon returns to form.
Connor Williams and Robert Hunt have been playing lights out and now it looks as though their best O-lineman LT T. Armstead is back. I don't see where they have addressed their left guard and right tackle problems in terms of personnel changes (Isaiah Wynn?) so maybe it's mostly about players maturing and adapting Barry's more aggressive mindset and system. Apparently in the past their O-line philosophy was more for each lineman to beat the guy in front of him whereas Barry has them playing together in a scheme that coordinates with the overall objectives of the particular play design. 

Im pretty confident that the Bills will put up points enough to win. What I'd like to see is for Bills front to at least pressure Tua a lot more than the opposition has been able to in the Finn's first three games. That's the key to me. Whatever else we may do in the way of defensive sets and disguised coverages, that needs to happen. McD is pretty good in blitzing selectively and I think that would help too although pick your spots because Tua made the blitz happy Broncos pay. 
 

The Bills improved D-line versus the Finn's improved O-line is the most important match up imo, and it may say a lot about where these teams wind up in the AFCE.

[Wayne Arnold]

If you can take away Tua's first read and/or force him to throw outside the numbers then you can shut this offense down.

 

The tricky part is doing those two things, as McDaniel's schemes make it extremely challenging.

 

 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Wayne Arnold

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Lost said:

Jets were the first real test

Correct

[boyst]

44 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

If you can take away Tua's first read and/or force him to throw outside the numbers then you can shut this offense down.

 

The tricky part is doing those two things, as McDaniel's schemes make it extremely challenging.

 

 

this season more than last he is getting to his second and 3rd read very quickly. he is very, very quick at processing right now.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

https://twitter.com/TJDMCR/status/1706369657924382725?s=20

Edited September 26, 2023 by Pine Barrens Mafia

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

[TheBrownBear]

6 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

I thought Miami had the better of the play in the night game at Buffalo. They deserved to win that one just like the Bills deserved to win the first game. So, 1-1 is probably how it should have played out. Both teams won the games they deserved to lose.

Really? I thought that was an even matchup, but we did outgain them by 40 yards.  They ran the ball slightly better than us, but much of that was Mostert's big run.  My recollection was that we played a poor third quarter, but otherwise controlled them.

 

The first game we dominated them.  Outgained them by close to 300 yards.  We just made too many mistakes and wilted in the heat.  We were clearly the better team last year in our matchups against them.  I think they might have closed the gap, so I expect this season's games to be more like that December matchup for sure.  

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Activate Elam, have him get hands on Hill immediately off the snap and have someone over the top on him. Send 5 at Tua every down, but from every direction, formation possible. 

Sorry, no one gets credit for playing the Bears or Broncos this year lol

Send 5 on every down while having 2 guys in Tyreek?  😱 

 

I like the elam idea, but doing the same thing on every play will get us torched.  It’s all about confusion imo.  If they know what we’re doing, it’ll be easy to counter.  Like rushing 5 every down, they’ll screen us to death.  Quick hitters all day.  Tyreek isn’t their only weapon.  

[Gregg]

5 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

Really? I thought that was an even matchup, but we did outgain them by 40 yards.  They ran the ball slightly better than us, but much of that was Mostert's big run.  My recollection was that we played a poor third quarter, but otherwise controlled them.

 

The first game we dominated them.  Outgained them by close to 300 yards.  We just made too many mistakes and wilted in the heat.  We were clearly the better team last year in our matchups against them.  I think they might have closed the gap, so I expect this season's games to be more like that December matchup for sure.  

 

The playoff game I thought the Bills were going to blow them out. It sure looked that way for the first 20 minutes of the game. But turnovers and sloppy play by the Bills allowed the Dolphins to get back in the game. To their credit they did. I think this week's game will be like the Dolphins - Chargers game from week one. Back and forth game with lead changes throughout. Could be the last one with the ball wins. 

[k2mountain]

McDermott's accomplished defense versus McDaniel's gimmick offense ... the game is going to be epic. A real cage fight.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, k2mountain said:

McDermott's accomplished defense versus McDaniel's gimmick offense ... the game is going to be epic. A real cage fight.

I wouldn't call it a gimmick offense tbh

 

It looks very much like Niners in that they are able to maximize productivity of their personnel 

 

I would call it extremely efficient in that sense

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

28 minutes ago, k2mountain said:

McDermott's accomplished defense versus McDaniel's gimmick offense ... the game is going to be epic. A real cage fight.

 

Gimmick has a negative connotation.  I'm not about to second guess someone who's putting up yardage like this.  

[Shortchaz]

I wonder how von miller is doing 

[Scott7975]

4 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I don’t even know how to define tua anymore lol. If you take his quick rhythm throws away he’s definitely below average but that is seemingly near impossible to do so far.  Their gimmick definitely gets less effective in the red zone where tyreek can’t beat anybody deep anymore but teams still seem intent on leaving light boxes out there on that part of the field.  I’d probably do the McDermott special of keeping everything in front of me until hitting the red zone then I’d start to load up against the run. Teams are just giving them free points flooding the field with dbs…they are picking the wrong poison in ‘pick your poison’ imo 

 

gotta make tua go through progressions and hold the ball in the red zone.  The dude has straight up tunnel vision when his first read isn’t open and he’s gotta reset in the pocket…he seems athletic but I don’t think he can keep his eyes downfield when he’s gotta avoid pass rushers.  Props to McDaniel for essentially gameplanning out tuas weaknesses 

 

You need to get good middle penetration to make him look and move.

[Scott7975]

 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, Wayne Arnold said:

If you can take away Tua's first read and/or force him to throw outside the numbers then you can shut this offense down.

 

The tricky part is doing those two things, as McDaniel's schemes make it extremely challenging.

 

 

 

They've been motioning hill a ton, and stacking him as well to avoid press coverage and force your defense to adjust to that.  The adjustment has been messing up teams run fits.  I hope we continue to play physical as i think thats a way to get to someone like miami.  

[Big Turk]

7 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

 

What's crazy is I am willing to bet those other guys have far more pass rush attempts than Oliver does based on the rotation we use and how they have rested starters the last 2 games...and the fact the Raiders only had 39 total offensive snaps the entire game.

Edited September 26, 2023 by Big Turk

[fergie's ire]

12 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

That's great that Oliver has so many pressures, but it's also interesting to see Jonathan Allen near the top of that list and think that he did not give the Bills a lot of trouble.  Another sign of the great job this line is doing and that they are getting better (given how they struggled against Williams).

[Bangarang]

1 hour ago, k2mountain said:

McDermott's accomplished defense versus McDaniel's gimmick offense ... the game is going to be epic. A real cage fight.

What’s the gimmick with McDaniel’s offense?