Week 4, Bills favored by 3 over Dolphins

[Simon]

  On 9/30/2023 at 3:54 AM, Mynamemike said:

I’m getting the same feeling about this game as I did the first time we faced Lamar and the Ravens when he first came on the scene.  We ended up shutting him down and set the blueprint for how to beat him.  I expect them to get yards but not let them get touchdowns.  We need to limit the touchdowns and we need to be effective in the red zone on offense,  it’s gonna be a fun game to watch p.

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I agree with this but don't love the Lamar comparison.

Tua could take 12 concussions this weekend and still have 10x the processing power of Jackson.

[Dr. Who]

  On 9/30/2023 at 1:35 PM, Simon said:

 

I agree with this but don't love the Lamar comparison.

Tua could take 12 concussions this weekend and still have 10x the processing power of Jackson.

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I think you're over-estimating Jackson. Fella is a Commodore 64.

[Process]

  On 9/30/2023 at 10:32 AM, k2mountain said:

Has the line changed since Poyer went down?

 

It seems to me to more of a Pick'em.

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There isn't a safety in the league that would single handedly move a point spread

[Simon]

  On 9/30/2023 at 1:44 PM, Process said:

There isn't a safety in the league that would single handedly move a point spread

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You sure about that?

A safety is worth two points!

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

NFL Week 4 picks: Dolphins, Bills meet in huge AFC East clash

nfl-picks week-4

But the game of the weekend has to be the clash of the undefeated and scalding Miami Dolphins against the AFC East rival Buffalo Bills in Orchard Park, New York, a rematch of last season's wild-card showdown – one that Fins QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) missed. Hot as Miami (3-0) is, fresh off a 70-point outburst, the Bills (2-1) are surging, too, winning their past two games by a combined score of 75-13.

 

 

Edited September 30, 2023 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[Franco_92]

  On 9/30/2023 at 1:17 PM, Beck Water said:

 

Interesting analogy.  One factor in the 2019 loss to the Ravens (and our 2022 loss to the Dolphins) was that our defense did a good job containing their offense *most* of the day, but that we couldn't muster enough offense ourselves to counter.  So, mistakes played an outsized role.  The Ravens scored a TD after a strip sack of Josh Allen on 3rd and 8 gave them the ball at our 24 yd line.  Scored 5 plays later. 

 

So avoiding turnovers by our offense (and maybe generating 1-2 on defense) is going to be key.

 

I'll just add that it hasn't been uncommon for our D in past years to take a game to decode an offense.   However, I'm not sure how different the Dolphins offense really is from last year.  They had Morris, Waddle and Hill last season when we played them.

 

 

I thought when a team played at home, being favored by 2.5-3 points was a "Pick'em".

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For years now they have been giving home teams ~1.5 points instead of 3

[Beck Water]

  On 9/30/2023 at 2:28 PM, arcane said:

For years now they have been giving home teams ~1.5 points instead of 3

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Seriously?  Oh well I thought several of our knowledgeable folks confirmed 3.  🤷‍♂️

Edited September 30, 2023 by Beck Water

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

 

[Gman10]

Anyone else super nervous for tomorrow? Dolphins have looked incredible, but they really haven't faced anyone notable this season.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

  On 9/30/2023 at 3:38 PM, Gman10 said:

Anyone else super nervous for tomorrow? Dolphins have looked incredible, but they really haven't faced anyone notable this season.

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[Pine Barrens Mafia]

  On 9/30/2023 at 3:38 PM, Gman10 said:

Anyone else super nervous for tomorrow? Dolphins have looked incredible, but they really haven't faced anyone notable this season.

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cool as a cucumber here.

 

not worried about facing the 2x september champs

 

[sven233]

  On 9/30/2023 at 3:38 PM, Gman10 said:

Anyone else super nervous for tomorrow? Dolphins have looked incredible, but they really haven't faced anyone notable this season.

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Tomorrow is a little weird for me.  I'm not really super nervous or excited.  Of course I want to win the game.  I want to win every game.  But I can't help but feel that no matter what happens tomorrow, this won't be the most important game we have to play against this team this season.  Win by 20 or lose by 20, I just think in the grand scheme of things, we're going to see a more meaningful game against them down the road.  That said, I hope we stomp them.

[Pokebball]

  On 9/30/2023 at 3:47 PM, sven233 said:

 

Tomorrow is a little weird for me.  I'm not really super nervous or excited.  Of course I want to win the game.  I want to win every game.  But I can't help but feel that no matter what happens tomorrow, this won't be the most important game we have to play against this team this season.  Win by 20 or lose by 20, I just think in the grand scheme of things, we're going to see a more meaningful game against them down the road.  That said, I hope we stomp them.

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  Quote

While we certainly can go into Miami and beat them, I don't want to have to do that to avoid a sweep. Let's win this one at home and avoid that.

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[DaBillsFanSince1973]

  On 9/30/2023 at 3:43 PM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

cool as a cucumber here.

 

not worried about facing the 2x september champs

 

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some will find it wrong or overly confident but I have felt real good about the bills chances in this game and looking forward to shutting up all the naysayers.

 

 37

 

  24

[Warcodered]

  On 9/30/2023 at 3:43 PM, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

cool as a cucumber here.

 

not worried about facing the 2x september champs

 

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It is October tomorrow so it's about time for the carriage to turn into a pumpkin.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

[QCity]

  On 9/30/2023 at 1:09 PM, SCBills said:

Lines don’t change because a Safety isnt playing.   Just like the line doesn’t change because a Dolphins pass rusher isn’t playing.  
 

These seem like big things, and they can be, but unless you’re dealing with a wave of injuries depleting a position group as a whole, fans usually overestimate the non-QB effect on a game’s line of a missing player or two.  
 

I do believe Von was a line-affecting loss last year, just like Chris Jones impact on the Chiefs defense is probably worth something in Vegas.   But those non-QB players who can move the line a point or two are probably under 15-20 across the entire league … Poyer and Phillips aren’t any of them. 

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Absolutely.

 

And if you are one of those people on the first few pages of this thread that thought the line was going to move from -3 to Even without a major injury -- just delete your sportsbook apps from your phone right now. Trust me.

[GoBills808]

  On 9/30/2023 at 5:19 PM, QCity said:

 

Absolutely.

 

And if you are one of those people on the first few pages of this thread that thought the line was going to move from -3 to Even without a major injury -- just delete your sportsbook apps from your phone right now. Trust me.

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Says the guy on Saturday lol

[Beck Water]

  On 9/30/2023 at 1:35 PM, Simon said:

 

I agree with this but don't love the Lamar comparison.

Tua could take 12 concussions this weekend and still have 10x the processing power of Jackson.

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It's not the processing power that's the analogy IMHO.  In 2019, when the Ravens were rolling teams right and left, scoring 57, 37, 49, 41, 45, 42 points, Lamar wasn't asked to have that much processing power.  Roman's offense used a lot of eye candy to distract and confuse defensive coverage, and then put defenders in conflict  Keep, Run, throw to the TE over the middle.  Once the defender hesitated in conflict, make them miss with blazing speed.

 

Now keep-and-run isn't one of Tua's best threats, and he's running a more complex passing game, but it seems to me there are similar elements otherwise - the eye candy distraction pre and post snap, the scheme to put defenders in conflict "who do I take?" and to get the defenders to interfere with each other.  And of course, the "miss me, it's Shoesoles and #######s for you!" blazing speed.

 

I was looking for some of the quotes I read somewhere from Milano and Bernard etc. and can't find it, but it was all about how Miami schemes try to get defenders to interfere with each other "they want to bunch you up and get you to run into each other" kind of stuff.  Baltimore did similar things I believe.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

I will say that the one thing McD is really good at it is scheming up an antidote to a high-powered offense. He has done it with KC and Baltimore, which became the blueprint for how other teams then defended them. I have a feeling he will have some tricks up his sleeve.