Zack Moss revisited

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Meanwhile, the leading rushers in those years:

2022 Josh Jacobs

2021 Jonathan Taylor

2020 Derrick Henry

2019 Derrick Henry

2018 Ezekiel Elliott

Missed playoffs

Missed playoffs

1st round exit

Lost in AFCCG to better QB

Second round exit.

16 minutes ago, Dopey said:

But Allen ain't no Mahomes. 

No he isn't. Doesn't mean we need our "Thurman" like all the Bills fans living in the past believe.

22 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

As a Bills fan from the 60s, I encourage you to not generalize.  It's true that I loved watching OJ and Thurman run with the ball. 

 

But this offseason, I was against spending money on any of the big-name backs available.  I'm happy with our backfield as it is.  It's a good ROI on the cap dollars spent.  And, with Josh as our QB and Dorsey as our coordinator, we're clearly a pass-first team in a pass-first era.  

 

Andy Reid is even older than me and he presides over one of the best passing offenses we've ever seen.   It's a fallacy that older people are generally stuck in the past.  

Of course, not all Bills fans from the 60s believe this. But I would guess that the large majority of fans that push so hard for more rushing are older fans, not younger fans. 20 and 30 year old kids ain't waxing poetically about 40 carries a game.

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

22 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

We made a business decision. 

He needed a fresh start anyway, as I said at the time when I predicted he would find some success with his new team.

 

Dude was so far into his head he was tripping over his own feet and looked nothing like his college tape. The Bills had to move on. And I'm no apologist for the FO.

[The Frankish Reich]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Missed playoffs

Missed playoffs

1st round exit

Lost in AFCCG to better QB

Second round exit.

Exactly my point.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

That's cute and all, but regular season rushing totals mean very little.

 

To completely ignore that most of those teams leaned on the run game to various amounts come playoffs is disingenuous.

 

Want to know what you get without at minimum a respectable run game come January? A one dimensional offense that is suspectable to being key on and slowed by the weather. 

What is your definition of "at a minimum respectable?"

[LABILLBACKER]

With Josh as our qb, I would never want us to even consider running 40-45% of the time.  But the way we're distributing the ball to Cook, Murray & Harris so far seems to be a perfect mix. Singletary & Moss we're way too similar in speed & style to allow a change of pace.

[Zag20]

1 hour ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

He needed a fresh start anyway, as I said at the time when I predicted he would find some success with his new team.

 

Dude was so far into his head he was tripping over his own feet and looked nothing like his college tape. The Bills had to move on. And I'm no apologist for the FO.

I think there are certain players who didn’t really want to play in Buffalo and their performance indicates that. I put Moss and Wyatt Teller in this category. Gilmore a little bit also, but he did perform here.

[BuffaloBillyG]

15 minutes ago, FireChans said:

What is your definition of "at a minimum respectable?"

Ok, fair question. So I'm going to do a bit of research. This will likely be lengthy as I want to pull the full scope of what I mean here. Let's start with where each team was ranked during the regular season in rushing:

 

Eagles- #3 ranked rush offense

Patriots- #5 ranked rush offense

Chiefs- #24 ranked rush offense

Buccaneers - #28 ranked rush offense

Rams- #25 ranked rush offense

Chiefs- #20 ranked rush offense

 

As we can tell, even though those Eagle and Patriot teams didn't have a dominate #1 runner, the run game was a huge part of their season.  However both teams had a fair amount of RBBC. 

 

Both years the Chiefs ranked far down the list. That's the Mahomes factor...agreed? He throws a lot. 

 

The Rams present somewhat of an anomaly. Where a lot of teams may hand off to a RB, the Rams (especially the Super Bowl season) would toss to Cooper Kupp in the short areas. Schematically, these were essentially their version of running plays. But the totals go in the passing column so it skewed the numbers IMO.

 

So now that we know where each team ranked during the season I want to take a game by game approach and see how the RB position was leaned on in the post season.

 

Chiefs:

Pacheco:

12 car 95yd 1TD

10 car 26 yd

15 car 76 yd 1 TD (McKinnon chipped in another 34 on just 4 carries)

 

Was a receiving threat as well. Was truly special in the post season where his violent run style paid off numerous times for tough first downs. I would call this production respectable. Teams had to account for Pacheco at all times and had to play the threat of the run as well as the pass.

 

Rams:

Michael/Akers

13 car 58 yd/17 car 55yd

1 car 4 yd/ 24 car 48 yd

10 car 16 yd/13 car 48 yd

 

Akers coming off the injury cut into Michael a bit. Rams offense is also Kupp heavy and many passes they throw are an extension of the run game.  

 

Buccaneers:

Fournette:

19 car 93 yd 1 TD

17 car 63 yd (Ronald Jones chipped in 13/62)

12 car 55 yd 1 TD

12 car 89 yd 1TD (Jones 12/61)

 

Full stop, the Buccaneers do not win the Super Bowl this year without Fournette. As dominant of a post season run as I've ever seen.

 

Chiefs:

Damien Williams

12 car 42 yd 2TD

17 car 45 yd 1 TD

17 car 104 yd 1 TD 

 

WIlliams also chipped in  11 catches for 94 yards and 2 TDs during the playoff run. 

 

Patriots:

Michael:

24 car 129yds 3 TD

29 car 113yd 2 TD (Burkhead with 12/41/2TDs)

18 car 94 yd 1TD

 

Yet another DOMINANT post season by a RB leading to the Super Bowl Championship. Scored the only TD of the Super Bowl as well.

 

Eagles:

Ajayi/Blount

12 car 54/ 9 car 19 yd 1 TD

18 car 73 yd/ 6car 21 yd 1TD

9 car 57 yd/ 14car 90 yd 1TD

 

This was more a 2 headed rush attack in the playoffs as I have shown. Blount with a TD each game. 

 

While NONE of the players listed above here had huge regular seasons, they all played key roles come January in their team hoisting the Lombardi. 

 

And to tie it to the thread; this is the type of player Moss is. He's not a superstar. He's likely not going to lead the NFL in yards. But he CAN be a guy that can and will go off over a 3 or 4 game stretch. 

 

With the pounding that the Average starting NFL RB takes, by game 17 or 18 of the season their bodies are shot. That's why IMO you rarely see the Henry's, Barkley's or CMC's of the NFL dominate the post season. But those more scarcely used backs are fresher come post season.  Contrary to popular belief, in the post season RBs DO matter. However RB depth is more important than having an elite one.

 

 

 

[BigAl2526]

On 9/23/2023 at 4:33 AM, Sgt. Ski said:

A better line

I agree.  This is the first year in several seasons that the Bills have what I would describe as an above average offensive line.  For years Buffalo running backs never had holes to hit in the middle of the line.  They coupled that with running backs who didn't have the speed to get outside.  I haven't watched, but I'm guessing that most of Moss's recent yardage has been the tackles.  He is tough but lacks speed and like Singletary needs holes inside to run through.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Ok, fair question. So I'm going to do a bit of research. This will likely be lengthy as I want to pull the full scope of what I mean here. Let's start with where each team was ranked during the regular season in rushing:

 

Eagles- #3 ranked rush offense

Patriots- #5 ranked rush offense

Chiefs- #24 ranked rush offense

Buccaneers - #28 ranked rush offense

Rams- #25 ranked rush offense

Chiefs- #20 ranked rush offense

 

As we can tell, even though those Eagle and Patriot teams didn't have a dominate #1 runner, the run game was a huge part of their season.  However both teams had a fair amount of RBBC. 

 

Both years the Chiefs ranked far down the list. That's the Mahomes factor...agreed? He throws a lot. 

 

The Rams present somewhat of an anomaly. Where a lot of teams may hand off to a RB, the Rams (especially the Super Bowl season) would toss to Cooper Kupp in the short areas. Schematically, these were essentially their version of running plays. But the totals go in the passing column so it skewed the numbers IMO.

 

So now that we know where each team ranked during the season I want to take a game by game approach and see how the RB position was leaned on in the post season.

 

Chiefs:

Pacheco:

12 car 95yd 1TD

10 car 26 yd

15 car 76 yd 1 TD (McKinnon chipped in another 34 on just 4 carries)

 

Was a receiving threat as well. Was truly special in the post season where his violent run style paid off numerous times for tough first downs. I would call this production respectable. Teams had to account for Pacheco at all times and had to play the threat of the run as well as the pass.

 

Rams:

Michael/Akers

13 car 58 yd/17 car 55yd

1 car 4 yd/ 24 car 48 yd

10 car 16 yd/13 car 48 yd

 

Akers coming off the injury cut into Michael a bit. Rams offense is also Kupp heavy and many passes they throw are an extension of the run game.  

 

Buccaneers:

Fournette:

19 car 93 yd 1 TD

17 car 63 yd (Ronald Jones chipped in 13/62)

12 car 55 yd 1 TD

12 car 89 yd 1TD (Jones 12/61)

 

Full stop, the Buccaneers do not win the Super Bowl this year without Fournette. As dominant of a post season run as I've ever seen.

 

Chiefs:

Damien Williams

12 car 42 yd 2TD

17 car 45 yd 1 TD

17 car 104 yd 1 TD 

 

WIlliams also chipped in  11 catches for 94 yards and 2 TDs during the playoff run. 

 

Patriots:

Michael:

24 car 129yds 3 TD

29 car 113yd 2 TD (Burkhead with 12/41/2TDs)

18 car 94 yd 1TD

 

Yet another DOMINANT post season by a RB leading to the Super Bowl Championship. Scored the only TD of the Super Bowl as well.

 

Eagles:

Ajayi/Blount

12 car 54/ 9 car 19 yd 1 TD

18 car 73 yd/ 6car 21 yd 1TD

9 car 57 yd/ 14car 90 yd 1TD

 

This was more a 2 headed rush attack in the playoffs as I have shown. Blount with a TD each game. 

 

While NONE of the players listed above here had huge regular seasons, they all played key roles come January in their team hoisting the Lombardi. 

 

And to tie it to the thread; this is the type of player Moss is. He's not a superstar. He's likely not going to lead the NFL in yards. But he CAN be a guy that can and will go off over a 3 or 4 game stretch. 

 

With the pounding that the Average starting NFL RB takes, by game 17 or 18 of the season their bodies are shot. That's why IMO you rarely see the Henry's, Barkley's or CMC's of the NFL dominate the post season. But those more scarcely used backs are fresher come post season.  Contrary to popular belief, in the post season RBs DO matter. However RB depth is more important than having an elite one.

 

 

 

I'm going to be a little less lengthy.

 

Bills playoff rushing from 2020-2022.

 

2020:

21 car for 96 yards, 1 TD

16 car for 32 yards

18 for 142 yards (loss)

 

Our best rushing day coincided with a loss. Looks respectable.

 

2021:

29 car for 174 and 2 TD

24 for 109 and 1 TD (loss)

 

Very good playoff. Much higher than respectable. L.

 

2022:

26 car for 107 and 1 TD

19 for 64 and 1 TD (loss)

 

Probably the worst rushing year, but we got smacked in the mouth by the Bengals. L.

 

The point is that some teams make rushing more of their identity. The Eagles and Pats especially. But the bottom line is both teams won the Superbowl in those years because their QB's outplayed the opposition.

 

Teams run the football. Some more than others. Is it necessary to run a little bit?  Yeah. But that's pretty much it.  The level of respectability has been present in Buffalo enough.

 

As far as Zack Moss, I'll believe he can string together 3-4 awesome games when he does it once in his career.

[BuffaloBillyG]

15 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I'm going to be a little less lengthy.

 

Bills playoff rushing from 2020-2022.

 

2020:

21 car for 96 yards, 1 TD

16 car for 32 yards

18 for 142 yards (loss)

 

Our best rushing day coincided with a loss. Looks respectable.

 

2021:

29 car for 174 and 2 TD

24 for 109 and 1 TD (loss)

 

Very good playoff. Much higher than respectable. L.

 

2022:

26 car for 107 and 1 TD

19 for 64 and 1 TD (loss)

 

Probably the worst rushing year, but we got smacked in the mouth by the Bengals. L.

 

The point is that some teams make rushing more of their identity. The Eagles and Pats especially. But the bottom line is both teams won the Superbowl in those years because their QB's outplayed the opposition.

 

Teams run the football. Some more than others. Is it necessary to run a little bit?  Yeah. But that's pretty much it.  The level of respectability has been present in Buffalo enough.

 

As far as Zack Moss, I'll believe he can string together 3-4 awesome games when he does it once in his career.

In your attempt to be less lengthy I feel you fall far short of the mark.

 

I not only provided the stats, but the context of the way the top RB played into the outcome. You combined all the rushing stats into one big heap. Of all those rushing yards...how many were by Allen? Two TOTALLY different scopes of conversation. 

 

I guess I could go back and add in all the rushing yards from other backs, QBs and WRs as well, but that wasn't the topic of conversation. Tell ya what, I'll even do the bookwork for you here with the same scope I did the others.

 

2020:

Moss/Singletary:

7 car 21 yds/ 3 car 21yds

0 car 0 yds/ 7 car 25yds

0 car 0 yds / 6 car 17 yds

 

Our top 2 backs combined for 23 carries 84 yds and no TDs the ENTIRE playoffs.  The rest came from a few TJ Yeldon carries and Allen. That's not even close to how you presented it. What is that? That's putting way too much on Allen leading to a playoff exit. 

 

2021: 

Singletary:

16/81/2TDs (The NE "Perfect game")

10/26/1TD (13 seconds)

 

Well, what can be derived from here? Game 1 of our playoff run we actually presented a ground game that had to be respected. Result: perfect game. Game 2: We took a step back from the ground game. Put too much on Allen to be perfect (and he really was) and didn't control the clock at all. A few more run plays could VERY well have resulted in zero seconds for Mahomes to come back. Surely, 2022 will tell a different tale, right?

 

2022:

Singletary/Cook

10 car 48yds/12 car 39yds 1td

6 car 25yds/5 car 13 yds

 

So, granted, Buffalo fell behind KC in the second game and only attempting 11 RB rushes. This is, also further proof that come playoff time you cannot be 1 dimensional. 

 

 

 

In those 7 playoff games Buffalo has what I would consider a respectable run game through their RBs twice. (Both times a WIN) There have been games where Allen has been Superman and added yards on the ground be it designed runs or scrambling. 

 

As you can see there is a HUGE difference in the playoffs between what the Super Bowl winning teams did and what we have been doing. 

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

In your attempt to be less lengthy I feel you fall far short of the mark.

 

I not only provided the stats, but the context of the way the top RB played into the outcome. You combined all the rushing stats into one big heap. Of all those rushing yards...how many were by Allen? Two TOTALLY different scopes of conversation. 

 

I guess I could go back and add in all the rushing yards from other backs, QBs and WRs as well, but that wasn't the topic of conversation. Tell ya what, I'll even do the bookwork for you here with the same scope I did the others.

 

2020:

Moss/Singletary:

7 car 21 yds/ 3 car 21yds

0 car 0 yds/ 7 car 25yds

0 car 0 yds / 6 car 17 yds

 

Our top 2 backs combined for 23 carries 84 yds and no TDs the ENTIRE playoffs.  The rest came from a few TJ Yeldon carries and Allen. That's not even close to how you presented it. What is that? That's putting way too much on Allen leading to a playoff exit. 

 

2021: 

Singletary:

16/81/2TDs (The NE "Perfect game")

10/26/1TD (13 seconds)

 

Well, what can be derived from here? Game 1 of our playoff run we actually presented a ground game that had to be respected. Result: perfect game. Game 2: We took a step back from the ground game. Put too much on Allen to be perfect (and he really was) and didn't control the clock at all. A few more run plays could VERY well have resulted in zero seconds for Mahomes to come back. Surely, 2022 will tell a different tale, right?

 

2022:

Singletary/Cook

10 car 48yds/12 car 39yds 1td

6 car 25yds/5 car 13 yds

 

So, granted, Buffalo fell behind KC in the second game and only attempting 11 RB rushes. This is, also further proof that come playoff time you cannot be 1 dimensional. 

 

 

 

In those 7 playoff games Buffalo has what I would consider a respectable run game through their RBs twice. (Both times a WIN) There have been games where Allen has been Superman and added yards on the ground be it designed runs or scrambling. 

 

As you can see there is a HUGE difference in the playoffs between what the Super Bowl winning teams did and what we have been doing. 

Woah woah woah. Allen’s rushing is rushing. You don’t get to say that the Rams and Chiefs short passing game is kinda like their rushing game, then say Allen’s rushing game isn’t a part of our rushing game. 
 

I call foul.

 

Also you can’t say Zack Moss can be this playoff difference maker then post his goose eggs over the years in the playoffs.

Edited September 26, 2023 by FireChans

[BuffaloBillyG]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Woah woah woah. Allen’s rushing is rushing. You don’t get to say that the Rams and Chiefs short passing game is kinda like their rushing game, then say Allen’s rushing game isn’t a part of our rushing game. 
 

I call foul.

 

Also you can’t say Zack Moss can be this playoff difference maker then post his goose eggs over the years in the playoffs.

The difference is I didn't add the Rams and Chiefs yardage into the equation as the topic was RB play. Nor did I add WRs who gained yards on runs. It was all about the RB as per the original topic of conversation. 

 

As far as Moss's "goose eggs", IIRC, he was injured after the first playoff game. Didn't even play in the next 2 and TJ Yeldon was active. Yet again, context is very important when discussing stats.

[Buffalo716]

2 hours ago, Zag20 said:

I think there are certain players who didn’t really want to play in Buffalo and their performance indicates that. I put Moss and Wyatt Teller in this category. Gilmore a little bit also, but he did perform here.

Wyatt Teller was a late round pick that had no reason not to like Buffalo

 

Seeing as we were the team that gave him his shot

 

He wasn't great here..  he got beat out by multiple journey men and it lit a fire under his ass when we traded him

 

He also went to a scheme that fit him

 

It's literally b******* to say he didn't want to play Buffalo... There's nothing that shows that 

[FireChans]

22 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

The difference is I didn't add the Rams and Chiefs yardage into the equation as the topic was RB play. Nor did I add WRs who gained yards on runs. It was all about the RB as per the original topic of conversation. 

 

As far as Moss's "goose eggs", IIRC, he was injured after the first playoff game. Didn't even play in the next 2 and TJ Yeldon was active. Yet again, context is very important when discussing stats.

Ultimately, I disagree with any analysis that disregards QB rushing because:

 

1. Most of the best QB’s in the NFL are so because partly because of their mobility

 

2. Nothing puts more stress on a defense than a QB who can pass or tuck it and take off for 20 yards

 

I would rather have Josh with his mobility now and a rotating cast of characters at RB over Josh with Brady’s mobility and the best RB in football. All day, everyday. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

12 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Ultimately, I disagree with any analysis that disregards QB rushing because:

 

1. Most of the best QB’s in the NFL are so because partly because of their mobility

 

2. Nothing puts more stress on a defense than a QB who can pass or tuck it and take off for 20 yards

 

I would rather have Josh with his mobility now and a rotating cast of characters at RB over Josh with Brady’s mobility and the best RB in football. All day, everyday. 

Great. Good to know. That however, wasn't the topic. Let's recap so you can catch up. I'll type slow. 

 

-You presented the regular season rush rankings of the last few Super Bowl winners. 

- I said that had nothing to do with how teams approach running back usage in the post season.

-I provided a detailed breakdown of every Super Bowl winner's primary RB usage in every playoff game and Super Bowl they played in that season to back up my claim.

-Your presented something in the general direction of that for the Bills only with zero context or sticking to the same format. Then tried moving the goalposts.

-I gave the same RB breakdown for the Bills under the same conditions.

- You ignored and moved the goal posts.

 

At this point I'm just going to move on from this topic with you. Can lead a horse to water and all...but hey, have a great day and if you have any further input...eh, I won't be reading it anyway.

[Zag20]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

Wyatt Teller was a late round pick that had no reason not to like Buffalo

 

Seeing as we were the team that gave him his shot

 

He wasn't great here..  he got beat out by multiple journey men and it lit a fire under his ass when we traded him

 

He also went to a scheme that fit him

 

It's literally b******* to say he didn't want to play Buffalo... There's nothing that shows that 

His comments when we was traded indicated he was pretty excited about the trade, but that’s perhaps due to the opportunity that lay ahead of him. 

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, Zag20 said:

His comments when we was traded indicated he was pretty excited about the trade, but that’s perhaps due to the opportunity that lay ahead of him. 

There's not one player in the NFL who's riding the pine that wouldn't be excited to get traded to a team that might use them 

Edited September 26, 2023 by Buffalo716

[NoHuddleKelly12]

It’s cool OP, all I have to do is start him next week off my fantasy bench, and I can guarantee a crashing back down to earth 3 carry, -2 yards stat line for Monsieur Moss! 😀

Edited September 26, 2023 by NoHuddleKelly12

[hondo in seattle]

On 9/26/2023 at 6:46 AM, FireChans said:

Missed playoffs

Missed playoffs

1st round exit

Lost in AFCCG to better QB

Second round exit.

No he isn't. Doesn't mean we need our "Thurman" like all the Bills fans living in the past believe.

 

Of course, not all Bills fans from the 60s believe this. But I would guess that the large majority of fans that push so hard for more rushing are older fans, not younger fans. 20 and 30 year old kids ain't waxing poetically about 40 carries a game.

 

Maybe you're right.  But I always thought that the folks wanting us to sign a big-name RB were the ones who tend to deny the hard realities of the salary cap.  

As an older guy, let me quote the Stones, "You can't always get what you want."  Some people live in denial of this sad fact.  The mafiosos in denial want an expensive RB and expensive WR#2 to make our offense even more dynamic.  

 

But Beane knows what's up.  Passing is ascendant and the cap makes it impossible to get stars at every position.  So he's prioritized his cap dollars on QB, WR, DE, and CB.  I wish he'd spend a little more on the OL to protect the health of our generational QB, maximize his production, and open up some holes for our bargain-bin, yet talented, RBs. 

 

I don't know - maybe wanting to get help in the trenches is old school too.  But both Philly and KC had good OLs last season and look where they were on February 12th and we weren't.  

 

 

[Airseven]

Moss flashed. Good for him. Even though the trade for Hines didn’t work out ideally, it was a prudent move.