Zack Moss revisited

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The Buffalo Bills lead the entire NFL in yards per carry AND yards per carry by RB's last season.

 

I don't know what to tell you folks anymore........but it's comedy gold reading about how bad the Bills OL was/is at run blocking. 

 

 

 

 

Lots of folks living 40 years in the past when it comes to ideas about running the football. The league rushing leader hasn’t made the postseason since 2020.

[Rc2catch]

I chalk up his limited success in Indy simply to attempts and rhythm. I’m not going to do the homework but I’d be shocked if he hit more than 15 attempts in a game more than 2-3 times in Buffalo if that. Some guys need that flow to get going. I didn’t dislike moss and I’m happy with the trade to send him to Indy, I was a big Hines fan and was extremely disappointed with his tiny usage last year 
 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Lots of folks living 40 years in the past when it comes to ideas about running the football. The league rushing leader hasn’t made the postseason since 2020.

Yes

 

But his point was that the Bills were actually a good running team, or at least halfway decent...which they clearly weren't

 

YPA isn't a great stat (Bills were 2nd fwiw not first) to determine the quality of your rush attack/oline run blocking imo. It's a piece but I give gross yards and attempts more weight because it means you're relying on your run game (which as you state is dubious offensive football in modern context)

[Nuncha]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

We threw it all the time because we have a superstar QB and running the ball is for the Mac Jones’ of the world.

Offense needs to be balanced.

[Nephilim17]

I've read for years a narrative that Moss was/is a bruiser. I don't remember seeing much evidence of him shedding tackles the way Murray or Harris do.

Is there some highlight real of his that proves this? I remember him going north south for a few yards at a time but never consistently running through tackles.

 

Also of note, I've read his weight is anything from 223 (drafted weight) to 205, what is posted now and what the Bills said he was for a long time. If you're a slow back and only 205 pounds, that's not the chocolate and peanut butter of hard, chain-moving running.

 

Why take a back with no traits 88th overall? A head scratcher.

[GoBills808]

11 minutes ago, Nuncha said:

Offense needs to be balanced.

I'd argue that balance is way more skewed toward passing than you'd think, in terms of efficiency

 

Like 90/10 pass

 

 

[Sierra Foothills]

4 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

I've read for years a narrative that Moss was/is a bruiser. I don't remember seeing much evidence of him shedding tackles the way Murray or Harris do.

Is there some highlight real of his that proves this? I remember him going north south for a few yards at a time but never consistently running through tackles.

 

Also of note, I've read his weight is anything from 223 (drafted weight) to 205, what is posted now and what the Bills said he was for a long time. If you're a slow back and only 205 pounds, that's not the chocolate and peanut butter of hard, chain-moving running.

 

Why take a back with no traits 88th overall? A head scratcher.

 

To the bolded... good question.

 

I'm not opinionating on this video but here's every touch in last week's game against the Texans:

 

 

 

[FireChans]

25 minutes ago, Nuncha said:

Offense needs to be balanced.

No it doesn’t. Chiefs were 25th in attempts last year. Taking the ball out of your star QB’s hands is a win for the defense, always. This is dinosaur mentality. 

[Sierra Foothills]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

No it doesn’t. Chiefs were 25th in attempts last year. Taking the ball out of your star QB’s hands is a win for the defense, always. This is dinosaur mentality. 

 

I'm not trying to be an #######... this is an honest question.

 

Do you think Mahomes or Allen could win a Super Bowl in a season in which their running backs never carry the ball?

 

[Scott7975]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

It is mainly blocking and carries. The Bills oline in 2021 and 2022 was not very good at run blocking. And Moss isn't a speedy back who can get 5 or 6 carries and break one. He is more of a plodder who needs carries to get into a groove. And there is a little bit of scheme thrown in too. The Colts run a lot more from the I with the QB under centre which is a better fit to his style. The Bills are more of a shotgun team where you get the ball on a standing start and have to accelerate quickly - which less Moss's style.

this is the the answer

[zow2]

I always got the feeling Bills fans in general disliked Moss.  I thought he was decent to be honest and often wanted him to be used more.  I'm glad he's doing well.  Now that Hines is injured, (and i predict will never play for the Bills again)... I'm sure Indy fans feel like they fleeced Buffalo.

[Beck Water]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

It is mainly blocking and carries. The Bills oline in 2021 and 2022 was not very good at run blocking. And Moss isn't a speedy back who can get 5 or 6 carries and break one. He is more of a plodder who needs carries to get into a groove. And there is a little bit of scheme thrown in too. The Colts run a lot more from the I with the QB under centre which is a better fit to his style. The Bills are more of a shotgun team where you get the ball on a standing start and have to accelerate quickly - which less Moss's style.

 

Gunner has it.  Some more detail:

1) Since Reich took over in 2018, the Colts have usually been a team with a better run game than the Bills.  7th, 10th, 2nd....not so much last year until Reich got fired then they were running it down opponents throat under Saturday.  Worst 64 yds rushing, but most games well over 100 yds - 207, 196, 171 yds.

2) They have generally put more resources towards OL - G in the 1st and RT in the 2nd round in 2018; had a good C drafted in the 1st round in 2016; LT in the 3rd round last season 2022; have a 2021 late-round pick playing G.  They are def. in the "draft and develop" but that's 2 1sts, a 2nd, a 3rd round of their draft on the OL.

3) Like others have said, Singletary locked down the starter role and I believe it was said when he was drafted, Moss just wasn't different enough to be a good COP back.  Neither was fast enough to turn the corner outside, and we just weren't very good at opening holes between the tackles.

4)  Like Gunner says, Moss is best suited to run from the I with the QB under center.  The Bills ran from under center only 20% of their snaps last year.

Edited September 23, 2023 by Beck Water

[BADOLBILZ]

38 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Yes

 

But his point was that the Bills were actually a good running team, or at least halfway decent...which they clearly weren't

 

YPA isn't a great stat (Bills were 2nd fwiw not first) to determine the quality of your rush attack/oline run blocking imo. It's a piece but I give gross yards and attempts more weight because it means you're relying on your run game (which as you state is dubious offensive football in modern context)

 

The Bills were 1st in yards per carry in the NFL by RB's in 2022.

 

Which is the more pertinent stat to the discussion anyway.  (You are correct that they were 2nd in overall in ypc to the Bears because of Justin Fields running exploits).

 

The issue isn't that yards per carry isn't a great stat.   I mean there is out-of-the-box rationale and then there is just off-target and the idea that a full season ypa isn't a great stat is the latter.

 

Some fans just think that you should always be able to run the ball at will whenever you want to.......which isn't how it works in the NFL......so when the Bills have a less effective day on the ground some just can't maintain that perspective.   Even great running teams sometimes have mediocre-to-pathetic games on the ground.   

[NoSaint]

12 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

The Bills drafted running back Zack Moss in the 3rd round (86th overall) of the 2020 NFL Draft. At the time I liked the pick and thought of him as a good physical back. He flashed at times as a Bill but was mostly a disappointment partly because of his inability to stay healthy and partly because of his general ineffectiveness. He never seemed to resemble the player he was at Utah.

 

Finally last Halloween we traded him to the Colts for fellow running back Nyheim Hines. Besides swapping him for Hines, we acquired two physical runners (Damien Harris and Latavius Murray) to provide that ruggedness that Moss was supposed to bring us.

 

By the time he was shown the door he was pretty much a whipping boy for members of this forum. It hasn't been spoken of much around here but Moss has quietly resurrected his career.

 

Here are his stat lines from his last 5 regular season games with Indy:

 

Zack Moss last 5 Regular Season Games with the Colts

Date	ATT	YDS	YPC
12/17/22	24	81	3.38
12/26/22	12	65	5.42
1/1/23	15	74	4.93
1/8/23	18	114	6.33
9/17/23	18	88	4.89
AVERAGE	15.4	84.4	5.48

 

I'm curious if anyone here has any insights as to what has changed to make him a seemingly effective NFL running back. Health? Scheme? Also would you say his improvement has vindicated the Bills decision to draft him in the first place?

 

 

 

it’s easy to run when on a bad team that is behind and the defense is just avoiding big plays? 
 

here in buff he was often a short yardage back or guy getting carries in more obvious rushing downs?

[NoSaint]

58 minutes ago, Rc2catch said:

I chalk up his limited success in Indy simply to attempts and rhythm. I’m not going to do the homework but I’d be shocked if he hit more than 15 attempts in a game more than 2-3 times in Buffalo if that. Some guys need that flow to get going. I didn’t dislike moss and I’m happy with the trade to send him to Indy, I was a big Hines fan and was extremely disappointed with his tiny usage last year 
 

as much as anything I’d guess situational 
 

more than getting rhythms the guy getting the 1st and 10 carry in a slightly pass heavy offense is going to like have both a higher YPC but also more touches than the specialty back for short yardage or a guy that isn’t able to be in on passing downs. 
 

you put the short yardage guy in more scenarios their YPC will go up based on more favorable opportunities not just more opportunities 

[FireChans]

12 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

I'm not trying to be an #######... this is an honest question.

 

Do you think Mahomes or Allen could win a Super Bowl in a season in which their running backs never carry the ball?

 

Never? No. Do I think they need some statistically inefficient 50-50 balance because it sounds nice? Also no.

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The Bills were 1st in yards per carry in the NFL by RB's in 2022.

 

Which is the more pertinent stat to the discussion anyway.  (You are correct that they were 2nd in overall in ypc to the Bears because of Justin Fields running exploits).

 

The issue isn't that yards per carry isn't a great stat.   I mean there is out-of-the-box rationale and then there is just off-target and the idea that a full season ypa isn't a great stat is the latter.

 

Some fans just think that you should always be able to run the ball at will whenever you want to.......which isn't how it works in the NFL......so when the Bills have a less effective day on the ground some just can't maintain that perspective.   Even great running teams sometimes have mediocre-to-pathetic games on the ground.   

I wouldn't dispute the idea that the Bills could have been a better rush offense had they committed more personnel in draft capital along the oline and crafted a scheme more suited to the backs we did have...the rush yards/attempt does support that they were more efficient than is popularly held

 

But the concept that they actually were a good run offense is where I would disagree. And fwiw I don't begrudge them because I think running the ball and having a 'good' NFL rush offense is -EV offensively...for what the Bills want to do their rush attack was complementary enough

[Sierra Foothills]

11 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Never? No. Do I think they need some statistically inefficient 50-50 balance because it sounds nice? Also no.

 

Exactly.

 

It's a matter of degree.

 

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

4 hours ago, Fan in Chicago said:

I havent seen the Colts or Moss so cant tell about the scheme or his running style. Perhaps it is a combination of - him being motivated due to being booted off his first team, scheme, number of carries. On the Bills, he didnt look very motivated after the first season during which he looked like a hard runner and the type we eventually got with Harris and Murray. 

For one reason 

 

On a related note, I see that Singletary on the Texans has these stats

4-14-3.5

7-15-2.1

 

These are pretty poor so I looked up if he is injured but I cant find any such reports. Why is he being underutilized?

Because he never was more than a JAG, in spite of his Buffalo fan clubs fervent belief that he was a stud RB. He overachieved given the fact that he was small and slow. 

[Nephilim17]

1 hour ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

To the bolded... good question.

 

I'm not opinionating on this video but here's every touch in last week's game against the Texans:

 

 

 

Thanks. I watched this. A couple decent runs but nothing special overall. Aligns with my memory of him.

I'll take Murray and/or Harris over Moss any Sunday.