Kurt Warner Breakdown of Josh Allen This Week

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, Billy Claude said:

I think this Josh only  makes mistakes because he has to be Superman is way overplayed.  Sometimes its is true but no where close to 90%,

 

This was definitely not true of the Jets game.   When Allen threw the 2nd interception which basically screwed everything up, the Bills defense was playing great,  the Bills were in the middle of a nice drive, the Bills were already in (very) long field goal territory, and it was only second down.  In fact, the offense had been clicking since Allen's last interception. In what way was being Superman required at that time?

 

A large majority of Allen's turnovers last season were when the Bills were leading, often letting the other team back into the game.   There is time to take risks and time to play it safe. Allen has to have better awareness of game situation.

 

I also strongly dislike this an interception is as good as a punt narrative.   It is not as good as  a punt if there was a better option underneath that might have gotten you a first down -- even if you have to throw it in front of the sticks and hope for YAC.

 

 

Agree on all points...at the time Allen threw his 2nd interception in the Jets game, The Bills were leading 13-6.  As you say, it was 2nd down.  And, there were options.

 

An interception is NOT as good as a punt, because with the punt team you have designed coverage with designated roles and guys who practice taking angles and tackling.

[Scott7975]

15 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Why do you think Josh has multi turnover games?  Usually, to my observation, it's because of making multiple bad decisions.

 

But you should, perhaps, be a bit more concerned about "just multi-turnover games".   Per statmuse, in games where there are 2+ turnovers, win percentage is 0.284 overall and 0.273 in playoffs.  For 3+ turnovers, it's 0.134 generally and 0.164 in playoffs.

 

The bottom line is, Allen can make a handful of "wow!" plays to offset a turnover, but as the turnovers mount, the number of "wow" plays needed to offset them mounts to where it's just not probable against a very good or great defense.

 

 

Did you know that 93.74% of statistics are made up?

 

There have been times when Josh is trying to force things because he doesn't have alternatives.  In the Jets game, he clearly had open receivers underneath and chose to make the riskier throw.  That was also true of a couple "wow!" throws in the Raiders game.

 

The multi int bad decision games are very few. Not every turnover is a bad decision. The Jets game that wasn't the case.  Josh doesn't have those type of games very often.  Are you really trying to argue that he does?

 

  I don't care what stat muse says.  Josh has quite a few multi turnover games.  What's his record again?

Edited September 24, 2023 by Scott7975

[Beck Water]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

The multi int bad decision games are very few.

 

You care to go game by game through them and explain why they're all not bad decisions?

 

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 I don't care what stat muse says.

 

Well All Righty Then. 

 

The stat came from 'statmuse' and I sourced it, but it's a widely accepted precept (including by Bills coaches and Josh) that win probability plummets when turnovers mount to 2+.  So I dunno....maybe you should care.

 

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

Josh has quite a few multi turnover games.  What's his record again?

 

4-4 in playoffs

[Scott7975]

11 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

An interception is NOT as good as a punt, because with the punt team you have designed coverage with designated roles and guys who practice taking angles and tackling.

 

Sometimes it is.  It put the Jets at the 4.  Can't expect much better than that. I don't care what kind of special awesome punt return coverage you have.

[GoBills808]

Options open underneath really needs to go away lol

 

 

[Scott7975]

Just now, Beck Water said:

 

You care to go game by game through them and explain why they're all not bad decisions?

 

 

Well All Righty Then. 

 

The stat came from 'statmuse' and I sourced it, but it's a widely accepted precept (including by Bills coaches and Josh) that win probability plummets when turnovers mount to 2+.  So I dunno....maybe you should care.

 

 

4-4 in playoffs

 

No, I am not going to waste an astronomical amount of time going through every game over the last 5 years to determine what turnovers were bad decisions and which weren't.  I like you dude but you are just being dense on purpose now.  Can you really not tell the difference between the Jets game Josh and another game where Josh plays well but maybe still has an int or two?  He had an int today.  Was that like Josh of the Jets game?  Don't be on purpose dense bro.

 

Josh had many multi turnover games last season.  The Bills were 13-3

 

We didn't lose in the playoffs because of multi turnovers.  Again, don't be dense on purpose

[Alphadawg7]

27 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

You care to go game by game through them and explain why they're all not bad decisions?

 

 

Well All Righty Then. 

 

The stat came from 'statmuse' and I sourced it, but it's a widely accepted precept (including by Bills coaches and Josh) that win probability plummets when turnovers mount to 2+.  So I dunno....maybe you should care.

 

 

4-4 in playoffs

Counter point:  Mahomes only has 4 less interceptions than Josh over the past 2 seasons and Burrow only has 3 less than Josh.  
 

Why aren’t you or others questioning their decision making?  Not picking on your post, just saying no one questions their decision making and even though they throw a similar amount of interceptions.
 

And despite having a similar amount of INTs, over the last 2 seasons Mahomes had the better weapons, better OL and Andy Reid.  Meanwhile Josh had 2 OCs, no significant help outside Diggs, a bad OL and played half a season with an elbow injury to his throwing elbow that he played through that would have cost most QBs to miss 4-6 weeks.

 

Burrow has had a substantially better cast of weapons over that span and yet just 3 less interceptions.  Meanwhile Allen again 2 OCs (one a rookie OC), the elbow injury, etc.  

 

Not mention Allen plays in worse weather and the Bills went through a lot traumatic off field events last year as a team.  
 

And when you get to the playoffs Allen had no turnovers in our loss to KC and 1 against Cincy on last play of game down 3 scores in a heave downfield in the snow which had no impact on the game.   So turnovers have had zero to do with us losing in the playoffs.  
 

Josh only has 4 turnovers in his postseason career (with 20 TDs) a better turnover rate than Burrow and the exact same as Mahomes.  
 

So this argument IMHO against Josh and his turnovers has only been a regular season thing, yet Josh and the Bills have the second most wins in the NFL over the last 3 years.  Josh also has the most touchdowns in NFL history through first 5 seasons, 3 straight divisional titles, and is coming off a season where we were 8 points from being undefeated.

 

The cause for concern over Josh’s turnovers is over blown IMHO.  Every QB makes throws and decisions they wish they could get back, but Josh isn’t much worse than the other top QBs and has had more disadvantages than those players.  And in the playoffs Josh has a 5-1 TD-TO ratio, that is literally double Burrow for example who has 2.5-1 and puts up 83 more yards per game than Burrow and 30 more than Mahomes.  
 

 

Edited September 24, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Scott7975]

14 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Counter point:  Mahomes only has 4 less interceptions than Josh over the past 2 seasons and Burrow only has 3 less than Josh.  
 

Why aren’t you or others questioning their decision making?  Not picking on your post, just saying no one questions their decision making and even though they throw a similar amount of interceptions.
 

And despite having a similar amount of INTs, over the last 2 seasons Mahomes had the better weapons, better OL and Andy Reid.  Meanwhile Josh had 2 OCs, no significant help outside Diggs, a bad OL and played half a season with an elbow injury to his throwing elbow that he played through that would have cost most QBs to miss 4-6 weeks.

 

Burrow has had a substantially better cast of weapons over that span and yet just 3 less interceptions.  Meanwhile Allen again 2 OCs (one a rookie OC), the elbow injury, etc.  

 

Not mention Allen plays in worse weather and the Bills went through a lot traumatic off field events last year as a team.  
 

And when you get to the playoffs Allen had no turnovers in our loss to KC and 1 against Cincy on last play of game down 3 scores in a heave downfield in the snow which had no impact on the game.   So turnovers have had zero to do with us losing in the playoffs.  
 

Josh only has 4 turnovers in his postseason career (with 20 TDs) a better turnover rate than Burrow and the exact same as Mahomes.  
 

So this argument IMHO against Josh and his turnovers has only been a regular season thing, yet Josh and the Bills have the second most wins in the NFL over the last 3 years.  Josh also has the most touchdowns in NFL history through first 5 seasons, 3 straight divisional titles, and is coming off a season where we were 8 points from being undefeated.

 

The cause for concern over Josh’s turnovers is over blown IMHO.  Every QB makes throws and decisions they wish they could get back, but Josh isn’t much worse than the other top QBs and has had more disadvantages than those players.  And in the playoffs Josh has a 5-1 TD-TO ratio, that is literally double Burrow for example who has 2.5-1 and puts up 83 more yards per game than Burrow and 30 more than Mahomes.  
 

 

 

Thank you.  This guy gets it.  I don't think Beck Water even believes what he just said.  He was just being purposely dense to try and win an argument for having an initial bad take.