Kurt Warner Breakdown of Josh Allen This Week

[Shaw66]

20 minutes ago, WideNine said:

In the red zone you can really see how teams are trying to take away the right side of the field anticipating his sideline scramble.

 

There are backside throws to the flat each time. Dorsey needs to scheme up some plays to take advantage of how teams are playing Allen's tendencies down there.

 

If Allen can mainly play within the offensive game plan and take what defenses are giving, I think in most cases we will be leading teams down the stretch.

 

We have a lot of play makers who have RAC ability and if defenses are going to bail out of the flat then those become easy chunk plays for us.

 

Allen being Allen when things break down is different in my mind from Allen being Allen dismissing open options underneath and being reckless.

 

More patience and throwing on schedule quickly will lead to more team wins and that approach will lead to less frequent turnovers.

 

 

 

 

Exactly.  

 

In a sense, what we're saying is Allen hasn't reached his potential.  His potential, which is almost limitless, gives his team an edge only if the rest of the team is contributing the way it should.  It's up to Allen to get the whole offense functioning correctly by getting the ball to the playmakers.  There are several teams who have a QB who can run the offense well, like Brock Purdy, but there are very few who run the offense and also have the physical skills Allen brings.  

[WideNine]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Exactly.  

 

In a sense, what we're saying is Allen hasn't reached his potential.  His potential, which is almost limitless, gives his team an edge only if the rest of the team is contributing the way it should.  It's up to Allen to get the whole offense functioning correctly by getting the ball to the playmakers.  There are several teams who have a QB who can run the offense well, like Brock Purdy, but there are very few who run the offense and also have the physical skills Allen brings.  

 

Yup.

 

And his distribution of the ball to different receivers last week really drove home how he was getting the whole offense and all its weapons involved.

 

I would like to see some concepts in the red zone that force defenses to defend sideline-to-sideline and have to respect that lonely backside flat instead of being able to cheat to the right like they do. Motions and misdirection to that backside with jet sweeps, wheel routes, WR screens (read if they play press or off), toss sweeps, RB screens, reverses... running those and then just showing those looks would open the field up more for Allen to be even more successful when he is creative.

 

Of course, we have RBs now that can also pound the rock down there too so this offense has a lot more options they can tap into to put defenses into conflict that Dorsey can start to work into their playbook. I thought that was one thing Daboll excelled at, creativity in the red zone to keep defenses off balance.

 

The way teams play our WRs in the flat makes for good motivation to bone-up on how teams beat Cover-2 and 4 Robber concepts because you see those route combinations show up in much of what Dorsey schemes up for those on-schedule looks for Allen.

 

[Shaw66]

25 minutes ago, WideNine said:

 

Yup.

 

And his distribution of the ball to different receivers last week really drove home how he was getting the whole offense and all its weapons involved.

 

I would like to see some concepts in the red zone that force defenses to defend sideline-to-sideline and have to respect that lonely backside flat instead of being able to cheat to the right like they do. Motions and misdirection to that backside with jet sweeps, wheel routes, WR screens (read if they play press or off), toss sweeps, RB screens, reverses... running those and then just showing those looks would open the field up more for Allen to be even more successful when he is creative.

 

Of course, we have RBs now that can also pound the rock down there too so this offense has a lot more options they can tap into to put defenses into conflict that Dorsey can start to work into their playbook. I thought that was one thing Daboll excelled at, creativity in the red zone to keep defenses off balance.

 

The way teams play our WRs in the flat makes for good motivation to bone-up on how teams beat Cover-2 and 4 Robber concepts because you see those route combinations show up in much of what Dorsey schemes up for those on-schedule looks for Allen.

 

Thanks.  That's really good stuff.   More than I've seen.  

 

I think it's interesting about Allen's propensity to roll right down there.  Yes defenses know that, but they're having trouble stopping it nonetheless.  As I mentioned, the Bills have had a lot of success with the receivers crashing from the back to front of the end zone.  Both receiver and QB can see the gaps quite well, so they know where they're going.  

 

I also think that they've told Allen to roll left more often.  The Jets interceptions came on plays when he escaped left rather than right.   I think they're trying to expand his game that way for exactly the reason you give.   If he can be as effective going left as going right, the offense is that much more effective.  

[Dukestreetking]

Fav moment (~4:41) is Kincaid's downfield blocking on the Cook flat.

 

He's successfully engaged w LB#5 then--in a flash--he turns and dumps S#25 right on his flippin' a**, and gives him a FU staredown.

 

Sorry: I sequenced some screenshots but they would not load...you should really check it out.

[WideNine]

7 minutes ago, Dukestreetking said:

Fav moment (~4:41) is Kincaid's downfield blocking on the Cook flat.

 

He's successfully engaged w LB#5 then--in a flash--he turns and dumps S#25 right on his flippin' a**, and gives him a FU staredown.

 

Sorry: I sequenced some screenshots but they would not load...you should really check it out.

 

The book on Kincaid was that he was barely adequate as a blocker.

Kromer and Boras worked together a lot on our Jumbo sets last season with Hart as that extra blocker on the end, but I can easily see those two coaching up Kincaid's blocking.

 

Fingers-crossed the kid stays healthy as he looks like a keeper.

[Beck Water]

21 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

"Can't take it out of his game. Thats what makes Allen special."

 

Another version

 

 

I think Kurt Warner is finally smitten by Josh, saying he played a good game against the Jets.  There were some drops, and I guess he gives Josh credit for the 3rd INT to Davis as he seems to agree with @HappyDays that Gabe Davis needed to run deeper upfield then make his cut, but what about the fumble where Josh muffed the shotgun snap (took his eyes off it) then ran into traffic with the ball, causing the fumble?   Warner's argument is that Josh makes enough special plays to overcome the interceptions he throws.

 

At one point, Warner was getting eaten alive by fans and coaches alike for his own turnovers - he fumbled twice and was picked 4x his 2nd to last year in St Louis.  He was benched after throwing a pick on the second attempt of his next game, inactive 5 games, then when he got another chance to start threw 3 picks and fumbled 6 times in 2 games.  He may have been playing injured - he was put on IR after that - but next season, one interception and 6 fumbles in the season opener, benched again, next year traded to the Giants. 

 

My point in recounting all this is: a QB can "get away with" low level of mistakes if there is a high enough level of brilliant plays to offset them, sure.  But there comes a point - and Kurt Warner well knows this from his own professional career, if he's honest about it - where the mistakes pile up and a very good defense won't allow enough of those brilliant plays to make up for it.  1 or 2 turnovers, can probably be overcome by great play against all but the very best defenses and/or good defenses with a very good or great offense.  3 or 4, can only be overcome if the other offense is spluttering or the defense is porous.

 

That said -  I think Kurt's breakdowns are some of the best in the business and I always enjoy them.

 

 

[benderbender]

Watched 2 ads on silent to watch a minute of video and went to skip ahead to and another popped up. Done

[ColoradoBills]

2 hours ago, WideNine said:

In the red zone you can really see how teams are trying to take away the right side of the field anticipating his sideline scramble.

 

There are backside throws to the flat each time. Dorsey needs to scheme up some plays to take advantage of how teams are playing Allen's tendencies down there.

 

If Allen can mainly play within the offensive game plan and take what defenses are giving, I think in most cases we will be leading teams down the stretch.

 

We have a lot of play makers who have RAC ability and if defenses are going to bail out of the flat then those become easy chunk plays for us.

 

Allen being Allen when things break down is different in my mind from Allen being Allen dismissing open options underneath and being reckless.

 

More patience and throwing on schedule quickly will lead to more team wins and that approach will lead to less frequent turnovers.

 

 

 

 

 

I've noticed that too, even back last season.

Back 2 years ago Daboll had Josh doing some roll lefts that were highly effective.  I would like to see that worked a few times this season.

[Scott7975]

28 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Another version

 

 

I think Kurt Warner is finally smitten by Josh, saying he played a good game against the Jets.  There were some drops, and I guess he gives Josh credit for the 3rd INT to Davis as he seems to agree with @HappyDays that Gabe Davis needed to run deeper upfield then make his cut, but what about the fumble where Josh muffed the shotgun snap (took his eyes off it) then ran into traffic with the ball, causing the fumble?   Warner's argument is that Josh makes enough special plays to overcome the interceptions he throws.

 

At one point, Warner was getting eaten alive by fans and coaches alike for his own turnovers - he fumbled twice and was picked 4x his 2nd to last year in St Louis.  He was benched after throwing a pick on the second attempt of his next game, inactive 5 games, then when he got another chance to start threw 3 picks and fumbled 6 times in 2 games.  He may have been playing injured - he was put on IR after that - but next season, one interception and 6 fumbles in the season opener, benched again, next year traded to the Giants. 

 

My point in recounting all this is: a QB can "get away with" low level of mistakes if there is a high enough level of brilliant plays to offset them, sure.  But there comes a point - and Kurt Warner well knows this from his own professional career, if he's honest about it - where the mistakes pile up and a very good defense won't allow enough of those brilliant plays to make up for it.  1 or 2 turnovers, can probably be overcome by great play against all but the very best defenses and/or good defenses with a very good or great offense.  3 or 4, can only be overcome if the other offense is spluttering or the defense is porous.

 

That said -  I think Kurt's breakdowns are some of the best in the business and I always enjoy them.

 

 

 

I don't think Kurt means you can get away with them every game.  I think he means over the course of a seasons the good outweighs the bad.  Josh does not have the Jets games that often. He has way more wow games than oh crap games.

 

PS... I think I was the first to bang the drum over the Davis int not being on Josh.  I provided screenshots and gave my impression pretty much the same day.  Happy was one of the few that was on the same page. Not that it really matters.

Edited September 23, 2023 by Scott7975

[Beck Water]

50 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I don't think Kurt means you can get away with them every game.  I think he means over the course of a seasons the good outweighs the bad.  Josh does not have the Jets games that often. He has way more wow games than oh crap games.

 

PS... I think I was the first to bang the drum over the Davis int not being on Josh.  I provided screenshots and gave my impression pretty much the same day.  Happy was one of the few that was on the same page. Not that it really matters.

 

The problems are - the games where you're least likely to get away with turnovers are the Playoffs and Championship games, so if it's something you habitually tolerate in your QB play, you're habitually setting yourself up for going down in the Playoffs.

 

The other problem is, of Josh's last 15 games (Green Bay game last season on), 7 have been multi-turnover games.  Now maybe some of that is on the UCL injury, but there's cause to be concerned that it's happening more than "not very often"

 

 

Edited September 23, 2023 by Beck Water

[Don Otreply]

The deal with Allen’s mind set is he doesn’t “want to” throw the short pass, even when it’s beneficial to his and the teams success, he will do it but it’s not his preference,  when he integrates the underneath passes fully into his repertoire he then will be a virtually unstoppable QB.  On the occasions that he has done so he has had his best games as a QB. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

[Chaos]

3 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

The deal with Allen’s mind set is he doesn’t “want to” throw the short pass, even when it’s beneficial to his and the teams success, he will do it but it’s not his preference,  when he integrates the underneath passes fully into his repertoire he then will be a virtually unstoppable QB.  On the occasions that he has done so he has had his best games as a QB. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

You have actually never been in Allen's mind (me either).  But fan's imagine there is an "open underneath reciever" on every play.  There is not. Most QBs at best throw it way in those situations.  Allen generally trys to use his legs, and on rare occassion tries to force something upfield. 

[billsfan89]

On 9/22/2023 at 4:10 PM, julian said:

Yeah hopefully more people come to terms with this. The INTs aren’t the problem, it’s the decision making when the opposition is forcing him to be patient. I believe he’s on the verge of of graduating to another level of greatness.

Josh has always had that level of patience when the supporting cast let’s him. 90% of the time when Josh gets sloppy and turnover prone is when he has to force the offense to get in gear due to lackluster supporting cast play. 
 

I am hoping that with better offensive line play (Torrence and McGovern are way better than what was at guard last season and hopefully Brown is a better version of himself) and the additions of Kincaid, Harty and Sheffield to the receiving core allow Josh to feel less like he has to force things.

 

 

[Scott7975]

4 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

The problems are - the games where you're least likely to get away with turnovers are the Playoffs and Championship games, so if it's something you habitually tolerate in your QB play, you're habitually setting yourself up for going down in the Playoffs.

 

The other problem is, of Josh's last 15 games (Green Bay game last season on), 7 have been multi-turnover games.  Now maybe some of that is on the UCL injury, but there's cause to be concerned that it's happening more than "not very often"

 

 

 

I'm not talking about multi turnover games. I am talking about Josh going off the rails and becoming bad decision after bad decision Josh.  I'm not worried about just multi turnover games. I am worried about Josh when he has the mental breakdown games like the Jets.  The Bills were 13-3 last year and Josh threw 2 more ints than Mahomes.  All QBs turn the ball over.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

So weird … WGR has been telling me for a long time that Dorsey “can’t scheme anyone open” and this offense is missing “easy button” throws.

 

All of the sudden Dorsey only called the good plays.

 

Nah, in reality I think a chunk of this comes down to the Raiders stink and it’s easier when you hand off and get 7 yards all day.

 

Will the Bills go death by 1,000 papercuts again? 

 

 

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

6 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

The deal with Allen’s mind set is he doesn’t “want to” throw the short pass, even when it’s beneficial to his and the teams success, he will do it but it’s not his preference,  when he integrates the underneath passes fully into his repertoire he then will be a virtually unstoppable QB.  On the occasions that he has done so he has had his best games as a QB. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

I think he wants to in normal circumstances but some games against tough defenses he loses faith that the offense can put a long td drive together so he starts pressing to hit a big chunk play.
 

 Normally it’s when the offensive line is getting manhandled but the jets game this year seemed like a special case where they got in his head and he started bailing pockets early when he didn’t need to. I thought the OL held up pretty well in that one.  

[Don Otreply]

3 hours ago, Chaos said:

You have actually never been in Allen's mind (me either).  But fan's imagine there is an "open underneath reciever" on every play.  There is not. Most QBs at best throw it way in those situations.  Allen generally trys to use his legs, and on rare occassion tries to force something upfield. 

Hmmm…, 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Chaos said:

You have actually never been in Allen's mind (me either).  But fan's imagine there is an "open underneath reciever" on every play.  There is not. Most QBs at best throw it way in those situations.  Allen generally trys to use his legs, and on rare occassion tries to force something upfield. 

 

Some fans watched the Jets game back and saw those receivers. The Jets game was on Josh. There is no way around it. 

 

It is like the second game in 5 seasons that I would legit put on him as the main cause of a loss. That is really good. But it doesn't change the fact that the Jets loss was on him.

[Billy Claude]

6 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

Josh has always had that level of patience when the supporting cast let’s him. 90% of the time when Josh gets sloppy and turnover prone is when he has to force the offense to get in gear due to lackluster supporting cast play. 
 

 

I think this Josh only  makes mistakes because he has to be Superman is way overplayed.  Sometimes its is true but no where close to 90%,

 

This was definitely not true of the Jets game.   When Allen threw the 2nd interception which basically screwed everything up, the Bills defense was playing great,  the Bills were in the middle of a nice drive, the Bills were already in (very) long field goal territory, and it was only second down.  In fact, the offense had been clicking since Allen's last interception. In what way was being Superman required at that time?

 

A large majority of Allen's turnovers last season were when the Bills were leading, often letting the other team back into the game.   There is time to take risks and time to play it safe. Allen has to have better awareness of game situation.

 

I also strongly dislike this an interception is as good as a punt narrative.   It is not as good as  a punt if there was a better option underneath that might have gotten you a first down -- even if you have to throw it in front of the sticks and hope for YAC.

 

[Beck Water]

17 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I'm not talking about multi turnover games. I am talking about Josh going off the rails and becoming bad decision after bad decision Josh.  I'm not worried about just multi turnover games. I am worried about Josh when he has the mental breakdown games like the Jets.  The Bills were 13-3 last year and Josh threw 2 more ints than Mahomes.  All QBs turn the ball over.  

 

Why do you think Josh has multi turnover games?  Usually, to my observation, it's because of making multiple bad decisions.

 

But you should, perhaps, be a bit more concerned about "just multi-turnover games".   Per statmuse, in games where there are 2+ turnovers, win percentage is 0.284 overall and 0.273 in playoffs.  For 3+ turnovers, it's 0.134 generally and 0.164 in playoffs.

 

The bottom line is, Allen can make a handful of "wow!" plays to offset a turnover, but as the turnovers mount, the number of "wow" plays needed to offset them mounts to where it's just not probable against a very good or great defense.

 

18 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

Josh has always had that level of patience when the supporting cast let’s him. 90% of the time when Josh gets sloppy and turnover prone is when he has to force the offense to get in gear due to lackluster supporting cast play.

 

Did you know that 93.74% of statistics are made up?

 

There have been times when Josh is trying to force things because he doesn't have alternatives.  In the Jets game, he clearly had open receivers underneath and chose to make the riskier throw.  That was also true of a couple "wow!" throws in the Raiders game.