Justin Herbert's record after 52 starts vs others (couple former Bills show up)

[Doc Brown]

Herbert is the definition of why wins aren’t solely a qb stat.  Average weapons and a defense that’s overpaid relative to their performance.  Imagine Herbert on the 49ers, Eagles, or Dolphins.  They’d be putting up historic numbers.

Edited September 22, 2023 by Doc Brown

[Alphadawg7]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So a few things on this...  

 

First, I have said consistently that even within games Justin Herbert is streaky. His 3rd Quarter stats in particular are poor and I see too many games of his where he goes into a strange lull. Kinda like we had with Josh in 2019... but that was Josh's second year. It isna recurring issue with Herbert that still shows itself. 

 

But second, I disagree his weapons are that great. He has two big slow guys and a scat back (a very good scat back but still). It was a major problem for the Chargers last year and has been so far this year.... they don't separate and the have nobody to get deep and take the top off. So defenses just sit on them. Allen is still a crafty route runner but is basically a big slot only at this point he offers almost no downfield threat outside. Mike Williams is Gabe Davis but with a top 10 draft tag. He is a big body, decent in the redzone and you can use him in physical 1v1s on the boundary. But I actually think Gabe offers more deep threat. They drafted Johnston who has 2 catches for 9 yards thus far... they need to try and incorporate him quickly because at least he offers some deep speed (though his game has other holes). And they drafted the wrong guy IMO. Tom Telesco likes big so it was always gonna be Johnston or Kincaid but they should have drafted Jordan Addison. He was the EXACT player that offense was crying out for.

 

He also has some of the worst coaching in the NFL. Brandon Staley is a defensive coach. And the Chargers have more 2023 cap dollars invested in defense than every other team in the league. For their defense to be this horrible with Bosa, Mack, Kendricks, Jackson and James is unforgiveable.

 

So yea Justin Herbert deserves some questioning. He hasn't yet taken that step from super talented playmaking QB to elite level performance QB but his weapons and his coaching are major issues. The one excuse he doesn't have is protection. That oline is stacked.

 

While I agree with most of what you are saying, your negative spin on his weapons is more reflective of THIS year than his previous years that make up the majority of his 52 starts.  Ekeler is a great RB, I watch a lot of him, he is a very good runner and receiver and doesn't get the credit he deserves IMHO as one of the better RB's overall in the NFL.  He does from the fantasy football community, but when people talk about the best backs in the league, he doesn't get as much recognition as he should IMHO.

 

And what you say about Allen is true THIS year...but Justin has been in the league since Allen was in his prime.  So, while you are not wrong on Allen right now, your assessment is not a reflection of the whole 52 games they have played together where Allen was arguably a top 10, definitely top 15, WR for a period Justins career.  And I have felt Mike Williams was grossly over paid from the moment he got that contract, but...he is no slouch either.  And they have other supporting players around these guys who have been solid too over the years.

 

Point is, there are a lot of QB's working with a lot less than Justin has been working with who have amassed better records than him and reached the playoffs across the NFL.  And while coaching has certainly been an issue, Herbert has also not been a guy who has gotten it done either when it mattered despite having enough talent on that team to do it.  

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Herbert is the definition of why wins aren’t solely a qb stat.  Average weapons and a defense that’s overpaid relative to their performance.  Imagine Herbert on the 49ers, Eagles, or Dolphins.  They’d be putting up historic numbers.

Average weapon lol

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think the weapons are as good as the names suggest, Eckler apart, and then it comes down to @BADOLBILZ's point about even when you have a really good receiving back if you have an offense designed to throw to your receiving back a ton that is going to turn you into a dink and dunk offense whether you wanna be or not. Eckler's average yards per reception was a pitiful 6.7 yards last year (he was pretty high on that metric earlier in his career). Compare that to Cole Beasley's first two years as Josh's "outlet" receiver here in the slot where he was over 11 yards per catch. If your outlet receiver is a back rather than a slot or tight end it almost always means you are sacrificing yardage. 

 

Here is the counter point:  KC produces about 30% of their offense from passes near or behind the LOS.  No one calls them a dink and dunk offense, its a highly effective part of their offensive design.  

 

And while I don't disagree that Chargers tend to use Ekeler a lot as a dump off option, that is more of OC issue and offensive design problem than say a limitation in Ekelers ability or decline in his skills as a RB IMHO.

 

In the couple posts I have read so far of yours here, you seem to talk more on the recent state of his weapons rather than the quality of his weapons of his career when guys like Allen were in their prime.  I mean he has been a top 15, and arguably top 10, WR most of his career and Ekeler has certainly been a top 10 RB (arguably top 5 at times) and one of the best receiving backs since becoming a feature RB.  

 

And I don't really disagree about your assessment today per se, but there is no way we can say Justin has not had enough to work with to post a winning record over 52 games or make the playoffs.  

 

Here is a fun question:  Do the Chargers have a winning record and at least reach the playoffs had Mahomes had been the QB over those 52 games?  What about Allen?  Burrow?  Rogers?  I have a hard time seeing any of those QB's post a losing record over 52 games with those players to work with on offense, bad coaching and all.  

 

So for me:  His weapons are not a viable excuse for his losing record.  Lesser QB's have done more with less. 

 

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Here is the counter point:  KC produces about 30% of their offense from passes near or behind the LOS.  No one calls them a dink and dunk offense, its a highly effective part of their offensive design.  

 

And while I don't disagree that Chargers tend to use Ekeler a lot as a dump off option, that is more of OC issue and offensive design problem than say a limitation in Ekelers ability or decline in his skills as a RB IMHO.

 

In the couple posts I have read so far of yours here, you seem to talk more on the recent state of his weapons rather than the quality of his weapons of his career when guys like Allen were in their prime.  I mean he has been a top 15, and arguably top 10, WR most of his career and Ekeler has certainly been a top 10 RB (arguably top 5 at times) and one of the best receiving backs since becoming a feature RB.  

 

And I don't really disagree about your assessment today per se, but there is no way we can say Justin has not had enough to work with to post a winning record over 52 games or make the playoffs.  

 

Here is a fun question:  Do the Chargers have a winning record and at least reach the playoffs had Mahomes had been the QB over those 52 games?  What about Allen?  Burrow?  Rogers?  I have a hard time seeing any of those QB's post a losing record over 52 games with those players to work with on offense, bad coaching and all.  

 

So for me:  His weapons are not a viable excuse for his losing record.  Lesser QB's have done more with less. 

 

Idk what the Chargers were thinking letting Hunter Henry go. He is ALWAYS productive and imo that’s a stable of weapons that would’ve helped Herbert even more.

 

The main thing you are missing though Alpha, is that as Herbert’s weapons have broken down around him, he has won more. 6 wins to 9 wins to 10 wins over the last 3 seasons. So, as the talent has decreased around him, Herbert has had to compensate more and win MORE games. 
 

To your point that would Allen/Mahomes have won more, yes of course. But he isn’t Allen or Mahomes or Burrow. Those are the 3 best QBs in football.

53 minutes ago, ganesh said:

'great' at the beginning of the sentence and 'overrated' at the end of the sentence !!! 

 

Herbert and team are being held back by their coaching staff's inability; somewhat similar in trajectory (but less) are the Bills !

The Bills Mafia would kill to have Allen or Williams run routes with Diggs !

No way bro. Staley ain’t even in the same stratosphere as the Bills’ coaches.

[Alphadawg7]

Did you watch the Chargers game when they were in a win and you are in position against the Raiders?  Herbert didn't get the job done...he can amass stats, but he has trouble winning IMHO.

 

Let me ask you this...do you believe the Chargers have the same losing record had Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, or Rogers been the QB over those 52 games and no playoff appearances?  If you honestly think yes they do have the same record (or worse), then sure the defense can be the excuse.  But if not, then its not a strong enough excuse to dismiss the fact he has not made the playoffs and has a sub .500 record after 52 games.  

[FireChans]

11 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Did you watch the Chargers game when they were in a win and you are in position against the Raiders?  Herbert didn't get the job done...he can amass stats, but he has trouble winning IMHO.

 

Let me ask you this...do you believe the Chargers have the same losing record had Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, or Rogers been the QB over those 52 games and no playoff appearances?  If you honestly think yes they do have the same record (or worse), then sure the defense can be the excuse.  But if not, then it’s not a strong enough excuse to dismiss the fact he has not made the playoffs and has a sub .500 record after 52 games.  

Is the whole point of your topic that Justin Herbert isn’t as good as Allen or Mahomes? There are about 29 other QB’s who also aren’t as good as them.

[Buffalo Junction]

5 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Oh, it's not just putrid coaching.   That would be too simple to account for the continual ineptitude of the Chargers over the last two decades.  Back in the early 2000s, the Chargers were loaded with talent, thanks especially to the Eli Manning trade.  They didn't have just a great QB in Philip Rivers, they had two, and the one they let walk away, Drew Brees, was even better.  They could steamroll teams during the regular season but couldn't win playoff games despite having plenty of talent.  For most of Rivers' career, the Chargers managed to lose key games with the same kind of blunders that they've made this season.  They've been doing it for 20 years.  The Chargers have changed players, coaches, GMs, cities, owners, stadiums -- and they still manage to "seize defeat from the jaws of victory".   The Chargers just "Charger".

You can probably add another 10 years to that. They’ve been Chargering since the Bobby Ross era. 

[Einstein]

21 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Did you watch the Chargers game when they were in a win and you are in position against the Raiders?  Herbert didn't get the job done

 

Herbert had 383 yards and 3 TD's in that game, and put up 32 points!

 

The Chargers tied up the game with a little under 5 minutes remaining and then his terrible defense allowed a 4 minute and 30 second drive that literally took the game down to 0's on the clock as the Raiders kicked a field goal.

 

How is that Herberts fault?

 

The last three times Herbert had the ball was Touchdown, Touchdown, Field goal.

[Albany,n.y.]

40 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Did you watch the Chargers game when they were in a win and you are in position against the Raiders?  Herbert didn't get the job done...he can amass stats, but he has trouble winning IMHO.

 

Let me ask you this...do you believe the Chargers have the same losing record had Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, or Rogers been the QB over those 52 games and no playoff appearances?  If you honestly think yes they do have the same record (or worse), then sure the defense can be the excuse.  But if not, then its not a strong enough excuse to dismiss the fact he has not made the playoffs and has a sub .500 record after 52 games.  

If the Chargers had the other QBs you mentioned (except Burrow who came in the same time as Herbert), Anthony Lynn would still be their head coach & Staley would be making boneheaded decisions elsewhere.  

Edited September 22, 2023 by Albany,n.y.

[Utah John]

15 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Saw this stat earlier tonight about Justin Herberts record after 52 games.  And this is a guy making $262.5M and that since entering the NFL he has had a potent stable of weapons including Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and more.

 

These are some of the QB's who have better records than him after 52 starts:

 

Mark Sanchez:  31-21

Andy Dalton:  31-21

Mitch Trubisky:  29-23

Carson Wentz:  28-24

Teddy Bridgewater:  28-24

Baker Mayfield:  27-25

Matt Cassel:  27-25

Tyrod Taylor:  26-25-1

______________________________

Justin Herbert:  25-27

 

I know that W/L records are not all on a QB...but that is a pretty pitiful record for a guy making $262.5M and playing with the kind of weapons he has had around him.  

 

Just sayin'

Not one of those QBs or any other QBs played defense.  I think we put too much emphasis on a QB's personal WL record.

 

The Chargers have allowed 63 points in two games, the worst mark in the AFC. But they've scored 58, and only Miami with 60 has scored more (in the AFC).  So now they're 0-2 and I think that indicates the problems are more with coaching and the defense than with the offense.  You know, the side Herbert plays on.

 

All that said, I'm not convinced at all that he's at the same level as Mahomes or Allen.  He plays in the LA market so he'll have lots of people supporting him -- until maybe the day comes when he's got a lot of people wanting him gone.  He's more of a game manager with a great arm, than a determined leader who finds ways to win. 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Keenan Allen is on pace for 120 catches 1600 yards and 17tds

 

Yea. He won't get that.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Did you watch the Chargers game when they were in a win and you are in position against the Raiders?  Herbert didn't get the job done...he can amass stats, but he has trouble winning IMHO.

 

Let me ask you this...do you believe the Chargers have the same losing record had Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, or Rogers been the QB over those 52 games and no playoff appearances?  If you honestly think yes they do have the same record (or worse), then sure the defense can be the excuse.  But if not, then its not a strong enough excuse to dismiss the fact he has not made the playoffs and has a sub .500 record after 52 games.  

 

That game is a CLASSIC example of a Justin Herbert game. He had a strange lull in the 3rd and early 4th then played fantastic in the clutch. And his D didn't back him up. 

 

On your weapons point.... I think it applies to 2022 and 2023. I accept it applied less to 2020 and 2021. 

 

On the other QBs point... I think they'd have all done better. They are better Quarterbacks (or Rodgers was for two of those years). That is different than thinking Herbert is the main reason for the Chargers disappointing record. As I said earlier he is ON the list of reasons. He isn't the top of it.

 

 

[EasternOHBillsFan]

The Chargers HAVE ALWAYS had good teams and nothing beyond that. Greatness eludes them and I believe that it has a lot to do with the Spanos family. They have won several division titles over the years under two GMs, Bobby Beathard and A. J. Smith., but beyond those two they have won zero championships despite having talented teams. Their coaching hires have been terrible for the most part, and of course they unceremoniously fired Marty Schottenheimer after a 14-2 season and losing to the PATRIOTS of all teams in the playoffs.

 

Dean Spanos, like his father, blunders through seasons gathering pieces but never using them properly. It's abysmal. Herbert isn't the problem, the Spanos family is...

Edited September 22, 2023 by EasternOHBillsFan

[Sherlock Holmes]

This is how QBs rank in the NFL

1. Josh Allen

2. Brock Purdy

3. Justin Sherbert

4. Trevor Lawrence

5. Kermit

[Matt_In_NH]

The coach will soon pay the price.

[Southern_Bills]

16 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Tua > Herbert?

 

 

 

Tua is a decent QB with great weapons and a really good offensive scheme. 

 

Though I do believe Herbert will always find a way to lose.

[ExiledInIllinois]

10 hours ago, Pete said:

The Chargers are an enigma wrapped in a riddle to me.  They are loaded with talent.  Herbert looks great every time I’ve seen him.  He checks all the QB boxes.  The Chargers should be a Super Bowl contender.  But instead they are a jet plane that cannot take off

They DO play KC twice...

 

 

[mannc]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Did you watch the Chargers game when they were in a win and you are in position against the Raiders?  Herbert didn't get the job done...he can amass stats, but he has trouble winning IMHO.

 

Bad example…that was Herbert’s best game as a pro…like saying Josh Allen “didn’t get it done” in the 13 seconds game.

[PBF81]

And yet, he's 2-3 against KC. 

 

The rankings of Justin Herbert's Defenses:

 

23rd

29th

21st

30th so far

 

There could be at least some correlation.

 

Just sayin'.

 

 

Edited September 22, 2023 by PBF81