Justin Herbert's record after 52 starts vs others (couple former Bills show up)

[TheFunPolice]

Herbert might have the misfortune of being good enough that he is burdened with mediocre to poor coaching his entire career.

 

Win just enough that you can't get rid of the HC but always be held back

 

Staley is a terrible HC, IMO. His "everything you know about football is wrong" approach is cute when it works and straight up stupid when it doesn't, which is more often.

 

 

Edited September 22, 2023 by TheFunPolice

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Guy blew a 27-0 deficit to the freakin Jags who squeaked in the playoffs because of the Titans QB injuries. He also blew a game against the Raiders to make the playoffs the year before. Herbert is routinely mentioned as an elite QB, but I just don’t see it. I see the talent for sure, but not the grit or killer instinct of a guy like Mahomes or Allen. Herbert has a group of skill position players that rival the 49ers. 

Edited September 22, 2023 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[TheFunPolice]

I blame his terrible HC, whose approach is the more reckless the decision the better. Once in a while it works and he's a "genius" but more often the odds prevail.

 

Herbert will lead them to enough wins and overcome Staley's blunders just enough for him to have the Staley anchor holding him down most of his career. And Staley is a defensive specialist, who can't seem to build an elite unit with Bosa and Mack on the edges.

 

Can't fire a "winning" HC. The Chargers of all teams, who fired Marty after a 14-2 season, are the ones with that mentality. 

 

Hey, good news for us though! Having Staley as the HC takes one potential contender out of the mix. 

 

 

 

Edited September 22, 2023 by TheFunPolice

[FireChans]

11 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

Herbert might have the misfortune of being good enough that he is burdened with mediocre to poor coaching his entire career.

 

Win just enough that you can't get rid of the HC but always be held back

 

Staley is a terrible HC, IMO. His "everything you know about football is wrong" approach is cute when it works and straight up stupid when it doesn't, which is more often.

 

 

He’s hilarious because he clearly got bullied out of doing it. He’s much more conservative now, and that’s clearly the wrong way to go 

[TheFunPolice]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

He’s hilarious because he clearly got bullied out of doing it. He’s much more conservative now, and that’s clearly the wrong way to go 

 

Agreed....He's a disaster. He'll blow 2-3 games every year with idiotic coaching blunders, plus his defense stinks and that's supposed to be his specialty. 

 

That said, a lot of his "smart" moves cost the Chargers games. There's a reason that (insert "boring" football coach name here) would punt the ball or play field position. Because it works most of the time. 

Edited September 22, 2023 by TheFunPolice

[Process]

Herbert is tough to figure out. He has all the tools. You watch him, and he looks like an elite QB that every team would love to have. But he just doesn't win. 

 

His coaches have sucked and are a huge part of it. 

 

But you're up 27-0 in the playoffs. Just win the game. It shouldn't be hard. 

 

I don't know. 

[Mango]

10 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

He seems like great QB to have as backup but not one to be paid $262.5M.

Sort of reminds me of a more athletic Andy Dalton. Good enough that you kinda sorta have to pay him QB money because moving on is too much of a risk. 

[Albany,n.y.]

10 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah I agree the coaching is a joke...I am stunned Staley wasn't fired after weeks 1 and 2.  Its like he has majored in how to lose games.  Like I said, not putting it all on Herbert by any means, but geesh, I was shocked when I saw he actually has a losing record given the amount of talent he has around him and the level he has played it.  Seems like bad coaching or not, he should at least be over .500 after 52 games.

 

I mean Trubisky had even worse coaching in Chicago, they didn't even try and develop him, and he had no talent around him there...but he has a winning record and took Chicago to the playoffs.  

 

So was just a little surprised to see just how little he and the Chargers have won despite a loaded offense.  

Worst coaching west of Chicago.  

 

I had it with Staley in 2021.  I bet the over on the Chargers wins based on Herbert being in his 2nd season & I figured anyone would be an upgrade over Anthony Lynn.  I tiered the bets so that if they won a certain number of games I'd break even & more games I'd win money.  After a quick start where I was very confident that I'd win all the bets, I watched Staley make some wild decisions that cost the Chargers multiple games.  I lost all but the bet with the lowest win total that was a push.  Years later, Staley still has never learned to coach.  I structured the bet similar to what I had done in 2019 with the Bills.  After watching Josh as a rookie, I was confident that the Bills would win around 10 games & make the playoffs in his sophomore year because of improvements on the O-line & WRs.  I tiered the bets to break even at 8-8, and win it all if they won 10 & made the playoffs.  I cashed every future bet that year & had the same theory on Herbert's 2nd season.  

 

 

Herbert will win a lot of games once they get rid of Staley.  

[FireChans]

38 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

 

Agreed....He's a disaster. He'll blow 2-3 games every year with idiotic coaching blunders, plus his defense stinks and that's supposed to be his specialty. 

 

That said, a lot of his "smart" moves cost the Chargers games. There's a reason that (insert "boring" football coach name here) would punt the ball or play field position. Because it works most of the time. 

I’m convinced that someone up top told him to stop or he was gonna be fired. I don’t mind aggression, particularly against great teams where you need a little boost to actually get the win.

 

But this guy will go for it on 4th and 3 at his own 40 in the second Q, then in the 4th Q, he will punt on 4th and 2 on the opponent's 40. If you want to be an analytics guy, be an analytics guy all the time. He's not really an analytics guy at all, he's a "zig when everyone thinks you're gonna zag" guy, which is just a shade away from being an idiot. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So a few things on this...  

 

First, I have said consistently that even within games Justin Herbert is streaky. His 3rd Quarter stats in particular are poor and I see too many games of his where he goes into a strange lull. Kinda like we had with Josh in 2019... but that was Josh's second year. It isna recurring issue with Herbert that still shows itself. 

 

But second, I disagree his weapons are that great. He has two big slow guys and a scat back (a very good scat back but still). It was a major problem for the Chargers last year and has been so far this year.... they don't separate and the have nobody to get deep and take the top off. So defenses just sit on them. Allen is still a crafty route runner but is basically a big slot only at this point he offers almost no downfield threat outside. Mike Williams is Gabe Davis but with a top 10 draft tag. He is a big body, decent in the redzone and you can use him in physical 1v1s on the boundary. But I actually think Gabe offers more deep threat. They drafted Johnston who has 2 catches for 9 yards thus far... they need to try and incorporate him quickly because at least he offers some deep speed (though his game has other holes). And they drafted the wrong guy IMO. Tom Telesco likes big so it was always gonna be Johnston or Kincaid but they should have drafted Jordan Addison. He was the EXACT player that offense was crying out for.

 

He also has some of the worst coaching in the NFL. Brandon Staley is a defensive coach. And the Chargers have more 2023 cap dollars invested in defense than every other team in the league. For their defense to be this horrible with Bosa, Mack, Kendricks, Jackson and James is unforgiveable.

 

So yea Justin Herbert deserves some questioning. He hasn't yet taken that step from super talented playmaking QB to elite level performance QB but his weapons and his coaching are major issues. The one excuse he doesn't have is protection. That oline is stacked.

Tom Telesco, another St Francis product, just like last years Wonderkid Brian Dabol who is now heading a disaster in NYC.

[Buffalo03]

12 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Saw this stat earlier tonight about Justin Herberts record after 52 games.  And this is a guy making $262.5M and that since entering the NFL he has had a potent stable of weapons including Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and more.

 

These are some of the QB's who have better records than him after 52 starts:

 

Mark Sanchez:  31-21

Andy Dalton:  31-21

Mitch Trubisky:  29-23

Carson Wentz:  28-24

Teddy Bridgewater:  28-24

Baker Mayfield:  27-25

Matt Cassel:  27-25

Tyrod Taylor:  26-25-1

______________________________

Justin Herbert:  25-27

 

I know that W/L records are not all on a QB...but that is a pretty pitiful record for a guy making $262.5M and playing with the kind of weapons he has had around him.  

 

Just sayin'

It's coaching. It's clear watching Herbert play he's franchise guy

[Buffalo03]

11 hours ago, Nelius said:

Been banging the Herbert is overrated drum since early last year. He's very good at providing wooden 285yd-1td performances. Any more however is rare, and I've yet to see him really put the team on his back. Kind of disappointing really. A couple of years ago many assumed he and Josh would clash as mega-QBs but I'm just not seeing the same tier in Herbert.

 

Healthy Tua is probably better at this point, or right there with him.

The dude threw for 4300 yards 31 TDs and 10 picks as a rookie and that was missing the first game of the season which Tyrod started and played. He threw for 5000 yards 38 TDs and 15 picks in his second year. Those are elite QB numbers. He was kind of mediocre last year while still throwing for 4700 yards. but I blame coaching for this. Not him. I don't think he's overrated at all

 

[Einstein]

12 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

but geesh, I was shocked when I saw he actually has a losing record given the amount of talent he has around him and the level he has played it.  

 

But Herbert has utilized the talent around him. His offense was top 10 last year in yards and passing. 

 

His defense, meanwhile, was 20th in yards and 22nd in points given up. 

 

The Chargers aren't losing because of Herbert.

They're losing games 36-34 and 27-24.

 

[DrBob806]

While I tend to agree, he's still pretty darn good. 

 

Like the LA Rams a couple years ago, don't be surprised to see the Chargers in the Super Bowl. The NFL needs to justify 2 teams in LA.

2 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

 

 

Can't fire a "winning" HC. The Chargers of all teams, who fired Marty after a 14-2 season, are the ones with that mentality. 

 

 

 

 

 

Marty wanted Drew Brees, not Rivers as his QB, so that's why they canned him. Turns out Marty was right, Brees was the better QB.

 

 

[Paup 1995MVP]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think the weapons are as good as the names suggest, Eckler apart, and then it comes down to @BADOLBILZ's point about even when you have a really good receiving back if you have an offense designed to throw to your receiving back a ton that is going to turn you into a dink and dunk offense whether you wanna be or not. Eckler's average yards per reception was a pitiful 6.7 yards last year (he was pretty high on that metric earlier in his career). Compare that to Cole Beasley's first two years as Josh's "outlet" receiver here in the slot where he was over 11 yards per catch. If your outlet receiver is a back rather than a slot or tight end it almost always means you are sacrificing yardage. 

The Chargers offense can score points.  They move the football.  Watch the Dolphins and Titan games.  The offense did not lose them the games.  Their defense is overrated.  Bosa and Mack are names.  But neither is dominant game in and game out.  Mack used to be.  But no longer.  And Bosa always seems to be nicked up or injured.  (He is certainly not at the level of his brother)  Their secondary was atrocious against the Dolphins.  The middle was open all game.   

 

Herbert is kind of a wimpy version of Josh Allen.  He doesn't run like Josh, lead like Josh, or improvise on the move like Josh.  But the guy can still throw the football.  Reminds me of a poor man's version of Dan Marino the way he passes the ball.  

 

On a more general note.  The NFL is not the offensive game that it was turning into a few years ago.  There are a handful of really dynamic QB's.  The majority are decent to *****.  Just look at the Steelers-Browns game from Monday nite.  It was a very entertaining game.  But Watson and Pickett were mediocre at best, and at some points downright awful.  That's what you get from most QB's in today's NFL.  

[TheBrownBear]

9 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

But Herbert has utilized the talent around him. His offense was top 10 last year in yards and passing. 

 

His defense, meanwhile, was 20th in yards and 22nd in points given up. 

 

The Chargers aren't losing because of Herbert.

They're losing games 36-34 and 27-24.

 

I'm with you. The argument against him doesn't hold water when you consider they've consistently been a top-10 passing offense with Herbert.  He has the most 4th quarter comebacks and game winning drives in the NFL since he was drafted. 

 

The underwhelming win/loss record has almost entirely been poor coaching (and maybe karma...haha).

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

The Chargers offense can score points.  They move the football.  Watch the Dolphins and Titan games.  The offense did not lose them the games.  Their defense is overrated.  Bosa and Mack are names.  But neither is dominant game in and game out.  Mack used to be.  But no longer.  And Bosa always seems to be nicked up or injured.  (He is certainly not at the level of his brother)  Their secondary was atrocious against the Dolphins.  The middle was open all game.   

 

Herbert is kind of a wimpy version of Josh Allen.  He doesn't run like Josh, lead like Josh, or improvise on the move like Josh.  But the guy can still throw the football.  Reminds me of a poor man's version of Dan Marino the way he passes the ball.  

 

On a more general note.  The NFL is not the offensive game that it was turning into a few years ago.  There are a handful of really dynamic QB's.  The majority are decent to *****.  Just look at the Steelers-Browns game from Monday nite.  It was a very entertaining game.  But Watson and Pickett were mediocre at best, and at some points downright awful.  That's what you get from most QB's in today's NFL.  

 

They can and I agree the defense is by far their main issue. But the weapons they have ARE overrated. Keenan Allen isn't what he was and Mike Williams has always been a bit overrated. Personally I have always been a bit of a "Khalil Mack is overrated" guy too. I don't think he is now. I think most people accept what he is now. But at his peak he was overhyped IMO.  

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They can and I agree the defense is by far their main issue. But the weapons they have ARE overrated. Keenan Allen isn't what he was and Mike Williams has always been a bit overrated. Personally I have always been a bit of a "Khalil Mack is overrated" guy too. I don't think he is now. I think most people accept what he is now. But at his peak he was overhyped IMO.  

Keenan Allen is on pace for 120 catches 1600 yards and 17tds

[ganesh]

13 hours ago, FireChans said:

I think Justin Herbert is a great QB being held back by putrid coaching moreso than just about anyone else in the league, but I also think he’s overrated. 
 

It’s kind of a conundrum. 

'great' at the beginning of the sentence and 'overrated' at the end of the sentence !!! 

 

Herbert and team are being held back by their coaching staff's inability; somewhat similar in trajectory (but less) are the Bills !

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They can and I agree the defense is by far their main issue. But the weapons they have ARE overrated. Keenan Allen isn't what he was and Mike Williams has always been a bit overrated. Personally I have always been a bit of a "Khalil Mack is overrated" guy too. I don't think he is now. I think most people accept what he is now. But at his peak he was overhyped IMO.  

The Bills Mafia would kill to have Allen or Williams run routes with Diggs !

[Chicken Boo]

12 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

geez. Every year since Rivers they're hyped up and talented and continue to underperform every year, pretty unbelievable 

 

It's like a curse.  Definitely weird.