Justin Herbert's record after 52 starts vs others (couple former Bills show up)

[Mr. WEO]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So a few things on this...  

 

First, I have said consistently that even within games Justin Herbert is streaky. His 3rd Quarter stats in particular are poor and I see too many games of his where he goes into a strange lull. Kinda like we had with Josh in 2019... but that was Josh's second year. It isna recurring issue with Herbert that still shows itself. 

 

But second, I disagree his weapons are that great. He has two big slow guys and a scat back (a very good scat back but still). It was a major problem for the Chargers last year and has been so far this year.... they don't separate and the have nobody to get deep and take the top off. So defenses just sit on them. Allen is still a crafty route runner but is basically a big slot only at this point he offers almost no downfield threat outside. Mike Williams is Gabe Davis but with a top 10 draft tag. He is a big body, decent in the redzone and you can use him in physical 1v1s on the boundary. But I actually think Gabe offers more deep threat. They drafted Johnston who has 2 catches for 9 yards thus far... they need to try and incorporate him quickly because at least he offers some deep speed (though his game has other holes). And they drafted the wrong guy IMO. Tom Telesco likes big so it was always gonna be Johnston or Kincaid but they should have drafted Jordan Addison. He was the EXACT player that offense was crying out for.

 

He also has some of the worst coaching in the NFL. Brandon Staley is a defensive coach. And the Chargers have more 2023 cap dollars invested in defense than every other team in the league. For their defense to be this horrible with Bosa, Mack, Kendricks, Jackson and James is unforgiveable.

 

So yea Justin Herbert deserves some questioning. He hasn't yet taken that step from super talented playmaking QB to elite level performance QB but his weapons and his coaching are major issues. The one excuse he doesn't have is protection. That oline is stacked.

 

Yet he has no problem piling up passing stats with that crew.  51 games/14623 yards/97TD/287ypg.  

 

He's not a winner.

[Lost]

42 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think the weapons are as good as the names suggest, Eckler apart, and then it comes down to @BADOLBILZ's point about even when you have a really good receiving back if you have an offense designed to throw to your receiving back a ton that is going to turn you into a dink and dunk offense whether you wanna be or not. Eckler's average yards per reception was a pitiful 6.7 yards last year (he was pretty high on that metric earlier in his career). Compare that to Cole Beasley's first two years as Josh's "outlet" receiver here in the slot where he was over 11 yards per catch. If your outlet receiver is a back rather than a slot or tight end it almost always means you are sacrificing yardage. 

 

Isn't this essentially what the 49ers are?  It works for them though.

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Yet he has no problem piling up passing stats with that crew.  51 games/14623 yards/97TD/287ypg.  

 

He's not a winner.

 

That is true, and I think I agree with the not a winner point. Though it is an unconventional way of not being a winner because I think he plays well in the clutch. It is almost like the can't concentrate for an entire 60 minutes. 

 

I do think the Chargers weapons lend themselves to being a pile up yards but don't win games offense though. It has no knockout punch. 

[dave mcbride]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Saw this stat earlier tonight about Justin Herberts record after 52 games.  And this is a guy making $262.5M and that since entering the NFL he has had a potent stable of weapons including Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and more.

 

These are some of the QB's who have better records than him after 52 starts:

 

Mark Sanchez:  31-21

Andy Dalton:  31-21

Mitch Trubisky:  29-23

Carson Wentz:  28-24

Teddy Bridgewater:  28-24

Baker Mayfield:  27-25

Matt Cassel:  27-25

Tyrod Taylor:  26-25-1

______________________________

Justin Herbert:  25-27

 

I know that W/L records are not all on a QB...but that is a pretty pitiful record for a guy making $262.5M and playing with the kind of weapons he has had around him.  

 

Just sayin'

I think you are looking at this incorrectly. In 2021, the Chargers finished 5th in points and 4th in yards. The defense finished 29th and 23rd in those categories. Last year, they finished 13th in points and 9th in yards (and gave up the 4th fewest turnovers), and the defense finished 21st and 20th in those categories. The divide was similar in his rookie season too.  This year, through 2 games, their offense is 6th in points and 5th in yards, while their defense is 30th and 32nd in those categories.

 

That’s the issue. He is playing consistently well, but he can’t overcome a bad defense. 

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, Lost said:

 

Isn't this essentially what the 49ers are?  It works for them though.

 

No. They have speed in Deebo and Aiyuk (I know he is hurt atm). Yes they throw to a running back a lot, that is true. And that does make them a bit dink and dunk and I think you saw some of that last night where for part of that game Wink managed to sit on them a bit. But Deebo and Aiyuk at least stretch the field. And McCaffrey averaged 2 yards a catch more than Eckler last year. 

[Mr. WEO]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I think you are looking at this incorrectly. In 2021, the Chargers finished 5th in points and 4th in yards. The defense finished 29th and 23rd in those categories. Last year, they finished 13th in points and 9th in yards (and gave up the 4th fewest turnovers), and the defense finished 21st and 20th in those categories. The divide was similar in his rookie season too.  This year, through 2 games, their offense is 6th in points and 5th in yards, while their defense is 30th and 32nd in those categories.

 

That’s the issue. He is playing consistently well, but he can’t overcome a bad defense. 

 

More true for Cousins than Herbert

[mannc]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So a few things on this...  

 

First, I have said consistently that even within games Justin Herbert is streaky. His 3rd Quarter stats in particular are poor and I see too many games of his where he goes into a strange lull. Kinda like we had with Josh in 2019... but that was Josh's second year. It isna recurring issue with Herbert that still shows itself. 

 

But second, I disagree his weapons are that great. He has two big slow guys and a scat back (a very good scat back but still). It was a major problem for the Chargers last year and has been so far this year.... they don't separate and the have nobody to get deep and take the top off. So defenses just sit on them. Allen is still a crafty route runner but is basically a big slot only at this point he offers almost no downfield threat outside. Mike Williams is Gabe Davis but with a top 10 draft tag. He is a big body, decent in the redzone and you can use him in physical 1v1s on the boundary. But I actually think Gabe offers more deep threat. They drafted Johnston who has 2 catches for 9 yards thus far... they need to try and incorporate him quickly because at least he offers some deep speed (though his game has other holes). And they drafted the wrong guy IMO. Tom Telesco likes big so it was always gonna be Johnston or Kincaid but they should have drafted Jordan Addison. He was the EXACT player that offense was crying out for.

 

He also has some of the worst coaching in the NFL. Brandon Staley is a defensive coach. And the Chargers have more 2023 cap dollars invested in defense than every other team in the league. For their defense to be this horrible with Bosa, Mack, Kendricks, Jackson and James is unforgiveable.

 

So yea Justin Herbert deserves some questioning. He hasn't yet taken that step from super talented playmaking QB to elite level performance QB but his weapons and his coaching are major issues. The one excuse he doesn't have is protection. That oline is stacked.

This pretty well sums it up for me.  I think the Chargers’ weapons are highly overrated…absolutely no deep threat, for a qb who throws a really nice deep ball.

 

 I would add one or two other things:

 

if we’re talking W-L, the Chargers have zero home field advantage.  That probably costs them a game it two a year.

 

it’s curious to me that Herbert really doesn’t ever run the ball unless forced to; no designed runs.  This is a guy who is probably Josh Allen’s equal as a runner.  I assume it’s because of injury concerns but this is a major part of his game that the chargers just ignore.

 

the guy just isn’t clutch.  Always picks the worst time to make a bad decision.  He was the same at Oregon.  He is a pretty soft guy, playing for a soft team in a soft part of the country. Bad combination.

 

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, Pete said:

The Chargers are an enigma wrapped in a riddle to me.  They are loaded with talent.  Herbert looks great every time I’ve seen him.  He checks all the QB boxes.  The Chargers should be a Super Bowl contender.  But instead they are a jet plane that cannot take off

I think the chargers have suffered from misaligned expectation based on fantasy football and such. 
 

as gunner noted - Allen and Williams are both talented players but a poor pairing of skill sets. Ekeler is back and backs don’t win games, generally. 
 

they don’t have a ton of true over the top explosive talent to create mismatches and adjust the defensive scheme. 
 

throw in bad coaching and you have a collection of talented players with mediocre results. 

[NoSaint]

43 minutes ago, Lost said:

 

Isn't this essentially what the 49ers are?  It works for them though.

Honestly, only sort of? 
 

Mccaffery is only on pace for 60 catches, ekeler had 107 last year

 

the 9ers perimeter threats have a bit more vertical talent too

[RunTheBall]

I echo others comments that Hebert doesn’t seem to have the “it” factor to turn his excellent physical skill/traits into a top 3 QB. 

 

I haven’t watched a ton of Hebert but the games I watched I was always left wondering if he reads the field well

[NoSaint]

Just now, RunTheBall said:

I echo others comments that Hebert doesn’t seem to have the “it” factor to turn his excellent physical skill/traits into a top 3 QB. 

 

I haven’t watched a ton of Hebert but the games I watched I was always left wondering if he reads the field well

the expectation that every qb has to be a top 3 to be good is a bit of a challenge in these discussions too… 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

the expectation that every qb has to be a top 3 to be good is a bit of a challenge in these discussions too… 

 

Yea since the Bills got a top 3 QB we have become very snooty about any QB that isn't and routinely accuse good QBs of sucking

[SoCal Deek]

Funny, but I don’t recall Tyrod being on any Subway commercials back in his playoff days.  😳

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

5 hours ago, billsbackto81 said:

Maybe a bit, but its not his fault his defense choked away a 23 point 2nd half lead in the playoffs.

 

Now that's an epic defensive meltdown!

 

Wait a second. Doesn't he also get blame for only leading his team to a 3 point second half? JA gets blame around here for the Houston Texans WC loss where the Bills were up 16-0 and then only managed 3 points in the second half while the defense gave up 19. 

 

Also, the defense picked off Lawerence 4 times i think in that first half setting up two TD "drives" for the Chargers offense that started inside the Jacksonville 20 yard line. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

They spend a LOT on defense, and the defense isn't good as a whole.  Derwin james is the highest paid safety, they have bosa and mack as 2 of the top 3 paid edge rushers, and jc jackson who is the 9th highest paid corner.  Last year they couldn't stop the run, this year they can't stop passing teams.  All with a defensive head coach.  

[Mc1320]

His defense is soft and gives up huge plays all over the place, terrible special teams and he has an idiot coach. Plus because San Diego.errr….LA has no fan base, their ‘home’ games are basically neutral site games.

 

 A better measure would be were does their offensive scoring numbers compare to the rest of the league over this span?  - pretty sure they would be toward the top.

[The Jokeman]

8 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Tua > Herbert?

 

 

More like

 

Mike McDaniel > Brandon Staley

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think the weapons are as good as the names suggest, Eckler apart, and then it comes down to @BADOLBILZ's point about even when you have a really good receiving back if you have an offense designed to throw to your receiving back a ton that is going to turn you into a dink and dunk offense whether you wanna be or not. 

 

The greatest team ever in terms of sustained success at the highest level was dink and dunk to the RB's for the majority of their reign. They also sprinkled in slot guys like Welker and Edelman and then had the big receiver to go to in Gronk. Not too dissimilar to the Chargers offense with Allen being the possession slot guy and Mike Willaims the big, bodied receiver. 

 

Hasn't one of the Chargers biggest issues been injuries over the last few seasons? I believe Mike Williams missed the Jags WC game last year right because the idiot of a coach decided to play him the week before in a meaningless game. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen last year combined to miss 11 games. They have even been banged up on their o-line with Rashawn Slater missing all but 3 games last season. And their Center was out for three games. On defense Derwin James and Bosa are both notorious for missing a lot of games due to injury over the last few seasons. 

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

They spend a LOT on defense, and the defense isn't good as a whole.  Derwin james is the highest paid safety, they have bosa and mack as 2 of the top 3 paid edge rushers, and jc jackson who is the 9th highest paid corner.  Last year they couldn't stop the run, this year they can't stop passing teams.  All with a defensive head coach.  

 

The highest paid defense in the NFL (in terms of cap dollars allocated in 2023).

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

The highest paid defense in the NFL (in terms of cap dollars allocated in 2023).

 

And currently 32nd in yards and 30th in points... i still don't know why they brought staley back, he's just not a good coach.  My assumption is ownership.