Geopolitical Megatrends - What Surprises Do You See c. 2035?

[The Frankish Reich]

I was looking at this Iran prisoner swap thing. Yeah, it is kind of a ransom payment. Whatever.

But I got to thinking: in a geopolitical sense, the Persian Gulf/Middle East is irrational. We are cozying up to Saudi Arabia (at least we really did under Trump) and continue to treat Iran as a pariah. Iran makes it easy by calling for the destruction of Israel and death to America. We know that.

But ... Iran has a young and entrepreneurial population. There is an established educational system (obviously not available to all), and all the ayatollahs have been unable to extinguish a western orientation in successive generations of Iranians. It looks like the Islamist leaders have a stranglehold on the country, but we've seen organized dissent, and it's not going anywhere. Iran is, of course, Saudi Arabia's #1 geopolitical foe. We have by design (Trump) or by default (what? we're gonna forgive Iran?) tended to side with the Saudis when it matters. Iran is technologically far superior (including unfortunately nuclear technology) and their young people have a far superior work ethic (I've had involvement with both - my opinion is that the Saudis are by far the laziest international students I've ever dealt with, spoiled by years of getting a government stipend for simply breathing). That's a reason to make friends with them to neutralize any threat.

 

PREDICTION: fast forward 10-15 years and Iran will be our #1 geopolitical ally in the region, and Saudi Arabia will be increasingly irrelevant. Iran has potential. Saudi Arabia has oil. Period.

 

Any other out of the box predictions?

[Joe Ferguson forever]

I see the US falling precipitously geopolitically should trump win.  Russia is f'ed either way but screwing up our ass kicking nation will be achieved if he wins.  If he doesn't and a D wins, It's biz as usual and the trump party is finished...High stakes indeed.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Joe Ferguson forever

[The Frankish Reich]

26 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

I see the US falling precipitously geopolitically should trump win.  Russia is f'ed either way but screwing up our ass kicking nation will be achieved if he wins.  If he doesn't and a D wins, It's biz as usual and the trump party is finished...High stakes indeed.

But longer term: Putin won’t live forever, regardless of who we elect. There’s no apparent successor to his imperial throne. Does Russia tilt westward again, or is this the reformation of the USSR?

[Joe Ferguson forever]

12 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

But longer term: Putin won’t live forever, regardless of who we elect. There’s no apparent successor to his imperial throne. Does Russia tilt westward again, or is this the reformation of the USSR?

As said, the Russians are f'ed.

 

 we take their oil or we produce energy better,  It doesn't matter (well it does for future gens....pull up the ladder jack, I'm fine,). they are George Plimpton's paper Lion.  Go Ukraine!  destroy them and ol' tuck in the process.

Edited September 20, 2023 by Joe Ferguson forever

[Joe Ferguson forever]

18 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

But longer term: Putin won’t live forever, regardless of who we elect. There’s no apparent successor to his imperial throne. Does Russia tilt westward again, or is this the reformation of the USSR?

They tilt westward.  Standard of living is it,  they know it. We know it...They want to be Americans.  Levis are cool x for the one on this site,

Edited September 20, 2023 by Joe Ferguson forever

[The Frankish Reich]

9 hours ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

They tilt westward.  Standard of living is it,  they know it. We know it...They want to be Americans.  Levis are cool x for the one on this site,

I think that's right. I don't see Putinism as a viable political philosophy; it is a manner of dictatorial control only. So my best guess (wishful thinking?) is that Putinism will be viewed as a historical blip in Russia's overall reorientation toward the West and a free market economy - a mega trend that is now almost forty years long.

[sherpa]

11 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I was looking at this Iran prisoner swap thing. Yeah, it is kind of a ransom payment. Whatever.

But I got to thinking: in a geopolitical sense, the Persian Gulf/Middle East is irrational. We are cozying up to Saudi Arabia (at least we really did under Trump) and continue to treat Iran as a pariah. Iran makes it easy by calling for the destruction of Israel and death to America. We know that.

But ... Iran has a young and entrepreneurial population. There is an established educational system (obviously not available to all), and all the ayatollahs have been unable to extinguish a western orientation in successive generations of Iranians. It looks like the Islamist leaders have a stranglehold on the country, but we've seen organized dissent, and it's not going anywhere. Iran is, of course, Saudi Arabia's #1 geopolitical foe. We have by design (Trump) or by default (what? we're gonna forgive Iran?) tended to side with the Saudis when it matters. Iran is technologically far superior (including unfortunately nuclear technology) and their young people have a far superior work ethic (I've had involvement with both - my opinion is that the Saudis are by far the laziest international students I've ever dealt with, spoiled by years of getting a government stipend for simply breathing). That's a reason to make friends with them to neutralize any threat.

 

PREDICTION: fast forward 10-15 years and Iran will be our #1 geopolitical ally in the region, and Saudi Arabia will be increasingly irrelevant. Iran has potential. Saudi Arabia has oil. Period.

 

Any other out of the box predictions?

 

I'm not going to predict anything, but Iran is behind basically every bit of trouble in the middle east, and is directly responsible for many US deaths.

Whether their younger less ideological youth can wrestle control from the ruling regime remains to be seen, but the country has a largely out of control group in their military, the Revolutionary Guard, and is pursuing nuclear weaponry.

In my view, the Israelis will not allow that to happen.

They don't have the current capability to strike it militarily, but there are other ways, and they are very good at using "other ways."

That concerns me greatly, because I think the Iranian regime is close.

 

I will absolutely endorse your view of the Saudis work ethic.

When they purchased their F-15's after getting comfortable flying them they came to us for a air combat training week.

As an adversary, I flew against them for five days.

They were atrocious, and totally disinterested in learning how to fight the thing.

The guys I flew against were far more interested in getting to the O Club than in using the airplane properly, and they had some very curious ideas about their place in the world. 

[Tiberius]

11 hours ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I was looking at this Iran prisoner swap thing. Yeah, it is kind of a ransom payment. Whatever.

But I got to thinking: in a geopolitical sense, the Persian Gulf/Middle East is irrational. We are cozying up to Saudi Arabia (at least we really did under Trump) and continue to treat Iran as a pariah. Iran makes it easy by calling for the destruction of Israel and death to America. We know that.

But ... Iran has a young and entrepreneurial population. There is an established educational system (obviously not available to all), and all the ayatollahs have been unable to extinguish a western orientation in successive generations of Iranians. It looks like the Islamist leaders have a stranglehold on the country, but we've seen organized dissent, and it's not going anywhere. Iran is, of course, Saudi Arabia's #1 geopolitical foe. We have by design (Trump) or by default (what? we're gonna forgive Iran?) tended to side with the Saudis when it matters. Iran is technologically far superior (including unfortunately nuclear technology) and their young people have a far superior work ethic (I've had involvement with both - my opinion is that the Saudis are by far the laziest international students I've ever dealt with, spoiled by years of getting a government stipend for simply breathing). That's a reason to make friends with them to neutralize any threat.

 

PREDICTION: fast forward 10-15 years and Iran will be our #1 geopolitical ally in the region, and Saudi Arabia will be increasingly irrelevant. Iran has potential. Saudi Arabia has oil. Period.

 

Any other out of the box predictions?

Love your optimism on Iran, but that government has such a stranglehold on the people I can't see them throwing off the oppression, but who knows. 

 

I think the Chinese situation will change. The Chinese communist party can't keep up the economic growth and repression, IMO. We are great because of the Bill of Rights, China will run out of talent to keep its economy growing and changing. How does a system like that react to change and stay strong? 

[The Frankish Reich]

8 minutes ago, sherpa said:

 

I'm not going to predict anything, but Iran is behind basically every bit of trouble in the middle east, and is directly responsible for many US deaths.

Whether their younger less ideological youth can wrestle control from the ruling regime remains to be seen, but the country has a largely out of control group in their military, the Revolutionary Guard, and is pursuing nuclear weaponry.

In my view, the Israelis will not allow that to happen.

They don't have the current capability to strike it militarily, but there are other ways, and they are very good at using "other ways."

That concerns me greatly, because I think the Iranian regime is close.

 

I will absolutely endorse your view of the Saudis work ethic.

When they purchased their F-15's after getting comfortable flying them they came to us for a air combat training week.

As an adversary, I flew against them for five days.

They were atrocious, and totally disinterested in learning how to fight the thing.

The guys I flew against were far more interested in getting to the O Club than in using the airplane properly, and they had some very curious ideas about their place in the world. 

Thanks. I appreciate the perspective.

I don't know when (if?) Iran will flip. I just feel that it will. I have no similar confidence about Saudi since they seem to have an almost complete lack of understanding of civic culture and what that means.

[Tiberius]

10 hours ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:

I see the US falling precipitously geopolitically should trump win.  Russia is f'ed either way but screwing up our ass kicking nation will be achieved if he wins.  If he doesn't and a D wins, It's biz as usual and the trump party is finished...High stakes indeed.

Ya, canceling the Constitution would be a real hit to us. Putin would be smiling 

[The Frankish Reich]

1 minute ago, Tiberius said:

I think the Chinese situation will change. The Chinese communist party can't keep up the economic growth and repression

That has always been my instinct. But I'll admit it - my core beliefs were formed in the 1990s collapse of European communism and opening up of China's economy. We always thought that open markets would naturally lead to a more open political system. I still hope that's right (again, long term megatrends), but China (not Russia so much) is starting to make me doubt that.

[Tommy Callahan]

The Bricks nations are attempting to be what NATO, or the UN is.

 

as far as IRAN to SA. its not close now, or projection.  

 

Saudi Arabia with a GDP of $786.5B ranked the 18th largest economy in the world, while Iran ranked 29th with $454B. By GDP 5-years average growth and GDP per capita, Saudi Arabia and Iran ranked 124th vs 102nd and 41st vs 105th.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/294233/iran-gross-domestic-product-gdp/

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/268059/gross-domestic-product-of-saudi-arabia/

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

2 hours ago, Chris farley said:

The Bricks nations are attempting to be what NATO, or the UN is.

 

as far as IRAN to SA. its not close now, or projection.  

 

Saudi Arabia with a GDP of $786.5B ranked the 18th largest economy in the world, while Iran ranked 29th with $454B. By GDP 5-years average growth and GDP per capita, Saudi Arabia and Iran ranked 124th vs 102nd and 41st vs 105th.

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/294233/iran-gross-domestic-product-gdp/

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/268059/gross-domestic-product-of-saudi-arabia/

 

 

Right, but you need to look beyond the oil pump. Saudi is trying to diversify, but in an almost comically show-offy way, not in any way that will actually position it to be competitive in anything other than extractive (oil) industries.

I am not too thrilled about hitching our (US) wagon even more strongly to the Saudis, which is exactly what this administration (just like the last one) is about to do.

[Tommy Callahan]

35 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

I am not too thrilled about hitching our (US) wagon even more strongly to the Saudis, which is exactly what this administration (just like the last one) is about to do.

And the one prior, and so on.

 

I don't disagree. 

 

[Joe Ferguson forever]

38 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Right, but you need to look beyond the oil pump. Saudi is trying to diversify, but in an almost comically show-offy way, not in any way that will actually position it to be competitive in anything other than extractive (oil) industries.

I am not too thrilled about hitching our (US) wagon even more strongly to the Saudis, which is exactly what this administration (just like the last one) is about to do.

Hate the LIV/PGA deal.  It's all optics and not much of real substance but they're buying a piece of US (and UK) culture.

[Precision]

By 2035 Russia will resemble a third world country (anyone who's been there knows that there are areas that already fit this description).  By 2035 the population is projected to decline from 144 million to under 140 million without taking account the full impacts of the ongoing war.  The primary exports (oil and gas) will become less relevant as the world moves toward renewables.  The loss of military capability in the current conflict (and the economic inability to rebuild the armed forced) will encourage other countries within the Russian Federation sphere of influence to split off.  Georgia and Moldova are future NATO candidates and any number of the "stan's" would likely try to go it alone. 

[ChiGoose]

I think we will start to see the rise of Africa as the next battlefield of Western vs. China influence. Many countries on the continent are poised for strong growth while birthrates have declined in more developed countries. Additionally, the increased importance of green technology will make resources like cobalt that are found in Africa more valuable and in demand.

 

We have seen China's anticipation of this with their Belt and Road initiative investing heavily in the continent in the hopes that they can pull it into China's sphere of influence. So far, this has thankfully had mixed results but the mere fact that China is trying this underscores the future importance of the continent.

[Tiberius]

More autonomous ships 

 

 

 

https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/u-s-sends-drone-ships-to-western-pacific-in-first-deployment-near-china-6d772297 

 

YOKOSUKA, Japan—Two prototype U.S. drone ships have arrived in Japan for their first deployment in the western Pacific, testing surveillance and attack capabilities that the Navy might find useful against China’s larger fleet.

U.S. Navy Cmdr. Jeremiah Daley said unmanned surface vessels that operate autonomously could substitute for larger ships such as destroyers in groups hunting enemy targets. “For example, one destroyer and two USVs could replace three destroyers. It’s a force multiplier,” he said. 

[k2mountain]

These "EV only starting 2035" mandates will be demolished since the world isn't ready for EV only. The grid doesn't have the capacity, chargers are few, battery technology isn't ready for prime time, and only rich people can afford EVs.

 

How are all those people who live in flats and street park going to charge their car?

[The Frankish Reich]

3 minutes ago, SUNY_amherst said:

Here in the US rail high speed rail will be much bigger thing

I don't see this one happening. I'm not saying it shouldn't - an actual dedicated high-speed rail line along the east coast would be great - but I don't see us getting out of the current situation where big infrastructure projects stall everywhere they're proposed. This is an American political problem.

24 minutes ago, k2mountain said:

These "EV only starting 2035" mandates will be demolished since the world isn't ready for EV only. The grid doesn't have the capacity, chargers are few, battery technology isn't ready for prime time, and only rich people can afford EVs.

 

How are all those people who live in flats and street park going to charge their car?

I agree. Not "EV only" or the end of the ICE engine. I think those mandates will be cut back and we'll see more hybrids and generally better vehicles that overall are far more fuel efficient, with EVs being a big part of that.