Week 3: Buffalo (-6.5) at Washington

[Boatdrinks]

30 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

looks like their D could be pretty nasty?

 

 

They’ve had a very good DL for awhile now. Won’t be easy in the trenches vs this group. 

[appoo]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

In both the Commanders games this year they came from behind to win it. Howell looked awesome I'm those comebacks. 

 

If Buffalo gets an early lead it will be really important to not take the foot off the gas because this Commander team will not quit. 

They also low key have a potential elite WR pair in McLaurin and Dotson 

[Einstein]

(re-posted to fix formatting)

1) Washington QB Sam Howell will be our defense's toughest competition so far. I wouldn’t have guessed that going into the season, with Aaron Rodgers on our schedule, and even a mediocre Garoppolo. Regardless, Howell has been throwing some dimes over the course of the first two weeks - I’m talking about some Josh Allen’esque throws in terms of "wow" factor. His arm is certainly not as strong as Allen's and sometimes it feels like the ball is taking too long to get there, but his placement is incredible. I don’t blame Washington fans for being excited. Look at the following video for an example -  In the second clip, he puts the ball over top of 3 defenders for the Tochdown.
 

 

 

2) I may have to walk back some of my criticism of Bienemy being an Andy Reid puppet. The Washington offense looks fun and they’re averaging 27.5 points per game. What is most impressive to me is their play variety: A variety of screens, crossers, lots of motion, etc. This play pictured below has a bit of everything and really stressed the Broncos defense.

 

 

 

 

3) The Commanders d-line is incredible on paper but has failed to live up the hype… until this year. Through 2 games, Young, Sweat, Payne and Allen have combined for 25 QB pressures, and the defense as a whole had 37 pressures against the Broncos in Week 2 alone. Our o-line will have a challenge on their hands this week.
 

 

4) Washington often turns to what they call a "Buffalo nickel". They essentially substitute a LB for a third safety who plays near the line. The idea is that a safety will cover better than a linebacker, but is a more skilled tackler than a cornerback. Middle ground, so to speak. This is usually Kam Curl who is 6'2 and 200 pounds. If you think this looks a lot like Cover 0, you're not alone. That was my initial thought until I saw the interview by Massare and Bundt with a Commanders fan/analyst on Twitter. Anyway, it leaves the third level vulnerable with only one safety playing deep. Kincaid could have a big game exploiting the middle when Washington goes into Buffalo nickel.
 

 

 

5) All that being said, this start by the Commanders has the feeling of one of those false-hope drought-era teams to me. You remember the ones that started 3-0 or 4-0 and then fell apart? (looking at you, 2007 Bills squad)

[stevestojan]

I’m starting to wonder why we’re only 6.5 pt favorites. 

[Gregg]

Just now, stevestojan said:

I’m starting to wonder why we’re only 6.5 pt favorites. 

 

On the road against a 2-0 team that has some talent. 6.5 is a decent spread here. I think the Bills win but it will be a one score game IMHO. Bills 27-20

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

17 minutes ago, Einstein said:

(re-posted to fix formatting)

1) Washington QB Sam Howell will be our defense's toughest competition so far. I wouldn’t have guessed that going into the season, with Aaron Rodgers on our schedule, and even a mediocre Garoppolo. Regardless, Howell has been throwing some dimes over the course of the first two weeks - I’m talking about some Josh Allen’esque throws in terms of "wow" factor. His arm is certainly not as strong as Allen's and sometimes it feels like the ball is taking too long to get there, but his placement is incredible. I don’t blame Washington fans for being excited. Look at the following video for an example -  In the second clip, he puts the ball over top of 3 defenders for the Tochdown.
 

 

 

2) I may have to walk back some of my criticism of Bienemy being an Andy Reid puppet. The Washington offense looks fun and they’re averaging 27.5 points per game. What is most impressive to me is their play variety: A variety of screens, crossers, lots of motion, etc. This play pictured below has a bit of everything and really stressed the Broncos defense.

 

 

 

 

3) The Commanders d-line is incredible on paper but has failed to live up the hype… until this year. Through 2 games, Young, Sweat, Payne and Allen have combined for 25 QB pressures, and the defense as a whole had 37 pressures against the Broncos in Week 2 alone. Our o-line will have a challenge on their hands this week.
 

 

4) Washington often turns to what they call a "Buffalo nickel". They essentially substitute a LB for a third safety who plays near the line. The idea is that a safety will cover better than a linebacker, but is a more skilled tackler than a cornerback. Middle ground, so to speak. This is usually Kam Curl who is 6'2 and 200 pounds. If you think this looks a lot like Cover 0, you're not alone. That was my initial thought until I saw the interview by Massare and Bundt with a Commanders fan/analyst on Twitter. Anyway, it leaves the third level vulnerable with only one safety playing deep. Kincaid could have a big game exploiting the middle when Washington goes into Buffalo nickel.
 

 

 

5) All that being said, this start by the Commanders has the feeling of one of those false-hope drought-era teams to me. You remember the ones that started 3-0 or 4-0 and then fell apart? (looking at you, 2007 Bills squad)

very helpful. I think it will really help us to have two weeks of game film on these guys now. I have a feeling that the D will have some more success against them. 

[NickelCity]

3 minutes ago, stevestojan said:

I’m starting to wonder why we’re only 6.5 pt favorites. 

 

Will our offense kind of way to mitigate their strong DLine? That's the biggest question to me.

[Warcodered]

 

[buffblue]

 

 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 9/19/2023 at 10:15 AM, BuffaloBillyG said:

Howell isn't elite by any means but can make plays. Looked pretty good in the second half last week. Can extend plays with his legs and has a lot of underrated weapons around him.

 

False bravado from some aside, this week will be a real good test for this team IMO.

Howell is gonna be a good one. I really like this dudes playing style, but McD and the D are going to eat him for lunch. He just doesn’t have the experience going against a tough veteran defense like the Bills have and these are typically the types of borderline .500 teams that we blow out. I think the spread is very generous. I wouldn’t be surprised if Allen drops 30+ on them. 

Edited September 20, 2023 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[Buffalo_Stampede]

 Look who it is

 

 

[The Frankish Reich]

4 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Howell is gonna be a good one. I really like this dudes playing style, but McD and the D are going to eat him for lunch. He just doesn’t have the experience going against a tough veteran defense like the Bills have and these are typically the types of borderline .500 teams that we blow out. I think the spread is very generous. I wouldn’t be surprised if Allen drops 30+ on them. 

For me, too soon to tell with Howell. I'm more at the point where I say, "oh, now I see why they gave him the starting job." He does have talent, and more importantly, poise and a little swagger. I think they're hoping for some of Wentz's physical attributes but with Heinecke's intelligence/leadership. At a minimum I think they may have found an Andy Dalton, but he definitely could be better than that. Right now he's effectively a rookie, and the teams that have played him so far haven't really done anything to throw him off his game. Kind of like the minor league slugger who sees a steady diet of fastball when he's called up; when he shows he can handle that, he starts getting tons of off-speed stuff. Not sure what curves McD will throw at him, but there will definitely be some.

[BuffaloBillyG]

I want to believe this. 

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by BuffaloBillyG

[DrDawkinstein]

We played the WFT 2 years ago, pretty much same weekend, at home. We were 1-1 coming off a dumb opening loss, and then a week 2 blowout win.

 

Final Score:

Bills 43

WFT 21

 

I dont see that much has changed with them since then. I expect the score to be similar.

 

 

Edited September 20, 2023 by DrDawkinstein

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, buffblue said:

 

 

 

Me not likely that injury list.  But wow, what a mental "sea change" that represents, to thinking a hindered Bernard is a significant concern

 

5 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

 

I'm confused now.  I thought our window was closed and we weren't one of the top teams any more?

 

 

[Franco_92]

Hyde and Floyd might not see a Wednesday practice all year, yeah?

[zow2]

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

I'm confused now.  I thought our window was closed and we weren't one of the top teams any more?

 

 

 

It's amazing isn't it? The Bills are literally everyone's regular season Super Bowl.  Allen is so respected amongst the players and coaches.  They know what he brings, and the D is no joke either.  Almost no Washington media and fans that I have heard, think the Commanders will win this game.  It's kind of a house money game for Wash.

[RoyBatty is alive]

On 9/19/2023 at 10:44 AM, NewEra said:

They have one of the better front 4’s in the league imo.  They lack productivity @ LB.  I really like their young cb core of Forbes and St Juste and Martin and Kendall fuller is their vet to lean on. I don’t know much about their safeties.

 

robinson is tough runner and can break tackles.  Mcclaurin and Dotson are 2 dynamic (but not elite imo) WRs and Samuel is a nice compliment that can also take some handoffs.  Our DL should have its way with their young OL.

What I think we be the battle to watch if our O line versus their D Line.  Honestly i feel better about rookie Torrence than anyone else on our O Line.  Also we could really use a healthy Leonard Floyd and our D Line might have a field day..

[DaBillsFanSince1973]