Week 3: Buffalo (-6.5) at Washington

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings 2023:

 

7. Buffalo Bills (1-1)

Week 2 ranking: 9

Player: WR Gabe Davis
Current contract situation: Under contract through the 2023 season

Davis is playing on the final year of his rookie deal after the Bills drafted him in the fourth round of the 2020 draft. Davis suffered a high ankle sprain prior to Week 2 last season and finished with 48 catches for 836 yards and seven touchdowns but was often targeted on throws downfield and had nine drops. Davis is a strong run-blocker, was named a team captain for the first time in 2023 and has eight catches for 124 yards and a score so far this season. His future in Buffalo will depend on what he wants in a contract and if the Bills think he is the best option to pair with Stefon Diggs going forward. 

 

4. Miami Dolphins (2-0)

Week 2 ranking: 5

Player: QB Tua Tagovailoa
Current contract situation: Under contract through the 2024 season

There might not be a bigger contract situation to monitor in the NFL -- literally. After Joe Burrow reset the market on Day 1 of the 2023 season, Tagovailoa could do the same next spring. He will play on the fifth year of his rookie contract in 2024, but he's a betting favorite for NFL MVP through the first two weeks of this season, according to Caesars Sportsbook. If he keeps this up, expect the Dolphins to shell out more money than they've ever given a player in team history.

 

18. Cincinnati Bengals (0-2)

 

5. Kansas City Chiefs (1-1)

 

21. New York Jets (1-1)

Week 2 ranking: 12

Player: DE Bryce Huff
Current contract situation: Under contract through the 2023 season

Huff is an excellent pass-rushing specialist, but he probably will walk after the season because the Jets already have invested heavily at the position. They used first-round picks on Will McDonald IV (2023) and Jermaine Johnson (2022). Huff recorded the highest pressure percentage (25.6%) in 2022 among edge rushers with at least 100 pass-rushing snaps. Huff has drawn trade interest in the past; the question is whether the Jets would part with him before the trading deadline if they fall out of contention.

 

24. New England Patriots (0-2)

Week 2 ranking: 17

Player: OLB Matthew Judon
Current contract situation: Under contract through the 2024 season

Judon signed a four-year, $56 million deal in March of 2021. After an adjustment this year that boosted his 2023 pay by borrowing from his 2024 salary, Judon is likely to be back at the negotiating table in the offseason for another adjustment because his 2024 base salary is just $6.5 million. The Patriots had a similar situation with CB Stephon Gilmore in 2020. Judon totaled 15.5 sacks last season and 12.5 in 2021, becoming just the fourth player in Patriots history to post back-to-back seasons with double-digit sacks.

[MikePJ76]

This is going to be a physical game.  That line seems to high.  

 

 

[Process]

The line seems high. But also a game I wouldn't touch betting wise. 

 

It's hard to gauge the commanders because they've played two really bad teams. There is a chance they are a solid team, with a good d line and weapons on offense and that this could be a trappy type game. But they could also just suck, and we have a tendency to just blow out bad teams, especially early in the season. 

 

If the weather is crappy, I see a sloppy grind it out game where there is never really a doubt that we will win, but not a dominating performance. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

Don’t see the Commanders scoring more than 20, and see the Bills scoring at least 27.  Aka love the Bills by at least 7, probably double digits.

[Virgil]

45 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I simply cannot believe you're only an hour away and you're not going.  I'm mad at you.

I think you underestimate how much the traffic and stadium sucks 

 

I would rather drive 3 hours away than go to this stadium 

Edited September 19, 2023 by Virgil

[dorquemada]

33 minutes ago, mannc said:

Washington reminds me of some of the drought-era Bills teams who started the season with a couple wins over tomato cans, generated a lot of fan hype, and then got destroyed when they had to play a good team in week three or four.

 

this time i swear you better hold the football lucy!

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I think you underestimate how much the traffic and stadium sucks 

 

I would rather drive 3 hours away than go to this stadium 

 

I once hiked from Atlanta to Buffalo for a game.  I only had a pot to boil water in and a machete to hunt with for food.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

Thank goodness I was looking for a thread like this.

 

I confess that I don't know a ton about the Washington strengths/weaknesses outside of that Howell is not elite. I will appreciate all insight 

They have one of the better front 4’s in the league imo.  They lack productivity @ LB.  I really like their young cb core of Forbes and St Juste and Martin and Kendall fuller is their vet to lean on. I don’t know much about their safeties.

 

robinson is tough runner and can break tackles.  Mcclaurin and Dotson are 2 dynamic (but not elite imo) WRs and Samuel is a nice compliment that can also take some handoffs.  Our DL should have its way with their young OL.

[Beast]

Bills 31-20

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

 

woof those announcers

 

turrbl man

 

[The Frankish Reich]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Howell isn't elite by any means but can make plays. Looked pretty good in the second half last week. Can extend plays with his legs and has a lot of underrated weapons around him.

Main thing: he was making his third NFL start last week, and things didn't go well in the first quarter. But he never looked panicked or confused. He's supposed to have limited physical gifts, but I didn't see any throws where I said "a stronger armed QB makes that play/avoids that INT," etc.

Having said that, he shouldn't scare anyone. Chances are he's a Kyle Allen once teams start to understand his strengths/weaknesses/tendencies.

15 minutes ago, NewEra said:

robinson is tough runner and can break tackles.  Mcclaurin and Dotson are 2 dynamic (but not elite imo) WRs

Robinson is the guy I'm a little worried about. The receivers are good but not great. Logan Thomas is likely out or he'd be a threat in the red zone.

[NickelCity]

56 minutes ago, stevestojan said:

Flight from Santa Barbara to DC leaves at 5:15am Friday morning! Meeting 18 of my closest friends for a few days of shenanigans. 

 

Surely we don't have a direct from SB to DC? 

[NewEra]

3 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Main thing: he was making his third NFL start last week, and things didn't go well in the first quarter. But he never looked panicked or confused. He's supposed to have limited physical gifts, but I didn't see any throws where I said "a stronger armed QB makes that play/avoids that INT," etc.

Having said that, he shouldn't scare anyone. Chances are he's a Kyle Allen once teams start to understand his strengths/weaknesses/tendencies.

Robinson is the guy I'm a little worried about. The receivers are good but not great. Logan Thomas is likely out or he'd be a threat in the red zone.

Yeah he’s tough…. But he’s nowhere near as good as Jacobs.  

[Sierra Foothills]

Reasons for concern that this could be a trap game:

 

• Bills play Dolphins in week 4
• Eric Bienemy appears to be doing a good job as Commanders new OC
• QB Sam Howell is a playmaking athlete
• Good offensive skill position weapons in RB Brian Robinson, and WRs Jahan Dotson, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel (I think TE Logan Thomas won't play)
• Good defensive talents in edge rushers Montez Sweat, Chase Young, LB Jamin Davis, stout DTs Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, and S Kamren Curl
• Commanders are at home
• Commanders are 2-0
• Bills always have a target on their back

All that said, if the Bills play up to their capabilities they should win without too much suspense... but this is also a game the Bills could lose if they're not focused.

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Washington wins a high scoring game. 
 

30-27 Washington.

[jletha]

27 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Reasons for concern that this could be a trap game:

 

• Bills play Dolphins in week 4
• Eric Bienemy appears to be doing a good job as Commanders new OC
• QB Sam Howell is a playmaking athlete
• Good offensive skill position weapons in RB Brian Robinson, and WRs Jahan Dotson, Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel (I think TE Logan Thomas won't play)
• Good defensive talents in edge rushers Montez Sweat, Chase Young, LB Jamin Davis, stout DTs Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, and S Kamren Curl
• Commanders are at home
• Commanders are 2-0
• Bills always have a target on their back

All that said, if the Bills play up to their capabilities they should win without too much suspense... but this is also a game the Bills could lose if they're not focused.

 

I feel like Buffalo under McD doesnt often fall victim to trap games. We generally beat bad teams down handily. Its usually a talking point that our stats are inflated against bad teams.

[RunTheBall]

Your yearly reminder that there is no statistical data to back up the "trap game" myth. It's only a fan anxiety reaction. 

[Low Positive]

3 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

Your yearly reminder that there is no statistical data to back up the "trap game" myth. It's only a fan anxiety reaction. 

But but but....REMEMBER THE JAGS!

[Sierra Foothills]

7 minutes ago, jletha said:

I feel like Buffalo under McD doesnt often fall victim to trap games. We generally beat bad teams down handily. Its usually a talking point that our stats are inflated against bad teams.

 

I believe you're correct... McDermott's Bills have been very consistent performance-wise... with only a few exceptions.

 

6 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

Your yearly reminder that there is no statistical data to back up the "trap game" myth. It's only a fan anxiety reaction. 

 

It's kind of a semantic thing... what if we call it a "possible upset?"

 

[mannc]

10 minutes ago, jletha said:

I feel like Buffalo under McD doesnt often fall victim to trap games. We generally beat bad teams down handily. Its usually a talking point that our stats are inflated against bad teams.

Yeah, this is not the kind of game the Bills are going to lose.