Week 3: Buffalo (-6.5) at Washington

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

(re-posted to fix formatting)

1) Washington QB Sam Howell will be our defense's toughest competition so far. I wouldn’t have guessed that going into the season, with Aaron Rodgers on our schedule, and even a mediocre Garoppolo. Regardless, Howell has been throwing some dimes over the course of the first two weeks - I’m talking about some Josh Allen’esque throws in terms of "wow" factor. His arm is certainly not as strong as Allen's and sometimes it feels like the ball is taking too long to get there, but his placement is incredible. I don’t blame Washington fans for being excited. Look at the following video for an example -  In the second clip, he puts the ball over top of 3 defenders for the Tochdown.
 

 

 

2) I may have to walk back some of my criticism of Bienemy being an Andy Reid puppet. The Washington offense looks fun and they’re averaging 27.5 points per game. What is most impressive to me is their play variety: A variety of screens, crossers, lots of motion, etc. This play pictured below has a bit of everything and really stressed the Broncos defense.

 

 

 

 

3) The Commanders d-line is incredible on paper but has failed to live up the hype… until this year. Through 2 games, Young, Sweat, Payne and Allen have combined for 25 QB pressures, and the defense as a whole had 37 pressures against the Broncos in Week 2 alone. Our o-line will have a challenge on their hands this week.
 

 

4) Washington often turns to what they call a "Buffalo nickel". They essentially substitute a LB for a third safety who plays near the line. The idea is that a safety will cover better than a linebacker, but is a more skilled tackler than a cornerback. Middle ground, so to speak. This is usually Kam Curl who is 6'2 and 200 pounds. If you think this looks a lot like Cover 0, you're not alone. That was my initial thought until I saw the interview by Massare and Bundt with a Commanders fan/analyst on Twitter. Anyway, it leaves the third level vulnerable with only one safety playing deep. Kincaid could have a big game exploiting the middle when Washington goes into Buffalo nickel.
 

 

 

5) All that being said, this start by the Commanders has the feeling of one of those false-hope drought-era teams to me. You remember the ones that started 3-0 or 4-0 and then fell apart? (looking at you, 2007 Bills squad)

 

great post

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

Edited September 20, 2023 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[NewEra]

46 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

What I think we be the battle to watch if our O line versus their D Line.  Honestly i feel better about rookie Torrence than anyone else on our O Line.  Also we could really use a healthy Leonard Floyd and our D Line might have a field day..

For sure. Most of our games will come down to our OL vs the opposing DL.  I can’t see a replay of the raider game happening though.  I think we should knox and kincaid chip and release the majority of the game.  Their LBs are meh and I think there can be a ton of yards had m chipping and releasing.  TEs and cook.  
 

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, Einstein said:

(re-posted to fix formatting)

1) Washington QB Sam Howell will be our defense's toughest competition so far. I wouldn’t have guessed that going into the season, with Aaron Rodgers on our schedule, and even a mediocre Garoppolo. Regardless, Howell has been throwing some dimes over the course of the first two weeks - I’m talking about some Josh Allen’esque throws in terms of "wow" factor. His arm is certainly not as strong as Allen's and sometimes it feels like the ball is taking too long to get there, but his placement is incredible. I don’t blame Washington fans for being excited. Look at the following video for an example -  In the second clip, he puts the ball over top of 3 defenders for the Tochdown.
 

 

 

2) I may have to walk back some of my criticism of Bienemy being an Andy Reid puppet. The Washington offense looks fun and they’re averaging 27.5 points per game. What is most impressive to me is their play variety: A variety of screens, crossers, lots of motion, etc. This play pictured below has a bit of everything and really stressed the Broncos defense.

 

 

 

 

3) The Commanders d-line is incredible on paper but has failed to live up the hype… until this year. Through 2 games, Young, Sweat, Payne and Allen have combined for 25 QB pressures, and the defense as a whole had 37 pressures against the Broncos in Week 2 alone. Our o-line will have a challenge on their hands this week.
 

 

4) Washington often turns to what they call a "Buffalo nickel". They essentially substitute a LB for a third safety who plays near the line. The idea is that a safety will cover better than a linebacker, but is a more skilled tackler than a cornerback. Middle ground, so to speak. This is usually Kam Curl who is 6'2 and 200 pounds. If you think this looks a lot like Cover 0, you're not alone. That was my initial thought until I saw the interview by Massare and Bundt with a Commanders fan/analyst on Twitter. Anyway, it leaves the third level vulnerable with only one safety playing deep. Kincaid could have a big game exploiting the middle when Washington goes into Buffalo nickel.
 

 

 

5) All that being said, this start by the Commanders has the feeling of one of those false-hope drought-era teams to me. You remember the ones that started 3-0 or 4-0 and then fell apart? (looking at you, 2007 Bills squad)

 

This has the look of Mike White hype and then he faced the Bills.

[FLFan]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

This has the look of Mike White hype and then he faced the Bills.

Yes, or Gardiner Minshew or Bailey Zappe or etc.  He will face a real defense on Sunday, so we will see where he is.  

[Low Positive]

3 minutes ago, FLFan said:

Yes, or Gardiner Minshew or Bailey Zappe or etc.  He will face a real defense on Sunday, so we will see where he is.  

You guys remember this thread?

Zappe reminded @Einstein of Tom Brady. Then the very next week they played the Bears on Monday Night Football. Mac Jones stunk up the joint, causing Pats fans to chant for Zappe. Zappe came in and played worse. Life comes at you fast in the NFL.

Edited September 20, 2023 by FrenchConnection

[mannc]

This is just not the kind of game the Bills have lost during the latter part of the McDermott era.  I think Washington will do well just to keep it close. 

Edited September 20, 2023 by mannc

[GETTOTHE50]

3 hours ago, NickelCity said:

 

Will our offense kind of way to mitigate their strong DLine? That's the biggest question to me.

 

If Dorsey utilizes the play action, short, and screen games with some RB tosses and counter, then they shouldnt be an issue. Need to gas them out and keep them on their toes. 

[FLFan]

1 minute ago, FrenchConnection said:

You guys remember this thread?

 

I remember the general discussion but did not remember the OP on that one.  Perfect.  

[Einstein]

32 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

This has the look of Mike White hype and then he faced the Bills.

Hope you're right. But I don't recall Mike White ever making the high level of throws that Howell has put on tape.

[Mango]

On 9/19/2023 at 11:13 AM, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

NFL Week 3 Power Rankings 2023:

 

7. Buffalo Bills (1-1)

Week 2 ranking: 9

Player: WR Gabe Davis
Current contract situation: Under contract through the 2023 season

Davis is playing on the final year of his rookie deal after the Bills drafted him in the fourth round of the 2020 draft. Davis suffered a high ankle sprain prior to Week 2 last season and finished with 48 catches for 836 yards and seven touchdowns but was often targeted on throws downfield and had nine drops. Davis is a strong run-blocker, was named a team captain for the first time in 2023 and has eight catches for 124 yards and a score so far this season. His future in Buffalo will depend on what he wants in a contract and if the Bills think he is the best option to pair with Stefon Diggs going forward. 

 

4. Miami Dolphins (2-0)

Week 2 ranking: 5

Player: QB Tua Tagovailoa
Current contract situation: Under contract through the 2024 season

There might not be a bigger contract situation to monitor in the NFL -- literally. After Joe Burrow reset the market on Day 1 of the 2023 season, Tagovailoa could do the same next spring. He will play on the fifth year of his rookie contract in 2024, but he's a betting favorite for NFL MVP through the first two weeks of this season, according to Caesars Sportsbook. If he keeps this up, expect the Dolphins to shell out more money than they've ever given a player in team history.

 

18. Cincinnati Bengals (0-2)

 

5. Kansas City Chiefs (1-1)

 

21. New York Jets (1-1)

Week 2 ranking: 12

Player: DE Bryce Huff
Current contract situation: Under contract through the 2023 season

Huff is an excellent pass-rushing specialist, but he probably will walk after the season because the Jets already have invested heavily at the position. They used first-round picks on Will McDonald IV (2023) and Jermaine Johnson (2022). Huff recorded the highest pressure percentage (25.6%) in 2022 among edge rushers with at least 100 pass-rushing snaps. Huff has drawn trade interest in the past; the question is whether the Jets would part with him before the trading deadline if they fall out of contention.

 

24. New England Patriots (0-2)

Week 2 ranking: 17

Player: OLB Matthew Judon
Current contract situation: Under contract through the 2024 season

Judon signed a four-year, $56 million deal in March of 2021. After an adjustment this year that boosted his 2023 pay by borrowing from his 2024 salary, Judon is likely to be back at the negotiating table in the offseason for another adjustment because his 2024 base salary is just $6.5 million. The Patriots had a similar situation with CB Stephon Gilmore in 2020. Judon totaled 15.5 sacks last season and 12.5 in 2021, becoming just the fourth player in Patriots history to post back-to-back seasons with double-digit sacks.

 

This is fair I think. 

As a fan I think the season is more fun to go through 17 weeks as like the 10th ranked team in the league. Being thought of as the best or second best team means that you are trying to live up to these really high expectation. And more often than not the best team in the league doesn't necessarily play the best football in the league that week. 

Last season I felt like a prisoner of expectations. Unless we were lights out we weren't the best. And if we weren't the best we failed. 

It is kind of like the Olympics, most bronze medalists are happier than silver medalists. Silver medalists generally think a lot of "well what if....then I could have won". Bronze medalists think "Woah, look what I did. That was sweet".

[Goin Breakdown]

It's official Howell is elite and will torch the Bills. Hand the commandopes the dubs. 

[Warcodered]

 

[Scott7975]

 

[MikePJ76]

I'm going to watch the first two washington games tonight after I get done working.  They seem like a very talented physical team with an OC who has a ton of experience against buffalo and a head coach who knows everything about Mcdermott....i guess that is a two way street though.

[Mr Wild]

44 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

 

2023-24 Season Record

Blue on White 1-0

White on White 0-0

Blue on Blue 0-1

 

Historic Uniform Record (since not Navy)

Since 2011- Blue on White 43-26

Since 2011- White on White 20-28-1

Since 2012- White on White (Throwback) 8-4

Since 2012- White on Blue 16-22

Since 2014- Blue on Blue 18-9

Since 2015- Red on Red 7-2

 

Josh Allen Uniform Record

Blue on White 17-7

White on White 13-7-1

White on White (Throwback) 3-2

White on Blue 10-8

Blue on Blue 12-6

Red on Red 5-1

 

Primetime Historic Uniform Record (No Saturday Nights)

Blue on White   0-2         TNF 0-0                SNF 0-0                MNF 0-2

White on White 1-1-1     TNF 0-0                SNF 1-0                MNF 1-1-1

White on Blue   3-3         TNF 1-2                SNF 1-0                MNF 1-1

Blue on Blue     3-1         TNF 1-0                 SNF 1-0                MNF 1-1

Red on Red       2-0         TNF 1-0                SNF 1-0                MNF 0-0

 

Playoffs Uniform Record

Blue on White 3-0

White on White 0-1

White on Blue 0-3

Blue on Blue 1-1

[ColoradoBills]

2 hours ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

Josh is sounding different in these last few pressers IMO.  He sounds more "business like".  More serious.

I think it's a good thing.  Whatever happened behind closed door and in Josh's mind from that Jets game to the Raiders may be the best thing

to happen to him and the team.

 

If he can keep it this up he will scare a lot of people.  

[eball]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

This has the look of Mike White hype and then he faced the Bills.

 

Mike White played at South Florida and Western Kentucky.  Sam Howell played in a power conference and set records at his school (UNC).

 

Yeah, they're not at all similar.

[RyanC883]

2 hours ago, NewEra said:

For sure. Most of our games will come down to our OL vs the opposing DL.  I can’t see a replay of the raider game happening though.  I think we should knox and kincaid chip and release the majority of the game.  Their LBs are meh and I think there can be a ton of yards had m chipping and releasing.  TEs and cook.  
 

 

wonder if we see more Murray this game also.  He can block and release also.  A couple intermediate and short options with Diggs or Davis long.  

[Royale with Cheese]

It's hard to tell if Washington is good or not.  The Cardinals are terrible and the Broncos still seem to be a mess.  It's the norm for Payton to have bad defenses.