THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Mistake-free Josh

[Shaw66]

41 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Let's not forget that this huge increase in 12 personnel is going to take some getting a feel for in terms of philosophical change to the offense as well...last year we were one of the lowest, if not THE lowest, in terms of using 12 personnel.  This year so far we are #1 by a country mile in terms of 12 personnel.  

 

I don't think it's unfair to say Dorsey is still getting a feel for how to use this package to their advantage best and probably will continue to learn and adjust over the course of the first 8-10 weeks, I would imagine.

This is a good point.   I don't really understand formation strategy, and I think that in the Bills case it's maybe a little overstated.  What the Bills have done is had a personnel change more than a formation strategy change.  They've gone from a small, speedy slot to a big slot.  I know that overstates the change, because the Kincaid guy runs different routes than the Beas or McKenzie.  Still, I agree with your point - the Bills are trying to figure out how to use Kincaid, and Allen is trying to figure out where to find him and when he's open.   I agree that it's a couple months of work to refine the passing package with this new weapon.

 

At the Raiders game there was a really interesting moment.  I think it was in the third quarter drive for a field goal, after the Milano interception.  Allen found Kincaid over the middle for 12.  It looked and felt like those completions they had in preseason, where Kincaid ran straight upfield and made a break and hooked to catch the pass.  Nice route, nice throw, easy 12 yards.   What was interesting to me was that the crowd cheered, but not in the way the crowd usually would cheer a 12-yard completion.  This cheer clearly said the same thing I was thinking:  "Yes!  There it is!"   I think the comparison to Kelce is overstated, but it was the kind of completion to the tight end that Kelce gets.   Up until that point in the game, Kincaid pretty much had been catching the typical tight-end easy-five-yard catches after a release into the flat.  Every tight end runs those and catches those.   I mean, they're nice completions to have, but you don't have to draft a guy in the first round to get them.   They are quintessential take-what-the-defense-is-giving-you plays.  The catch over the middle LOOKED different.  Knox doesn't run that route - it was tighter, more efficient, much more like what you see from a wideout, but the wideouts aren't lined up in positions that allow them to attack the middle in that way.   A lot of people in the stands saw it, and the cheers said, "That's what I've been talking about."  

 

So, yeah, I think there's some experimenting and some discovery that is going to continue over the next couple of months.  It's work that each of Dorsey, Kincaid, and Allen have to do.  And if they're successful, which means if they show defenses that Allen get 10 to 20 yards over the middle like that, that the Bills can attack that area of the field in a way that they've never done before, Diggs and Davis will be the beneficiaries.  

Edited September 19, 2023 by Shaw66

[transplantbillsfan]

On 9/18/2023 at 7:09 AM, Shaw66 said:

 

Here’s the simple proof.  Patrick Mahomes is a great QB.  He and Josh Allen are the only QBs in the league who regularly do magical thinks on the field.  All the other QBs are just football players; every week, Mahomes and Allen make throws that are among the top highlights on every network.  What’s the difference between the two?   Well, about five years ago, Mahomes stopped making stupid plays.  That’s the difference.

 

 

 

 

Great post as always, Shaw.  But Mahomes never STOPPED making stupid plays.  He still does it.  Just look at his game last year against Denver in Denver.

 

But that just doesn't mean much.  Mahomes will have more games where he makes stupid plays, just like Josh will.

 

I think the real difference is that in 2021 after a Josh Allen like stretch (according to the national media) of about 7 games to start the season where he was pretty mediocre (15 TDs and 11 Turnovers), he figured out he had to play a different style of game and take what the defenses give him.  

 

That's what Josh has needed to do.  Sunday it looks like that's what he did.  It doesn't mean he can't still push the ball down the field and make mistakes, but it has to stop being all or nothing for Josh like it was in the 2nd half of week 1.

 

I'm calling week 1 a mulligan.  If our week 2 offense and QB is what we get for the rest of the year, it'll be the best season of Josh's young career.

[BigAl2526]

19 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Yes, that could be what White is thinking.   But implicit in what he was saying that when Josh is good, he's so good that you can afford to have a QB who has those games.  I think most coaches would say that no one is so great that you can afford to have him give away a couple of games a year.   That is, if the coach knows that his QB is going to lose two games a season for you, the coach would tell the GM they need a new QB. 

 

Elam is a similar case.  Talent that isn't doing the job the way the coaches want.  Obviously different, but similar in that sense.  The team isn't going to keep playing Elam if they don't think he can do the job the right way.  They won't keep Allen, either, if they don't believe that he can reshaped into a guy who makes decisions the right way.   

 

Allen's a smart guy.  McDermott's not stupid, either.  I don't think there's any way McDermott thinks that Allen is a finished product.  

 

 

I agree.  There is no reason to think Allen is a finished product.  If Jeremy White's point is that Allen will remain a Bill for the foreseeable future and that his athletic gifts are worth the occasional lapses in poise, I kind of agree.  Allen's gifts are virtually unmatched.  How McDermott and company would feel about that, I couldn't say, but I think they agree with me (and you) that Allen is still learning, and he may yet learn to play with more poise game in and game out.

[Shaw66]

12 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

So, does the nightmare drives to/from the stadium improve after Sunday, or is everybody screwed for the next 3 years. Living in WNY and you have to leave for the stadium by 4am?

I don't know, but I think they will improve.   Traffic engineering is a science, like anything else.  They have data about what opening day traffic is like, but they only could guess how people would approach the stadium area given that those Abbott Road lots are no longer there.   They now have the opening day data, and I'm sure they'll make some traffic adjustments to avoid the mess.  After all, people should now be parking farther from the stadium, given the lot closing.  

 

It'll get better.  

[Shaw66]

32 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Great post as always, Shaw.  But Mahomes never STOPPED making stupid plays.  He still does it.  Just look at his game last year against Denver in Denver.

 

But that just doesn't mean much.  Mahomes will have more games where he makes stupid plays, just like Josh will.

 

I think the real difference is that in 2021 after a Josh Allen like stretch (according to the national media) of about 7 games to start the season where he was pretty mediocre (15 TDs and 11 Turnovers), he figured out he had to play a different style of game and take what the defenses give him.  

 

That's what Josh has needed to do.  Sunday it looks like that's what he did.  It doesn't mean he can't still push the ball down the field and make mistakes, but it has to stop being all or nothing for Josh like it was in the 2nd half of week 1.

 

I'm calling week 1 a mulligan.  If our week 2 offense and QB is what we get for the rest of the year, it'll be the best season of Josh's young career.

Oh, yeah!.  Allen's discipline on Sunday was excellent.  He really managed the team well, because he was making the easy play so often.  If he keeps doing that, his greatness will really emerge.  I always compare him to Elway, who played several seasons without really getting the same Superman approach under control.  Finally, at the end of his career, he did it, and then he really could dominate.  The combination of making the right decisions and having special physical skills to make the plays is spectacular.  

 

And I hear you about Mahomes.  Others have said it.  He makes some dumbass plays, too.  I think the difference is that Mahomes generally stays on script in terms of taking the easy throw.  Allen's problem is when he goes off script, his completion percentage drops, and that makes long drive's difficult.  Sunday, he just kept taking the easy throws, his percentage went up, and the ball kept moving.  Mahomes has the higher completion percentage. 

[stuvian]

Probably the smoothest game I've seen in the McDermott - Beane era.

 

Short effective passes that didn't expose Josh.

 

Positive yardage on practically every run play.

 

Stuffing Josh Jacobs for negative yardage.

 

Solid pass rush courtesy of great secondary play.

 

Starting to feel like we are hitting on all cylinders.