Josh is accurate

[transplantbillsfan]

23 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It's an incorrect argument. I'm not overstating it. Incorrect is incorrect.

 

One of my favorite examples of this is Archie Manning. He was known for being quite accurate. His completion percentage numbers were not especially good and showed a lot of variance as well. This is because there are a ton of factors that go into completion percentage far beyond accuracy.

 

 

 

Holy crap dude...

 

Did you seriously just bring in a QB who's last game was 40 years ago and who's had 2 sons who've already retired from the league to make your argument that my argument isn't valid?

 

Are you this desperate?

 

And while we're at it... are you even old enough to have watched Archie Manning? If not.... do you realize the ridiculous irony in you making this argument?

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Holy crap dude...

 

Did you seriously just bring in a QB who's last game was 40 years ago and who's had 2 sons who've already retired from the league to make your argument that my argument isn't valid?

 

Are you this desperate?

 

And while we're at it... are you even old enough to have watched Archie Manning? If not.... do you realize the ridiculous irony in you making this argument?

 

 

Typical you. Moving the goal posts, a Transy special. He asked for a QB who fulfilled requirements. I gave him a quick and excellent answer that fulfilled those requirements.

 

Am I old enough to have watched Manning? Yes, of course I am, not that it's any of your business, you little snotball. Should've been very obvious to anyone from the way I wrote the answer. Well, anyone with a clue, anyway.

 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

On 9/22/2023 at 6:44 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

YAC alone isn't a well-targeted accuracy stat, but YAC combined with Completion % is pretty darn good.

 

You're being pretty silly.

 

 

 

I see, "YAC combined with Completion Percentage is pretty darned good," you say.

 

Fine.

 

In 2022, Josh Allen was 31st in YAC/completion. Of QBs with more than 200 attempts, he was 23rd in Completion Percentage. That averages out to 27th.

 

Congratulations, your dumb method conclusively proves that Allen in 2022 was the 27th most accurate QB in the league. 

 

In 2021, Josh Allen was again 31st in YAC/completion. Of QBs with more than 200 attempts that year, he was 22nd at Completion Percentage.  That averages out to 26.5. 

 

And congrats again, your method shows he was the 26.5th most accurate QB in the NFL in 2021.

 

The method is dumb. Pure dumbness.

 

There is a reason there is no stat called "Accuracy." The reason being there's no stat or stats that do a good job showing accuracy consistently. It's a concept 

 

But thanks for letting us know how inaccurate Josh is. I'd personally strongly disagree, but hey, your method, your business.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 23, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Buffalo Boy]

🙄😮😑😢🤫

 

It OK to have nice things. 

[finn]

On 9/21/2023 at 7:57 AM, Chaos said:

Josh's decision making is elite as well.  He is the only QB held to the level of perfection  The great decision makers Burrows and Mahomes, also had double digit interceptions last year (and their teams had to punt more often than the Bills).      What Josh has not had is consistent protection.  If the protection holds up as it did against the raiders, he will make great decisions.  If it is like the Jets, his decision making won't seem as good. 

It's always a puzzle to me how commentators blithely compare quarterbacks--all the usual stats--without taking into account the play of their receivers, running backs, and lines, and whoever is calling the plays. Yes, a truly great QB will stand out despite weaknesses in all these areas (arguably Allen is one), but OF COURSE it matters if one QB is throwing to two or three stud receivers while the next QB has none, or the first is playing behind a stellar line and the next is dodging rushers on every play, and so on. 

 

You have to wonder what nobodies would have been stars with better protection, receivers, backs, and/or coaching, and what Hall of Famers would have been nobodies without at least some of these benefits. 

[Chaos]

4 minutes ago, finn said:

It's always a puzzle to me how commentators blithely compare quarterbacks--all the usual stats--without taking into account the play of their receivers, running backs, and lines, and whoever is calling the plays. Yes, a truly great QB will stand out despite weaknesses in all these areas (arguably Allen is one), but OF COURSE it matters if one QB is throwing to two or three stud receivers while the next QB has none, or the first is playing behind a stellar line and the next is dodging rushers on every play, and so on. 

 

You have to wonder what nobodies would have been stars with better protection, receivers, backs, and/or coaching, and what Hall of Famers would have been nobodies without at least some of these benefits. 

I think head coach is somewhat of a proxy for the quality of the assets surrounding the QB and tend to consider QB / Coach combo  in the greatness concept. Montana/Walsh,Young/Walsh, Brady/Bellichek, Mahomes/Reid, Kelly/Levy, Elway/Shanahan

 

Peyton Manning and Ben Rothelisberger both won multiple super bowls with different head coaches, so clearly QBs can transcend coaching limitations. 
 

In recent decades the QB most limited by his supporting cast may have been Aaron Rodgers. In his peak years his play was as good as anyone who ever played the position 

 

 

[PrimeTime101]

On 9/17/2023 at 9:30 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

Highest completion percentage through 2 games of any QB in the NFL.

 

76.9%

 

You are sneaky good at what you do... You bring up great flicks of JA playing really well and at the same time knowing the title of this thread is going to bring up controversy. That is sneaky.. and you now your going to have Bulls on this board that are going to come at you... You new EXACTLY the whirlwind you were going to create the second you made this post lol.

On 9/22/2023 at 4:40 AM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

It's an incorrect argument. I'm not overstating it. Incorrect is incorrect.

 

One of my favorite examples of this is Archie Manning. He was known for being quite accurate. His completion percentage numbers were not especially good and showed a lot of variance as well. This is because there are a ton of factors that go into completion percentage far beyond accuracy.

 

 

I usually do not involve myself with the "heavyweights" on the board when they go back and forth. I usually just stick to reading and learning and silently evolving my own personal opinion on the matter but there are two things that are driving me nuts that you have done on this thread that I feel like I have to bring out.

 

1. Brining up what @transplantbillsfan said about Tyrod Taylor. Who gives a crap what he said about Tyrod Taylor 6-7 years ago? It does not matter if his way of thinking things out differs/same from Tyrod. We not talking about Tyrod. And then you bring up Archie Manning. I mean holy crap the game has changed so much since he played?  Can we keep this just about Josh Allen? lol?

 

2. Just because someone looks at things a different way, does not make them right or wrong or make it Right or Wrong. Its a point of view. Accuracy is about point of view because there is no stat called accuracy (I think you were the one that made that point and I agree)

 

To @transplantbillsfan and @Thurman#1

 

There is no right or no wrong when people post about things like Accuracy in the NFL.

 

To my point of view

There is no real way of judging accuracy in the NFL. Accuracy is not just about completion % Its killing me to bring up this name in these forums buuuuuuut... Tom Brady had one of the better fade throws in football. Josh Allen uses his arm strength to get the ball where it needs to go. Does that make one player more accurate then another? No.. its just that players do things in different ways.

 

I think in some ways you are both right and both wrong.... but I highly respect the heck out of the both of you. Now I will Sit back... Enjoy my popcorn while the heavyweights get back at it.

 

you may continue lol. 

[Motorin']

On 9/18/2023 at 2:31 AM, GunnerBill said:

I don't think accuracy was the problem at the Jets. It was all mental. Decision making. Not just when to go deep and what to go short but also when to trust the protection, when to bail the pocket, when to run. 

 

 

On 9/18/2023 at 8:51 AM, Big Turk said:

 

In Joe Burrow's first game last year he threw 4 INT's against the Steelers and singlehandedly gave them the victory on a day their offense couldn't do anything.

 

These types of games are understandable week 1 against really physical and aggressive defenses after not seeing live action for almost 9 months.

 

In the 2021 season opener against the Steelers Josh was missing wide open receivers all game and was freaking out a bit in the pocket... By the time the playoffs hit he had his game against New England and that OT classic against KC.

 

 

[HalftimeAdjustment]

In both games this year I felt that Josh was more accurate than last year, based on the eye test. There seemed to be fewer guys stretching or scooping balls off the turf. My guess is that the off-season allowed his elbow to get rest and it helped in a subtle way. Generally the ball seemed to be going where he meant to throw it. Hopefully that continues.

[Sierra Foothills]

2 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:

You are sneaky good at what you do... You bring up great flicks of JA playing really well and at the same time knowing the title of this thread is going to bring up controversy. That is sneaky.. and you now your going to have Bulls on this board that are going to come at you... You new EXACTLY the whirlwind you were going to create the second you made this post lol.

I usually do not involve myself with the "heavyweights" on the board when they go back and forth. I usually just stick to reading and learning and silently evolving my own personal opinion on the matter but there are two things that are driving me nuts that you have done on this thread that I feel like I have to bring out.

 

1. Brining up what @transplantbillsfan said about Tyrod Taylor. Who gives a crap what he said about Tyrod Taylor 6-7 years ago? It does not matter if his way of thinking things out differs/same from Tyrod. We not talking about Tyrod. And then you bring up Archie Manning. I mean holy crap the game has changed so much since he played?  Can we keep this just about Josh Allen? lol?

 

2. Just because someone looks at things a different way, does not make them right or wrong or make it Right or Wrong. Its a point of view. Accuracy is about point of view because there is no stat called accuracy (I think you were the one that made that point and I agree)

 

To @transplantbillsfan and @Thurman#1

 

There is no right or no wrong when people post about things like Accuracy in the NFL.

 

To my point of view

There is no real way of judging accuracy in the NFL. Accuracy is not just about completion % Its killing me to bring up this name in these forums buuuuuuut... Tom Brady had one of the better fade throws in football. Josh Allen uses his arm strength to get the ball where it needs to go. Does that make one player more accurate then another? No.. its just that players do things in different ways.

 

I think in some ways you are both right and both wrong.... but I highly respect the heck out of the both of you. Now I will Sit back... Enjoy my popcorn while the heavyweights get back at it.

 

you may continue lol. 

 

Thank you.

 

And let's stay away from the personal attacks too.

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

19 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Typical you. Moving the goal posts, a Transy special. He asked for a QB who fulfilled requirements. I gave him a quick and excellent answer that fulfilled those requirements.

 

Am I old enough to have watched Manning? Yes, of course I am, not that it's any of your business, you little snotball. Should've been very obvious to anyone from the way I wrote the answer. Well, anyone with a clue, anyway.

 

 

With anyone else, I would have laughed at this obvious joke.

 

I don't know if you actually have a sense of humor, though.

 

Don't worry, I won't report a CoC violation.

 

 

I think now that I I understand you're an old man (no offense to anyone around 60 or above), your posts over the years make complete sense.

 

I don't think the phrase "you can't teach an old dog new tricks" is true for all old dogs... but a lot of old dogs are pretty darn stuck in their ways. 

 

You must be one of those latter dogs.

 

But keep going with your formula of just saying I'm wrong while giving nebulous half responses... at least it's entertaining some posters. 

[Buffalo716]

Josh is accurate

 

Water is wet

 

Bears piss in woods 

 

Is this an exercise?

[Richard Noggin]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Josh is accurate

 

Water is wet

 

Bears piss in woods 

 

Is this an exercise?

 

I recite this when I meditate, unclothed, in the late-day, low-angle sunlight. The PG "piss" in line 3 tickles me. 

[transplantbillsfan]

Sure would be nice if Davis and Knox made a couple contested catches that were very catchable... including a dropped TD by Knox.

 

Josh still at almost 73% on the year even with that meat on the bone left by some WRs.

 

 

...and as for those who'd complain about the interception, I think this sums it up well:

 

[Thurman#1]

On 9/24/2023 at 2:44 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

With anyone else, I would have laughed at this obvious joke.

 

I don't know if you actually have a sense of humor, though.

 

Don't worry, I won't report a CoC violation.

 

 

I think now that I I understand you're an old man (no offense to anyone around 60 or above), your posts over the years make complete sense.

 

I don't think the phrase "you can't teach an old dog new tricks" is true for all old dogs... but a lot of old dogs are pretty darn stuck in their ways. 

 

You must be one of those latter dogs.

 

But keep going with your formula of just saying I'm wrong while giving nebulous half responses... at least it's entertaining some posters. 

 

 

My posts make sense over the years because I'm older. True enough. Thing is ... as I grew older I kept examining my methods of thought. It's quite clear you haven't looked at your mistakes.

 

You, the young guy, said that Tyrod Taylor was "near -elite." I told you over and over you were wrong. You went on and on about it, how he was going to be the Bills franchise guy for 15 years, how he as top ten, on and on and on and on. Then before the 2018 draft you said Josh Allen had no chance of being a successful NFL QB.

 

So yeah, I think like an older guy, getting wiser with my years. Whereas you have been consistently, relentlessly wrong in virtually all of your opinions about QBs over the years.  You were wrong. I was right. I'll take growing older and learning from mistakes any time time over being younger, wrong and inflexible.

 

The sad thing with you is that you haven't learned from your mistakes. All of your dumber opinions about Tyrod were based on how his completion percentage was high and that was super-important. Then your remarkably bad, sad take on Allen before the draft that there was zero chance he'd ever be a decent NFL QB was also based greatly on how his completion percentage was low and how important that was. Sure, you always moved the goal posts, with nonsense like you did here about throwing other stats in next to completion percentage. But that was dumb thinking then, and it's still dumb thinking now. Consistently through the years you've been horrible on QBs, and a great deal of it comes down to how consistently and sadly you overestimate the importance of Completion Percentage.

 

 

 

Oh, and once again, thanks for coming up with the formula you suggested above ("accuracy combined with YAC," dunderheaded on the face of it in that it's not "accuracy," it's completion percentage). That formula rates Josh Allen's accuracy in 2021 and 2022 as 27th best in the league. 

 

Most people think Josh is quite a bit more accurate than that, but I'm sure we all really appreciate having it proven by you that he was one of the least accurate in the league the last couple of years. 

 

'Preciate the knowledge bomb. 27th most accurate QB in the league, two years running. Got it!!! I can only stand in the radiance of your intellect.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 25, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

 

On 9/22/2023 at 7:09 PM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

But Josh has quite a few more throws that are seriously off target than say Brady or Manning who you mention here.

 

Does he miss a throw or two now and then? Yeah, as does everybody. But Josh has wild throws more often than most.

 

Look at the throw to Diggs on the slant at Q1 12:35 in the Jets game, way behind him. Or Q1 9:15 against the Jets. Short little pass across the middle, open, thrown to the defender. Probably five to six feet left and high on a pass to a guy four feet beyond the LOS.

 

I'm 50/50 about listing the first pass in OT. Knox was pretty open and the pass hit the ground, but it probably wasn't quite bad enough to make this list. Same with the throw right at the end of the first half that would have been a TD if he'd put a little air under it. Not a great throw but fairly tough. I'm not even listing the INTs, two of which were bad throws as well as bad decisions.

 

But those two throws were just bad. And Allen has a history of that. Nobody's perfect or even very close. Allen is more inconsistent than most accurate QBs.

 

Did Josh throw a lot of accurate passes also against the Jets? Yeah, he did. 

 

 

On 9/22/2023 at 10:52 PM, Scott7975 said:

 

It hit the ground after going through [Knox's] hands. Those types of catches as well as the other handful of passes that you listed can be found by any QB just about any game. I would say that there are QBs that are more consistent with ball placement than Josh, but the difference isn't that drastic.

 

 

Again, I did not list that Knox catch in the end. It certainly was not a good or particularly accurate throw, but it wasn't bad enough 

 

But the two throws I did list were absolutely not present "in just about any game" from an accurate QB. Both were very short passes. Both completely out of reach of the WR. And the ball to Cook was right to a defender, who luckily didn't hold onto it. I listed them again below:

 

Look at the throw to Diggs on the slant at Q1 12:35 in the Jets game, way behind him. Or Q12 at  9:15 to Cook against the Jets. Short little pass across the middle, open, thrown to the defender. Probably five to six feet left and high on a pass to a guy four feet beyond the LOS.

 

 

Edited September 25, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

On 9/23/2023 at 9:22 PM, PrimeTime101 said:

You are sneaky good at what you do... You bring up great flicks of JA playing really well and at the same time knowing the title of this thread is going to bring up controversy. That is sneaky.. and you now your going to have Bulls on this board that are going to come at you... You new EXACTLY the whirlwind you were going to create the second you made this post lol.

I usually do not involve myself with the "heavyweights" on the board when they go back and forth. I usually just stick to reading and learning and silently evolving my own personal opinion on the matter but there are two things that are driving me nuts that you have done on this thread that I feel like I have to bring out.

 

1. Brining up what @transplantbillsfan said about Tyrod Taylor. Who gives a crap what he said about Tyrod Taylor 6-7 years ago? It does not matter if his way of thinking things out differs/same from Tyrod. We not talking about Tyrod. And then you bring up Archie Manning. I mean holy crap the game has changed so much since he played?  Can we keep this just about Josh Allen? lol?

 

2. Just because someone looks at things a different way, does not make them right or wrong or make it Right or Wrong. Its a point of view. Accuracy is about point of view because there is no stat called accuracy (I think you were the one that made that point and I agree)

 

To @transplantbillsfan and @Thurman#1

 

There is no right or no wrong when people post about things like Accuracy in the NFL.

 

To my point of view

There is no real way of judging accuracy in the NFL. Accuracy is not just about completion % Its killing me to bring up this name in these forums buuuuuuut... Tom Brady had one of the better fade throws in football. Josh Allen uses his arm strength to get the ball where it needs to go. Does that make one player more accurate then another? No.. its just that players do things in different ways.

 

I think in some ways you are both right and both wrong.... but I highly respect the heck out of the both of you. Now I will Sit back... Enjoy my popcorn while the heavyweights get back at it.

 

you may continue lol. 

 

 

You're very kind. I don't consider myself a heavyweight, and certainly not Transie either. Kick in any time, I enjoy your posts.

 

As to your points, what Transie said about Tyrod Taylor is totally relevant. He made a dumb mistake (that lasted YEARS for him), based on his misunderstaning that completion percentage means accuracy. He just simply would not hear that the reason Taylor had a high completion percentage was that he was throwing shorter more easily completed passes and that teams took a while to learn how to defense him and his completion percentage for his first half season was greatly raised by that.

 

It's pretty much the exact same mistake he has continued making over and over ever since.

 

He look at Allen's college stats and before the draft spent months telling us how awful Allen was going to be as a pro, finally saying he had no chance. Mostly because of completion percentage.

 

And I'm sorry, but the fact that Archie Manning played a long time ago does zero to refute his relevance as an example. You're absolutely right that the game has changed. But tell me, how has accuracy changed since Manning's day? Does it mean something different? Do they judge accuracy differently? Do they calculate completion percentage differently?

 

They do not. He is the classic example on this, a very accurate QB who played on an awful team with a crappy OL and poor receivers. His completion percentage suffered greatly as a result.

 

It's a perfectly good example, and still relevant. But there are plenty more. David Carr was also really accurate, but ended up with poor completion percentages for the same reason. Elway didn't have a good completion percentage. Favre's completion percentage was wildly unstable his whole career. Lamonica was one of the most accurate deep ball guys of all time. Bad completion percentage. Steve Young was accurate. Great completion percentage. Except when he was not in a great situation. Bad completion percentage in the first half of his career, and then a miraculous turnaround where he either became more accurate or found a good team and system to put up excellent completion percentages.

 

John Elway is tied for 115th for career completion percentage. He was a very accurate QB on a really underwhelming offense.

 

Here are Elways' completion percentage rankings for each year of his career:   28th, 14th, 16th, 14th, 18th, 16th, 16th, 6th, 25th, 20th, 3rd, 7th, 16th, 5th, 19th, 11th. By completion percentage he was really average for his time. Which is nonsense.

 

More, Allen himself is a great example. Awful completion percentage in college. Awful his first year in Buffalo. Still bad his second. Excellent his third. Below 20th best in his fourth and fifth years. Unless you think Allen was actually well below average at accuracy among starters the last couple of years, you have to understand that completion percentage just doesn't equal accuracy.

 

It just doesn't.

 

Agreed there's no real way of judging accuracy, certainly by stats. 

 

Have a great Fins week.

Edited September 25, 2023 by Thurman#1

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You're very kind. I don't consider myself a heavyweight, and certainly not Transie either. Kick in any time, I enjoy your posts.

 

As to your points, what Transie said about Tyrod Taylor is totally relevant. He made a dumb mistake (that lasted YEARS for him), based on his misunderstaning that completion percentage means accuracy. He just simply would not hear that the reason Taylor had a high completion percentage was that he was throwing shorter more easily completed passes and that teams took a while to learn how to defense him and his completion percentage for his first half season was greatly raised by that.

 

It's pretty much the exact same mistake he has continued making over and over ever since.

 

He look at Allen's college stats and before the draft spent months telling us how awful Allen was going to be as a pro, finally saying he had no chance. Mostly because of completion percentage.

 

And I'm sorry, but the fact that Archie Manning played a long time ago does zero to refute his relevance as an example. You're absolutely right that the game has changed. But tell me, how has accuracy changed since Manning's day? Does it mean something different? Do they judge accuracy differently? Do they calculate completion percentage differently?

 

They do not. He is the classic example on this, a very accurate QB who played on an awful team with a crappy OL and poor receivers. His completion percentage suffered greatly as a result.

 

It's a perfectly good example, and still relevant. But there are plenty more. David Carr was also really accurate, but ended up with poor completion percentages for the same reason. Elway didn't have a good completion percentage. Favre's completion percentage was wildly unstable his whole career. Lamonica was one of the most accurate deep ball guys of all time. Bad completion percentage. Steve Young was accurate. Great completion percentage. Except when he was not in a great situation. Bad completion percentage in the first half of his career, and then a miraculous turnaround where he either became more accurate or found a good team and system to put up excellent completion percentages.

 

More, Allen himself is a great example. Awful completion percentage in college. Awful his first year in Buffalo. Still bad his second. Excellent his third. Below 20th best in his fourth and fifth years. Unless you think Allen was actually well below average at accuracy among starters the last couple of years, you have to understand that completion percentage just doesn't equal accuracy.

 

It just doesn't.

 

Agreed there's no real way of judging accuracy, certainly by stats. 

 

Have a great Fins week.

Trans has what is called a philosophy. One you never agreed with. One that some here do agree with. I am "in between" on this. BUT. Have you ever been wrong on these boards? Do people constantly slander you? Drop the past buddy.. If you have to bring up past conversations, never was QB's and 40+ to make a point then you are lost.. Again.. In part I agree with you.

 

There are several types of posters on these boards.

1. The Risk taker. The person who is not afraid to give an opinion right, wrong or indifferent. 

2. The Troll

3. The person that sits back and agrees or disagrees to posts

4. The person who feels they need to argue their points to the death (to the point where personal attacks fly)

5. The person that says a little but puts the thumb up or down.

 

 

Months ago @NewEra said it the best and it kind of changed me. If an opinion is going to annoy you so much where you have to lead to personal attacks/deep opinions that tick you off to no end or trolling... then its just best to block the guy for a while before making yourself say things you would regret. 

 

@transplantbillsfan falls into category 1. 

and 

you both are Falling into category 4.

 

This is where I grab both of you by the ear and say.. ENOUGH ALREADY..

lol\

 

Are you done yet?

 

@Thurman#1 and @transplantbillsfan says

 

 

 

I say...

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

 

 

Again, I did not list that Knox catch in the end. It certainly was not a good or particularly accurate throw, but it wasn't bad enough 

 

But the two throws I did list were absolutely not present "in just about any game" from an accurate QB. Both were very short passes. Both completely out of reach of the WR. And the ball to Cook was right to a defender, who luckily didn't hold onto it. I listed them again below:

 

Look at the throw to Diggs on the slant at Q1 12:35 in the Jets game, way behind him. Or Q12 at  9:15 to Cook against the Jets. Short little pass across the middle, open, thrown to the defender. Probably five to six feet left and high on a pass to a guy four feet beyond the LOS.

 

 

yes bad throws are present every game. I could have sworn you listed the Knox throw but I’ll take your word for it. Not a big enough deal for me to check it on my phone. 

[Doc]

13 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

...and as for those who'd complain about the interception, I think this sums it up well:

 

Yup.  A 3rd and 20 isn't easy to convert which means it probably would have been 4th down anyway and a punt.  And this was probably better than a punt.