Josh is accurate

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Yes, he's accurate, although not as consistently so as someone like, say, Brees.

 

But no, completion percentage does not equal accuracy. Not necessarily even very close.

 

Just as an example, in 2008, Trent Edwards was 6th in completion percentage, and less than 2% out of 1st place. It wasn't because he was one of the most accurate throwers in the league.

 

The two have a very basic confluence but there is much more to accuracy.

 

How about accuracy combined with YAC?

 

http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=231

Buffalo currently has 3rd highest YAC in the NFL. Doesn't seem like Allen’s ball placement so far is even remotely an issue in terms of allowing his receivers to keep running 

[Doc Brown]

On 9/17/2023 at 10:28 PM, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

it’s even better if you count the 3 last week to the jets safety. 

This made me laugh out loud.  Well played.

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Hey, how's Tyrod? Is he still "near-elite" as you so famously said? Oh, and aren't you the guy who said before the draft that Josh Allen had no chance whatsoever to be successful?

 

You've showed wildly powerful bias again and again, let's be honest here.

 

It's your M.O.

 

You  have literally spent hundreds of thousands of words, multiple novels worth, on this forum and the other about how Tyrod's high completion percentage showed that he was accurate ... and one of the better QBs in the league.

 

Conflating completion percentage and accuracy was dumb then, it's dumb now, and it will always be dumb.

 

 

Wow... it's been awhile... gonna have to remind myself how I liked the furniture arranged here.

 

But again... I brought up YAC even before your obsessive post. 

 

Josh Allen has the highest completion percentage in the NFL.

 

Josh Allen  receivers have the 3rd most total YAC.

 

Josh Allen has the 10th most passing yards in the NFL.

 

Now... what exactly are you complaining about?

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Yes, he's accurate, although not as consistently so as someone like, say, Brees.

 

 

This is true.... but applies to almost every Quarterback to have ever played the game. Including the likes of Peyton Manning who seemed to do okay as I recall and Patrick Mahomes who isn't too shabby. In my time watching football (21 years now) the only guy I can say "yea he is as accurate as Drew Brees" is Tom Brady. 

 

Basically since clearing up the mechanical issues he had in college during his first couple of proper offseasons (2018 and 2019) Josh has not had any real problems with accuracy. Does he still miss a throw now and again? Sure. Does he still sometimes place a ball in a spot where it makes YAC difficult? Sure. But so does every Quarterback. The Josh Allen issues when they have flared up since then have been much more mental (decision making) and much less technical (accuracy). 

 

[Chaos]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

much more mental (decision making)

Josh's decision making is elite as well.  He is the only QB held to the level of perfection  The great decision makers Burrows and Mahomes, also had double digit interceptions last year (and their teams had to punt more often than the Bills).      What Josh has not had is consistent protection.  If the protection holds up as it did against the raiders, he will make great decisions.  If it is like the Jets, his decision making won't seem as good. 

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Josh's decision making is elite as well.  He is the only QB held to the level of perfection  The great decision makers Burrows and Mahomes, also had double digit interceptions last year (and their teams had to punt more often than the Bills).      What Josh has not had is consistent protection.  If the protection holds up as it did against the raiders, he will make great decisions.  If it is like the Jets, his decision making won't seem as good. 

 

The protection was pretty good against the Jets too. 

[ddaryl]

Nobody really questions Josh's abilities when he focused and doesn't panic.

 

But when things don't going perfect and he starts putting pressure on himself the wheels do come off. That's something nobody here can deny and it has cost us some games and home field advantage. Its not all Josh's fault and we can point out other issues, but that is his kryptonite

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Josh's decision making is elite as well.  He is the only QB held to the level of perfection  The great decision makers Burrows and Mahomes, also had double digit interceptions last year (and their teams had to punt more often than the Bills).      What Josh has not had is consistent protection.  If the protection holds up as it did against the raiders, he will make great decisions.  If it is like the Jets, his decision making won't seem as good. 

his decision making is extremely inconsistent and can be at times the most underwhelming part of his game… this is the whole problem.  It’s always been the thing. That minny game last year. It was still very winnable in ot, but he decided to force a kill shot that got picked. 

 

Vs jets he had a week to throw the first pick into double coverage after rolling out He had nothing but green around him. That wasn’t a line issue.  You could argue the second deep one into double coverage was protection, still a terrible decision, and certainly the under thrown out to Davis wasn’t the line, esp when the flat was there to move the chains. often the protection looks bad because the ball comes out late or doesn’t. 
 

just watch the offense in the jets game vs the Raiders. Both have some elite pass rushing talent. The biggest difference in the two performances was the qb. Everyone saw it, even him. 

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

I'm saying it's understandable, unlike the people who are legitimately upset at someone creating a thread to celebrate a good performance

 

The same people, mind you, who couldn't wait to bury Allen after week 1

 

So you know what, I answered my own question. They're disappointed after that Raiders game. 

 

 

Poor thinking is understandable? I guess we'll have to disagree on that. 

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

How about accuracy combined with YAC?

 

http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=231

Buffalo currently has 3rd highest YAC in the NFL. Doesn't seem like Allen’s ball placement so far is even remotely an issue in terms of allowing his receivers to keep running 

 

 

YAC is also not well-targeted at accuracy. It can mean the passes were accurate. Or that the receiver was really open. Or that the receiver broke a tackle. Or that a pick play knocked the defender off. Or that a screen was well-blocked ....

 

We know about Allen's accuracy, from his last five years. He's often unbelievably accurate, throwing into tiny windows. But then he'll overthrow by a lot or bounce the ball in. He's accurate but not consistent.

 

We already know this. Is it possible he's become more accurate or more consistent this year? Yeah. Unlikely, and not enough sample size, but we may find that to be true as the year goes on. Or not. 

 

Can't really say yet.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

Josh's decision making is elite as well.  He is the only QB held to the level of perfection  The great decision makers Burrows and Mahomes, also had double digit interceptions last year (and their teams had to punt more often than the Bills).      What Josh has not had is consistent protection.  If the protection holds up as it did against the raiders, he will make great decisions.  If it is like the Jets, his decision making won't seem as good. 

 

 

You're kidding yourself here. Does bad protection hurt and good protection help? Sure.

 

But he had a great pocket and plenty of time left on two of the three INTs against the Jets. And decent time in the pocket on the third. He makes bad decisions sometimes. He plays hero ball and that causes a lot of his problems.

 

Still a terrific QB, though, but he could improve.

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

YAC is also not well-targeted at accuracy. It can mean the passes were accurate. Or that the receiver was really open. Or that the receiver broke a tackle. Or that a pick play knocked the defender off. Or that a screen was well-blocked ....

 

YAC alone isn't a well-targeted accuracy stat, but YAC combined with Completion % is pretty darn good.

 

You're being pretty silly.

 

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

We know about Allen's accuracy, from his last five years. He's often unbelievably accurate, throwing into tiny windows. But then he'll overthrow by a lot or bounce the ball in. He's accurate but not consistent.

 

As @GunnerBill said in a previous post, all QBs in history (maybe) not named Tom Brady and Drew Brees fall into this category.

 

[Charles Romes]

Allen’s accuracy has been artificially skewed downward significantly over the years due to playing in the wind tunnel that is the Ralph. He never complains about it. 

[Thurman#1]

On 9/22/2023 at 6:44 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

YAC alone isn't a well-targeted accuracy stat, but YAC combined with Completion % is pretty darn good.

 

You're being pretty silly.

 

 

As @GunnerBill said in a previous post, all QBs in history (maybe) not named Tom Brady and Drew Brees fall into this category.

 

 

 

No. It really isn't. 

 

The problem with accuracy is that there really is not one stat or any combination of stats that equates to it with much consistency. But I mean, kid yourself if you must. You've been pretty excellent at that in the past. 

 

Again, you spent literally hundreds of thousands of words on the forums telling us that these same stats proved that Tyrod Taylor was an excellent quarterback. Hundreds of thousands of words.

 

The stats didn't bear out what you said then. And they don't bear out what you're trying to say now. But again, kid yourself if you must. You have a long and extensive history of vast misunderstanding as to what these stats show about accuracy.

 

 

Edited September 25, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

On 9/21/2023 at 2:20 PM, GoBills808 said:

And I suppose all these people who are so consistent in divesting comp% from accuracy are making similar arguments in threads about Allen being inaccurate😂😂

 

The answer's no, if you were wondering

 

 

Whether someone is making an argument somewhere or not has nothing to do with whether it's a horrible argument.

 

This ... is a horrible argument. It will never not be a horrible argument. 

[Thurman#1]

On 9/21/2023 at 2:23 PM, Sierra Foothills said:

 

While completion percentage and accuracy are not the same thing, please name me the players you think are the most accurate throwers in NFL history and then show me their completion percentages relative to their peers...

 

You don't actually have to do this of course... my point is that you are overstating your argument.

 

 

 

 

It's an incorrect argument. I'm not overstating it. Incorrect is incorrect.

 

One of my favorite examples of this is Archie Manning. He was known for being quite accurate. His completion percentage numbers were not especially good and showed a lot of variance as well. This is because there are a ton of factors that go into completion percentage far beyond accuracy.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

On 9/21/2023 at 12:22 PM, JoPoy88 said:

Nothing what you say is valid, because you’ve plainly shown your bias over many, many threads here since Allen’s arrived.

 

I get it, I like Allen too - who doesn’t? His performance is pivotal to the teams’ potential success. But you’re not a Bills fan, you’re a Josh Allen stan. He is all you ever talk about.
 

Again, tops in accuracy through 2 weeks! Where’s that MVP watch thread? 

 

 

I have to disagree. It's not always Josh. It was Tyrod also. Any Bills QB for more than a few weeks really.

 

But you're dead right. Completion percentage, particularly through two weeks, means very little

 

As a quick example, anyone remember who was tops in completion percentage after two weeks in 2019, with 45 out of 58 completions for a 77.6 percent completion percentage, higher than Josh's this year?

 

That would be Gardner Minshew.

 

Who was riding high in 2015 after two weeks with a completion percentage of 37 out of 49, 75.5?

 

That would be Tyrod.

 

70% after his first three games in 2007 and then 71% after two games in 2008?

 

Trent Edwards.

 

Too small a sample and it's simply not a close enough connection to draw much from. There certainly is some relation. But too many other factors involved in accuracy make this a stat you can't derive accuracy from.

 

 

Edited September 22, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Behindenemylines]

The only true way to compare QBs with an accuracy measurement is to have a very large sample size of each player.  It’s the only way to take out as many variables as possible.  
 

in a smaller sample you need to weight certain factors such as length of pass, weather, receivers etc. (for YAC).  
 

in this regard being accurate assumes the ball is placed to not just make a catch but to also give the receiver the best chance to move the ball forward.  In many instances that portion is negated because a catch only is in the design of the play.  
 

With so many variables that change throughout a game you must take “catch ability” as the true stat in order to compare players.  
 

in Josh’s case he would rank easily in top 5 if not top 3. 

[Thurman#1]

23 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This is true.... but applies to almost every Quarterback to have ever played the game. Including the likes of Peyton Manning who seemed to do okay as I recall and Patrick Mahomes who isn't too shabby. In my time watching football (21 years now) the only guy I can say "yea he is as accurate as Drew Brees" is Tom Brady. 

 

Basically since clearing up the mechanical issues he had in college during his first couple of proper offseasons (2018 and 2019) Josh has not had any real problems with accuracy. Does he still miss a throw now and again? Sure. Does he still sometimes place a ball in a spot where it makes YAC difficult? Sure. But so does every Quarterback. The Josh Allen issues when they have flared up since then have been much more mental (decision making) and much less technical (accuracy). 

 

 

 

Fair enough, Bill, that few if any are as accurate as Brees.

 

But Josh has quite a few more throws that are seriously off target than say Brady or Manning who you mention here.

 

If you find me arguing that Josh has "real problems with accuracy," let me know. I'll know I've been posting drunk. It's why I said that he is accurate in the post you're replying to.

 

Does he miss a throw or two now and then? Yeah, as does everybody. But Josh has wild throws more often than most.

 

Certainly I'm agreed that his biggest issues have been decision-making. But he absolutely has had problems with consistency.

 

Look at the throw to Diggs on the slant at Q1 12:35 in the Jets game, way behind him. Or Q1 9:15 against the Jets. Short little pass across the middle, open, thrown to the defender. Probably five to six feet left and high on a pass to a guy four feet beyond the LOS.

 

I'm 50/50 about listing the first pass in OT. Knox was pretty open and the pass hit the ground, but it probably wasn't quite bad enough to make this list. Same with the throw right at the end of the first half that would have been a TD if he'd put a little air under it. Not a great throw but fairly tough. I'm not even listing the INTs, two of which were bad throws as well as bad decisions.

 

But those two throws were just bad. And Allen has a history of that. Nobody's perfect or even very close. Allen is more inconsistent than most accurate QBs.

 

Did Josh throw a lot of accurate passes also against the Jets? Yeah, he did. 

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

I'm 50/50 about listing the first pass in OT. Knox was pretty open and the pass hit the ground, but it probably wasn't quite bad enough to make this list. Same with the throw right at the end of the first half that would have been a TD if he'd put a little air under it. Not a great throw but fairly tough. I'm not even listing the INTs, two of which were bad throws as well as bad decisions.

 

It hit the ground after going through his hands. Those types of catches as well as the other handful of passes that you listed can be found by any QB just about any game. I would say that there are QBs that are more consistent with ball placement than Josh, but the difference isn't that drastic.