Is Josh a mediocre QB right now? And does it matter?

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

Trade him now!!! SMH

[Beck Water]

16 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

Trade him now!!! SMH

 

You know I love ya, Lieutenant, but the premiere Allen partisan package *is* why some people say it's "out of bounds" to criticize Allen on this board.

 

I don't see it that way. 

 

If a QB who has shown that he's very well capable of better now has some mediocre metrics that are correlated to winning (like TD/INT) along with some that are outright putrid - like being 1 off the league lead for INT (after adjustments for things like maybe he's played more games than the other guys) - then I think fans should be able to talk about it and be concerned, hoping that Josh and the Bills organization have the intestinal fortitude to face it and fix it.

 

 

Edited September 16, 2023 by Beck Water

[Process]

We needed another JA thread. Thank you for this. 

[Beck Water]

9 minutes ago, Process said:

We needed another JA thread. Thank you for this. 

 

You're welcome, anything for my fellow fans!

[AlfaBill]

Who are you people? The answer is no and if you have to create a thread with a bunch of data you shouldn’t be watching football. Sorry fans like you are getting to be obnoxious 

[Nuncha]

7 hours ago, julian said:

Wtf is going on with this fan base

One loss and people losing their minds.  LOL!  They WILL NOT win every game, they will have more losses this year.  

[QLBillsFan]

He’s a top 5 QB capable of winning the SB. Who also needs to dig deep and stop being his own worst enemy. So, no he’s not mediocre 😎!

[TheyCallMeAndy]

7 hours ago, julian said:

Wtf is going on with this fan base

This MB broke after the Bengals game and has been festering pit of toxic negativity ever since. 
 

This place is close to what the original BBMB was before it was shut down. 

[CincyBillsFan]

8 hours ago, Beck Water said:

Now hear me out 😈

 

I started out 'salty' about the "Josh Allen most interceptions in last 2 years".  I said, said I, "but Josh has the most continuous starts of any player, let alone QB - so how does that play into it? And also, he throws a ton of passing TDs, so surely that compensates".   Since I'm a datageek, here's what I did:

-pulled regular season data from 2021, 2022, and 2023 out of pro-football-reference

-Excel pivot table to sum data by QB

-calculate interceptions, TD, 1D, and Yards per game, to normalize data for different numbers of starts

-multiply by 35 games to get it out of decimal form that is hard to interpret when we're used to thinking about integer numbers

 

This actually isn't what  I thought I was going to find.  I thought when normalized by starts, Josh Allen would NOT be leading in # of INT.  And he isn't - but he's one behind Davis Mills, tied with Sam Darnold, and one ahead of Matt Stafford and Andy Dalton.  Yikes!!!!!  That is not actually company you want your 6 yr vet, big-$$ QB to keep!  Or, I thought if he was still "up there", he would also be "up there" in passing TD to compensate.
 

So here are the data.  (Click to make it readable).  Sorted by TD/INT, Josh Allen is currently 17 on the list.  Now obviously, this isn't the be-all end-all of QB evaluation, since some of the QB listed above him by this metric, are literally unemployed at the moment (Trevor Siemian, Carson Wentz), are backups (Case Keenum) or are retired (Brady). 

I recall Mike Tomlin benching Mason Rudolph after a multi-interception game, saying "we just need someone who won't kill us" (with turnovers).  So as a metric for how much a QB contributes to scoring vs. how much a QB hurts the team by ending possessions with the other team in position to score, I thought this was worth looking at.  And by this metric, allen is below starting Rodgers, Purdy, Goff, Cousins. Mahomes, Geno Smith, Burrow, Herbert, WILSON (!!!!!), Hurts, Prescott, and Tua.

 

Thoughts?  (I can sort it by other parameters if anyone cares).

 

FWIW, my thoughts are that Josh's offensive contributions are still strong enough to allow a team to win with him provided they have a good run game and top defense.  But if we're taking Josh out of the run game, and with aging safeties and a new MLB, I'm not sure we have enough of those last two to get there.  So if we want to win, Josh, Joe Brady, and Ken Dorsey better figure it out - and fast.

That may be the data but does it signify anything useful in the real world?  You ask and then answer the question about whether or not the Bills can win with Allen playing as he's playing - "So if we want to win, Josh, Joe Brady, and Ken Dorsey better figure it out - and fast."  Okay fair enough but last year, they were 14 - 4, won the Division and made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs. This seems like winning to me.

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree I basically gave him a mulligan last year for that reason. But then you see some of the same issues this year and you think how much was elbow vs how much is decision making.

You thought that a guy who led the Bills to a 14 - 4 record (reg season & playoffs) and had:

 

4899 total passing yards with 38 total TD passes & 17 INT's

 

808 rushing yards with 8 TD's & 8 lost fumbles

 

For a combined total of 5707 yards, 46 TD's and 25 TO's needs a mulligan for that performance?

 

Now I agree that Allen has to many TO's but his yardage & TD production are elite. Sure, Allen can improve by cutting down the TO's but he didn't need a do over for last season. Keep the production where it is and cut down the TO by 5 and the Bills are likely in the Super Bowl.  That's a far cry from needing a mulligan.

 

 

 

Edited September 17, 2023 by CincyBillsFan

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

4 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

You thought that a guy who led the Bills to a 14 - 4 record (reg season & playoffs) and had:

 

4899 total passing yards with 38 total TD passes & 17 INT's

 

808 rushing yards with 8 TD's & 8 lost fumbles

 

For a combined total of 5707 yards, 46 TD's and 25 TO's needs a mulligan for that performance?

 

Now I agree that Allen has to many TO's but his yardage & TD production are elite. Sure, Allen can improve by cutting down the TO's but he didn't need a do over for last season. Keep the production where it is and cut down the TO by 5 and the Bills are likely in the Super Bowl.  That's a far cry from needing a mulligan.

 

 

 

It’s beyond ridiculous at this point.  All the initial doubters are reveling in the moment.  They’re comfortable being miserable like the past 20+ years.  

[ganesh]

No he is not.  He is an elite QB who had a bad day in the office.  The Jets have his number and that is not a surprise.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:

It’s beyond ridiculous at this point.  All the initial doubters are reveling in the moment.  They’re comfortable being miserable like the past 20+ years.  

I love the Allen has sucked in "back to back" games trope.  I guess strictly speaking they're back to back games but they're also nearly 8 months apart. 

 

And the two games were very different.  Against the Bengals Allen didn't have a TO until a meaningless INT in the closing minutes of the 4th quarter.  The issue for Allen in the Cincy game was that he wasn't his usual wildly productive self.  But that owes more to the disintegration of the O line and the lack of any play-makers not named Diggs in that game. On Monday night t issue was Allen was careless with the ball and his TO's cost them the game.  But Allen DID NOT cost the Bills the Bengals playoff game.

 

You get the sense that if these people are right and Allen has gone the way of Carson Wentz, and I don't believe he has, they will be thrilled to be proven "right". 

 

 

2 minutes ago, ganesh said:

No he is not.  He is an elite QB who had a bad day in the office.  The Jets have his number and that is not a surprise.

Kind of like how the Browns have Burrow's number.

 

[Jimmy Harris 69]

This offense is still too committed to +25 yard plays despite good defenses taking away these plays since the middle of last year. The Bills spent big money on small fast receivers, yet we see Davis out there for the majority of snaps so he can run block, pretend to run block or run time consuming routes. Shorter patterns utilizing the middle of the field would cut down on the hero ball tendencies. Josh ignored open receivers underneath and heaved interceptions against NY.  He is not being coached correctly. The coaches preach patience in public statements but the offense is still out of sink. The bills still can’t seem to draw up a successful running play. Watch the 49ers or other teams that run well. Copy their techniques if we can’t design our own. Why does our running game stink? First down was a horror show on Monday. Get out of the booth Dorsey and get up close and personal with our $200M QB. Wake up!!!

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

https://theathletic.com/4867821/2023/09/16/josh-allen-bills-quarterback-turnovers/

 

Your Gilbride quote is interesting, because when Dorsey was grilled during his presser on how he tries to help settle Josh down ---- one of the things he said he does is call the plays Josh is most comfortable with, the ones he can "do in his sleep"

 

So if I'm interpreting your quot of what Gilbride said correctly, Dorsey may be doing the OPPOSITE of what he should be doing, since the clear, easy to read stuff outside the numbers make Josh most predictable.

 

Isn't it a bit of an oxymoron (or some such term) to say that Allen has not displayed the ability to be patient and then say he can for stretches of time.  If he can, than he has?

 

I probably should have stated it as:

 

Allen for the most part has not displayed the ability to be patient for an extended period of time.  Now whats an extended period.  All game, consecutive games??  I'd be happy with one game, start to finish.

 

My quote was copied and pasted from the article so it's however accurate the writer got it down.

 

So yeah he may be calling the plays Allen likes, but the defense is waiting for him on them.

 

However if he was really calling the plays Allen likes it would be; run left, hurdle LB on 3

[CincyBillsFan]

I find it funny how many people are claiming that Allen won't throw the ball short and over the middle. That he ignores open receivers so he can gun it 25 yards downfield.  Yet look at these stats for Cole Beasley - the ultimate short, middle of the field route running slot WR:

 

2020 & 2021: In 31 games Beasley had 164 receptions on 219 targets.  Seems like Allen has no problem making these types of throws to a WR who catches the ball, runs precise routes and is in the spot he's supposed to be.

 

 

[Southern_Bills]

Josh is having a bad stretch, I can't help but feel like coaching and Diggs is an underlying factor in this though.

 

Maybe I'm wrong and I'm not going to argue with anyone who disagrees, but the entire team just feels off.

[Captain Hindsight]

Ok guys, I have watched every single week one game this week. We are goddamn lucky to have Josh Allen. The QBs in the league are mostly bad. These are the only QB I would feel comfortable trotting out each week

 

Allen 

Mahomes

Burrow (past performance)

Purdy

Hurts

Lawrence

 

Thats it. I would be optimistic with guys like

 

Tua

Cousins 

Dak

Herbert

Goff

 

The level of bad QB play in the NFL is astounding.
 

In the Falcons/Panthers game, Ridder was 3-3 for -11 yards at the end of the 1st quarter. He didn’t surpass 100 yards until 5 mins left in the game. Byrce Young was the most timid passer I’ve seen since Trentative 

 

I can’t believe they even let the Commanders and Cardinals game happen. Besides the horrible rush of red and burgundy that plagued my screen, both QBs are utterly unwatchable. Dobbs gets a pass, he is a horrible spot and is trying to survive in the league. Going into a season with Howell as QB1 should get Rivera fired by week 8. That dude is like Fitz with less pizazz or ability

 

Baker Mayfield plays with some fire, but he’s on his 4th team for a reason

 

Daniel Jones might be good if he could ever have time to stand up. He’s tough as they come, but man that dude makes some weird mistakes 

 

Tannehill is only starting because at least he knows to throw it forward, which I assume is what Levi’s and Willis struggle with. Because Tannehill was done last year 

 

Derek Carr is the best QB in the AFC South. That should say a lot about the state of that division

 

Stroad and Richardson showed some flashes, but Richardson looked like he belonged on the field, Stroad did not

 

Russel Wilson is toast. Jimmy G throws a nice ball, but Shanny has been trying to replace him for years for a very good reason

 

Geno was a nice story last year, but it’s apparent why he’s been a backup for 8 years. Stafford can still throw a nice ball. He could have a good year, but I’m not betting on it 

Lamar is an incredible athlete and has not evolved as a passer since his second year in the league. 
 

Mac Jones can’t be worse than he was last year. It’s unlikely he gets benched for a man named Bailey this year which I guess is an improvement 

 

Josh ended the season in a slump. He needs to get out of his funk. Even on his worst day, he is a top 6 QB

 

 

 

 

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, Beck Water said:

Now hear me out 😈

 

I started out 'salty' about the "Josh Allen most interceptions in last 2 years".  I said, said I, "but Josh has the most continuous starts of any player, let alone QB - so how does that play into it? And also, he throws a ton of passing TDs, so surely that compensates".   Since I'm a datageek, here's what I did:

-pulled regular season data from 2021, 2022, and 2023 out of pro-football-reference

-Excel pivot table to sum data by QB

-calculate interceptions, TD, 1D, and Yards per game, to normalize data for different numbers of starts

-multiply by 35 games to get it out of decimal form that is hard to interpret when we're used to thinking about integer numbers

 

This actually isn't what  I thought I was going to find.  I thought when normalized by starts, Josh Allen would NOT be leading in # of INT.  And he isn't - but he's one behind Davis Mills, tied with Sam Darnold, and one ahead of Matt Stafford and Andy Dalton.  Yikes!!!!!  That is not actually company you want your 6 yr vet, big-$$ QB to keep!  Or, I thought if he was still "up there", he would also be "up there" in passing TD to compensate.
 

So here are the data.  (Click to make it readable).  Sorted by TD/INT, Josh Allen is currently 17 on the list.  Now obviously, this isn't the be-all end-all of QB evaluation, since some of the QB listed above him by this metric, are literally unemployed at the moment (Trevor Siemian, Carson Wentz), are backups (Case Keenum) or are retired (Brady). 

I recall Mike Tomlin benching Mason Rudolph after a multi-interception game, saying "we just need someone who won't kill us" (with turnovers).  So as a metric for how much a QB contributes to scoring vs. how much a QB hurts the team by ending possessions with the other team in position to score, I thought this was worth looking at.  And by this metric, allen is below starting Rodgers, Purdy, Goff, Cousins. Mahomes, Geno Smith, Burrow, Herbert, WILSON (!!!!!), Hurts, Prescott, and Tua.

 

Thoughts?  (I can sort it by other parameters if anyone cares).

 

FWIW, my thoughts are that Josh's offensive contributions are still strong enough to allow a team to win with him provided they have a good run game and top defense.  But if we're taking Josh out of the run game, and with aging safeties and a new MLB, I'm not sure we have enough of those last two to get there.  So if we want to win, Josh, Joe Brady, and Ken Dorsey better figure it out - and fast.

 

11 hours ago, Beck Water said:

Now hear me out 😈

 

 

 

It's you, so I heard  you out.

 

No, he bears virtually nothing in common with an average QB. 

 

Yes, he throws too many INTs. That's bad. But it's not the one thing you evaluate QBs on.

 

 

 

Y

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

8 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

Oh FFS Josh is not Wentz. This is just crazy. Josh had a bad game.  Josh has always had a stinker here and there.  

 

I don't like your data because technically, Allen shouldn't have even been playing last year after week 9. He also went through an OC change that year.  For the most part Allen's bad games come from bad games here and there... not through the whole season. As in most of his bad stats happen in all at once in a few games. You are comparing data against QBs that have either had stout olines or an elite receiving crew, or both.  We have had Diggs, a revolving door oline, and guys that either don't get open, drop the ball, or do disastrous things with the ball like little dirty.  Oh and some guys that were over the hill and brought back on late season.

 

We were tied for second highest scoring offense last season.  Second only to the Chiefs. That was with one game less than everyone else not named the Bengals, who we are tied for second with.  This isn't because we had a running game.  For all of Josh's mediocrity, he managed to do that last year while practically carrying his team and with a UCL injury.  But yeah, let's compare him to Wentz.

Yeah, I highly doubt a QB going into his 6th season all of the sudden forgot how to play. Or the player with the most touchdowns ALL TIME in their first 5 seasons. Allen’s resume destroys anything Wentz has ever done in professional football and to even compare them is ludicrous. I hope Allen puts on a real clinic in 12 hours because this board is starting to get insufferable with all of the doom & gloom. Please make it stop 🙉